The 2-to-1 Pot Odds Theory

[EasilyFound]

I posted this in the "Poker Theory" forum, but did not get an answer. So I'm gonna post it here:

I'm mostly thinking about No Limit tournament play, but I guess the rule applies across the board for Hold'em.

If you are getting 2-to-1 pot odds to call a preflop all-in raise by your opponent (let's say you raise preflop, and are re-raised all-in by a shorter stack), is it correct to say that the price is right here to call and see five cards?

I ask because I saw the most recent episode of WPT, and a hand came up where the button raised, was re-raised, and getting 2-to-1 to call. Sexton was surprised the button folded, despite crappy hand, becasue the button was getting more than 2-to-1 to call.

And, if the price is right to call in that situation, does the same rule apply if the re-raiser is not all-in and has a deep stack? Are the 2-to-1 pot odds a good price to see a flop or no?

[Phil Van Sexton]

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And, if the price is right to call in that situation, does the same rule apply if the re-raiser is not all-in and has a deep stack? Are the 2-to-1 pot odds a good price to see a flop or no?

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It really depends. With deep stacks, you want to think about implied odds, not pot odds.

Let's say you raise with AJ, and get re-raised by a tight player. You have to fold. If an Ace flops, you may lose a bundle to AK or win nothing from KK. There is a good chance you will lose a lot, and little chance of winning a lot.

If you raise with 88 and get re-raised by the same player, this is a call. If you flop a set, you might break him. If you don't, you won't lose much.

Hands like 87s are trickier. More deceptive, but harder to play because you are unlikely to flop a made hand. It depends on the size of the re-raise.

[Shanemex]

I think he was referring to all-in situations, at least that's what the hand from the WPT was. Mike Matusow raised the BB with something like 96o, and then folded to a push getting over 2.5-1 odds.

[EasilyFound]

Thanks. So the 2-to-1 pot odds theorum, if you want to call it that, is for all-in situations.

PS: That is how I took the reply. He quoted only the part of my question that dealt with a hand that did not involve an all-in.

[swarm]

Maybe you are referring to the Aruba tournament that was on the Travel Show last night. It was 3 handed and Mike Matasow from the SB raised it up with 9-6 off. The short stack Bearns? (not sure) then came over the top all in with K7s.

For Matasow to call the all in he would be getting 2-1 on his call. Plus he wouldn't have to dig any deeper. There are much worse hands to call on than 9-6 off. He made a terrible play in my opinion and folded. It wouldn't have hurt him if he called and lost.

As fate would have it this could have been a fatal error for mike as several rotations later he gets Bearns all in with the better hand on the flop but Bearns sucks out on him and hits two bottom two pair on the river crippling Matasow to tears.

If he had just taking the gamble he had odds on to do he may have knocked him out before this.

[Nottom]

Its not "always" correct to call getting 2-1. But it is often correct. In the spot Matusow was in, where you have a big stack against a pretty small stack its usually probably correct to call.

On the other hand if you make a big raise and another stack come over the top for a good % of your stack, then you are going to ned to find some sort of hand to call the raise. Basically if you try to re-steal with KQ and a tight player comes over the top when you are both pretty deep, you are going to throw this away a lot since that raise looks a lot like a hand that is going to have you in very bad shape and 2-1 for all (or most of) your chips isn't looking so good.

If the person is not all-in when you ar getting 2-1. You should usually toss weak hands. For example, if you have T7 and a shortstack goeas all-in you might call, but if he has enough to make a potsized flop bet you don't really want to get involved becasue hes going to bet the flop a lot of the time if he hits or not, and you are going to be sitting there with a crappy hand needing to make a decision. If you are all-in you know you are seeing all 5-cards and won't have to make any tough post-flop choices.

[EasilyFound]

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On the other hand if you make a big raise and another stack come over the top for a good % of your stack, then you are going to ned to find some sort of hand to call the raise. Basically if you try to re-steal with KQ and a tight player comes over the top when you are both pretty deep, you are going to throw this away a lot since that raise looks a lot like a hand that is going to have you in very bad shape and 2-1 for all (or most of) your chips isn't looking so good.


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Good point. When I wrote the question, I was thinking of a situation when you are big stack and playing a small stack, and where losing would not cripple you. That was not clear from my question. I was also thinking of a situation where you find yourself very shortstacked, on the verge of getting blinded out perhaps, and need to take a stand sooner or later, and someone pushes giving you approximately a 2-1 price to call. I think in that spot, you make the call as well.