AQo -- nuts on the turn, not on the river

[elitegimp]

Background -- I was at this table for like 5 minutes when this hand came up (i.e. still in first orbit). I think pre-flop, flop, and turn were auto-played (I see no reason to 3-bet or cap the flop, nor any reason not to call 1 bet either time).

With the flop action, I see a call-3bet so rarely that I was pretty sure MP1 had a set... but getting 17:1 and with 3 outs to the nuts and ye olde 2nd nut backdoor flush draw, it seemed like an easy call to make. Button has me a little confused -- possible scenarios were "maniac" (almost ruled out by the lack of a cap), flush draw (free card play attempt?), 2 pair, or a strong top pair, and watching him call 2 cold twice on the turn added to my confusion.

That said -- how do you handle the river? I should note that since MP1 raised the last 3 times the action was on him, it seemed likely he would bet... Anyway, here are some options that came to me:

* put as much money in the pot as possible
* bet out, call down any number of raises
* bet, call a single raise (from either opponent), but fold if it's 2 more back to me
* check-call 1, check-fold if it's 2 back to me

And one I thought of after the hand ended
* check-raise MP1 if button just calls

It's a weird hand because I am 99% sure that I have a better hand than MP1, but I don't know how likely the button is to have clubs here (given the action, not given the fact that he was dealt two cards).

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero [auto] bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB folds, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

River: (20.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero ???

[Zoelef]

I don't like the flop auto-bet because Aces can be reverse dominated and fill an OESD Ten-King, and Queens don't put you ahead of a King...so only Tens can reliably improve your hand above the field.

Generallly, I check-call this river and fold to two bets cold.

[Scratch]

You've got MP1's 2-pair or set beat here. The problem is Button and your crappy position. If you bet and MP1 raises, do you fold if Button 3-bets? Regardless of what happens, I'm not folding the river here.

I'm just thinking out loud here, but would check-raising be a good option here, assuming the bet comes from MP1? If button folds or just calls MP1's expected bet, you've got to figure your hand is good. If button raises the river, you're likely sunk (but you'd still make a crying call). Of course, this all depends on MP1 continuing his aggression on the river, despite the 3rd club. Having this checked through on the river would be bad, but not as bad as having button 3-bet you. Anyway, I'm probably not making any sense.

[benkath1]

G-post

[ QUOTE ]
bet, call a single raise (from either opponent), but fold if it's 2 more back to me



[/ QUOTE ]

That's my play. The pot is big, and you might have the best hand. I think your right on the bb being the scary one. If MP raises, I might consider 3-betting, but if button raises, I might let this one go.

Well I say I would but in reality it's not so easy. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Ben

[elitegimp]

[ QUOTE ]
You've got MP1's 2-pair or set beat here. The problem is Button and your crappy position. If you bet and MP1 raises, do you fold if Button 3-bets? Regardless of what happens, I'm not folding the river here.

I'm just thinking out loud here, but would check-raising be a good option here, assuming the bet comes from MP1? If button folds or just calls MP1's expected bet, you've got to figure your hand is good. If button raises the river, you're likely sunk (but you'd still make a crying call). Of course, this all depends on MP1 continuing his aggression on the river, despite the 3rd club. Having this checked through on the river would be bad, but not as bad as having button 3-bet you. Anyway, I'm probably not making any sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

heh, you've just typed out pretty much everything that went through my head when I saw the river (except the check-raise line, which I thought of after the hand ended).

[KaiShin]

I'm not loving the flop bet personally. My standard line out of position on this flop is to check/call.

I like the check/raise idea on this river. If it comes 2 cold to you, a fold is in order. If MP1 bets it and Button calls or folds, you can raise it for value.

[Duerig]

First of all, I don't think there is any such thing as an "auto" bet just because you have raised preflop. I'm not sure I like that you bet this flop with the gutshot to the nuts, the back door flush and 1 overcard against 4 opponents. That gives you around 5 outs. I think I would check-call one bet, fold if it's 2 or more back to you.

So anyway, getting to your question, I think you absolutely have to bet this river. Assuming someone is on a flush draw at this point is a big mistake in my opinion. Don't give them credit for a hand until they play back at you.

[elitegimp]

[ QUOTE ]

So anyway, getting to your question, I think you absolutely have to bet this river. Assuming someone is on a flush draw at this point is a big mistake in my opinion. Don't give them credit for a hand until they play back at you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Except I'm fairly sure MP1 is going to play back at me, and even more sure that I have him beat. Does Button call 2 cold on the river with anything I beat? Wouldn't it be better to let him call one cold and then put in my raise? (Especially because a raise from the button pretty much guarantees I'm beat)

[Entity]

Flop bet isn't terrible, isn't great. Looks much worse when you get bet and 3-bet.

River play is interesting. Button isn't folding if he has 2pr or somesuch. He's 3-betting if he hits his flush.

I think the correct line might be to bet, watch MP1 raise, and fold if Button 3-bets; if button calls or folds, then you 3-bet and watch MP1 cap. Tough fold to make though. I like the thought of a checkraise but it puts a kink into your plans when it goes check-bet-raise, and you don't know quite where you stand. Button is only likely to 3-bet with a flush here, I'd say.

Rob

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the thought of a checkraise but it puts a kink into your plans when it goes check-bet-raise, and you don't know quite where you stand. Button is only likely to 3-bet with a flush here, I'd say.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking about a river c/r too Rob. I think though that if Button raises, I'm fairly certain he has the flush.

[droolie]

I agree that the first three streets are standard though I would be wary of auto-betting every flop. This flop you sort of have to given the flop texture.

As far as the river is concerned....
You are beating MP1. This is obvious. Unles he way overplayed a flush draw on the turn he has a set or an overplayed two pair. We want his money!
Button is the scary presence here. It really looks like a flush draw to me but I'm not sure. Given that I think I like your line of C/Ring if MP1 bets and button just calls. I think I can fold if button raises. I want to see a showdown here but I don't want to pay more than 1BB if Button has hit his flush. Ideally he'll have a weak K and be holding on praying for a miracle. Betting out and folding if button raises has merit too. The big problem is that your relative position sucks and MP1 might make paying off button quite expensive.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like the thought of a checkraise but it puts a kink into your plans when it goes check-bet-raise, and you don't know quite where you stand. Button is only likely to 3-bet with a flush here, I'd say.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking about a river c/r too Rob. I think though that if Button raises, I'm fairly certain he has the flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you check and MP bets, Button could probably raise 2pr, a set, a lower straight, the same straight, or the flush. If you bet and MP raises, I think Button's 3-betting range is much less; that's why I think I like a bet here. It'd be a tough fold coming back to you, though, and I don't know that I could make it.

Rob

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
If you check and MP bets, Button could probably raise 2pr, a set, a lower straight, the same straight, or the flush. If you bet and MP raises, I think Button's 3-betting range is much less; that's why I think I like a bet here. It'd be a tough fold coming back to you, though, and I don't know that I could make it.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree a 3-bet pretty much guarantees a flush. I dunno, I just don't see the previous streets' action and see Button raise all of the sudden with 2pr or even a set.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you check and MP bets, Button could probably raise 2pr, a set, a lower straight, the same straight, or the flush. If you bet and MP raises, I think Button's 3-betting range is much less; that's why I think I like a bet here. It'd be a tough fold coming back to you, though, and I don't know that I could make it.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree a 3-bet pretty much guarantees a flush. I dunno, I just don't see the previous streets' action and see Button raise all of the sudden with 2pr or even a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you check, I think it's possible enough (only has to be a straight/2pr/set 10% of the time for your fold to be incorrect if it goes check-bet-raise).

I think he'll hold onto Kings and etc. enough that a bet is good. Sucks when you get 3-bet, but I'm not sure that I could fold here without a read.

Rob