'cuz I'm cold...cold callin'.

[Entity]

UTG raiser is a decent multitabling TAG who folds too much, too easily. BB is also TAG. Rest of the players are pretty bad. How close is a river raise if I think BB can fold black Aces and I don't quite know how to interpret MP's bet (it's probably a donkbet 70% of the time and a flush ~30%, from what I've seen of him).

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP calls, CO calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (15.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG folds, MP calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls, MP calls, CO calls.

Turn: (16.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (20.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, CO folds, Hero calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 23.25 BB

[SomethingClever]

There's no straight possible on this board.

I still raise the river 100% of the time.

[RunDownHouse]

Does anyone think a turn raise is out of line? I'd be tempted to do that since I also picked up a gutshot.

[splashpot]

I like the turn raise. You have a pot equity edge unless you think one of the callers will fold. I also raise the river 100% of the time. If I'm beat by a bigger flush then so be it.

Edit: Or were you going for the overcall? Hmm...I suppose I could see the overcall being worth it. If MP indeed has a bigger flush, you'd be 3-bet. But then again, you don't have the guarantee that BB is going to overcall.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone think a turn raise is out of line? I'd be tempted to do that since I also picked up a gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

BB 3-betting would kill your odds. if he doesn't, then you won't be able to raise the field when you spike a J or flush and BB bets the river (nearly always for the J, apparently not for the flush).

[freehat]

I think just calling is better on the turn, since you will be able to get those bets in when you hit your flush or gutshot, and can possibly pick-up 2 BB's from each player on the river. And when you miss on the river which will happen around 70-75% of the time you can just fold.

[chief444]

Yeah. Raising the turn here is a bad play.

edit...To me the river call looks OK, given that MP coldcalled on the flop. Certainly played it like a flush. Although KQ or some other two pair is possible also. I could see a raise. But It seems close to me.

[RunDownHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
BB 3-betting would kill your odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why? The pot is huge and the two caught in the middle have been described as "pretty bad." Obviously if you think one or both will fold you'd be more inclined to just call. But you can't just assume they'll both fold. Say you know one will call and think there's a 60% chance the other will call. Do you raise then?

[ QUOTE ]
if he doesn't, then you won't be able to raise the field when you spike a J or flush and BB bets the river (nearly always for the J, apparently not for the flush).

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmmm, I think that's a good point. If both in the middle call after getting 3bet by the BB, then its more than likely that at least one of them has a decent draw, and then you have a difficult river decision.

I'm still unsure as to whether a turn raise or call is best.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BB 3-betting would kill your odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why? The pot is huge and the two caught in the middle have been described as "pretty bad." Obviously if you think one or both will fold you'd be more inclined to just call. But you can't just assume they'll both fold. Say you know one will call and think there's a 60% chance the other will call. Do you raise then?

[/ QUOTE ]

simply put, if both call 2 more bets on the turn, then i think you have less outs than you think... which means the turn action was not value in your favor. pretty bad players can find folds facing 2 big bets on a big street.

[Entity]

Ok -- so turn play has been debated. I think calling is better than raising but it's pretty close.

What about the river play?

Rob

[RunDownHouse]

I call. When the decision seems that close to me, and there's a chance I can make the same with an overcall as I can by raising, I like the call.

[Klak]

i say raise. you might get the blind to cold call and you win the same amount of bets if he folds and the other guy calls(you know this obv). i guess the only concern is that MP has the better flush. i don't think he does.

[mperich]

Turn is good. Just call the river imo, overcall and chance of being beaten outweigh the chance of TAG BB calling two cold and donk just calling.

-Mike

[afk]

I probably would have raised the river. You're only worried about an ace flush or a jack flush (whatever). By calling you may get BB to call giving you 1 additional bet. By raising you get an additional bet from the bettor (most people will call the river raise) and sometimes get 2 more from BB. If you get 3 bet by a bigger flush... then so be it, that won't happen very often.

edit: I should REALLY read your reads beforehand. I really doubt BB's calling two. But still I say raise.

[Surfbullet]

BB leading the turn into your flop cap shows alot of strength, especially given that you say he's a TAG (so he likely knows you are one too).

IMO that makes a river raise better, because you'll be getting 2 out of him when he has a set or can't let go of 2pair or an overpair (you mentioned he could fold black aces) but this is a HUGE pot and you might get some calls you'd normally miss from him.

Surf