Madness in the Rhythm

[Irieguy]

I have made it clear that I firmly believe that profitablility (ROI, that is) decreases as you move up in limits, and that this effect is probably pretty close to linearly proportionate. I explained my point of view here zero-sum game theory and equilibrium (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1522476&page=&view=&s b=5&o=&vc=1)

But there seem to be a few artificial barriers in place that are affecting the differential difficulty between certain levels.

Relative to their buy-in, I think the $33's are the most difficult SNG limit to play.

I'm not saying that they are harder than the $55's... I'm just saying that they are harder than they should be, and I have a few ideas why that may be:

1. Where are the $44's?

Let's say you are a winning $11 player, and your plan is to move up when you have 30 buy-ins at the next level. So you wait until you have $660, and you move to the $22's. Then you wait until you have $990 and you move to the $33's. Now you have to wait until you have $1650, and it's getting harder and harder to move up. It would be easier to keep moving if there was a $44 SNG.

2. I want to quit my job and become a SNG pro.

How can somebody make their current salary, with low variance, playing SNGs? Well, Mr. J and Scuba Chuck have shown how you can do it at the $22's-$33's, and anybody doing it at the $22's is moving up to the $33's.

3. 1000 chips? No thanks.

There is an artificial barrier separating the "low limit" SNGs from the "high limit" SNGs, and it's the chip stack. Why wouldn't somebody want more chips, you ask? Because you have to be a better poker player to play with more chips, and it takes longer. Pros want to be able to play automatically and quickly. Especially young, inexperienced pros who have never checked a flop after raising preflop in their lives.

The cumulative effect of these and other factors is that there seems to be a "bunching" of good players at the $33 level. More than there should be, anyways. The good players should be passing through the $33's more freely, but they're not.

My "variance partner" and I have played 2000 $33 SNGs in 2005 and we've actually had to skip tables quite a few times to avoid too many pros. Table selection at the $33's when there are 70,000 players on-line?! I wouldn't have believed you if you told me you would even run into a familiar name once a night at the $33's 3 months ago.

But at the time, I really didn't even notice it. I just figured I was running bad for 2000 SNGs. Now that I've got 600 $55's and a few hundred $109's under my belt, it's pretty clear that there's a log jam at the $33's.

So, basically, the $33's are still harder than the $22's and easier than the $55's... but they are a lot closer to the $55's than the $22's, and the opposite should be true from a purely economic standpoint. The 3 best low-limit SNG players I know are all sub-20% ROI at the $33's over their last 1000 and that fact is more likely to be signal than noise.

Caveat pistrix, 22ers... and good luck $33 suckas. I'm off to the $109's and the water is nice. Now I only have to watch out for Raptor, and it seems like he's not even paying attention half the time. Daliman broke out of his 0-for-14,000 streak and is back at the $215's and Curtains is 8-tabling the $6's with his sister, so I don't forsee any trouble for a little while.

Irieguy

[johnnybeef]

the 11s are nice and warm irie....oh yeah i forgot, you have to eat don't you.

[yanicehand]

excellent, excellent post. saved me from posting so many questions i'd had.

[applejuicekid]

This makes me feel a lot better about my $33 results. Thank you, very good points.

[1C5]

This is very interesting and good info to know. Thanks for posting.

[SlowStroke]

I have experienced the same thing in the Poker Stars SNGs.

$30 is such an odd number (no corresponding US currency). For people who play just for fun $5 $10 $20 $50 and $100 are nice round comfortable numbers.

$30 is a stepping stone limit for serious players that many pleasure players simply skip over.

[swarm]

My question is if the play is becoming tougher at the 33's because the so called "fish" and "average joe" player are emulating the strategy that many two plus two players use. People copycat and adjust to what's working, not even the biggest fish are as dumb as we like to perceive them as being. Now i'm not saying they are not copying it perfectly. I don't know if it improves their games as they still make fatal flaws. However those adjustments they make, possibly make it that more difficult to win at those levels.

The reason I say this is I would imagine the majority of two plus two players play in the 20-50 region, especially the 33's. So it has become common place for everyone to push/fold starting at level 4 around the bubble with less than stellar hands. As more and more people see this done, more emulate it.

I've seen a lot of pushing of trash lately, especially in level 5. This I would deem as "copycatish" and as solid improvement to a players games and negative to a 2+2er trying to dominate a game.

On the adjustment side:

I have seen a higher propensity of people's willingness to call all ins even though they have a healthy stack with mediocre holdings such as j9off, q10, 78s, etc... I guess they have seen enough trash and are trying to call your bluff. Maybe they've done it a couple times and that "warm fuzzy feeling" they get from busting someone on a bluff with a mid hand makes them feel like a pro with "great instincts". I see less and less people allowing themselves to get blinded down. People are taking stands before they are in too deep. Some of this adjustment is positive others mostly negative to their personal game. However it's all negative to any 2+2ers game as it creates a crapshoot arena.

Lately I have been seeing a lot of people set traps in anticipation of aggressive bubble play. I've seen a lot of limping lately with AK + AQ even AJ 1010 - AA waiting for a push from a blind stealer. It seems many are willing to trap even if it is a coin flip situation with AJ. I'm not sure where to categorize this adjustment. However, i've had to become much more aware if not hesitant around limps and min-raises.

As the fish are adjusting their games, i'm adjusting mine. I think it is always somewhat advantageous to be a black sheep. Too many 2+2ers are becoming carbon copies of each other.

[Scuba Chuck]

You have expressed, very succinctly what my intuition has been telling me. I too have noticed that there is a large number of semi-experts at the $33s. And it's easy to see why. All of these winning players have built bankrolls ~ house money. "It's just 33 dollas." Which is the correct mantality to have to be a winning player.

I am very interested to see what the overlay in pokerprophecy brings. I was in a game yesterday, when the final 5 (including myself) were all 40+% winning players according to pokerprophecy. (One was Iwascastleman ~ who had an entourage of railbirds at the table)

Furthermore, I have come to the conslusion that the $33s might be a final resting spot for many of the lounge type players. For the very reason you indicate. More chips? Who needs 'em.

I have been thinking, and slowly gravitating (especially since Phil VS re-encouraged this thought) towards skipping the $55s.

But in the end Irie, I think that this is part of the ebb and flow of these games. It is my belief that right now one level might be softer than another, whereas another level might be in a logjam. It is the pros job to find the soft landing, and maximize his opportunity.

8 tabling $33s (25% ROI) = 4 tabling $109s (15% ROI) = $/hr

[Shanemex]

Would you say that you could earn a higher hourly rate playing the $22s than you could playing the $33s?

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
I have been thinking, and slowly gravitating (especially since Phil VS re-encouraged this thought) towards skipping the $55s.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really just pointed Scuba to this post by Irie (http://http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1586196&page=&view=&s b=5&o=&vc=1). I don't know what he should do, but it's not my money, so go for it! I also tried to talk Scuba into playing a $5000 headsup match on PokerStars (not against me).

In fact, I encourage all of you to leave the 33s.

[zaphod]

It seems to be something wrong with that link.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you say that you could earn a higher hourly rate playing the $22s than you could playing the $33s?

[/ QUOTE ]

For me, no.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
In fact, I encourage all of you to leave the 33s.

[/ QUOTE ]

I second that. Go to the $109s! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Scuba

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems to be something wrong with that link.

[/ QUOTE ]

link (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1586196&page=&view=&s b=5&o=&vc=1)

[byronkincaid]

So far this month in the $55s......

[ QUOTE ]
ROI -12.3%

ITM 31.4%

Total Tourneys 169
Multitable utilization (not working properly)
Total entries $9,295.00
Total prizes $8,150.00
SNG Profit -$1,145.00


[/ QUOTE ]

I am getting annialated by people calling with Ace rag. Doesn't matter whether this is my first push my 3rd push where I've shown AA KK and AK or my 10th push with nothing, if someones got any old crappy ace then they're calling.

I must be too good for these $55s now. Anyone wanna back me in the $215s /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Voltron87]

I guess I'm in this logjam at the 33s, but I haven't noticed a big drop in my ROI, which is still healthy, but not criminal. I'm probably just getting better, my postflop play has increases leaps and bounds, especially at the 25 50 level, this may be keeping me above the logjam.

I think that if you are a young budding player, playing exclusively SNGs is not the most profitable method. Learn to play something else as well.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying that they are harder than the $55's... I'm just saying that they are harder than they should be, and I have a few ideas why that may be:

[/ QUOTE ]

What sets the scale for what you think they should be? Linear interpolation between 22 and 55?

EDIT: Rereading, I'll answer my own question with, "Yes."

[The Yugoslavian]

Irie,

You have theorized about the possibility of this bottleneck before on this forum. Are you sure it's just not a hiccup in an evolving Party Poker economy? Let me explain...

It's quite possible that many of the older $33 pros are near the end of their stay at that buyin. You and Zen have already left the $33s, AA suited has as well, many are making plans to do so shortly (such as StupidSucker). Previously it seemed you felt the $55s was a bottleneck of sorts ... do you think because of the maturation and penetration of good STT players, $33 is becoming an additional permanent bottleneck or the new permanent bottleneck in the system?

FWIW, I agree with your general line of thought. I've run into way too many sharks in the $33s (who don't really belong there), considering the Party population and low buyin...

Also, on a somewhat different note, do you think the $215s is a new sweet-spot given the 1ks? Or because of the huge buyin increase (and *maybe* the hoopla of the 1k collusion), will there simply be a similar bottleneck of the very best players @ the $215s?

Yugoslav

[curtains]

One note - My sister's rise through the $5s-$22s was rather quick, as it was clear to me that she was an obvious favorite at those limits. Since bankroll wasnt a concern I told her to play $33s if she wanted. Although she's doing fine (not nearly as well as she did at the lower buyins however), I expect itll be a signifigantly longer period before she tries her hand at $55's.

[Irieguy]

Yugo,

I don't really know the answer to any of your questions. I'm just kind of throwing my current thoughts out there for comment.

But I am sure that the highest buy-in will always be the hardest to beat. That much, we can count on.

Irieguy

[raptor517]

whats going on??? oh yea, you may not have to look out for me TOO much, i been messin with the 215s with marginal success. who knows, maybe ill play those on the weekends and the 109s during the week. buuuut, i should be 12 tabling as soon as i get a gosh darn affilliate for some other skin.. and at that time i might start in the 55s, you konw, to learn and adjust and things like that, so i dont have to pay attention, cuz that takes too much effort. anyways, irie, good post, see ya at the tables /images/graemlins/wink.gif holla

[The once and future king]

After a period of stromy variance which occured just after I had got cocky with my BR, I had to regroup.

I did this in the 30s (On stars). I think this level of buy in is perhaps the fall back position for many an ok player who may have just run into some problems at a higher buy in. This may also contribute to its buyin/difficulty rato being slightly out of kilter.

[VinylTable]

I started off in September of 2003 w/ 100$. After messing around w/ low-limit ring games and SnGs, I found that I had the best success with SnGs. For the last month, I've been 3tabling 109$s with an ITM of just over 40% and an ROI of just over 30%. As these stats are for only 300 games, they still rise and fall a bit on any given day. My hourly rate is currently 120$. Personally, I like starting with 1000 chips, as you can sit back more and wait for hands until the Level 5 Push n Gos begin. Also, in my opinion, the 109$ SnGs are not much tougher overall than the 55s or 33s. You will find some regular good players there, but 7 of 10 are still fish. Also, the end game play is better -- the comments in the original post of this thread are very accurate. People are less likely to get blinded down. And yes, people seem more willing to call the late pushes w/ mediocre hands.

[sofere]

I just moved up to the $33s from the $22s in Stars and have found something interesting. In my miniscule sample size (50 games) I have found that people are busting out very very quickly.

At the $22s I was generally at 100/200 a25 (level 7) with 5 or 6 people on a fairly regular basis. At the 33s it seems more common to be on the ITM or heads up at level 6. In 2 games yesterday it was down to the bubble in level 3! Thats never happened in the 22s.

Probably just finding the right tables at the right times, but I thought it was just interesting.

[lorinda]

[ QUOTE ]
I have experienced the same thing in the Poker Stars SNGs.

$30 is such an odd number (no corresponding US currency). For people who play just for fun $5 $10 $20 $50 and $100 are nice round comfortable numbers.


[/ QUOTE ]

Although it is not very close to being true anymore, I suspect Brits still think of $33 as 20 pounds.

Lori

[TheUsher]

This is a great post Irie. FWIW, your thoughts about the $33's reflect mine for the $55's to a T. I've played about 400 SNG's 4-8 tabling in the past 10 days or so and I've noticed a HUGE majority of tables where I've played with half the table or more before, with most of the people being 4-tablers. As raptor could back me up on this since I've been showing him, I have notes on 5 to 6+ of the people now and it's just ridiculous. This could all just be nothing, but I've been noticing many many more 4-tablers there who have been coming from the 33's and it seems like the 55's are becoming the hot spot now too for the higher limits since not many people have the bankroll for the 109/215's. The days of the really soft 55's are over as evidenced by the 7-9 players left in Level 5 which is a normal occurance now.

For me, I'm moving up to the 109's 4tabling and probably adding tables from there. Hopefully we won't see each other. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[J-Lo]

Irie, what do u suggest people do about this, when they are moving up? Spend more time at the $22's-- build a solid roll (100 buyins)? Dive right in? Start playing 1 or 2 tables mixed into the $22'? I tried making the move up by diving right in-- by mixing 4 $33's w/ 4 $22's. This has yielded crazy results. First ~80 50% ROI, last 80 -50% roi. Scared the crap out of me, so i moved back down to 8-tabling the $22's. Would exclusively 4 tabling them be better-- am i losing too much by 8 tabling this early?

[Irieguy]

I'd 8-table the $22's until my roll was fat... and move straight to the $55's.

That's just my opinion.

Irieguy

[Mr_J]

"I'd 8-table the $22's until my roll was fat... and move straight to the $55's."

This is what I'm doing (but 6 tabling with 6 always running).
Not playing $33s for a few reasons-
- I can't always play 5pm-12am thanks to my sleeping hours (always changing), and there are alot less 'sharks' at the $22s in non peak hours.
- $/hr is lower at the $22s, but not that much lower, especially during non peak.
- I've been very unlucky at the $33s, but running hot at the $22s (>40%ROI over 250). I like feeling like a god.
- What Irie said.

"The 3 best low-limit SNG players I know are all sub-20% ROI at the $33's over their last 1000"

This is sorta scary. If these guys could only hit early 20's, then there'd be no $/hr difference between the $20s and $30s for me.

[J-Lo]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd 8-table the $22's until my roll was fat... and move straight to the $55's.

That's just my opinion.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Are u serious about this, or is this a sarcastic answer to a stupid question? And the theory behind this is that, the $55's aren't much different from the $33's? How much postflop play is there in the $55's (because of the added chips). I have a bit over $3k, so i might jump into the $55's next weekend if this advice was serious.

[The Yugoslavian]

He's serious.

For now at least...

Yugoslav

[Apathy]

Another major consideration in my mind is that many of the wealthier fish prefer to play in the 10,000 chip structure then the 8,000 chip structure.

Everyone on party is not a pro trying to build their roll. They are real people who don't mind losing money for return entertainment value. The 50s and up target these people more then the 33s.

Just another reason to move up.

I will be 8 tabling the 109s as soon as exams are over but I'm seriously considering a permanant move to the 215s until I get another monitor.

[raptor517]

why not 12 table? its like free money you dont get 8 tabling /images/graemlins/wink.gif yea these 55s are killing me. im up like 600 bucks, and i keep thinking bout the many thousands im down, lol. holla

[XChamp]

Usher and others,


Do you practiice table selection? I 4-table the $50s and it's not that hard. The more the good players practice table selection the BETTER it is for the other good players. I cannot wait for Poker Prophecy V2 as it will help me find bad players, avoid good ones and help good ones avoid ME.

What people are saying about the logjam in the $50s may be true but I think a little discrimination when it comes to where you sit down cancels this almost completely. It maybe takes an extra minute to find a table doing this. I play 5/hr so that's an extra 5 minutes/hr where I could be playing an extra table but am not. Hardly a difference.

[Myst]

How could you advocate directly moving from the $22 to the $55s, especially when you concede that the $33 are still a bit relatively easier than the 55s?

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
How could you advocate directly moving from the $22 to the $55s, especially when you concede that the $33 are still a bit relatively easier than the 55s?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's just trying to get 11/22 fish like me to move up and contribute to his swinging jetset lifestyle, methinks.

[Big Limpin']

[ QUOTE ]
How can somebody make their current salary, with low variance, playing SNGs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Quadding the $33s seems to be adequate for "grinder-pros" to make a healthy living.

Irie, i would weight this the highest of the reasons you suggest.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
How could you advocate directly moving from the $22 to the $55s, especially when you concede that the $33 are still a bit relatively easier than the 55s?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well a 30% ROI at the $22's is the same earn rate as a 20% ROI at the $33's which would be the same as a 12% ROI at the $55's.

I believe that a 30% ROI player at the $22's could not earn 20% at the $33's, but COULD earn 12% or better at the $55's.

Again, though, this is all just a thought I have after finishing a few thousand $33's and a few hundred $55's and $109's.

Irieguy

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How could you advocate directly moving from the $22 to the $55s, especially when you concede that the $33 are still a bit relatively easier than the 55s?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well a 30% ROI at the $22's is the same earn rate as a 20% ROI at the $33's which would be the same as a 12% ROI at the $55's.

I believe that a 30% ROI player at the $22's could not earn 20% at the $33's, but COULD earn 12% or better at the $55's.

Again, though, this is all just a thought I have after finishing a few thousand $33's and a few hundred $55's and $109's.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

this isn't even factoring in rakeback.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


this isn't even factoring in rakeback.

[/ QUOTE ]

Holla.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


this isn't even factoring in rakeback.

[/ QUOTE ]

Holla.

[/ QUOTE ]

For a good time check out my 2/4 limit table....#15657.

It's Hollatastic!

Yugoslav

[stupidsucker]

I stand behind the OP, and I can verify his data.

However.... Ironicly a post like this could have more effect on the table econmy then one thinks. A good portion of the solid players at the 30s are posters or lurkers here(I know your out there you lurkers who suck up knowledge and never post). If they all read here that they can make more $$ at the 20s for less variance then wooo hoo the band wagon starts another shift. Then what? The 30s become easier then the 20s?


The numbers are not in yet for any true hardcore verification. I can tell you this...

In a sample of various trusted winning 2+2ers I have over 5k hands saying that 15% roi at the 30s is very good right now. Any given 500ish tournies can be way way off the mark.

at the 20s I only have about a 400 game recent sample.

So far in my personal results I make more/hour playing the 20s.... but 400 is a small sample so I can offer no conclusion.

[Maulik]

I made the jump from $11s to $33s this weekend and the weekend play is poor. I'm wondering what you guys are talking about? I think if I don't place ITM, its more often than not a result of myself making a mistake here. That said, why not just play the $33s during peak hours or avoid my games. Yeah, that would be best.

Edit: I didn't read most of the ranting yet; but why not use the $33s as a way to polish your game until you have the roll to play the $55s? That said, I usually say, skip the $22s, but here I think its not the best advice based on the $33s adjustments necessary from $22 to $33

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I made the jump from $11s to $33s this weekend and the weekend play is poor. I'm wondering what you guys are talking about?

[/ QUOTE ]

We're talking about results from over 5,000 SNGs played by a few SNG pros in 2005. Your results from this weekend may not correlate.

Irieguy

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I made the jump from $11s to $33s this weekend and the weekend play is poor. I'm wondering what you guys are talking about?

[/ QUOTE ]

We're talking about results from over 5,000 SNGs played by a few SNG pros in 2005. Your results from this weekend may not correlate.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

This i can not dispute, but it seems in the few hundred I've played, I'm closing in on stat sig, that play during peak hours is still very beatable. I've noticed during the day, its far less the case.

[1C5]

[ QUOTE ]
I stand behind the OP, and I can verify his data.

However.... Ironicly a post like this could have more effect on the table econmy then one thinks. A good portion of the solid players at the 30s are posters or lurkers here(I know your out there you lurkers who suck up knowledge and never post). If they all read here that they can make more $$ at the 20s for less variance then wooo hoo the band wagon starts another shift. Then what? The 30s become easier then the 20s?


The numbers are not in yet for any true hardcore verification. I can tell you this...

In a sample of various trusted winning 2+2ers I have over 5k hands saying that 15% roi at the 30s is very good right now. Any given 500ish tournies can be way way off the mark.

at the 20s I only have about a 400 game recent sample.

So far in my personal results I make more/hour playing the 20s.... but 400 is a small sample so I can offer no conclusion.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think they would move down to the 22s as opposed to up to the 55s? If bankroll is not a problem, I am sure a solid player would be just as likely to make 12%ROI at $55 as 30% at $22. But of course variance is higher so maybe I answered my own question. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[The once and future king]

[ QUOTE ]
I suspect Brits think of $33 as 20 pence.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fixed your post.

[jccookjr]

This may be a dumb question but how do you know there are pros in the game? Do you remember them or do you have time to check Pokerpropecy before signing up?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
This may be a dumb question but how do you know there are pros in the game? Do you remember them or do you have time to check Pokerpropecy before signing up?

[/ QUOTE ]

He knows them. Or enough of them anyway.

I also doubt Irie is concerned with the marginally winning pros but instead has found that there are a relatively large number of very good pros @ the $33s right now.

Yugoslav

[AA suited]

go from $33 straight to $109?

why skip $55??? /images/graemlins/confused.gif