foldable here?

[CheckFold]

Early in a pp $33, I get AA on the button. I have 1650, another guy has 1750, everyone else has 700-800. 8 remaining. Still 10-15 blinds. UTG+1 (big stack) raises to 60, cold called in one spot and I make it 150. Only big stack calls.

Flop is A /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif. Now I've been running poorly (or playing poorly) for the past week, and immediately I'm thinking, "This hand's a loser, how do I get out of it cheap? He's probably there already, if not whatever he needs will drop." The conscience on the other shoulder is telling me "You have a monster, one hand beats you, in no way should you be remotely scared in this hand."

So it's checked to me and I bet 250, he checkraises all in and I call in a millisecond even though I can only imagine him holding one hand. What bothers me is that I think I made this call only because I was trying so hard to convince myself not to play it scared. Who folds?

[BDarch]

I don't think you could possibly fold here, there is only one hand that is beating you on the flop and I'd say a lower set is much more likely than KQ with the action preflop

[Raiser]

Don't fold.

It sounds like you need to take a break if you are assuming you are beat with top set before any action on the flop.

[Nottom]

You have top set and are getting about 1.7-1 on the call (if my math is right).

If you have red Aces agaisnt a straight, then you are about 1.86-1 against winning the hand. If you have the A /images/graemlins/club.gif then you are only about 1.54-1 against. Both of those are pretty close to the odds you are getting.

When you also count in the possibility of him having a smaller set, or AJ, or A /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif against all of which you are a substantial favorite, this becomes a clear call.

[CheckFold]

Should I still be taking into account that there's likely a 65% chance that I'm going out right there? Is my 35% of holding almost half the chips after one orbit enough to overcome that, especially considering I'll still be in very good shape after folding?

[jah0550]

Even if you knew for a fact that the villian had KQ, could you still fold? It's not like you are drawing dead. You probably have about a 6-1 chance of hitting your boat on the turn. Call this every time and three times on sunday.

[RobGW]

How are you going to lose this 65%? You are very likely already ahead. Villian is the one who is likely leaving. Even if he does have KQ then you have a 35% chance of filling up.

[CheckFold]

you are right. The chances of AJ, AT, JJ, TT or AcXc are high enough to make it an easy call. What screwed me up is that I put him on KQ from the second I saw the flop (for no reason other than assuming I'm always going to lose), so when I was shown KQ and didn't fill up and was gone in the first orbit, I thought maybe I was trying a little too hard not to play scared. I still think given this sequence, I'll be shown KQ ~90% of the time.

[BDarch]

[ QUOTE ]
I still think given this sequence, I'll be shown KQ ~90% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

not even close

[RobGW]

90% is waaay too high. Yes, someitmes you will be shown KQ. But even then you still win this 35% of the time. Often you will be shown a lower set or two pair which you have crushed. Not to mention the occasional idiot who bluffs off his entire stack. If you assume your opponents always have you beat you are going to be folding a lot of winners. So you got beat this time. It happens to me all the time. But when I win hands like these it makes it much easier to win the tournament.

[CheckFold]

I meant more of this specific case where it's early on, two stacks are much larger than everyone else. In these instances it's a lot less likely that players will just through their stack around with less than a monster. JJ and TT are the only other hands I could really see someone making this play with, and there 6 ways he could have the set vs. 16 for KQ. So maybe ~75% is more accurate.

[Nottom]

If you KNOW he has KQ you should fold if you don't have the A /images/graemlins/club.gif. But you don't know, so folding is bad.

In fact the push would indicate that he doesn't have KQ more so than it indicates he does.

[curtains]

If he has KQ over 50% of the time I'll be very surprised.

[willie]

seriously. it could just as easily be set over set

kq i think is around 50%, even given the betting pattern- maybe i'm overtight but in a pot raised that huge, there is no way i'm holding kq if i'm villain......


there are a lot of hands that you beat here, and if you aren't beating them you have a pretty decent chance to pass them.



i had an awful march, and you just gotta stick it out and keep jammin the pot when you have it and hope it holds up man. april has been turnin around for me so far, but march was the absolute $hits..... 5% roi was terrible- but in that stretch i saw everything go wrong that could. losing overpair to underpair-countless times, losing with my dominating hands ak vs a8 and the like, losing freerolls- it wears you down- but the moment you start playing weaktight like this breakdown implies- you have to take some time off and get your head straight and get back to playin balls to the wall poker.