K8s in BB...out counting

[benkath1]

Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, CO folds, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

This is the way I saw this hand. I am counting 7 outs, any 7(4) and any K(3). I'm not really counting the 8 in case mp2 is betting his draw. If he is, and the 7 comes I may get a few more bets out of his trips. the pot is excatly 7 sb back to me, so I think I did right. You wouldn't raise here would you?



Turn: (4.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Ok, I made my gutshot. My thinking is to bet my hand and not go for C/R. Then I will find out if MP2 has the 89 or not.

River: (8.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, SB calls.

Final Pot: 10.50 BB

How'd I do?

Hellmouth, r u with me?

Ben

[jaxUp]

no way you can count 7 outs on that flop. only count 1.5 for the K outs, and 4 for the 7s. Total: 5.5. That's probably still enough to call with here, but it's closer.

[aK13]

Hmm...anybody else go for a check/raise here on the turn? MP2 is a likely bettor, and you might extract an extra big bet from MP2 and SB?

Or am I falling into fancy play syndrome?

[k000k]

Flop: Raise!? No way!, you arent much better than your gutshot.. 3 K outs? I think not.. You have to discount at least one there.. Backdoor flushes, board pairs, rogue 2pairs on your K outs, theres plenty of ways for this hand to go wrong. I'd call it, theres enough ppl in to make your implied odds pretty high. If you hit, you have 2 streets to collect.. Given the chance, I'd rather check it thru. 5-5.5 outs

Turn: Sweet, you hit it! Standard til the end, suck all the bets you can out of em.

[shadow29]

Nice hand. As others have mentioned, you have about 5 outs on the flop. Still enough odds, but don't raise here.

[Rev. Good Will]

A C/R will do some good, the flop aggression was behind you.

I must be missing something, why are some of the K outs unclean?

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
A C/R will do some good, the flop aggression was behind you.

I must be missing something, why are some of the K outs unclean?

[/ QUOTE ]

you are often reverse-dominated/outkicked.

[benkath1]

U mean an AK-9 calling and catching? Or some one hitting their kicker? Is it possible that turn and river action could determine any of that?

Ben

[numeri]

[Replying without reading other replies - grunching]

I don't like to give the 1-card straight draw 4 outs. Anyone else agree? I also want to discount the K outs. K6s-K4s are common holdings, where you'd be reverse dominated. I say 3 outs for the 4 7's and 1.5 outs for the 3 K's giving you 4.5 outs. With that, you need about 9:1. I might still call here because you might be able to make up an extra bet or two if you make your straight. (If you make it and bet, someone will most likely call to 'keep you honest'. I love that.)

OK. Now to read how wrong I am.

[Yako]

`grunching`
I'm sure the other posts have said so by now, but you don't really have 7 outs. You actually have closer to 5.5. Since your pot equity is around 20%, and you'd like to get anyone else drawing to the same gutshot you have (or a better one like 98) out of the hand, I think you need to protect your hand by raising here. At the same time, this makes your K outs more likely, as you might cause someone with a better K than yours to fold.

EDIT: Look at that, seems like I'm wrong with the raise again... Well, being overaggressive is one of my problems again. Can someone explain to me why raising in this situation isn't a good idea? Is it because the pot is too small or because the chances of protecting your hand are way to slim as only one opponent hasn't committed himself to the pot on the flop yet?

[jason1990]

This is exactly how I'd count the outs. 1.5 for the Ks and only 3 for the gutshot because of the possibility of a split pot. With four to a straight on the board, I like the turn bet. I would not risk trying a check-raise here.

[jason1990]

[ QUOTE ]
Can someone explain to me why raising in this situation isn't a good idea? Is it because the pot is too small or because the chances of protecting your hand are way to slim as only one opponent hasn't committed himself to the pot on the flop yet?

[/ QUOTE ]
For me, it's both. I think the small pot would make me hesitant to raise, even if there were a lot of players left to act. As it is, with only one player left to act, I wouldn't want to raise, even if the pot were much larger.

[benkath1]

[ QUOTE ]
OK. Now to read how wrong I am.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks like you done fine. /images/graemlins/smile.gif