raise this weird turn bet?

[dark_horse]

these kinds of bets are always a bit jarring, never too sure what to do about them. BB cold called 3 bets PF, so.. does he really have a five? was he slowplaying a set and filled up on the turn, wanting me to raise? i know reads are important. my reads are much more accurate when i'm playing b&m, where my results are generally better.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Hero posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero (poster) 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (15.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP3 folds.

Turn: (8.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (10.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.75 BB

[itsmesteve]

Without a read, its definitely tough. I'd say your line is OK as a default. He may not give you credit for an Ace, and may have a weaker one himself, or a Jack, or mid pp, a five, tough to say. I think raising the turn probably folds weaker hands than yours while exposing you to a three bet from a hand that crushes you. Checking also lets him bet the river, earning you one more BB when ahead. The only way I raise this is if I'd fold to a 3 bet or him calling and leading a non-ace, non-five river. I wouldn't make that laydown without a read, so that's why i like your line.

[AlmightyJay]

I would expect an average player to check/raise this turn if they had a 5. Still, I think you want to see a showdown, and want to see it cheap. I like calling down, rather than raising. It also keeps him in the hand if he is bluffing.

[wyoak]

i don't see raising as a good option on the turn. it costs the same to get to a showdown with no risk of being 3-bet.
also he didn't coldcall PF.

[otnemem]

I have a weird feeling that he has a weak ace, and is pretty confident that if you have an ace, you might be splitting on the paired five (w/ jack kicker). He's probably hoping you have a pair worse than aces or a split pot.

[Redd]

Disclaimer: I'm GrunchCan's bitch and am posting in the dark.

I'd call the turn. If he doesn't have a 5, then let him keep bluffing into you on the riv. If he is donking up the 5, you lose the least.

I'd also then call the riv, since if you'll raise he'll just fold most losing hands or 3-bet a winning one.

[Wetdog]

He might have a 5, he might have A5, he might have 55. Your 3bet PF might have slowed him down on the flop, the 5 on the turn waking him up.

[dark_horse]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't see raising as a good option on the turn. it costs the same to get to a showdown with no risk of being 3-bet.
also he didn't coldcall PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

He certainly did coldcall PF. He called two raises cold from the BB.

[KaiShin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i don't see raising as a good option on the turn. it costs the same to get to a showdown with no risk of being 3-bet.
also he didn't coldcall PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

He certainly did coldcall PF. He called two raises cold from the BB.

[/ QUOTE ]
He was a blind, so its kind of a semi-coldcall. Not a true coldcall.

I want to show my hand down, so I'm just calling here. I don't like raising and folding to a 3-bet.

[Somekid]

I would've raised the turn and folded to a 3-bet. Although I have no idea whats going on. It seems that if he'd made a full he'd go for a C/R on the turn. So he's probably trying to represent three 5's.

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]
I would've raised the turn and folded to a 3-bet. Although I have no idea whats going on. It seems that if he'd made a full he'd go for a C/R on the turn. So he's probably trying to represent three 5's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Problem with that is, we want to see a showdown with this hand.

I like your line vs a blind.

[Shillx]

Everyone here is telling that he doesn't have trips. This is really bad advice imo. I would bet into you on the turn with trips just about every time. I do it because I know you are an aggressive player and will likely raise (so I can go for 3-bets). A bad player will do it because he is too timid to check/raise. Calling down here is by far the best play as we encourage him to bluff if that is what he is doing. If he has a five we save ourselves money from the dreaded STOP AND GO that bad players pull with good hands. So instead of 3-betting and letting us off the hook with trips, he will commonly just call and then bet the river (and then we feel compelled to call that bet as well). It is a actually a brilliant play to use against a thinking player who is capeable of folding to a 3-bet but who is content on showing down.

Brad

[dark_horse]

i agree, and when i hit my big hand against a thinking, aggressive player i typically bet out instead of going for a c/r.

[cmwck]

A read would really help. If he's not the type to bet random scare cards with little or nothing, you should probably call down and bet the river if checked to.

[cmwck]

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone here is telling that he doesn't have trips. This is really bad advice imo. I would bet into you on the turn with trips just about every time. I do it because I know you are an aggressive player and will likely raise (so I can go for 3-bets). A bad player will do it because he is too timid to check/raise. Calling down here is by far the best play as we encourage him to bluff if that is what he is doing. If he has a five we save ourselves money from the dreaded STOP AND GO that bad players pull with good hands. So instead of 3-betting and letting us off the hook with trips, he will commonly just call and then bet the river (and then we feel compelled to call that bet as well). It is a actually a brilliant play to use against a thinking player who is capeable of folding to a 3-bet but who is content on showing down.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

If he checks the river, do we bet or take a free showdown? He would call us with a worse ace or a jack. If check-raised on the river, we could safely fold, right?

[No_Stake]

i also put this player on a weak ace, however if you do not raise this hand how do you ever get your AF numbers above 2?

[Shillx]

If he checks the river, do we bet or take a free showdown?

Bet.

He would call us with a worse ace or a jack.

The way this hand was played...yes to both.

If check-raised on the river, we could safely fold, right?

Yes. However you might want to call as this hand might be noteworthy.

Brad

[dark_horse]

Again, I was confused. PokerEdge told me villian's postflop AF was 1.06 with a small sample of 193 hands.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8 BB

[Shillx]

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, T.
2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls

Why did you just call preflop? Playing this guy HU looks w/ position looks like a good idea here.

Brad

[dark_horse]

you're right, i did consider raising PF. my PFR is actually damn high and i've been trying to cut down /images/graemlins/smile.gif (it's somewhere between 8% and 9% after 11k hands of 1/2)

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
my PFR is actually damn high and i've been trying to cut down /images/graemlins/smile.gif (it's somewhere between 8% and 9% after 11k hands of 1/2)

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not impressed. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Why are you trying to lower your PFR dude? You shouldn't be trying to manipulate your game to fit some kind of blueprint. Just make +EV moves and go from there. Raising ATs after a non-impressive limper is surely the correct play if you did it an infinate number of times (you have a better hand on average, position, initiative, etc).

FWIW, my PFR is 9.8% in the 2/4 game, but I don't have a goal for where it should be. I just raise in spots where I think I can squeeze value from. And they are aplenty... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Brad