Pot odds problem

[dawade]

I know about pot odds as far as it relates to flushes. If one of your suit, instead of two flops, what kind of odds do you need to call bets? I misplayed this hand, but got lucky...

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+2 folds, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls.

Final Pot: 10 BB

[tiltaholic]

how do you calculate required pot odds for "regular flushes"?

(try to figure it out for BD flushes)

[bigalt]

ed says that backdoor flush draws are worth about 1.5 outs.

Depending on how many outs you could your ace for, you probably have about 3-3.5 outs total, meaning you'd like to be getting in the neighborhood of 13-1 odds.

I've never figured out exactly how to use implied odds in situations like this, but I think if you had 1 or 2 callers in the middle you might have been ok to call here, particularly closing the action.

[keikiwai]

I don't understand your location. What "S"???

Good advice BTW.

[bighomage]

And when you're figuring it you also need to keep in mind that you may have to pay on the next street.

[istewart]

Generally you can't call flop bets with just a backdoor flush. Your ace overcard has okay value, but it's still not enough.

For a backdoor flush you'd need (10/47)*(9/46) odds to continue, which is worth about 1.5 outs.

[keikiwai]

Why do you figure that? Don't forget to that if an A falls it potentially makes straight for someone, your pot odds are not good, there are 2 cards above 10 (2 pair likelier than usual), etc. The flop is horrible for this hand. Yes you get lucky, but w/ these pot odds you never should have seen the turn.

Look at tiltaholic's post about how to calculate BDFD, and remember that probability wise this is an AND situation. So turn has to be /images/graemlins/heart.gif AND river has to be /images/graemlins/heart.gif so you take the probability of one and MULTIPLY it by the other.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
ed says that backdoor flush draws are worth about 1.5 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

weak. just weak.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
For a backdoor flush you'd need (10/47)*(9/46) odds to continue, which is worth about 1.5 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

give the guy a chance to figure it out...
sheesh...

and if you're going to give it away, you should also explain why (10/47)*(9/46) equals 1.5 outs.

ok. sorry. i'll stop now...

[Isura]

However it is not always correct to count a BD flush as a full 1.5 outs. When there is a lot of action, and/or the board is paired you have to discount your BDF outs, especially with small flushes (less than Q high flush).

[atnels]

I always thought that SSHE makes a little too big of a deal out of backdoor flush potential. You're looking at 4% (and don't forget to discount the 0.046% of the time your running hearts double-pair the board).

To even think about taking this into account, you'd need at least a $10 pot at Party .5/1. If you'll need to call another bet on the turn (so assuming 1.5 BB total) then you have to be sure you'll win a $37.50 pot. Yes, that does happen, but not too often.

I understand that backdoor flushes should really only be taken into account as adding value to other draws; people don't do that. I think that ESPECIALLY when cards are running scarce you finally see a suited ace, limp from EP, then end up calling a bet back to you. The flop comes, you see a single card of your suit... figure you might as well peel one off in a 4 BB pot... and this is all -EV.

[aK13]

I think you made the right play here (on the flop). It's HU now, so you're A over is likely good for 3 outs, plus your backdoor straight and flush draws make your hand about 5.5 outs. At 6 outs you need about 6.7 in the pot -- you're getting 7 plus implied odds for the nut draws so I think make this a worthy call on the flop. You might also consider a raise for a free card since you have position.

[@bsolute_luck]

holy hell, you guys are making this sound incredibly difficult...and maybe it is.

start simple:
1. generally speaking BDFD and BDSD are 1.5 outs a piece, but that is if they are the nuts which you have.

2. many players limp with AJ and even AQ, so you can't count your Aces as full 3 outs. It is called guessimating: say .5 for each because it is HU.

Total outs: ~4 (it's close enough).

Implied odds:
1. how many bets do you figure to bet to get to the river?
2. will your hand be the winning hand?
3. how many will people will be contributing to your winnings?

At this point, you have no one helping, so you're implied odds to the river are guesstimated at: 8BB-2.5BB (the flop bets are sb= 1/2bb). which is about, simply ~4-1

So it is guessimated you have 4 outs with ~4-1 odds. this is a fold for this hand. there are other factors, but starting out figuring them out, don't get scientific or worry about getting it EXACTLY right.

My figuring on this hand: no one else is paying for me on the chance that i'll win this even if i pair my Aces, even if SB is bluffing (which from his position, is doubtful). it just isn't worth the risk. let it go.

[Saint_D]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For a backdoor flush you'd need (10/47)*(9/46) odds to continue, which is worth about 1.5 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
give the guy a chance to figure it out...
sheesh...

and if you're going to give it away, you should also explain why (10/47)*(9/46) equals 1.5 outs.

ok. sorry. i'll stop now...

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't be sorry man. You were teaching the guy to fish and you got run over by the fish monger.

(10/47)*(9/46) = 0.04163

Which is 4.12%

1 out = 1/47 = 2.13%
2 outs = 2/47 = 4.26%

[jaxUp]

the 1.5 accounts for the sometimes higher flush, or pairing/double pairing of the board.

[FishHooks]

The reason why its counted as 1.5 outs instead of just 1 out which mathmatically would be correct to just count it as 1 out, is the implied odds, if you make your flush on the river your going to raise and trap the feild for another 2 bets so you implied out makes this draw worth 1.5 outs.

[numeri]

[Replying without reading others - grunching]

Usually a back door flush draw is counted as 1.5 outs, and your A outs should be discounted to 1.5 (at least - your kicker sucks) since others might also be playing Ax and paired their x. In this hand, you also have back-back-back door straight draw, but I don't think that should even be counted. I give you 3 outs and a flop fold.

Now I'll read others and see how wrong I am. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[FishHooks]

1.5 outs means you have about a 7% chance to hit your draw, when you really have a 4% chance, its 1.5 outs because of implied odds of when you do hit your flush