200 $50 sngs. Need Help Taking 1st place

[XChamp]

Ok I just completed 216 $50+5 single table sit&goes on Party. I generally play 3-4 tables at a time and get in 5 an hour. I have been doing very well except that I just simply cannot finish them out. I have to be doing something wrong as the difference between 1st and 2nd place is substantial. Take a look...

10th- 11 5.09%
9th- 11 5.09%
8th- 21 9.72%
7th- 15 6.94%
6th- 19 8.80%
5th- 28 12.96%
4th- 23 10.65%
3rd- 28 12.96%
2nd- 40 18.52%
1st- 20 9.26%

ROI- 16.16%
ITM- 40.74%


Now I realize that 200 sngs is not statistically significant for determining ROI, but I want to fill this gaping hole I have when it comes to actually winning .

Overall I am tight in the first few rounds but not afraid to mix it up (calling all in w/ a mid pair when I am sure he has AK and missed the T72 flop, etc). I think I am very good at stealing blinds and applying pressure when I have a big stack. I don't shut down when it gets to top 4 but I don't push hands against stacks that can bust me too often, especially if they are calling stations (as many seem to be).

When I get heads-up I am pretty aggressive. I realize it is a pretty big crap shoot once down to 2 with the blinds so big, which is why I do not think my problem is headsup. Even if I was playing sub-optimally it wouldn't account for this disparity.

So what could be the problem?

[TheHardAss]

Just a guess, but when you are 3 and 4 handed i would probably advocate stealing more blinds. that way you wont be short when you go HU and so merely from chip stax you will be at an advantage, regardless of your skill.

[zac777]

You might want to go back and find out how many chips you usually have when you get heads-up. If you are pretty aggressive heads-up, my first guess is that you aren't pushing hard enough on the bubble and three-handed and it's resulting in you going into heads-up play with a chip disadvantage.

Oh, and I'm also obligated to say that your sample size is too small to really know. Never hurts to look for holes though. Good luck.

[XChamp]

Is there an easy way to filter the 60 tournaments where I made it headsup on poker tracker? I can't find a way to do that.

Thanks for the advice.

[XChamp]

I just figured it out. I can do it in the Tourney Notes section.

[XChamp]

Ok, after crunching some numbers I have:

of 56 times playing headsup in 216 sngs (4 times i took 1st or 2nd without going headsup):

When I take 1st I start with an average of 5434 chips.

When I take 2nd I start with an average of 3721 chips.


This means that, on average, I have 4313 chips when I get heads up.


I dont think this is enought to explain my disparity of 20 1sts and 40 2nds.

My only conclusion can be: I suck at heads up and/or I am running bad. Most likely I think I am running bad, since it is very difficult to give huge advantages to your opponent headsup when the blinds are big (especially if you are aggressive, which I am).


Any thoughts?


PS- Is there a way to get Poker Tracker to do this analysis for me? I had to go through 60 tournament summaries and then enter the data in on Excel.


Thanks again

[spentrent]

Hey settle down a little bit and SMILE -- everything might be okay. Think about it: if 216 SNGs isn't a significant sample for determining a "true" ROI, then it's certainly not a significant sample for determing your "true" finish distribution. Right? Be happy that you've gotten a 16% return on an $11K+ investment and hope that it stays that way!

[XChamp]

Well I'm just trying to close up some holes in my game. If better players reach headsup w/ 5k+ then I can improve. That's what this game is about: improving.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
Well I'm just trying to close up some holes in my game. If better players reach headsup w/ 5k+ then I can improve. That's what this game is about: improving.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I mean is that with 216 tournaments you just can't conclude anything. If your average stack ITM is over 4000 after having played 1000+ games* with the same general strategy (which is a lot harder to do than it sounds) and you still have the same results then I understand your concern. As it stands, your current ITM stack average -- like ROI, finish distibution, etc -- is still based on an insignificant sample.

So what can you do?

The most you can do is post lots of hand histories where you're ITM and see if anyone in here opens your eyes to something you hadn't considered. Forget the stats completely right now since they are much closer to being meaningless than to being meaningful.

You have to concentrate on whether or not you are making correct decisions. Post hands where you weren't sure about optimal strategy and see what people have to say.

How can someone look at your finish distribution and, knowing nothing about your game, say "oh, I've seen the ol' 9%/18%/12% before: that means you don't bluff enough heads up on the flop with broadway/rag/rag on the board?"

(*) And I'm not even convinced that 1000 is enough.

[XChamp]

I don't think I need 1000 sngs to draw a conclusion. If the best $50 sng players reach headsup with an avg stack of 5,500 then I know that I am either running bad, and/or not playing optimally up to this point. If the best $50 players say they reach headsup with 4k on avg then I know that I am A- running well (ie better than I will average out to) and B- playing horribly headsup.

If I can draw any of these conclusions it will be very valuable to me. It does not matter that I only have 200 sit and goes.

[spentrent]

Instead of questioning whether you suck heads up, ASSUME THAT YOU DO, and review your ITM hand histories and look for every single decision you've made that felt shaky. That's all that I'm saying.

[ QUOTE ]
If I can draw any of these conclusions it will be very valuable to me. It does not matter that I only have 200 sit and goes.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if it were 190? 180? 150? 100? When DID it become a significant sample? At exactly 216?

Here's an exercise: split your data set in half. What are your numbers for the first 100, and what are your numbers for the second 100?

[XChamp]

That's my point. I am asking a valid question even if my sample size is 1. If I play ONE sit and go, take 1st place, then come on here and say, "here are my results for one sit and go. I won it. Am I running well? Can I expect to win 100% of my sit and goes once I reach headsup?"

Then the answer is clear. Of course these questions are answerable given a sample size of ONE.

Sample size does not matter at all when it comes to "how well have I been playing?" and "how 'lucky' did I get?". If someone calls all-in with 55 and beats out KK I can easily answer both of these questions given a sample size of 1 hand.

Sample size DOES matter when one wants to know something like: "what is my ROI within 5% with 95% confidence"

I dont want to assume I suck headsup because it is an incredible waste of time to go through combing for mistakes in hundreds of hand histories if the mistakes are not there. I am perfectly willing, however, to do this if someone gives me some stats to guage my play by. I will end up doing it anyway if no help is given (hopefully that doesn't happen). As in my previous post, if someone says "I beat the $50s for 20%ROI over 5,000 tournaments and had an average stack of 4k when I got headsup" then I know that I am playing horribly headsup and know that I wont be wasting time analyzing the minutia.

That is why I am posting here. I'm just trying to save myself some time, if possible. Sorry that it seems to be upsetting you.



Does anyone know if there a way I can get poker tracker to filter SnG databases by 1st 100 played, 2nd 100 played and so on?

And I am off to take a nap...

[spentrent]

Here's the question you asked:


Overall I am tight in the first few rounds but not afraid to mix it up (calling all in w/ a mid pair when I am sure he has AK and missed the T72 flop, etc). I think I am very good at stealing blinds and applying pressure when I have a big stack. I don't shut down when it gets to top 4 but I don't push hands against stacks that can bust me too often, especially if they are calling stations (as many seem to be).

When I get heads-up I am pretty aggressive. I realize it is a pretty big crap shoot once down to 2 with the blinds so big, which is why I do not think my problem is headsup. Even if I was playing sub-optimally it wouldn't account for this disparity.


You described your general strategy, which sounds terrific, then you ended it with an incredibly open-ended question:


So what could be the problem?


My first post in this thread responded to that question, in a few words, "maybe there's no problem." You even said yourself that 200 SNGs are insignificant.

If you're pretty sure there IS a problem, and it involves heads up play, what possible answer did you expect from that open-ended question? "Party is rigged" or "post some hand histories, WHO KNOWS what the problem is?"

I'm not upset at all BTW, otherwise I wouldn't stick around in this thread. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Really, it's just that the question "So, given my excellent strategy, what could be the problem?" is just unanswerable. There are two possibilities:

1) You play solid heads up poker but the sample size is too small to demonstrate that.

2) You play terrible heads up poker but the sample size is too small to confirm that.

EDIT: 3) Or there's no problem, but the sample size is too small to confirm that.

Consider this: your sample size for "what's my average stack when I'm ITM" is EVEN SMALLER than your sample size for all tournaments. We're only talking 100 games where you've been ITM.

[Unarmed]

Shove every single hand HU and call every single push.
The worst you will possibly do over a large sample is a 48% winning %.

Once you have mastered that technique /images/graemlins/grin.gif fold selected hands where you are likely a huge dog, but always remember that your base strategy should be to have your chips in the middle every single time.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
Shove every single hand HU and call every single push.
The worst you will possibly do over a large sample is a 48% winning %.

Once you have mastered that technique /images/graemlins/grin.gif fold selected hands where you are likely a huge dog, but always remember that your base strategy should be to have your chips in the middle every single time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't this only work if blinds are about 4%+ of the total tourney chips?

[syka16]

My ITM distribution didn't even out until 400 SNGs

[ QUOTE ]
Shove every single hand HU


[/ QUOTE ]
Pretty much. At higher buyins, the blinds are high enough to where, if you follow this guideline, it's pretty hard to "suck heads up". At 600/300, Do you make moves like fold J6s in the SB or fold to a push with A4?

[Paul2432]

Add all your stack values at the start of heads up play. Divide this total by (number of tournaments x 10000).

Subtract your actual number of wins from this number.

Divide this new number by (0.5 x sqrt (number of tournaments)).

If this number is more than two, it is very likely your heads up results are not due to chance.

Paul

[Unarmed]

Yup, but thats generally the case.
Note: I'm assuming he's playing Party.

[XChamp]

Ok here are some hands I am unsure of:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (2 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t4890) (loose, calling-station type player, moved in the last time I didn't raise from SB)
Hero (t5110)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Final Pot: t600



Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t500 (2 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t5090)
Hero (t4910)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
Button calls t250, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t4910 (All-In)</font>, Button calls t4410.

I hadn't seen him enter the pot without raising before. I ignored my pathetic alarm bells.

Flop: (t9820) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t9820) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t9820) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t9820

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Button has Js Jd (two pair, jacks and fours).
Hero has As 9h (two pair, nines and fours).
Outcome: Button wins t9820. </font>





Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (2 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t6370)
Hero (t3630)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Button calls t200, Hero checks.

This was an aggressive player. I was worried he was trying to pull the same stunt the last guy did with JJ. Too paranoid?


Flop: (t800) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (t800) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets t800</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t1600