T9s and a UTG blind steal.

[Entity]

7-handed and I'm bored. Normally I fold this but sometimes I raise it, mostly for Shania value. The table was running REALLY tight and most of the players are decent, but not great, postflop players.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (3.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>...

[droolie]

Did you go looking through your DB looking for T9s hands? LOL!

I fold this pf. I think you're too far away to steal and are in rough shape if you get a caller at a tight table.

I like the flop bet.

Are you check/folding the turn? I'd probably fire another barrel here though I tend to spew HU.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you check/folding the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, against this Button I'm check-folding the turn.

Rob

[Talex]

So blah blah, table selection, blah blah preflop raise huwah? Anyway, after that I think leading the flop into a tight player sounds good, especially with a backdoor flush and an inside straight draw. I think if I was continuing with this though I'd bet again on the turn. As for the river bet; after checking through the turn does he really fold 20% of the time?

-Tim

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Did you go looking through your DB looking for T9s hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I just like looking at hands that were misplayed but have interesting streets and decisions postflop. I make odd raises like this every now and then, and it's not a huge error to be doing this 7-handed regardless, as long as you're aware of table conditions, your image, and other things when doing it. That doesn't make it right as a default play or a play I'd encourage, but it does change things up. In this game, JTs is a pretty easy raise for me 7-handed and I don't lose a ton between J-high and T-high in the way they'll play postflop.

Rob

[mmbt0ne]

How does Button think you play? If you're LAG, I don't think he's folding more than 27% of the time. Of course, there's no other way you're winning this hand.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
How does Button think you play? If you're LAG, I don't think he's folding more than 27% of the time. Of course, there's no other way you're winning this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he calls me with good Aces, but he would've 3-bet me with most of those. He doesn't check the turn with a Queen but might with a hand like 99 or 77 or whatnot. He doesn't fold those on the river.

He'll fold busted flush draws and hands like JTs and other suited broadways. I thought it was a pretty interesting bluff.

Rob

[Duerig]

I don't trust my postflop play nearly well enough to raise this UTG. That being said, I like the way you played every street until the river. Did you bet this river because you think you might have the best hand? To get the button to fold? Because you were going to call a bet anyway? This river bet is really confusing to me.

EDIT: ok i just read some of the thread and it makes more sense.

[mmbt0ne]

Alright, I'm trying to come up with a range of hands that he cold calls on the button.

Like you said, he 3-bets good aces, so we'll say AJs-AKs and AQo, AKo are out. As are TT-AA (TT could be cold-called by some, but a lot 3bet it, and you have a T, so that's a lot less likely). I can't give him a pair below 7s, and 8s would've found a bet/raise somewhere. I think some weak suited broadways could show up too. Q's bet the turn, so they're out.

So it breaks down to: 77, 99, ATs, KJs, KTs, JTs.

Even if he just lays down the broadways, that's a lot of hands he's folding.

ATs - 3
77 - 6
99 - 3
KTs - 3
KJs - 4
JTs - 3
total=22
22*(0.27)=5.94 (6 calling hands to make money we'll say)

ATs he calls, other suiteds he folds. Now, he has to fold 77 or 99 6 of the 9 times he has them to make it +EV. I think 77 is pretty likely to fold with an 8 and a Q on the board. 99, I'm not so sure.
So, either those are the numbers, or we have to expand his range of cards.

[Entity]

I don't think he 3-bets AQ and AJ -- he probably coldcalls with them. He 3-bets AK and JJ-AA. I think he'd coldcall with any pocket pair 66+ and a fair range of unsuited and suited broadway hands. I don't think he calls the river with AT, but would with AK. AJ is a tossup, so maybe that's a 50%'er. Hands like KJ and KTs are possible from this guy as well.

Rob

[mmbt0ne]

Well, I'm not gonna run through the calculations again, but given a range of hands that wide, and how close it was before, I think it's a pretty easy bet. Especially when he doesn't bet the turn.

[SteveL91]

You bet the river because it's likely the only chance you have of winning the hand. Given the villain's line, he probably had a club draw or maybe something like JT for the gutshot. Regardless, unless the villain has seen the hero getting out of hand, he's not calling that river bet with his busted draw. With something like AK, I think you may be able to check the river just because it's quite possible it's better than the villain's hand so making him fold isn't quite as vital; with T high, it is.