wsop step 2 hand

[willie]

down to 5, top 2 move on 3-7 reroll step 1....

blinds are 150/300, i am chipleading with 2500 chips after posting.

second stack pushes from the button, i have him covered by 60 chips.


I have AK offsuit. do you call this?


i know typically you don't want to tangle with anothre big stack but with the nature of this payout being so topheavy, and the other 3 stacks within closing distance- all around 1k-1800 you're going to need more chips here.

[multifast1]

I call in a heartbeat because of the structure and the closeness of everyone's stack. A double up here would be HUGE and help in making one of the two spots.

[prunch]

I'd have to say to fold. Although more then likely you are at worst 45% underdog to whatever he has (doubtful he has KK or AA). Best case scenerio is he pushed with a lower Ace (AK/AQ/A10) but he could have pushed with anything from QQ to 22. personally I think there a lot more hands that he would have pushed with there a pretty mucha coin flip, so putting your whole tournament on the line for that seems a bit foolish. I'd wait for a better spot especially if you feel you can out play the people at the table but thats just my opinion

[Voltron87]

Call. I'm ruling out AA-JJ, and this is a move made by AQ/AJ who have a hand but aren't confident in postflop play against a big stack. Sometimes it will be a 50 50 and sometimes you'll be a big favorite. So call.

[tricolore]

Call.
You are probably in a coin flip, and given the structure of the payout, it not that bad.
I think that if you are not in that coin flip situation, you are way more often dominating than dominated.
Overall play is EV$ +

[willie]

i called, he had JJ, i don't improve



add insult to injury, i have KK in the small blind with 60 posted against his aq the next hand- which if i had folded the ak i may have been able to stack him with.


sigh.

[adanthar]

I would call, then, if I lost, never play one of these sats again because they're so horribly -EV it isn't funny.

(In all seriousness, if you just play the regular Steps you will probably win 13,500 on FAR FAR FAR less money than it will take you to win a seat in these)

[Voltron87]

I haven't looked at these in detail, what's the structure?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
down to 5, top 2 move on 3-7 reroll step 1....

blinds are 150/300, i am chipleading with 2500 chips after posting.

second stack pushes from the button, i have him covered by 60 chips.


I have AK offsuit. do you call this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this would be an interesting post for a general SNG. IMO, there's only one reason to consider folding. Survival Equity (Irie term). If you didn't have the top stack and playing 2nd stack, this would be an autocall for me.

If the blinds were higher, this would be a call. If you were 3rd or 4th stack, this would be a call. If you had 2nd stack covered by 600 chips, this would be a call.


But this is a unique circumstance. If the table is tight enough, that your stack carries enough weight to continue stealing, folding here is fine. I don't have an answer for you, as I am not sitting at the table, nor know more about your game. But I can recommend that folding (playing weak/tight) here is not a bad move.

As usual, flame away.
Scuba

[prunch]

i actually put him on JJ, thats why I would fold.

[willie]

[ QUOTE ]
i actually put him on JJ, thats why I would fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

meh, i think you have him on an overly tight range of hands, i could be wrong though.


i'm still on the fence as to whether or not i should have folded this though, it's a bad spot to be in.

carrying your folding idea further, you'd fold JJ if he had pushed on the button?

[multifast1]

gawd, I love hindsight! I just now put him on JJ also. What a read.

Anyway, the fact that everyone was close to equal in chips (within a few BB anyway), the blinds were already pretty high and climbing, and only top 2 effectively paid out. Beginning next blind level, it's gonna be a complete crap shoot.

Only two hands have you dominated (AA or KK) and if he had those do you think he's push in that situation? Most all other hands he could have you're a coin flip to have a dominating lead on everyone, and even a decent chance you're dominating him.

I'm sticking to my guns here. Auto-call. I can't see too many more opportunities coming quickly to double up. With 5 people still left, you'll be short stack in 3rd place soon with only 2 paying if you don't make a move soon. Okay, okay... now that I put you on getting KK the next hand I take everything back! LOL.