Tough flop decision. JTs on button. Blinds 50/100 Empire 2.5k gaur.

[Eihli]

I have 2200 on the button and it's folded to me with Js Ts, SB has 1500 and BB has 3000. I raise to 300. BB calls.
Flop: Ks 3c 4s
BB checks. This is a tough spot for me. Do I take a shot at the pot as a semibluff with a nice sized bet? That would leave me in one hell of a bad situation if he comes over the top. Do I check behind and take the free turn? That's the same thing as handing him the pot 4/5ths of the time since he'll make a turn bet that I won't have odds to call. But then again, when I do hit and he bets into me I have a good chance of getting his stack. Or, should I just do what I did?

I check.
Turn: 4c
He bets 400. I push.


Your thoughts?

[billyjex]

I bet the flop. 2/3rds the pot or so. So, let's see, pot of 650 and you have 1900 left. Bet 425, pot is now 1075 and you have 1475 left. If he pushed.. I dunno.

Hopefully a continuation bet will take it down, if he doesn't have a K he'd be hard pressed to stay in the hand.

[Eihli]

You can't bet the flop with the plan of "i dunno..." when raised. That's nonsense.

[billyjex]

Well, I'm not really sure what I'd do.

But a bet on the flop has too great a chance of taking it down right there. Maybe 1/2 the pot would be better so I wouldn't feel as committed. But I don't like checking.

[Pulplife]

Maybe this is how I talk myself into playing these hands the way I do, but I would make a continuation bet and call a raise...depending on the player of course. Here's my thinking behind this:

If I think BB will fold to a flop bet 50% of the time (didn't see anything on this players style or image), and call/push the other 50%, I see that I'm ~69% to win the hand (50[he folds]+ 50[he pushes and I call]*.38[I make my flush, assuming that it is good] = 69%). It may be slightly higher if you count the runner runner str8 draw.

Just my way of justifying a laggy play??? Anyway, I would bet the flop and call a push.

Pulp

[BK_]

betting the flop planning to call a push is much better than checking. the decision then is whether you should call a push or fold. that depends entirely on your pot odds/tournament equity