2/4 NL HE: Never betting/raising a big hand

[Daniel Zarchan]

2/4 NL HE home game. Cutoff opens for $15, button calls, SB calls, I call in the BB with 8h6h . 4 players, $60 in the pot.

Flop: Qd 6d 6c . The SB bets the pot. The SB has like another $900, I have him covered, the cutoff and button have substantially less, say like $400 and $200 respectively. My feeling is that the SB could have a diamond draw, a big queen, trip sixes (would be like A6s), or queens full, in order from most to least likely (but I cant really distinguish among them well at all). If I raise him, I am only sure that he will fold queens up. If he re-raises all-in, I will be in a tough spot, since it might be difficult to distinguish between a diamond draw and a better made hand. I dont really want to give him this option, so I decide to call. The other two players fold. Heads-up, $180 in the pot.

Turn: 8s . SB bets $200, and he now has like $700 left. If he has a diamond draw, he will now have to fold to a raise. That would be bad for me, since he would be drawing dead to near dead with any diamond draw, and I may win a lot of money on the river if a diamond falls and he gets to see it. If he has queens full, raising does me no good; it just takes away my chance to make a good read on the river and get away from my hand. If he has trip sixes, it is probably something like A6s, and he will now probably lose all of his chips to a raise. However, if he has like A6s, he will still lose those chips on the river if a diamond doesnt fall and the queen doesnt pair. So the only case in which raising is better is the parlay that a) he has trips, and b) a scare card doesnt hit the river. And raising is also better in the cases where he has trip sixes or queens up and will move me off the best hand on the river because I make the wrong read (i.e. put him on queens full). So lots of the decision comes down to basically whether or not I want there to be a bunch of money left on the river for someone to make a big mistake on. Since I have position and since I feel that I read my opponent a little better than he reads me, I decide that I am better off with the $700 still left on the river. I flat call. Heads-up, $580 in the pot.

River: Qc . SB checks. Quad queens now seems unlikely, but queens full is of course still a possibility. It might be worth a shot to bully him off his half of the pot in case he had sixes full. However, it is hard to represent a hand that would have just made queens full for me. This is because the Qd was already on the board, meaning that I couldnt have queens up with a flush draw on the flop or turn. It may be hard to sell him on my playing with just queens up, so I cannot be completely sure that he will fold sixes full to a bet. Also, there is some chance that he has queens full himself, and he will surely call any bet with that hand. And if he has busted diamonds, then it makes no difference what I do. I decide to check.

I think that the flop, turn, and river are all interesting and difficult decisions. I have no idea whether I played them correctly or not, so I would curious to hear anyones comments. I will post the results in a separate post, so as not to influence the jury.

- Dan

Dan, that was an interesting hand between you two last night.....I had put you on the 6 and him on a Q, so that river card must have scared the [censored] out of you.........I would breakdown the hand that took my whole stack for analysis, except that I count no less than 5 mistakes that I made. 3 of them huge, two of them big. Oh well, whatever doesn't kill us only makes us poorer. See you in two weeks.

I think you played it well, it sounds like you gave yourself a good chance to win a lot when you're good and save as much when you're not. And Marc, you should post your hand, at least as an example of what not to do in no-limit.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I like your flop play. While I wasn't there and don't know these opponents, it is the best play very often.

On the turn I would raise him, but not so much that he can't call with a flush draw. Once you call his $200 bet, there is almost $600 in the pot. If you raise $250 more, he'll be getting 3.4:1 pot odds, plus implied odds of greater than 5:1. This is a price many players will take with the flush draw, even though they shouldn't. You might raise the minimum of $200 instead.

A lot of this depends upon what you think he will think you are holding for each possible hand. How would he expect you to play a flush draw yourself, a flush draw with overcards, a weak 6, a strong 6, queens up, queens full, etc.? You want to make the play that is consistent with a hand he's beating or which he figures he has odds to draw out on.

This is a perfect situation to explain why raising the pot every time you raise is less than perfect, as you will cause him to play correctly if you do so. However, as I said in those other threads, always betting/raising the pot is good IF you're not very good at determining when to bet less.

And, even though this is NL, it is not often correct to bet more than the pot.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Daniel Zarchan]

Greg,

Your point is well taken, but your turn idea would not have been relevant against this particular opponent. Against others, a small raise might have been a great play, but this particular player would have folded the same hands for a $200 raise that he would fold for a full $700 raise in my estimation. I know the player pretty well, and I'm sure that he would not call a minimum raise on the turn with a flush draw, and he would push all his chips with any hand he were going to continue with, which are the same hands that he would call a $700 raise with. Thus, raising $200 and $700 against this particular opponent are essentially the same, except that one would give me a chance to fold, which I would not have used. Sorry that I didn't give more player information in the original post; I thought it was long enough as was. But I'm pretty confident that a baby raise would not have accomplished anything in this particular scenario.

Thanks for your response,
Dan

P.S. I of course agree with the more general point that varying one's bet size is a crucial weapon in big bet poker, and it is one that I use all the time.

[Matt Flynn]

Dan,

Preflop sure, although it's fine to fold if your opponents play at all well against you. (E.g., picture an A86 board with lots of action on the flop. You'll get dangerous hands like that more often then the straight or full house, so you gotta play Zee's good poker postflop or have weak opponents behind you to really make it profitable.)

I take it that on the flop you were not committed to the hand. Myself, most small blind players I know would only have me beat with the case A6s, but many would come over the top with big flush draws and often 76 and 65 if they're raised right. He doesn't have 96s or K6s if he can play a lick. If he's spunky with his flush draws, I want to be all in, but I also need to know there's no bigger hand behind. With two players left to act and no tell to the folds, I would raise large enough that it looks like I'm bullying but small enough to walk away. Maybe make it $220 to go. If both players behind fold, I would call all-in against most players in the small blind here. If a player behind me goes all in or calls, it's time to cross my fingers and play good poker.

When you call on the flop here, you are setting yourself up for having to make a tough decision. I'm not saying the call is wrong, just that with two players behind you you are usually better off playing it straightforward and taking the $120 offered to you by raising. 15% of your stack ain't a bad pot.

On the turn, it sounds like you were not committed to the hand and are planning to call him down. Ok. Usually you need larger stacks for this as you don't want to call 25% of your chips with a plan to fold unless you're getting odds on a draw that will get paid off. Had I gotten to the turn without raising, I would raise all in against the small blind.

On the river, when he checks to you he is inviting you to take the pot. Is he smart enough to pull the mega-play and check a queen at just the right time? I'd stew on that a bit before acting. If not, I'd be all-in in case he has a six. If he's got the six, he's now got to make a great call to keep his money.

Matt

[Matt Flynn]

Ray,

How much do you agree with my post above? If you'd prefer a private line, my e-mail is mflynn3@yahoo.com. Hope the fishing and flying are still good.

Matt

[Ray Zee]

you all are right here. its a tough spot to pick the right course of action. every play has good things and bad that can happen. but first i would fold before the flop. 4 bucks in there doesnt warrant playing for 11 more with this hand out of position against those with guaranteed good cards.
on the flop its more of a people thing here. i never like just calling and letting cards flop off that can cripple me. but you may not want to go broke here to a bigger six or two queens so calling is fine and dandy.
on the turn i am in the raising category. first i dont like to get my final action destroyed by a flush card or straight card that may have come in for a flush draw. or another queen. and certainly dont want to lose by him hitting an out that he would not have gotten to see because he was done with the hand after getting called.
i like gregs raise of a small one to suck him in here. if he really would fold all the time without a monster then you should be bluffing him more. but going all in is just fine. if you lose him so be it. i doubt you really get to win much more from a queen so a call is a free card for that hand which is a real likely possibility. also another six may fold after the last card as he hasnt anymore ways to improve.
i dont know anyone in the world that could now get away from this hand by reading someone for queens full on the river if the queen didnt come. he would make a big bet with that or any big six.
so by just calling you are trying to hope he has a flush draw only and he makes it. if thats what you read him for then raise a small amount or do give him the free card.
on the end if he doesnt tend to check the nuts often i would bet enough to get him to fold.

[Ray Zee]

Matt,

yep, what you say seems to be inorder for the hand. everyone here is correct for the situation they envision. so be it. good thinking on all parts.
fishing has been great as the weather is perfect everyday this fall with an indian summer like no other. today for lunch three of us in our planes flew to bonners ferry idaho for lunch. it was a dazzzling day flying over the cabinet mountain wilderness. hope to see you again someday.

[Phat Mack]

I don't know the dynamics of this particular game, but in many of the NLHE games that I've played in there hasn't been a lot of action on 5th street. The betting is pretty much over by then, and if it isn't, it's suspicious. Somebody has made a fluke draw or is making a desperate bluff. I think you should raise on 4th street for this reason. Your hand is as good as it's going to get, it's time to make a bet to milk, get more information, or take it down, depending on your final analysis. Is it possible you called on fourth street to avoid making a final decision? Was your concern about QQ valid?