Good aggression, or bad agression

[A_PLUS]

UB 8K 30+3 last night.

I am crippled 1/2 hour into the tournament when AJ busts my KK with a miracle Ace on the river. I am left with 250TCs. I play my best short stacked poker to date, and build my stack back to 3200 (apx average) with under 150 left to play. (75-150 blinds)

I am moved to a new table, so my reads are gone.
The 1st 4 hands, there has yet to be a flop, and twice BB winning uncontested.

Hand 5: I steal from MP opening for 450.
Hand 6: 3 limpers, 2nd to act leads into a J high flop and takes it.
Hand 7: I open for 500 with 77 from UG+1.

Button calls(1650TC before call). The only thing I know about him, is that he didnt steal on two occasions when he had an unopened pot from late position. My guess is weak tight with a big pair AA-TT, or AK-AJ. But that is just a guess, really no idea.

Flop(1225) Ac, 4d, 6c.

My thoughts: This guy probably lays down a pocket pair, and maybe AJ if I push him all in. Im getting over 2/1 on the play, and feel safe that he will fold 33% of the hands he could possibly have. I push.

So my question is, was this play necessary? It looked like the table was weak tight, and I could probably win a lot of small pots uncontested. Is it it worth a marginal play, when you are in a good situation?

The aspect of my game that I am struggling with most, is when to hit the brakes. Especially when there are easier ways to get chips.

[schwza]

do you have the 7c? it helps a good bit if you run into Ax. the big question is whether he'll fold a hand like JJ (if he for some reason didn't raise with it). there's no way he's folding AJ, unless he's an idiot.

[ QUOTE ]
Im getting over 2/1 on the play, and feel safe that he will fold 33% of the hands he could possibly have. I push.


[/ QUOTE ]

even if this is true, it doesn't make a push better than a check. it only makes it better than a fold. he might let you check it down the whole way and win.

it's hard to know what to do, as villain makes a horrible play by flat-calling here, so it's hard to know what to put him on. if i have the 7c, i push. otherwise, i think i still push but i'm a lot less happy about it.

[gumpzilla]

Assuming the range you put him on is good, you're drawing to two outs if he calls you. So everything hinges on whether you have as much of a chance at folding him as you think you do. Let's say he'll fold TT-QQ, which is about as much as I'm going to believe he'll fold of your initial range in these circumstances. That's 18 possible hands. He'll play AA, KK, and AK-AJ. That's 45 hands. So he's going to be folding 18/63 hands, which is slightly over 25%.
If he calls you with this range, you're drawing to two outs, which is going to be awful.

If you can move him off of KK (which I doubt you can), then I think this becomes a marginally correct (it might be marginally bad, but it's close) chip play. As is, I think this is a slight loser chipwise. Since you feel that you have been stealing fairly easily, I think this is a pretty clear cut case for shutting down, given the range you put him on.

[Jibbs]

[ QUOTE ]
If you can move him off of KK (which I doubt you can)

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm interested in why you think he won't move off KK but will move off QQ-TT. KK is in the same place as the rest if he believes you have the A

[A_PLUS]

I dont like the KK assumption either.

My reasoning:
If the player si tight enough only to call with TT-AA Ak-AJ. You should probably assume he is aware enough to see that KK and QQ are essentially the same hand here.

If you think that the player will call with KK, then I would argue for adjusting the range of hands downward. Including smaller PP, and possible KQs-KJs, ATs.

This is a 30$ tournament, seeing a player cold call with KQ KJ is not necessarily very uncommon. It is full of these typical "tight players" that cant understand why they dont win, when they only play two face cards, and always think they are stronger than they are.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm interested in why you think he won't move off KK but will move off QQ-TT. KK is in the same place as the rest if he believes you have the A

[/ QUOTE ]

But it's in a better place if he thinks you can be making a push with a hand that doesn't contain an A. With TT, I'd hate to call and get shown JJ, for example. If the original poster has been playing fairly aggressively, I'm not going to put him on just an ace, necessarily. So maybe QQ or JJ might call as well, but I think they are probably a little more iffy. I also think that people generally find it much harder to fold KK than QQ or JJ, but perhaps I'm wrong here.

[schwza]

of course villain will value KK more highly than TT.

[gumpzilla]

I don't think anybody is arguing that particular detail, it's just a question of whether he can be moved off of KK or not. I say no, they say yes.

EDIT: I was curious how close KK and QQ were here. Let's say he puts you on a range of any broadway, 99-77. Given that board, PokerStove gives me

KK - 69.1%
AA-77, AK-AT, KQ-KT, QJ-QT, JT - 31.9%

QQ - 62.9%
same range - 37.1%

Clearly he'd be a fool not to call if he put you on this range with either holding, but there's more difference between KK and QQ than one might expect if one assumes a broader range.