Help with setting goals

[Scuba Chuck]

I’ve recently made the decision to devote a significant amount of time & energy to playing poker. And I’m torn between the choice of two different options with regards to goal setting. And the difference is between a more conservative approach, and an aggressive approach – Go Figure.

(Before we get too far into this, I have a second source of income still, and will have a large enough bankroll to take on this venture – so please, help me with goal setting.)

My ultimate long term goal is with regards to playing in online and live MTTs. My current objective is to find the most time effective way of producing a monthly $8,000 a month income from poker. Playing 600 $109s a month at a 10% ROI accomplishes this objective (don’t forget rakeback). I currently don’t have the skills to 4 table the $109s (for profit that is), and thus that’s my current goal. But once I reach that goal, well, that’s where things get tricky.

Big picture goals:
1) Make sure poker playing can last as long as possible
2) Focus on my skills as an MTT player.

Number 1 is where I get tripped up. Am I wasting time and money by not focusing on playing more SNGs, so as to maximize income in the short run, in order to payoff and eliminate all debt, in particular, my house?

Can anyone make a reasonable argument against the fact that limiting my expertise to just SNGs could/will have negative income ramifications in the near term (say 2 years).

[Raiser]

Hey Scuba.

I think that focusing on one kind of poker (SNGs in this case) is the best way to make a lot of money. Personally, I've always gotten bored with a particular kind of poker and have moved on to the next thing. For this reason I am just better than average at a lot of games, but am unable to beat any of them for a lot.

If making a lot of money is your goal, I say pick one form, get really good, and do it. I'm sure SNGs have similar earning potential to limit and/or NL ring games. So since you are already well on your way to being very skilled at them, stick with it.

Enjoy.

[Phil Van Sexton]

Why do you want to play MTTs? I'm confused.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]

Why do you want to play MTTs? I'm confused.

[/ QUOTE ]

big scores baby

[gasgod]

In your grand plan, don't neglect building a retirement fund. Poker might not last forever. If your poker income dries up someday, have something to show for it.


GG

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you want to play MTTs? I'm confused.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question. Never thought about that. It's always just been there.

They excite me. I enjoy playing them. The whole reason I started in STTs is to develop some early MTT skills. I've never left that idea.

Why are you confused?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
In your grand plan, don't neglect building a retirement fund

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, I'm a financial planner by trade.

Scuba

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why do you want to play MTTs? I'm confused.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question. Never thought about that. It's always just been there.

They excite me. I enjoy playing them. The whole reason I started in STTs is to develop some early MTT skills. I've never left that idea.

Why are you confused?

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought you were looking for a way to generate a steady income as a part time player. I know very little about MTTs, but I'm guessing the variance is obscene.

Also, I think it might be tough to do part time since they can last for hours.

If you are just entering them for a change of pace and additional profit, that sounds like a good idea.

I guess I didn't understand the question, or maybe there wasn't a question.

[teamdonkey]

if (when?) internet poker dies down some and it becomes much harder to turn out the income people are seeing right now, i'd assume MTTs will be a good alternative for some of today's online pros. I see MTTs as more of a long term skill.

[minwoo]

Scuba,
Do you make more money from SNgs than your occupation? If so, that is majorly depressing. Maybe I should forget that finance degree (which is costing me like $25k a year) and move up to 8 tabling the $55's /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Dude..you ever going to reply to my email? Haha..take your time. No rush.

[raptor517]

i gave up the finance degree after i went to my first class. i came back, loaded up 4 sngs, havent looked back since. holla

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
i gave up the finance degree after i went to my first class. i came back, loaded up 4 sngs, havent looked back since. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

You're too young to realize why that's -EV...no offense

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Dude..you ever going to reply to my email? Haha..take your time. No rush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thought I already did. Either way, I've already started the wheels turning at HQ. I should know something by the end of the week.

Do I make more playing SNGs than my occupation? Not yet, but I expect this month for the first time, yes.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i gave up the finance degree after i went to my first class. i came back, loaded up 4 sngs, havent looked back since. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

You're too young to realize why that's -EV...no offense

[/ QUOTE ]

It's only -EV if he blows all the money on hookers and monitors and Pai Gow. How many other 18-year-olds have the opportunity to put away 20k/year into a retirement account? The overall +EV of a college degree can wait a year or two.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
i gave up the finance degree after i went to my first class. i came back, loaded up 4 sngs, havent looked back since. holla


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



You're too young to realize why that's -EV...no offense

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Get your degree. I've got 8 years of finance related experience. It is something that I will always be able to go back to as I have developed some very strong relationships that will last.

Furthermore, I have already spoken to 20 of my primary clients, and have told them my goals. They all intend to stay with me (and continue to pay me) while I take on these challenges.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I didn't understand the question, or maybe there wasn't a question.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, perhaps you're leading me in the right direction. My goals are to find the way to maximize my poker winnings in the long term. By maximize, I mean $/hr, not total $$$.

[sofere]

Gonna have to agree with Pooh here. Life has much bigger swings in variance than poker...at some point in your life you may have to get a real job for whatever reason (even if you don't foresee it now, it might happen), and a highschool diploma and kickass poker winnings ain't gonna help you.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess I didn't understand the question, or maybe there wasn't a question.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, perhaps you're leading me in the right direction. My goals are to find the way to maximize my poker winnings in the long term. By maximize, I mean $/hr, not total $$$.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it's $/hr you're after then multi-tabling STTs or short handed limit is probably the way to go.

STTs have by far the least amount of variance of the two.

It would appear to me that you have a romantic notion of MTTs being a 'higher' form of poker. You may be right and since you seem to be drawn to the idea of playing them, I'd work that into your STT or short handed limit regimen.

Yugoslav

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why do you want to play MTTs? I'm confused.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question. Never thought about that. It's always just been there.

They excite me. I enjoy playing them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Enjoyment and excitement aren't necessarily complimentary to maximizing your hourly earn. I think the answer to maximizing hourly earn is pretty clearly focusing on SNG play.

Now maximizing utility on the other hand...

[Misfire]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you want to play MTTs? I'm confused.

[/ QUOTE ]

He just wants to compete with Phil Helmuth whoring for camera time at the WSOP. j/k

Seriously, not that I'm great at either, but my more recent fixation on SNG's has yeilded improvements in my MTT play as well... I don't think the two are mutually exclusive.

[microbet]

You are a financial planner and you told your clients that your plan is to play poker. You could put that scene in a movie for sure.

[Degen]

get your degree

i tried playing full-time and now i play in my spare time (though still 25+ hours a week) while i work and i must say that i am a heck of a lot healthier, happier and more productive (read higher ROI) while having this balance.

i know it may seem glamorous to you now...but trust me, six months in you'll wish you were working for Merril Lynch.


Degen

[Degen]

ditto

Degen

[sofere]

I wish I were working for Merrill Lynch even now.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I wish I were working for Merrill Lynch even now.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's pretty funny (at least to me). I'm leaving Morgan Stanley.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
I wish I were working for Merrill Lynch even now.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wish I was playing 10k buyin tournaments with a million dollar + bankroll, not working for Merrill Lynch. And yet I stay in school, (at least for now) so that I can always fall back on one, or the other.

[raptor517]

sigh, someone else that looks down upon my knowledge of the world primarily based on my age. its definitely NOT +ev for me to be in school right now. with a degree, getting the BEST finance job i could right out of college, i would MAYBE get around 80k a year. thats the BEST i could hope for. why not put away 200k a year for a couple years, then when this cash cow dries up, go back to school. ill still look like im 19 in 2 years anyway, cuz ill only be 20. trust me, im not just some dumb kid thats too young to plan ahead. this is planning ahead. holla

[Degen]

sounds like a great plan man...i personally wish you the best


but for me going to college was not so much about getting job training and setting myself up to make lots of money. it was an education. it was an awesome experience that i will cherish for the rest of my life. it is the place where i met the people with whom i am now doing business and the majority of my friends.

the experience has also given me a host of intangible skills that i could not possibly put into words.

why not get your degree and play 40 tourneys each night? you'd still be loaded compared to all of your classmates. my senior year i played roughly as much poker as i studied and it worked out just fine.


do what you want but take it from somebody who had multiple chances and oppotunities to drop out for all the right reasons and stuck it out anyway...get your degree.


Degen

[adanthar]

What's your current ROI at the 33's and can you play them as a semi full time job consistently for a year or two? That's your best bet for an 8K a month profit (or, do the same thing at a higher level, of course...but the swings get bigger.)

MTT's are far more swingy than SNG's will ever be, and I say that as someone who's up 8K this week playing them part time.

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In your grand plan, don't neglect building a retirement fund

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, I'm a financial planner by trade.

Scuba

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/blush.gif

GG

[raptor517]

to each and their own i suppose. thanks for the words though. and for the record, i dont plan to NEVER get my degree. i was just at the wrong place at the wrong time. too many idiots that only care about scraping together enough beer money for the weekend. not my kinda thing. holla

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
What's your current ROI at the 33's and can you play them as a semi full time job consistently for a year or two? That's your best bet for an 8K a month profit (or, do the same thing at a higher level, of course...but the swings get bigger.)


[/ QUOTE ]

Those are my thoughts, and the $33 ROI is adequate to more than adequate. What's your BR advice for the $109s for someone like me? Pretend/Consider that this would be my only income.

[Khern]

FWIW, I disagree with most here. I think far too much imprtance is place on college when there are other opportunities. Maybe some of this is bitterness over finishing my CS degree late in '01 and not finding anything. I went back to grad school just as so many jobs were going to India, so I just said screw it and started playing poker. Just remember that a degree is no garuntee of employment, and in the end the people, if it doesn't work out, the people who told you to go to college will often just shrugg and say it should've worked out better... or worse, blame you... and go back to whatever they were doing.

Times have changed over the last few decades, but I still think there's a lot of room in the world for succesful people, who are happy with there life experiance, and who never got a degree.

-John

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What's your current ROI at the 33's and can you play them as a semi full time job consistently for a year or two? That's your best bet for an 8K a month profit (or, do the same thing at a higher level, of course...but the swings get bigger.)


[/ QUOTE ]

Those are my thoughts, and the $33 ROI is adequate to more than adequate. What's your BR advice for the $109s for someone like me? Pretend/Consider that this would be my only income.

[/ QUOTE ]

11k to be safe, some of the best 100 and 215 players on these boards have had 50 buyin drops.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
11k to be safe, some of the best 100 and 215 players on these boards have had 50 buyin drops.

[/ QUOTE ]

Plan is to maintain a $20k bankroll. But I'm seriously thinking $50k makes more sense.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
11k to be safe, some of the best 100 and 215 players on these boards have had 50 buyin drops.

[/ QUOTE ]

Plan is to maintain a $20k bankroll. But I'm seriously thinking $50k makes more sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

imo a winning player couldn't lose a 20k bankroll at the 109s, but if more makes you more comfortable then that is best.

[rickr]

Scuba, are you sure about your numbers? Here's what I get..

Entry Fee For Tournement $100.00
Rake Fee $9.00
Number of games played at a time 4
In The Money Percent 36
Number of tournements played 150
Percent of 1st 33
Percent of 2nd 35
Percent of 3rd 32
Rake Back Percent 25
Total Money Invested $16,350.00
Hours Invested 46.875



Net Earnings (including rakeback) $1,686.00
Average earnings per tournement $11.24
Hourly Pay Rate $35.97
Return on Investment 10.31%


I think your going to need more like a 15% ROI. This would allow you to do it in less than 40 hours. Something like this...

Entry Fee For Tournement $100.00
Rake Fee $9.00
Number of games played at a time 4
In The Money Percent 37
Number of tournements played 120
Percent of 1st 35
Percent of 2nd 34
Percent of 3rd 31
Rake Back Percent 25
Total Money Invested $13,080.00
Hours Invested 37.5



Net Earnings (including rakeback) $1,971.60
Average earnings per tournement $16.43
Hourly Pay Rate $52.58
Return on Investment 15.07%


Later,
Rick

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Hourly Pay Rate $35.97


[/ QUOTE ]

Yuk. I avg 5.3 games an hour at the $33s. With a 25% ROI, not including rakeback, that's $43/hr.

Here's what I concluded.

600 SNGs a month
$109s
Total Money Invested: $65,400
Hours Invested: ~40
ROI: 10% (effort on conservative estimates)
Poker Earnings (not including rakeback) $6,540
Rakeback = $9 x 600 x .275 = $1,485
Total Earnings $8,025

Hourly Pay Rate: ~$50/hr

If these numbers are accurate, rather than conservative, I would prefer to learn to 8 table the $33s.

[1C5]

Chuck, a question from Irie's post. He said many good players have had so-so ROIs over 1000s of games in the 33s. How many games have you played in the 33s and what is your ROI at?

[eastbay]

IMO, setting goals like this is kind of a waste of time and potentially dangerous. I don't see how your results can be any better than simply playing your best with the time you have available at a limit you know you can win, and finding your optimal level as you go.

It's kind of like walking into the gym and saying "Last week I could do 8 reps at 245 so this week I am going to do 10." Well no, as long as you're pushing yourself to the max every time, you're going to do what you can do, and no amount of deciding that you're going to do more is going to change that if you're not ready. It's more to the point to say "I'm going to do as many as I can this week." This way you never undershoot (maybe you could do 11), and you don't risk injury trying to reach an arbitrary target that may or may not be appropriate.

Likewise, if you set a goal like $8k a month, it potentially sets you up for the wrong mindset where you may be inclined to chase or push at limits you're not ready for (skip $55? not a good idea, IMO), especially if you're lagging on your target and feel the need to make up ground.

Play your best. Find your optimal level as you go. The rest takes care of itself.

eastbay

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Play your best. Find your optimal level as you go. The rest takes care of itself.


[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Eastbay. Very good advice. Over the past 72 hours, I've learned a lot with regards to goal-setting within the poker confines. Communications on the board, as well as many private PMs with some current and noncurrent STT posters have helped me quite a bit.

A couple of months ago, I wrote that if you intend to make this your fulltime job, you'd know. IN that you wouldn't need to ask. That isn't my issue.

But what I have learned, and I should have realized. Your goals are very difficult to articulate other than to always play to the best of your abilities at all times.

Scuba

[Blarg]

Very interesting thread.

I'm curious to see if you can get comfortable 8-tabling, and if you find you lose much of your ROI when doing it. I find I occasionally slow down quite a bit when multitabling SNG's, as sometimes I really need to turn a decision over in my head for a bit. I'm very new to multi-tabling them, though, and just to SNG's in general. I don't know if I've played much more than 50 or so of them.

[Degen]

"Just remember that a degree is no garuntee of employment"

"but for me going to college was not so much about getting job training and setting myself up to make lots of money. it was an education. it was an awesome experience that i will cherish for the rest of my life"


Its not like grinding it out in a tournament and then getting a fat payday at the end. So you've had a bad run of it lately, the economy has been horrible.


I'd be willing to bet a hefty sum that in 15 years you'll be better off than if you hadn't gone to college, and very happy that you did go.

Giving a young person advice on whether or not they should go to college based upon your bad experience with a crappy economy, IMO, is a bad move.


Degen

[Mr_J]

"And I’m torn between the choice of two different options with regards to goal setting. And the difference is between a more conservative approach, and an aggressive approach"

Very easy answer. Aim for the aggressive goal but be content achieving the conservative goal. The idea is that the aggressive goal motivates you, while the conservative goal keeps you happy.

[byronkincaid]

I'd forget rakeback if I were you. Party are gonna kill it off soon imo. I'm just treating it as a bonus for as long as it lasts.

[Blarg]

What is it that makes you think they're going to kill it off? And why soon?

[byronkincaid]

PokerNOW=RakebackNOT, also numerous posts on RGP and the Zoo from affiliates with accounts locked this month because they are suspected of giving rakeback. If you have everyone on individual trackers or you haven't signed anyone up recently then you're account is locked. Party are going public and they're not allowed to allow rakeback. I'm not happy, rakeback pays my mortgage.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
The idea is that the aggressive goal motivates you, while the conservative goal keeps you happy.


[/ QUOTE ]


correction, the conservative goals pay the bills.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Party are going public and they're not allowed to allow rakeback. I'm not happy, rakeback pays my mortgage.


[/ QUOTE ]

That is rumor, and not truth. In fact, your past few comments are all half truths. It's always easy to take a worst case scenario, PokerNow, and express it in all other avenues. IMO, rakeback is like a coupon. There are many shoppers who use coupons to buy groceries, etc. While there are many shoppers who don't. If we lived in a world without coupons, then why wouldn't the manufacturers just sell their product at the price with coupons? Party's mistake was underestimating the influence of their skins on their own clients. PokerNow abused that relationship.

Be careful, but I really doubt you see rakeback disappear. The IPO has just pushed this issue with PokerNow to the forefront. It's a problem they want **cleaned** up before the public can read the books. You'll notice that some of the affiliates have nice rakeback deals directly through party poker again. Party has made a stand. They want their clients back, rakeback or not.

Scuba

[Blarg]

I don't know the securities laws or why rakeback would be violating them, if that's what this is supposed to be about.

I'm not sure why logically a poker site wouldn't be allowed to have rakeback. All kinds of major corporations have "preferred customer" discounts and clubs and such. Giving people different prices for the same goods is legitimate elsewhere, so I'm wondering why Party's rakebacks should be considered any differently.

[byronkincaid]

[ QUOTE ]
In fact, your past few comments are all half truths

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF. What past few comments?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
In fact, your past few comments are all half truths


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



WTF. What past few comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

For one:

[ QUOTE ]
Party are going public and they're not allowed to allow rakeback.

[/ QUOTE ]

Party is giong public, that's true.

I'm just trying to put an end to rumor mongering.

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know the securities laws or why rakeback would be violating them, if that's what this is supposed to be about.

I'm not sure why logically a poker site wouldn't be allowed to have rakeback. All kinds of major corporations have "preferred customer" discounts and clubs and such. Giving people different prices for the same goods is legitimate elsewhere, so I'm wondering why Party's rakebacks should be considered any differently.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because stockholders (many of whom are clueless about IGaming except they know it's what's hot right now) would have the mindset of "well everyone who signs up is going to do it under rakeback, so that cuts 30% of the profits off the top" when in reality we know/assume it's a very minor number of the playerbase who plays under rakeback.

If a company announced they were going to have a 30% decrease in revenues their stock would probably tank 50% because stockholders are irrational.

[byronkincaid]

Me:Party are going public and they're not allowed to allow rakeback. I'm not happy, rakeback pays my mortgage.

You:That is rumor, and not truth. In fact, your past few comments are all half truths

Me:WTF. What past few comments?

You:For one:

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Party are going public and they're not allowed to allow rakeback.



I'll ask again. Seeing as you have called me a liar. Please could you tell me what past few comments are half truths.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
PokerNow abused that relationship ... Party has made a stand. They want their clients back, rakeback or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

My apologies for getting way off topic here, but can anyone explain a couple things to me?

1. What did Pokernow do differently than Empire, Eurobet, etc?

2. How can Party try to shut down rakeback at one skin and let the others continue to provide it?

I signed up for rakeback at pokernow right before the [censored] went down (lucky me). I've been waiting on signing up for rakeback at Empire or some other skin because I can't logically figure out how Party let's them continue to offer it while putting the hammer down on Pokernow.

Thanks,

[teamdonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
Me:Party are going public and they're not allowed to allow rakeback. I'm not happy, rakeback pays my mortgage.

You:That is rumor, and not truth. In fact, your past few comments are all half truths

Me:WTF. What past few comments?

You:For one:

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Party are going public and they're not allowed to allow rakeback.



I'll ask again. Seeing as you have called me a liar. Please could you tell me what past few comments are half truths.

[/ QUOTE ]

anyone else find the humor in byron being mad that scuba has only provided half the proof about his half truths?

Bradley, noone will be "announcing" that their revenues will decrease 30%, it's a policy that's been in place for a long time and in fact increases their revenue. If your earlier arguement were true, noone would buy stock in companies that offer discounts, rebates, coupons, or any other special offers.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
For one:


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Party are going public and they're not allowed to allow rakeback.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Party is giong public, that's true.

I'm just trying to put an end to rumor mongering.


[/ QUOTE ]

Byron, I'm not calling you a liar. I am just tired of these rumors that rakeback is going to disappear. That's the second half of the half truth. Thought that was implied. The other part of your sentence above is pure rumor, and untrue. From a business standpoint, it doesn't make any sense. If so, in a free market system, we'd find a casino that just had a 7% vig.

[XChamp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PokerNow abused that relationship ... Party has made a stand. They want their clients back, rakeback or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

My apologies for getting way off topic here, but can anyone explain a couple things to me?

1. What did Pokernow do differently than Empire, Eurobet, etc?

2. How can Party try to shut down rakeback at one skin and let the others continue to provide it?

I signed up for rakeback at pokernow right before the [censored] went down (lucky me). I've been waiting on signing up for rakeback at Empire or some other skin because I can't logically figure out how Party let's them continue to offer it while putting the hammer down on Pokernow.

Thanks,

[/ QUOTE ]

I would like to know the answer to this also.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
My apologies for getting way off topic here, but can anyone explain a couple things to me?

1. What did Pokernow do differently than Empire, Eurobet, etc?

2. How can Party try to shut down rakeback at one skin and let the others continue to provide it?

I signed up for rakeback at pokernow right before the [censored] went down (lucky me). I've been waiting on signing up for rakeback at Empire or some other skin because I can't logically figure out how Party let's them continue to offer it while putting the hammer down on Pokernow.

Thanks,



[/ QUOTE ]

My affiliate posted something about this issue. I can't find his post, he must have taken it down. This is the Pokersource Online people. And then, I've thrown in some of the other comments from their forum as well.

Essentially, the deal between Party Poker and their skins is to help them attract "new" customers. In fact, my understanding is that they went this route as an alternate marketing route for it's cost effectiveness. And with Empire and Eurobet, they followed the intended purpose of Party's business plan. PokerNow came online, and instead of marketing to "new" clients, they actually just went after Party's clients, by offering rakeback to essentially anybody. This loss of income by Party was very noticeable, and I'm thinking traceable.

From here on out, I think you can assume the rest.

Regarding what will come out of Empire or Eurobet. Well, (emphasized) some people on the forum on my affiliate's website seem to think that it could be turned off for Empire or Eurobet, but I really doubt it. Furthermore, there seems to be some harmony in the notion that if you have rakeback directly throgh party, you're **safe.**

Scuba