Good fold ?

[Deuce2High]

***** Hand History for Game 1859002319 *****
NL Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:11090451 Level:7 Blinds(200/400) - Thursday, April 07, 14:04:17 EDT 2005
Table Table 35031 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: Hey_2_Goober ( $640 )
Seat 5: jpryan ( $2880 )
Seat 7: EV1L666 ( $2360 )
Seat 10: Pwnasaurus ( $2120 )
Trny:11090451 Level:7
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Pwnasaurus [ Qh Ah ]
jpryan is all-In [2880]
EV1L666 folds.
Your time bank will become active in less than 20 seconds. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
Pwnasaurus folds.

[raptor517]

ah, hes learning /images/graemlins/wink.gif good fold. holla

[fiyah]

Raptor,

If the raiser had 800 less chips and the short stack had 800 more chips, would this move to an autocall instead?

[NegativeEV]

This is a pretty clear fold. ICM will tell you that you need to win > 64% of the time to make this a call. This situation is MUCH different than the other AQ scenario that Scuba_Chuck posted with the survey.

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
If the raiser had 800 less chips and the short stack had 800 more chips, would this move to an autocall instead?

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you are in a very similar situation to the AQ hand that Scuba_Chuck posted with the survey and you need to consider other factors including what you believe your skill/knowledge advantage to be. ICM says you need to win ~ 58% of the time given your proposed stacks. 58% vs 64% is a pretty big difference.

[fiyah]

Please link me or explain how you are figuring ICM. Thanks..

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
Please link me or explain how you are figuring ICM. Thanks..

[/ QUOTE ]

Do a search on Dethgrind and "ICM" as he gave a great tutorial. IF you can't find it, some smarty will have that post saved and can give you the link if you make a separate new post asking for it. Here is the link to the dethgrind ICM calculator (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html) . If you can't figure this junk out with dethgrind's post and the calculator lemme know and I'll respond with a more demonstrative post.


EDIT: Actually, I think the ICM calculator site has a user manual that should help you if you can't find the dethgrind post.

[kyro]

I call. And apparently I'm wrong. Talk to me, raptor, ilya, daliman, irieguy. Because obviously I'm leaking a bit here.

[raptor517]

the reason you dont call here is because in the long run, you lose money, even if you have the best hand, even if the villian is pushing any 2. AQ against any random hand is something like 60%. you dont want to take a 60/40 and risk bubbling when there is a stack that has 600 chips. your edge in sngs comes from situations like this when you know folding is the right play. you must use your abilities to steal the blinds. a good player is always pushing, never calling. holla

[curtains]

Well sometimes a good player calls. Whenever someone says a good player is always pushing and never calling, they are always being way too simplistic. However I would definitely fold here, as in this case your motto rings true. Once it gets to 2-3 handed though, you should be making a lot of calls preflop in some situations, especially when the blinds are high.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I call. And apparently I'm wrong. Talk to me, raptor, ilya, daliman, irieguy. Because obviously I'm leaking a bit here.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I'm sure you don't know this, but I'm very confident that NegativeEV gives very solid advice. It's too bad he doesn't post more often. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

"Talk to me...."

Let the math do the talking. Do the math...