View Full Version : STEP 5. to push or not to push
raptor517
04-08-2005, 09:32 PM
***** Hand History for Game 1866044145 *****
400/800 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 11130880) - Fri Apr 08 21:16:22 EDT 2005
Table Step 5 983970 (Real Money) -- Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: stevesbets_ (1555)
Seat 3: jprender (1930)
Seat 4: HoytCorkins5 (2945)
Seat 6: wtf_PWND (2365)
Seat 7: vinnipuh (1205)
vinnipuh posts small blind (200)
stevesbets_ posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to wtf_PWND [ 2h, Qs ]
jprender folds.
HoytCorkins5 folds.
wtf_PWND ???????
The Yugoslavian
04-08-2005, 09:35 PM
Errrrrrrrrrm. How much money have you lost today to be taking a crack at the STEP 5s?!
What kinda tilt are we dealing with here???
/images/graemlins/grin.gif
Yugoslav
raptor517
04-08-2005, 09:36 PM
lol, only marginal tilt. i didnt do TOO bad today.. im still haunted from 2 nights ago though.. ugh. holla
TheUsher
04-08-2005, 09:36 PM
Come on Yugo. We both know that the question can't be answered because the day isn't over yet. /images/graemlins/grin.gif
The Yugoslavian
04-08-2005, 09:38 PM
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lol, only marginal tilt. i didnt do TOO bad today.. im still haunted from 2 nights ago though.. ugh. holla
[/ QUOTE ]
Will SB be pushing? I think he will....I think the $EV you gain by sitting this one out and pushing on the next is nice....the BB here pretty much has to call IMO (and the SB pretty much has to push).
Yugoslav
Voltron87
04-08-2005, 09:50 PM
If Stevebets is good fold. If he is weak push.
The Yugoslavian
04-08-2005, 10:23 PM
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lol, only marginal tilt. i didnt do TOO bad today.. im still haunted from 2 nights ago though.. ugh. holla
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Will SB be pushing? I think he will....I think the $EV you gain by sitting this one out and pushing on the next is nice....the BB here pretty much has to call IMO (and the SB pretty much has to push).
Yugoslav
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N/M I was reading the whole thing wrong...please ignore my previous post....none of it applies in the way I thought it did.
Pushing is probably the best option...unless ur opponents aren't very good or have seen u pushing all over the place recently...
As I'd assume STEP 5 players at this point are playing somewhat non-exploitable theory...I'd push.
Yugoslav
Daliman
04-08-2005, 10:51 PM
Anyone who says push here doesn't understand proper use of aggression at the bubble. You may as well push every single hand you are first in at the bubble then, cuz this is the exact same thing. You need a better reason to push than, " But they're playing tight, right, so I can steal?".
I'd need at LEAST QJs or 66 to push here.
raptor517
04-08-2005, 11:02 PM
this is not the exact same thing. you are on the button here. if you run an icm, pushing 23o (effectively, any 2), as you say is terrible, from the button here, assuming that sb will call with 55+ and A2+, BB calls with 22+ A2+ KQ and KJs, (which is probably MUCH looser than it is in reality, but im just making a point) this push is worth $45. PUSHING ANY TWO CARDS ON THIS BUTTON IS WORTH FORTY FIVE DOLLARS. that should answer any and all questions. feel free to argue, im open to it. holla
Daliman
04-08-2005, 11:05 PM
You are risking 1/2 to 2/3rds of your stack for a 1% EV gain and a HUGE Variance.
raptor517
04-08-2005, 11:07 PM
actually, if you fold here, you lose 45 dollars every single time. every bad player puts negative results on the cause of variance. of course its going to be swingy. thats how poker is. if you fold here, you are losing money. period. holla
The Yugoslavian
04-08-2005, 11:16 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone who says push here doesn't understand proper use of aggression at the bubble. You may as well push every single hand you are first in at the bubble then, cuz this is the exact same thing. You need a better reason to push than, " But they're playing tight, right, so I can steal?".
I'd need at LEAST QJs or 66 to push here.
[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure having AQs here helps as much as you think, Dali (it certainly helps though).
FWIW I plugged this into the Easty toy and even if you give both SB and BB a range of something pretty loose like: 44+,A6+,KT+,QJs+ - it's still ~+$16 push here....and this was the loosish range I felt was possible...
I'd also be surprised that STEP 5 players are loose enough to make this an actually -$EV push.
Yugoslav
Daliman
04-08-2005, 11:28 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone who says push here doesn't understand proper use of aggression at the bubble. You may as well push every single hand you are first in at the bubble then, cuz this is the exact same thing. You need a better reason to push than, " But they're playing tight, right, so I can steal?".
I'd need at LEAST QJs or 66 to push here.
[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure having AQs here helps as much as you think, Dali (it certainly helps though).
FWIW I plugged this into the Easty toy and even if you give both SB and BB a range of something pretty loose like: 44+,A6+,KT+,QJs+ - it's still ~+$16 push here....and this was the loosish range I felt was possible...
I'd also be surprised that STEP 5 players are loose enough to make this an actually -$EV push.
Yugoslav
[/ QUOTE ]
Neither one of you are getting it.
WHy am I not surprised?
Seadood228
04-08-2005, 11:37 PM
I get it, and I agree (btw me agreeing seems to be the kiss of death on this forum).
This is another situation where ICM is not perfect, and even if it is, the %EV change does not warrant this kind of risk IMO. I know it's between $10-$45, but %wise that's not enough..
Pushing is fundamentally correct, but I don't think it's the best play.
[EDIT] Where are all the responses from the guys who voted fold?!?!
Daliman
04-08-2005, 11:49 PM
[ QUOTE ]
actually, if you fold here, you lose 45 dollars every single time. every bad player puts negative results on the cause of variance. of course its going to be swingy. thats how poker is. if you fold here, you are losing money. period. holla
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Tell you what. ICM pushing every single hand on level 3 with 7 opponents, see what easty's tool says about that.
raptor517
04-08-2005, 11:50 PM
all of the guys that voted fold play the 10+1s and have no reason other than its Q2o. holla
Seadood228
04-08-2005, 11:55 PM
Hey man, I resemble that remark! I'll have you know that my 1k step ROI is 169%!
Ok so I've only played one, but I didn't play that well, and have no doubt in my mind that my numbers.. er number, is easily sustainable.. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Holla back.
[ QUOTE ]
all of the guys that voted fold play the 10+1s and have no reason other than its Q2o. holla
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I voted fold. You've got two short stacks behind you, both of whom are under a lot of pressure not to surrender the blinds, and neither of whom can really feel that he can just outlast the other. Your hand is terrible hot-and-cold as you're basically never gonna be more than a small favorite, yet you will often be a considerable dog.
It is more +$EV to fold.
The Yugoslavian
04-09-2005, 12:30 AM
What do you gain here by folding? You gotta gain something b/c you certainly are gaining something here by pushing (namely, $EV)...
So, what makes folding the most profitable play? Table image? The blinds knocking one of themselves out here a significant portion of the time? Or just the chance to push on the next hand or two vs. bigger stacks in the blinds (with the assumption that now pushing through several players will somehow net you more FE).
Yugoslav
[ QUOTE ]
What do you gain here by folding? You gotta gain something b/c you certainly are gaining something here by pushing (namely, $EV)...
So, what makes folding the most profitable play? Table image? The blinds knocking one of themselves out here a significant portion of the time? Or just the chance to push on the next hand or two vs. bigger stacks in the blinds (with the assumption that now pushing through several players will somehow net you more FE).
Yugoslav
[/ QUOTE ]
The equity you would have gained from later pushes that you miss out on those times you get called and lose. The equity you gain from a tighter table image regardless of whether you get called or not on this hand. The equity you gain from SB pushing and BB calling, a not-improbable parlay here.
BTW, how are you doing the ICM calculations? Dethgrind's page only lets me enter prizes for the top 3.
I also think ICM is overestimating your equity those times you get called and lose...you won't have FE anymore, and you'll be the next shorty in line for the blinds.
The Yugoslavian
04-09-2005, 12:37 AM
Easty's toy has the STEP 5 prize structure listed...I'm pretty sure it works for either the 2 tables or 1 tables....but not positive. So, if it's only good for the 2 table STEP 5s then I guess my #s are all worthless...
Yugoslav
Oh cool. Mebbe I should register my copy.
The Yugoslavian
04-09-2005, 12:44 AM
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Oh cool. Mebbe I should register my copy.
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Maybe...but I managed to use it to come up with the wrong (as in Dali disagrees, /images/graemlins/wink.gif ) answer!
It's also not really all that cheap....I guess I'm Mr. Moneybags /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.
Yugoslav
It's not the price that's stopping me, it's that it's not convenient enough. If he had a credit card form right on the website I would have registed by now.
The Yugoslavian
04-09-2005, 12:48 AM
[ QUOTE ]
It's not the price that's stopping me, it's that it's not convenient enough. If he had a credit card form right on the website I would have registed by now.
[/ QUOTE ]
You don't have Neteller?! How do you get your rake sent to you!?!?!
Dude, what's goin' on over there?!?!
/images/graemlins/wink.gif
Yugoslav
I don't have rakeback. I have Neteller but hate using it, it's such a pain.
The Yugoslavian
04-09-2005, 12:55 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I don't have rakeback. I have Neteller but hate using it, it's such a pain.
[/ QUOTE ]
It'd be less of a pain if you had ## comin' in every month to it from rakeback!
/images/graemlins/smile.gif
Yugoslav
curtains
04-09-2005, 01:06 AM
Before you just factor in the results of this hand, you need to figure out how often the SB and BB will goto war here. Once you come up with an estimate, then compare your EV now, compared to the EV assuming one of those guys busts or is crippled, and the other one doubles up.
Notice you'll gain quite a lot of EV when one of them busts. To completely ignore this from your calculation is very lazy. Note that if the blinds goto war and one of them busts, your EV from this is +200-220, according to eastbay's program. So it's clear we arent "throwing" away 45 dollars, as this will obviously happen sometimes, although how often is hard to say.
raptor517
04-09-2005, 01:20 AM
curtains makes a good point, and brings up another aspect to look at before pushing. IF the blinds go to war, the equity is around 200 dollars, yes. but thats assuming this happens EVERY time, which it wont. assume it occurs HALF the time, at best, then its worth 100, which makes it better than pushing.
through further analysis, it seems that both push and fold are correct plays. go figure. however, NOT pushing, and letting the small stacks kill each other could be worth more, assuming they go to war more than about 20%, which is POSSIBLE, but not guaranteed, making not pushing possibly more correct. possibly. so it appears that i made the correct play by pushing, but MAYBE there could have been a more correct play. maybe. holla
The Yugoslavian
04-09-2005, 01:41 AM
[ QUOTE ]
curtains makes a good point, and brings up another aspect to look at before pushing. IF the blinds go to war, the equity is around 200 dollars, yes. but thats assuming this happens EVERY time, which it wont. assume it occurs HALF the time, at best, then its worth 100, which makes it better than pushing.
through further analysis, it seems that both push and fold are correct plays. go figure. however, NOT pushing, and letting the small stacks kill each other could be worth more, assuming they go to war more than about 20%, which is POSSIBLE, but not guaranteed, making not pushing possibly more correct. possibly. so it appears that i made the correct play by pushing, but MAYBE there could have been a more correct play. maybe. holla
[/ QUOTE ]
POTD...for waffley, riding the fence, can't seal the deal with sis' sorority roommate posts!!!
Yugoslav
[ QUOTE ]
curtains makes a good point, and brings up another aspect to look at before pushing. IF the blinds go to war, the equity is around 200 dollars, yes. but thats assuming this happens EVERY time, which it wont. assume it occurs HALF the time, at best, then its worth 100, which makes it better than pushing.
through further analysis, it seems that both push and fold are correct plays. go figure. however, NOT pushing, and letting the small stacks kill each other could be worth more, assuming they go to war more than about 20%, which is POSSIBLE, but not guaranteed, making not pushing possibly more correct. possibly. so it appears that i made the correct play by pushing, but MAYBE there could have been a more correct play. maybe. holla
[/ QUOTE ]
raptor, my friend...you may be onto something.
yeau2
04-09-2005, 02:54 AM
Adding onto this, I think as a general rule, any hand containing a deuce or a three isnt much of a pushing hand IMO.
Daliman
04-09-2005, 03:03 AM
[ QUOTE ]
curtains makes a good point, and brings up another aspect to look at before pushing. IF the blinds go to war, the equity is around 200 dollars, yes. but thats assuming this happens EVERY time, which it wont. assume it occurs HALF the time, at best, then its worth 100, which makes it better than pushing.
through further analysis, it seems that both push and fold are correct plays. go figure. however, NOT pushing, and letting the small stacks kill each other could be worth more, assuming they go to war more than about 20%, which is POSSIBLE, but not guaranteed, making not pushing possibly more correct. possibly. so it appears that i made the correct play by pushing, but MAYBE there could have been a more correct play. maybe. holla
[/ QUOTE ]
OMFG...THE RAPTORS HAVE LEARNED TO OPEN DOORS!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
curtains makes a good point, and brings up another aspect to look at before pushing. IF the blinds go to war, the equity is around 200 dollars, yes. but thats assuming this happens EVERY time, which it wont. assume it occurs HALF the time, at best, then its worth 100, which makes it better than pushing.
through further analysis, it seems that both push and fold are correct plays. go figure. however, NOT pushing, and letting the small stacks kill each other could be worth more, assuming they go to war more than about 20%, which is POSSIBLE, but not guaranteed, making not pushing possibly more correct. possibly. so it appears that i made the correct play by pushing, but MAYBE there could have been a more correct play. maybe. holla
[/ QUOTE ]
OMFG...THE RAPTORS HAVE LEARNED TO OPEN DOORS!
[/ QUOTE ]
hahahaha
EasilyFound
04-09-2005, 09:46 AM
vinnipuh is one of those russian guys accused in another thread of collusion in these step 5's
Voltron87
04-09-2005, 11:34 AM
ROFFLE
Dali I don't think you explained yourself that well in this thread. If you were a bigger stack how would that affect your decision? If SB and BB were bigger?
raptor517
04-09-2005, 12:39 PM
yea im slowly learning, some guy is kinda like my mentor, and im TRYING to learn a thing or two from him /images/graemlins/wink.gif holla
Daliman
04-09-2005, 01:17 PM
[ QUOTE ]
ROFFLE
Dali I don't think you explained yourself that well in this thread. If you were a bigger stack how would that affect your decision? If SB and BB were bigger?
[/ QUOTE ]
To tell you the truth, I'm holding back some because the are some issues I plan on addressing when I put up my website in about a month. I'd like them to be revolutionary ideas, if not at least revelatory, and hopefully not revolting....
So you kids may have to wait.
Using my own Step5 equity cruncher :
(starting equity is 1)
ev sequence
2.26 before
2.27 b,sb folds
2.45 sb pushes and loses
2.4 sb pushes and wins
2.26 sb pushes and wins bb
2.58 b pushes and wins blinds
1.16 b pushes and loses to bb
1.45 b pushes and loses to sb
3.42 b pushes and wins against both blinds
1.73 b pushes, both blinds call, bb wins
2.09 b pushes, both blinds call, sb wins, b wins side pot
1.24 b pushes, both blinds call, sb wins, bb wins side pot
Now, it's only a question of assigning probalbilities to the different outcomes and the best play can be determined.
Alix
Apathy
04-09-2005, 02:58 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's not the price that's stopping me, it's that it's not convenient enough. If he had a credit card form right on the website I would have registed by now.
[/ QUOTE ]
You don't have Neteller?! How do you get your rake sent to you!?!?!
Dude, what's goin' on over there?!?!
/images/graemlins/wink.gif
Yugoslav
[/ QUOTE ]
I get my rakeback put straight into my empire account, I haven't certified my netteler account either.
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