Pot Odds VS Outs

[texasholdemnut]

I started playing a 3-6 live game about 6 weeks ago, I have played online for a few years, and have done reasonably well online, but I am struggling in the live game. I have read over and over about pot odds and making your outs, and the math still goes way over my head, even though math was one of my best subjects in school, 48 million years ago..LOL..anyway, I have figured out that the game I'm in is passive, the pots are big, lots of callers with any two cards, but my AK suited gets taken out everytime by some chump with J2 that shouldn't even be in the hand. Is there any easy way to count the odds quickly without having to have a masters degree from MIT?? I guess I'm just looking for a simpler way to do it.

[deacsoft]

I think this article by Lou Krieger is exactly what you need. I hope it helps.



Pot Odds Made Easy (http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/?a_id=13913&m_id=88)

[texasholdemnut]

Thanks, I think the chart will help. It seems like such a huge math problem to be soved in a very short time, especially in a limit game where the chips are flying.

[SheridanCat]

Well, let's run the problem real quick and see what happens.

The flop has just come, and you're in late position. There are a number of players in, say 6 for two bets each. You raised and the limpers called, the SB folded and the BB called. 12 bets in the pot (.5 bets were lost to the rake).

BB Opponent: ?? - after the flop he bets out and you put him on top pair with mediocre kicker taking a stab at the large pot.

Weirdly everyone folds to you holding A/images/graemlins/heart.gifK/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Flop: T/images/graemlins/heart.gif6/images/graemlins/heart.gifJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif

This is great for you, obviously, but you're currently behind. However, you have a lot of outs. What are they? Any heart and any queen will probably win the hand for you, and an ace or king is probably also good since you don't think he has much for a kicker. So:

Any heart: 9 outs since you've seen 4 of the 13 hearts
Any queen: 4 outs since you've seen none
Any Ace: 3, but he might have AJ, so let's discount this to 1.5 outs
Any King: 3, but he might have KJ, so make this 1.5 outs.

Total outs: 13 excellent outs, 3 possibles, for 16 outs.

There are 47 unseen cards after the flop, of which 16 help you. 47/16 = 2.9, meaning you'll win 1 time in 2.9 tries, or 1.9 times you'll lose and 1 time you'll win. So 1.9:1 become the odds against you catching a card that helps you on the turn.

You're facing a bet with a pot of 13 bets in it. You have to call 1 bet to see the turn. The pot odds are 13:1 on your call - you have to pay 1 bet to win 13. Since your the odds of making your hand are 1.9:1 you have an easy call since 1.9:1 is much better than 13:1.

Typically in a loose live game you won't end up heads up like that, so you have to take into account whether there might be a raise behind you because that could cut your pots odds. Let's say in the scenario above there's a player to act after you. The early player bets, it's folded to you. You think the player behind you might raise (a tell maybe) so you have to consider that you'll be putting in two bets to see the next card. Your pot odds would be 17:2 ( 13 in the pot, the early bet, the late raise and the early call makes it 17 ), which is only 8.5:1, but still good enough to call with your 1.9:1 shot.

In this situation there are also effective odds to consider since there is more than one card to come and implied odds since you have to take into account how many additional bets you might win from your opponent if you hit your hand.

On the practical side, doing these calculations at the table isn't usually going to happen. Knowing the odds for numbers of outs and then knowing the pot size is usually what you'll be thinking about. And even then you'll be roughly approximating based on incomplete information. That's how it works for me anyway; I'm sure very number-centric people can do the calculations on the fly.

Does that make sense or just confuse the issue more? As with any of my math/stats posts, I could be off-base since that's not really my thing.

Regards,

T

Beginner's Poker FAQ (http://www.pokergeek.com/faq/beginners_faq.html)

[OrianasDaad]

Pot odds need to be greater than the odds of making your hand to call.

Pot odds is the ratio of bets you are putting into the pot vs the number of bets you expect to win. Calling a $3 bet in a pot that is already $15 gives you 15:3, or 5:1 pot odds. If the bet were $6, then you'd be getting 15:6 (Winning $15 by putting in $6), which works out to 2.5:1 pot odds.

Once you know your pot odds, you need to figure your chance of making your hand, and is a bit trickier to figure.

The formula for that is: (Unseen Cards/Outs)-1.

9 outs on flop: (47/9)-1 = 4.2:1 (basic flush draw)
4 outs on flop: (47/4)-1 - 10.75:1 (basic gutshot draw)
5 outs on flop: (47/5)-1 = 8.4:1 (draw to 2pair/trips)
15 outs on flop: (47/15)-1 = 2.1:1 (Open-ended straight flush draw)

Now you have two ratios. X:1 for your pot odds, and Y:1 for your odds to make your hand.

If X is greater or equal to Y, then you can call profitably.

As you get more experienced, you'll come to learn things like implied odds, reverse implied odds, and pot equity, discounted outs, etc. which are all related to the basic pot-odds considerations.

Once you get the method down, it's not too difficult. There's also several charts online that will break down your number of outs into odds, so you can memorize the ones you will most likely see (between 4 and 8 outs is most common), but it's still good to know the method.

[deacsoft]

Between Mr. Krieger (via myself), SheridanCat, and OrianasDaad you should have enough information to understand the basics, and then some, of pot odds. I just want to bring up one more very important factor when dealing with pot odds. That factor is position.

Being out of position can potentially and significantly reduce your pot odds in certain situations. Being last to act in the round makes pot odds as easy as they can get. But what happens if you're third to act with three players left to act behind you and the first player to act has just bet? The second player to act has just folded, and now the action is on you. Before calculating your pot odds you must determine the chance of a player behind you raising if you call. You must also determine the likelihood of the opening better re-raising (3-betting) if a player behind you does, in fact, raise.

I know this may be a little much for the beginners forum, but I just didn't want to give the impression that pot odds were simply the amount of the pot versus your outs (or something similar). It is a factor that can be often overlooked by even more experienced players. Position, like in nearly every other aspect of hold'em, is crucial.

[texasholdemnut]

ok, I'm confused now LOL thanks cat

[Benoit]

A quick cheat is the 2/4 rule. It's not totally accurate, but it's good on the fly. It just means multiply the number of outs by 4 if you want the % chance of getting your hand with two cards to come. If you want the % chance with one card to come, then multiply the number of outs by 2. So you have 4 to a flush and one card left to come, so that's 9 outs (13 to a suit and 4 are already out) multiplied by 2 is 18%. It's actually about 20% or 4 to 1 odds in that case, but it's close enough until you can memorize the actual numbers.

[elmitchbo]

in a passive game having players act behind you can be a good thing. you can often times have more faith in them all calling than one of them raising. if, for example, you need 5:1 to make a call but the pot is laying 4:1 with 3 more players to act... depending on the action you could call and assume that at least 1 of the three remaining players will also call to complete your 5:1.

to the OP... just memorize the odds for the most common situations. it's good to understand where the numbers come from, but most players just have the odds memorized so they don't have to waste time calculating at the table.