Student's hand. Keeping the bubble alive.

[Jman28]

I teach a few guys how to play poker. This hand is from the bubble of a $10+1. I talked to the student about it.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t310)
Hero (t5110)
SB (t860)
BB (t1720)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls t310 (All-In), <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t5110 (All-In)</font>

His reason for making the play was to have the other players fold and to go heads up against the all in player and preferably lose. This should usually only cost him t220 and if the bubble is kept alive, he'll make t600 on his next steal, and probably more on future steals.

While I like the way he is thinking as far as keeping the bubble alive in creative ways, I don't think I agree with the play.

First of all, if the Hero folds, the SB will likely fold IMO because of how short he is. He can't risk busting on this hand and should let the BB take care of the short stack.

The BB rates to have a hand not much better than the Hero's, so it's just about as likely for the small stack to stay alive vs. the BB as vs. the Hero.

The only benefits I see to pushing are :
- cases where the SB would have called to see the flop, decreasing the chance that UTG stays alive.
- the fact that pushing gives UTG a few more chips to stick around longer.

Besides the small reward aspect, I think this play has some risk. One of the other stacks could wake up with a hand and take a decent chunk of the Hero's stack. Also, the Hero's image for later steals is now poor because everyone will see him push T6s with no chance to win the blinds. They may think he's crazy.

I'm coming to you guys for help. What do you think of the play?

Thanks.

-Jman28

[pooh74]

I agree with you for many of the reasons you laid out. There is also a sort of tipping point where keeping the bubble alive mentality loses its benefit i think, where stacks are so small theyre going in on everyhand...I like to lay back at that point and watch them just eat eachother alive.

[raptor517]

i agree with pooh here. im a huge advocate of keeping the bubble alive with ONE short stack so u can rob the other medium stacks. however, in this situation, there are 2 short stacks and one short/medium stack. its not worth tripling up this small stack and losing yer HUGE edge in chips. its a good idea, but not in this situation. holla

[The Yugoslavian]

I think the SB comes along for the ride too frequently to make this worth it. In fact, it's in the SB interest to call here to make sure the shorty busts....he won't be calling allin behind you all the time, but a significant portion at least.

Also, if even the plan works, the next round UTG will only have 1130 chips I think...this isn't enough for two rounds of blinds so he still can't wait for the other stack to just bust...unless both short stacks are still playing uber-tight even though they're about to bust (I've seen this before but not very often at all...and not at the $11 level) I'm not sure the best case scenario for your friends plan is even a good thing.

I fold and let the SB and BB knock UTG out with a chance that the BB can knock out both sending me into HU after BB has most likely gotten used to folding a bunch of hands.

Yugoslav

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the SB comes along for the ride too frequently to make this worth it. In fact, it's in the SB interest to call here to make sure the shorty busts....he won't be calling allin behind you all the time, but a significant portion at least.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not so sure that it's in the SB's best interest to call with many hands here.

I am even less sure that the SB will call the push with many hands. I think he's folding all but the best.

-Jman28

[raptor517]

i dont think hes folding all but the best. all he has to do is beat one of you and he stays alive. if he has a GOOD hand he will be in there. doesnt have to be a GREAT hand. holla

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont think hes folding all but the best. all he has to do is beat one of you and he stays alive. if he has a GOOD hand he will be in there. doesnt have to be a GREAT hand. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I'm trying to say...

I also wouldn't be surprised if the $11 wackos decide there are other reasons to call....after all, calling *is* an important step towards self-actualization, /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Yugoslav

[Newt_Buggs]

There's a lot of players at the $10 that wont think deep enough to fold a decent hand short stacked to get into the money. At the $20s I've had a lot of players make some terrible calls when I've been bullying people as the big stack on the bubble. They'll just recognize that you are bullying, get a decent hand and decide to call since they figure they are ahead without considering the consequences of busting out. Showing a push with 106s will make them think you are an idiot, making them more likely to call future pushes, and will flat out piss a lot of people off, further encouraging them to call your future steals and hurt both of you.

[curtains]

By the way if I do push here, I want to win the hand. Whatever theoretical advantages you gain aren't worth almost 1000 in chips. You have all but 2800 in chips, and you are saying youd rather not win 1000 right now just to keep the bubble alive. It's completely absurd to want to lose this hand after pushing.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]

By the way if I do push here, I want to win the hand. Whatever theoretical advantages you gain aren't worth almost 1000 in chips. You have all but 2800 in chips, and you are saying youd rather not win 1000 right now just to keep the bubble alive. It's completely absurd to want to lose this hand after pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point.

That said, with the benefits of pushing and winning, as well as the benefits or marginal loss of pushing and losing, is the push the right play?

[curtains]

Maybe....its always an idea in these spots because you have good chances of gettign 600 dead money in the pot, while risking only about 200 in chips. Most hands would be automatic pushes here if you knew the blinds would fold. Some blinds may call because they have shorty outstacked, but I find this is pretty rare.

And again, if you lose, you still retain some advantages. However if you push, you surely hope to win the pot. I think pushing is quite reasonable here. If the blinds will fold a large % of the time, it should be nearly automatic IMO. You then have the chance to win 1k chips while risking about 200. Those are absurd odds, and your hand of T6s is a reasonable hand here.