AK first hand

[Scuba Chuck]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t800)
UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t800)
UTG+2 (t800)
MP1 (t800)
MP2 (t800)
MP3 (t800)
CO (t800)
Button (t800)
Hero (t800)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t30</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t122.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, Hero ..... runs to poker prophecy

Poker prophecy says this guy is a 25% winner. Hero still folds. Thoughts?

[1C5]

Why do you even look at that crap program's results when we know it doesn't record 1/2 our results anyway? Or for anyone good, they may be in a downswing and anyone bad might be lucky when that program decides to track results. Seems like a useless program to me, you will be much better served using Playerview combined with PT I think.

[1C5]

Converter is missing something but I assume he pushed all in?

[spentrent]

Converter has you betting change /images/graemlins/frown.gif so I'll assume that you made it somewhere between 100 and 150 to go? You can fold here and still have a reasonable stack.

As for the software you mentioned, I think it's half-baked at best and a steaming crock of [censored] at worst. Even if it WERE accurate I'd make the same play.

~650+ chips is no disaster in Level 1. Just means you have to make one or two steals earlier then you normally would to be equipped for Level 4. That's my take anyhow.

[1C5]

I fold also unless I have seen him play AJ or AQ like that previously.

[ColdestCall]

I would fold unless I had some good reason to believe this guy would make that play with a worse ace.

On a related topic, I haven't really been playing all that much lately, or using Poker Prophecy as a result, but it seems to me that a lot of the objections I hear raised to Poker Prophecy have to do with what percentage of results it captures. I tend to think that so long as the sample size is large, it is irrelevant what percentage of results it captures so long as it is safe to assume that it misses at random (that is, it's misses contain a representative sample of wins and losses). I do not see any reason to believe that the games it fails to record will be anything other than random, therefore if it has a record of several hundred games for a given player, I treat its information as reliable. If it has a tiny sample size for a given player, its information is not likely to be relevant whether it is capturing 100% or 10% of results.

Don't mean to hijack, Chuck, so sorry if this is out of place. Just a thought that has occurred to me a few times....

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
I tend to think that so long as the sample size is large, it is irrelevant what percentage of results it captures so long as it is safe to assume that it misses at random (that is, it's misses contain a representative sample of wins and losses).

[/ QUOTE ]

You make a good point but I don't see how it can be trusted; ie, NOTHING is safe to assume about it. Why should anything be safe to assume about it?

I think that it's a travesty that someone could even consider selling something that isn't halfway complete... AND it's completely unverifiable. BTW, the guy who runs it seems to be a scumbag. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Board=singletable&amp;Number=1980371 &amp;Forum=,f22,&amp;Words=prophecy%20fired&amp;Searchpage=1&amp;L imit=25&amp;Main=1980371&amp;Search=true&amp;where=bodysub&amp;Nam e=&amp;daterange=1&amp;newerval=&amp;newertype=&amp;olderval=2&amp;old ertype=w&amp;bodyprev=#Post1980371)

[Seadood228]

Pretty easy fold IMO, regardless of what Poker Prophecy says.

[Scuba Chuck]

Personally, I'm beginning to like pokerprophecy as long as their is a sample size of at least 50.

I have a new PP handle, and it's recording at least 60-70% of the games that I play. And the ITM numbers look reasonably close. It actually has my numbers 2% better than what they really are.

Anyway, for the players who have 25% win rates or lower, I've found that it's a useful tool.

[Apathy]

Honestly... I'm really drunk so.. grain of salt but... I would call all in against the idiots that play at this level.

If Poker prophecy says they have 25% itm with more then 50 games recorded they suck.

Which means you can expect to be dominating then some portion of the time.

You can make use of the early chip lead in many ways /images/graemlins/laugh.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

Bwahahahaha

[microbet]

I guess it's doing ok with me. It reports one of my sn's 14% too low and the other about 12% too high.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I would call all in against the idiots that play at this level.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm tending to agree here (on the $55s). The funny thing is that I would fold to a $33er here. Go figure.

Scuba
who played 19 $55 SNGs last night (34% ROI /images/graemlins/grin.gif). Who needs those damn $33s anyway.

[RobGW]

I think if you raise PF you should call the all in. And if you raise PF you should raise even more to discourage action. I don't think $122 is going to cut it. Alternatively just call the raise PF and take it from there.

[valenzuela]

I like seeing the flop with AK