How much to move up to PS $10 SNG?

[Benoit]

Since I started playing $5 STT at pokerstars ($50 bankroll) I've played 18 games over the course of 6-8 weeks.

last 18 ($5+$0.50) 9 player NL Tournaments
ITM: 9 times (50%)
Total investment (including fee): $100
Money earned (on top of original investment): $98
ROI: 98%
Total time in tournaments: 11.92 hrs
Win per hour: $8.22/hr

Now I'm surprised of these results too, I know it will certainly go down if I move up and that it wasn't a large sample size, but maybe it's from all the weak players in $5 tourneys.

Anyway, how much bankroll should I have to move to $10? Is $10 going to be about as weak as $5? I'm currently sitting on about a $120 bankroll now.

[Chaos81]

I can't help you with what you should have to move up, but I would suggest staying where you are at. Just my opinion though.

[slickterp]

play more at the 5's. any move up results in a significant increase in skill of the players. at any rate, i would say you want about 30 buy ins as your bankroll (so like $300 for 10's). at $120, if you go on a bad streak and don't get ITM or just place 3rd in 8 or 9 in a row, your BR is decimated.

[deacsoft]

I'd suggest 30-50 buy-ins for a winning player.

[pzhon]

There is a one-table tournament forum. You may want to read it.

No one is beating the SNGs for a 98% ROI. I think 50% is a reasonable goal for $5 SNGs. I would bet that your results are better not because you are an incredibly good player, but because you were really lucky. Next week, you might do it again, but you might bubble out 5 times in a row.

After n SNGs, the standard error of your ROI is about 170%/squareroot(n). To get the radius of a 95% confidence interval, multiply this by about 2. In your case, your ROI is about 100% +- 80%.

The number of buy-ins needed depends on your win rate. To be conservative, you might want to have 4 variance/edge ~ 12/ROI buy-ins. If you are more aggressive, you can get by with fewer buy-ins, perhaps just variance/edge, but then you need to be prepared to move down if you lose.

[Benoit]

cool thanks for the info.