KQs in Cutoff with tricky flop.

[Ianco15]

Just sat, no reads.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG folds.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

Comments? Specifically, what do you think about the flop raise and the river call?


Ship__It.

[zuluking]

Looks good.

[MrBruno]

I think I would have raised the turn to try for a free card on the river...and folded on the river to a bet.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I would have raised the turn to try for a free card on the river...and folded on the river to a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? What else is villain playing this way?

Flop is close. I'd tend to call. Turn is standard. I'd fold the river.

[Shillx]

I really don't understand the flop raise at all. It isn't for a free card since you will be betting the turn if checked to and it would suck balls to get 3-bet here since you have lots of ways to win this pot. Call the flop and see what happens on the turn dude.

Brad

[MrBruno]

Just trying to validate/correct my thinking here...

You're correct, what else could he be playing except Ax. I think I tend to not really consider what my opponent's cards are when he bets into me (the pfr).

So I'm understanding your comment, I should only be in this hand on the turn for it's flush value (and not consider that a pair of Kings is going to be good enough to win) since it's apparent that the BB is not affraid of the Ace on the flop - correct?

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
...it would suck balls...

[/ QUOTE ]

Master Of The Understatement.

[Buckmulligan]

Hmmm. I think I would call the flop bet because of the caller. I don't like your chances of buying a freecard with the raise, and I'm not even sure how useful a freecard would be, unless you turn a diamond.

[OrianasDaad]

I'd raise this flop to buy a free card, but not so much for value with two players already having put money into the pot.

I'd raise the turn for value. The pot is large enough to either: win here, improve to the nut flush.

Your opponent is either a reasonable player, or an unreasonable one. If he's unreasonable, he may be betting with a worse hand than yours, in which case your pair of kings are likely to be good. If he's reasonable, he might put you on AK, since you've done nothing but show strength, and either fold (if he's worse) or give you a free showdown (if he's better). Better to raise since it disguises your hand from good players, and since you are likely to be better against worse players.

If you get 3-bet HU on the turn, then you are almost certainly behind, but still have the nut flush draw.

I'd call down the river. The pot is big enough, and you don't have enogh information about your opponent to know where you stand.

[ QUOTE ]
Just sat, no reads.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've got a few things to say about this.

I've found that some players will play into you because you just sat down. I'm more likely to show down a couple marginal hands early at a table because some people do pay attention to these things, particularly the TAG's.

There's no reason not to have any reads before you sit in an online game. Scout for the best games available. Practice table selection. It's part of the discipline of being a winning player.

[mmbt0ne]

I don't like it.

Flop raise is marginal at best. When he bets into you on the turn you need to make a decision.

A) You call down to showdown no matter what. It costs you 2BB for a chance to winn 8.75 BB, so you need to be good about 19% of the time to turn a profit.

B) You call getting 7.75:1 while you have 14 outs, but fold the river if you don't hit.

Personally, I don't think you're good here 19% of the time, so I'm going with option B.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd raise the turn for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Terrible. Just terrible.

Standard player: he isn't folding. He might be 3-betting. You have to call. You have between 9 and 14 outs, depending.

Rob

[Ianco15]

Thanks to everyone for replying. A few of you have said you would raise the turn. Interesting idea that I didn't even consider during the hand. The only problem I have with it is that I don't think the better will fold to a turn raise if he is betting into me on the turn after I raised the flop.

The river call was a little loose, and I may have not had quite enough odds there but I was willing to pay one bet into that pot for information.

Many of you have said the flop raise won't buy a free card. I think many opponents will check to me on the turn after raising preflop and raising the flop. Am I wrong? Thanks.


Ship__It.

[waynethetrain]

I don't like the flop raise (call is fine). There are 3 opponents and the BB lead out into that field after you raised pre flop. I think that makes it quite likely someone has an A (most likely the BB at least).

The river call is close.

[mmbt0ne]

Ok, a flop raise is definitely awful I've decided.

With the help of Poker Calculator
board - K/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif - 20.34%
Ax, Axs, 33 - 69.64%
random - 10.01%

You need this number to be &gt; 33.3%, or have significant folding equity to be making money on this raise, even if you do take your free card.