All-in with 44

[chopchoi]

NL SNG Blinds are 25/50. I have 1,200 chips, in SB with 44. It folds around to the button, who limps. The button barely has me covered, BB has about 550 chips.

I push. My rationale is this: If the button had a pocket pair, he would have raised 1st in. So, the only thing I need to be afraid of is that BB might have a bigger pair. This will only happen about 1 time in 20, and he may even fold a low pair like 5's or 6's.
I believe that this play has positive EV because the steal will work 85% of the time, and even when it doesn't,the vast majority of the time I will have a coin-flip.

[syphlix]

mmm... well my take on it is... that yea it will prob work most of the time... button will most likely fold...

but... is it really worth the chance that BB calls (since he's semi short stacked... and just about anything he cal.ls w/ either has you dominated or coinflip...

and what if button was limping w? something nice?...

true none of this is very likely... i just don't see the point of risking all my chips to win 100 chips...

[chopchoi]

It's not just the 100 chips. There's also the chance to double-up on the coinflip. With blinds at 25/50, and about to go up to 50/100, I think I'd rather have a 50% shot at 2,400 chips than a safe 1,200. So, pushing gives me 2 ways to win. If they fold, I'm up 100 chips. If they call and I win, I'm real happy. And if they call and I lose, oh well, I wasn't in great shape to begin with.

[J-Lo]

Isn't this way too ealry to push? Why not complete and go for set? How many people were left? I'd prefer to limp in and if u really want, play some poker. But i set it, or forget it, too early.

[The Yugoslavian]

You have the right idea but the wrong risk/reward ratio.

Yugoslav

[raptor517]

bah, that push is no good. you could easily be getting trapped by the button who has a monster. if its just you and the BB, push all day. since its not, consider completing and try to flop a set. holla

[Unparagoned]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe that this play has positive EV because the steal will work 85% of the time, and even when it doesn't,the vast majority of the time I will have a coin-flip.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wooooahhh, wait a minute. You think the vast majority of the time you are called here, you are in a coinflip? I think you are wrong. You will be in a coinflip sometimes, yes, but a high proportion of the time you are called here you are going to be dominated. BB will probably look down at AQ and say to herself, "I hate folding this hand!" AA-QQ are definitely calling. Smaller pockets may call depending on the texture of the table, your image, their image, etc. I would not be surprised to see JJ or TT turned over. AK is probably calling here. But what other hands to you expect people to turn over? I haven't done the math, but I think before you decide this is a great play that you should use, you need to actually determine your EV.

[chopchoi]

[ QUOTE ]
You have the right idea but the wrong risk/reward ratio.

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

So, how big should the pot be in relation to my stack to try this against a limper and BB?

[11t]

I do not think you are gaining a large enough pot to push all of your chips into the middle. If this was at the 50/100 level I would only do it versus somebody who was limping a lot preflop and folding to a raise.

I would be more inclined to calling and seeing how the flop hits and perhaps betting 100 at a ragged flop or look to hit a set. Or perhaps raising it to 150 then betting 250 at any flop that hits if the button calls. If the BB pushed versus my raise I would probably fold.

[JustinH]

I believe he's saying it has a +EV for every play, not everytime he is called.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have the right idea but the wrong risk/reward ratio.

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

So, how big should the pot be in relation to my stack to try this against a limper and BB?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's an option on level 4 but becomes a good option on level 5.

Also, you want to be sure the button limps in these situations....if he hasn't all game then his limp could be dangerous (per Raptor's comment). But if the blinds are high enough I'm liable to be pushing anyway...

Btw, I care more about how the button plays and the blind sizes than the cards I'm holding.

Yugoslav

[curtains]

Few problems in your thinking.

"the steal will work 85% of the time and the vast majority of the time itll be a coin flip". Actually the times that your steal doesn't work, you are quite likely to be a huge underdog, as people are a lot more likely to limp on button and call an allin with a big pair, as opposed to some garbage like KJo.

I would almost never move allin here just to win 125. I prefer to call and just play poker. If you had 500 chips it's a different story, but here I just dont like the risk/reward ratio.

[curtains]

btw another reason I like just calling preflop is because this move is clearly +EV , but with a lot less risk.

It's possible that moving allin with 44 here actually is +EV, but I don't think its more +EV than calling, and if it somehow is, the risk that I'm entailing is a little too great in my opinion, and it will negate all my later advantages for a very small gain on this hand.

[curtains]

Also, IF you plan to raise, feel free to have the courage to raise to like 275 instead of allin. If you get reraised by the button you are almost always up against a slowplayed overpair, and they will rarely simply call for 225 more.

Sometimes just moving allin makes poker easier, but it throws away the chance to make more informed decisions.

[John Hurst]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I'd rather have a 50% shot at 2,400 chips than a safe 1,200.

[/ QUOTE ] I do not agree with this statement at all. There will be better opportunities with a better risk/reward ratio.

[chopchoi]

[ QUOTE ]
I think before you decide this is a great play that you should use, you need to actually determine your EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not exactly sure how to go about determining the E.V. I think the steal works 85% of time. 3% of the time, BB calls with a hand that dominates mine. 1% of the time button calls with same. Of the 4 times I am dominated, I will suck out once and loose 3. So far, out of 100 hands, I will win 125 85x, lose 1,200 once, loose 550 twice, and win 675 once (I am assuming I suck-out against BB instead of button). So, out of these 89 hands, I will win 11,300, and lose only 2,300, for an EV of a little more than 100 chips per hand. That much is easy.

The hard part is 11% of the time I get called with a coin-flip. However, my EV here depends on who calls. If BB calls, I'm only risking 550 chips, whereas if button calls, I'm risking my whole stack. Plus, very rarely they might both call with coin-flip hasnds, or one might call with a coin flip, and the other might call with a hand that has me dominated. It seems too complicated to figure all of this out. However, since the pocket pair has a slight edge in the coinflip, and since there is already money in the pot to sweeten the odds, my expectation on the coinflip hands must be positive as well.

[curtains]

Also JohnHurst, it is absolutely NOT likely to be a coinflip if he's called by the big stack. Thats just delusional thinking right there. Who calls with 2 big cards preflop and then calls for 1200 more. It's likely that if called, the button was slowplaying a big pair.

[willie]

meh, i'd say this is an unncessary risk.

i limp/ check fold a non flopped set for the most part here. you're risking WAY too much to take down 100 chips.

[John Hurst]

Exactly. Several flaws in his thought process but the main theme is risk/reward ratio. He is risking too much for too little. And even if pushing is slightly +EV there are higher EV options here.

[chopchoi]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, IF you plan to raise, feel free to have the courage to raise to like 275 instead of allin. If you get reraised by the button you are almost always up against a slowplayed overpair, and they will rarely simply call for 225 more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like this play. Many players feel that once they are already in the pot, they have to call a raise of 4-5x BB. The button is liable to call this with QJo or A5s. When he calls, I am not going to be able to bet with any confidence unless I flop a set. I will either have to check/fold or bluff. If I'm just going to check/fold, then the raise was stupid to begin with. If I'm going to bluff, then why not do it before the flop, instead of giving him a chance to catch?

[curtains]

Let me ask you if most players feel this way, why is it that the large majority of the time I make a raise like this from the blinds with a real hand, that they fold. And I mean seriously over 75% of the time. I think a lot people have serious misconceptions about how common certain events are.

[chopchoi]

[ QUOTE ]

Let me ask you if most players feel this way, why is it that the large majority of the time I make a raise like this from the blinds with a real hand, that they fold. And I mean seriously over 75% of the time. I think a lot people have serious misconceptions about how common certain events are.

[/ QUOTE ]

What limits do you play? I play $5 or $10, and I can't count the number of times I have raised 5x BB and been called by an Axs or a QJo who has already limped.

[curtains]

It's probably because you don't pay enough attention to the times you just take it down. I have not so much experience at the $5-$10s, but I have a lot fo experience at everything from $22-$215s, and even at the $22s, people fold there a large majority of the time preflop.

Anyway I don't like raising, I like calling. I just think 275 should accomplish CLOSE to the same thing in most games, with much less risk.

[UttBuggly]

[ QUOTE ]
you're risking WAY too much to take down 100 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nail on the head. In a ring game, maybe. In a tournament, close gambles are bad news. Limp with 44 and see if the flop hits you nice.

[citanul]

this push stinks, even if it might be math-wise a +cEV proposition.

citanul

[teamdonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
So, out of these 89 hands, I will win 11,300, and lose only 2,300, for an EV of a little more than 100 chips per hand. That much is easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

The other 11%, the "coin flip" hands, dont have to be more complicated. You figure to go in as a 55/45 favorite, so its pretty safe to assume you maintain your 100 chip +EV per hand here. The numbers you used to get that +100 look reasonable.

-Curtains, you've said while it may be +EV, just completing might be more so. I agree that completing is +EV, but i don't think its anywhere near 100 chips, do you?

-Raptor, what kind of monster would you limp with here on the button with an unopened pot? The only one i would even consider is Aces, and most times not even with those. Rarely do i let the remote chance someone has aces and played them strangely affect my decisions.

-Chopchoi, i like this kind of play and use it with good success, but normally with 2-3 limpers and a smaller stack. I may be more liberal with it after reading this post.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
Chopchoi, i like this kind of play and use it with good success, but normally with 2-3 limpers and a smaller stack. I may be more liberal with it after reading this post.

[/ QUOTE ]

the reason you like that play in that spot is it's a good play. chopchoi's play is not the same play, and is not a good play.

the reason curtains likes the idea of completing is that while 44 will often win a small pot here uncontested, the only way that it wins a big pot here is by risking your whole stack in a bad spot. limping, however, risks very few chips while opening a doorway to far more risk free ways of winning big pots.

citanul

[teamdonkey]

i get the concept, just dont like ignoring math. lets make some assumptions and figure EV on a blind completion. Assume the BB is going to check, if you miss your set you fold, if you hit it you'll stack either the BB or button. BB has 500 more chips, button has you covered and you've got 1175 more chips, so say if you hit your set thats 987 chips (average of the two plus blinds). You flop a set 11.8% of the time.

0.118 * 987 = 116.5 when you call and win
0.882 * -25 = -22 when you call and lose

these (poor) assumptions put completing at +EV 94 chips, slightly lower than pushing. If it really is that close, you're probably right and completing is better than pushing here.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I'd rather have a 50% shot at 2,400 chips than a safe 1,200.

[/ QUOTE ]

Learn about ICM.

[curtains]

Teamdonkey, your assumptions are terrible (although at least you admitted it). How can you even dream of assuming that if you hit a set, you will double up from one of the two remaining players. It's a terrible assumption, sometimes you'll just win a tiny pot and sometimes you'll even lose!!

Also you don't have +100 Chip EV by just moving allin. That would assume they fold preflop every single time, which they won't and they will sometimes call with pairs that are higher than 44. If your opponents will fold every single time or at best call with overcards than obviously you should move allin. The problme is that they will often have overpairs when they call, in which case you are crushed.

As I've repeated many times, if you go allin and are called, you will often be dominated. This is not some simple coin flip situation if you get called, and saying it is such, is simply absurd, yet has been repeated over and over.

[citanul]

what he said.

citanul

[teamdonkey]

i know they weren't ideal - sometimes the BB will push preflop, sometimes it'll get checked down and you'll win unimproved, sometimes your set will lose to a higher set/flush/straight etc. It was a generalization used to make quick calculations. For the record, do think its high or low? Too high right? I think so to. I was trying to give your arguement the benefit of the doubt.

[ QUOTE ]
Also you don't have +100 Chip EV by just moving allin.

[/ QUOTE ]

why? i thought ChopChoi did a decent job of putting a chip EV value on this situation. Vary rarely will the button call you, and even a loose BB would need something in the top 8-10% of hands to call. Taking this down preflop 85% of the time is reasonable. He assumes 3% of the time the BB calls and dominates him, 1% of the time the button calls and dominates. BB will randomly have 99-AA 3% of the time, so that number sounds about right. In these cases hes a 80/20 dog. The other 11% of the time he's called (say 8% from BB and 3% from button), he's a 55/45 favorite, yes? so thats:

0.85 * 125 = 106.25 both fold
0.03 * 0.8 * -575 = -13.8 BB calls, dominates you, and wins
0.01 * 0.8 * -1200 = -9.6 button calls, dominates, and wins
0.03 * 0.2 * 675 = 4.05 BB calls, dominates, you suck out
0.01 * 0.2 * 1325 = 2.65 button calls, dominates, you suck out
0.08 * 0.55 * 675 = 29.7 BB calls, coin flip, you win
0.08 * 0.45 * -575 = -20.7 BB calls, coin flip, you lose
0.03 * 0.55 * 1325 = 21.9 button calls, coin flip, you win
0.03 * 0.45 * -1200 = -16.2 button calls, coin flip, you lose

This comes out to +104.25. I'm not sure its the best play, but you're definately right about it not being a coin flip.

[teamdonkey]

and with this thread in mind tonight, 77 in the BB (t50) with 3 limpers and a stack of 900, i took Curtain's advice and made it 250 to go. Took down the pot preflop and couldn't decide if i was happy it worked, or guilty for not sticking to my guns... maybe i can blame it on a slightly different situation /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[curtains]

This is a different situation as you are obviously more likely to be called when there are 3 limpers. I also don't like your preflop raise, as you are almost pot committed if reraised (which some of these guys will do with overcards).

In this situation allin is more appropriate than your 44 situation (although I would check).

[ReDeYES88]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, IF you plan to raise, feel free to have the courage to raise to like 275 instead of allin. If you get reraised by the button you are almost always up against a slowplayed overpair, and they will rarely simply call for 225 more.

Sometimes just moving allin makes poker easier, but it throws away the chance to make more informed decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

. . one of the other problems with moving in here at the 25/50 level is that is OBVIOUSLY a steal, and will be perceived by the opponents as such (more so as you move up in buy-ins, of course).

This is one of those hands where either the BB or Button might have a pretty good feeling that they are slightly ahead of your weak Ace or low pair, but muck anyway and not take the chance of busting at this point in the game. Yeah, good immediate results, but with long term consequences.

One of the underlying problems with this type of steal this early is that you have given your opponents a good hint as to how aggressive you might be later, in effect loosening up their calling standards when you continue to push in later rounds. Every push you make erodes their discipline a little bit each time, eroding your FE along with it. I prefer to have them stay super-tight as late as possible, and would use a slightly stronger than normal raise in level 3 with a +1k stack if on a steal. That being said, I agree with curtains and I would complete for t25 more and save my big steals for the next round onward.

[chopchoi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I'd rather have a 50% shot at 2,400 chips than a safe 1,200.

[/ QUOTE ]

Learn about ICM.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't even know what ICM is. Please explain.

[teamdonkey]

ICM is a tool that calculates how much real money your chips are actually worth. When you buy into a 10+1, you have 800 chips and they're worth $10. If you're down to the final 2 and you each have 4000 chips, your chips are worth $40 (half way between 1st and 2nd place money). If you have 5 times as many chips as you started with, why are they only worth 4 times as much? Because chips change value as the tournament progresses. What this means in practice is, taking a 50/50 gamble is a bad idea because when you win you have less than twice what you started with (not your number of chips, but what they're actually worth). You need to have better odds in order to make it a smart gamble.

this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/favlinker.php?Cat=&Entry=81976&F_Board=singletable &Thread=1122239&partnumber=&postmarker=) thread explains how to use ICM calculations

[chopchoi]

Thanks, Donkey. O.K., now I see that a 1,200 chip stack is worth more than half of a 2,400 stack, so maybe I was wrong to say I would rather have a 50% chance at 2,400 than a sure 1,200. But I'm not sure. I can not play my A game on a short stack. I either get too tight or too aggressive, and make lots of mistakes. So it might be the case that, while in general, 1,200 chips are worth more than half of 2,400, this does not hold true for me personally.

[citanul]

there are lots of people who think this way. it is dumb. the logic goes like this "i find it easy to play the big stack, therefor having a big stack is worth more to me than x, so i gamble to get big stacks."

the much more logical way to approach the problem is to identify it and then realize the solution:

problem: playing different sized stacks takes different skills, and i don't think i have the skills to play some of those stack sizes.

solution: work on your game.

citanul

[chopchoi]

[ QUOTE ]
there are lots of people who think this way. it is dumb. the logic goes like this "i find it easy to play the big stack, therefor having a big stack is worth more to me than x, so i gamble to get big stacks."

the much more logical way to approach the problem is to identify it and then realize the solution:

problem: playing different sized stacks takes different skills, and i don't think i have the skills to play some of those stack sizes.

solution: work on your game.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

I definately need to work on my game. At the same time, however, I think that big stacks are easier to play for everyone, and this difference might make them more valuable than ICM says they are. When you are a short stack, other players try you push you around. Your bluffs are more likely to be called. You can't bet for info, or play back at an opponent just because you think he is weak. etc. etc. etc. So, I think there is some value in having a big stack that ICM does not account for.

[curtains]

Chopchoi, since you love doubling up so much, assuming you are playing a $22 buyin would you then pay $44 to start with a 2k stack? What about $66 to start with a 3k stack.

[curtains]

btw replace 2000 with 1600 and 3000 with 2400 /images/graemlins/smile.gif