WPT Championship Odds

[LeeW]

I ran across these at an online sportsbook...
Poker
World Poker Tour at the Bellagio: Matchups ($25,000 Buy-in Championship Event)
Mon 4/18 Will the winner be #101 - #237 ?

09:00 AM 501 Yes -109
502 No -101
World Poker Tour at the Bellagio: Odds to win ($25,000 Buy-in Championship Event)
Mon 4/18 Odds to Win : (All In)

09:00 AM 101 Phil Ivey +7000
102 John Juanda +7500
103 Howard Lederer +7500
104 Daniel Negreanu +6000
105 Ram Vaswani +12000
106 Marcel Luske +9000
107 Gus Hansen +9000
108 Dave Ulliot +10000
109 T.J. Cloutier +10000
110 Barry Greenstein +10000
111 Phil Hellmuth +8000
112 Johnny Chan +10000
113 Hasan Habib +12000
114 Tony Bloom +13000
115 Barny Boatman +13000
116 Freddy Deeb +13000
117 Martin de Knipff +11000
118 Dave Colclough +13000
119 Doyle Brunson +10000
120 Todd Brunson +12000
121 Chris Ferguson +11000
122 Scott Fischman +12000
123 Greg Grigorian +13000
124 Andy Bloch +13000
125 Peter Costa +13000
126 Antonio Esfandiari +12000
127 John Esposito +13000
128 Harley Hall +13000
129 Dan Harrington +11000
130 Ted Forrest +10000
131 John Kabbaj +14000
132 Toto Leonidas +14000
133 Eric Lindgren +9000
134 Michael Mizrachi +10000
135 Robert Mizrachi +15000
136 Erik Seidel +10000
137 Carlos Mortenson +13000
138 Chip Reese +11000
139 David Pham +13000
140 Chau Giang +13000
141 James van Alstyne +15000
142 Layne Flack +12000
143 Mickey Appleman +13000
144 Eli Elezra +15000
145 John Hennigan +12500
146 Thomas Keller +12500
147 Minh Ly +15000
148 Amir Vahedi +15000
149 Surindar Sunar +15000
150 Scotty Nguyen +12000
151 John DeFrancis +16000
152 Aaron Katz +15000
153 Chris Bigler +16000
154 Jeff Shulman +16000
155 Joe Beevers +16000
156 Ross Boatman +16000
157 Lyle Berman +16000
158 Alex Brenes +16000
159 Eric Brenes +16000
160 Humberto Brenes +16000
161 Paul Darden +15000
162 Harry Demetriou +16000
163 Prahlad Friedman +12000
164 Billy Gazes +16000
165 Alan Goehring +15000
166 Cuong Huynh +16000
167 Randy Jensen +16000
168 Paul Phillips +15000
169 Ben Roberts +16000
170 Alexander Stevic +16000
171 Johan Storakers +16000
172 Joe Awada +16000
173 Billy Baxter +16000
174 Chip Jett +14000
175 Phil Laak +16000
176 Davood Mermand +16000
177 Paul Wolfe +16000
178 Jennifer Harman +15000
179 Chris Hinchcliffe +16500
180 Padraig Parkinson +16000
181 David Kim +16500
182 Tuan Lee +17000
183 Kathy Liebert +15000
184 John Myung +17000
185 Men Nguyen +16000
186 John Phan +14000
187 Huck Seed +16000
188 Barry Shulman +16000
189 Steve Zolotow +16000
190 Gioi Luong +17000
191 Isabelle Mercier +16000
192 Ron Rose +16500
193 Dewey Tomko +16000
194 David Williams +16000
195 Anthony Cousineau +16000
196 Andy Miller +16500
197 Van Nguyen +17000
198 Tobias Person +17000
199 Max Pescatori +16500
200 Bo Sehlstedt +17000
201 Blair Rodman +16000
202 Mimi Rogers +20000
203 David Sklansky +18000
204 John Stolzman +17500
205 William Thorson +17000
206 Lee Watkinson +17500
207 Lee Weiner +18000
208 David Weisberger +18000
209 David Wells +18000
210 Robert Williamson III +16000
211 Martin Wilson +18000
212 Eric Winstead +18000
213 Jerry Young +18000
214 Dan Alspach +20000
215 Patrik Antonius +19000
216 Sammy Arzoin +20000
217 Steven Brecher +19000
218 Richard Brodie +20000
219 Paul Darpino +20000
220 Mark Dickstein +19000
221 Terry Fleischer +20000
222 Eric Ford +20000
223 Andy Goetsch +20000
224 Nicholas Gonzalez +20000
225 Charles Hartman +20000
226 James Hoeppner +20000
227 Eric Lawson +20000
228 Kaelaine Minton +20000
229 Paul Nepa +20000
230 Greg Raymer +16000
231 Alan Schein +18000
232 Alan Smurfit +18000
233 Eugene Todd +19000
234 Tommy Vu +20000
235 Mikael Westerlund +18500
236 Annie Duke +16000
237 Ben Affleck +25000

[sammysusar]

+7000 = 70 - 1??

if so these are the first semi reasonable poker bets i have seen

[LeeW]

I like the bet. Will one of these players win, at -109. That means you have to 109 to win 100. This seems like a great bet in tis tournament.

[betgo]

I know he has won a major tournament, but I wouldn't bet on Ben Affleck at 250-1.

[LeeW]

If Ben was realy able to play without distractions, for a whole week(I would want to know his schedule before I bet) I think that might be one of the best bets.

[srblan]

The one that surprised me a little is Prahlad at 120:1, right up there with a few of the former WPT winners. Though a lot of us recognize his skill, it surprises me a bit that the odds reflect it.

[drewjustdrew]

Are you 206, or 207?

[drewjustdrew]

If you bet on each of these 137 individually, the average payout is 151.4599. Just a little better than -109!!!!

[srblan]

He's 206

[Howard Treesong]

[ QUOTE ]

111 Phil Hellmuth +8000

168 Paul Phillips +15000


[/ QUOTE ]

I continue to find the Hellmuth worship amusing. As Paul has repeatedly pointed out, Hellmuth put out a big bet that AK was a headsup favorite to AKs. Who makes these lines?

[srblan]

lol, I think the Hellmuth line was based on his renewed confidence after winning the heads up tourney at the Nugget... I agree that it seems really high though.

[wray]

[ QUOTE ]
I ran across these at an online sportsbook...
Poker
World Poker Tour at the Bellagio: Matchups ($25,000 Buy-in Championship Event)
Mon 4/18 Will the winner be #101 - #237 ?

09:00 AM 501 Yes -109
502 No -101
World Poker Tour at the Bellagio: Odds to win ($25,000 Buy-in Championship Event)
Mon 4/18 Odds to Win : (All In)

09:00 AM 101 Phil Ivey +7000
102 John Juanda +7500
103 Howard Lederer +7500
104 Daniel Negreanu +6000
105 Ram Vaswani +12000
106 Marcel Luske +9000
107 Gus Hansen +9000
108 Dave Ulliot +10000
109 T.J. Cloutier +10000
110 Barry Greenstein +10000
111 Phil Hellmuth +8000
112 Johnny Chan +10000
113 Hasan Habib +12000
114 Tony Bloom +13000
115 Barny Boatman +13000
116 Freddy Deeb +13000
117 Martin de Knipff +11000
118 Dave Colclough +13000
119 Doyle Brunson +10000
120 Todd Brunson +12000
121 Chris Ferguson +11000
122 Scott Fischman +12000
123 Greg Grigorian +13000
124 Andy Bloch +13000
125 Peter Costa +13000
126 Antonio Esfandiari +12000
127 John Esposito +13000
128 Harley Hall +13000
129 Dan Harrington +11000
130 Ted Forrest +10000
131 John Kabbaj +14000
132 Toto Leonidas +14000
133 Eric Lindgren +9000
134 Michael Mizrachi +10000
135 Robert Mizrachi +15000
136 Erik Seidel +10000
137 Carlos Mortenson +13000
138 Chip Reese +11000
139 David Pham +13000
140 Chau Giang +13000
141 James van Alstyne +15000
142 Layne Flack +12000
143 Mickey Appleman +13000
144 Eli Elezra +15000
145 John Hennigan +12500
146 Thomas Keller +12500
147 Minh Ly +15000
148 Amir Vahedi +15000
149 Surindar Sunar +15000
150 Scotty Nguyen +12000
151 John DeFrancis +16000
152 Aaron Katz +15000
153 Chris Bigler +16000
154 Jeff Shulman +16000
155 Joe Beevers +16000
156 Ross Boatman +16000
157 Lyle Berman +16000
158 Alex Brenes +16000
159 Eric Brenes +16000
160 Humberto Brenes +16000
161 Paul Darden +15000
162 Harry Demetriou +16000
163 Prahlad Friedman +12000
164 Billy Gazes +16000
165 Alan Goehring +15000
166 Cuong Huynh +16000
167 Randy Jensen +16000
168 Paul Phillips +15000
169 Ben Roberts +16000
170 Alexander Stevic +16000
171 Johan Storakers +16000
172 Joe Awada +16000
173 Billy Baxter +16000
174 Chip Jett +14000
175 Phil Laak +16000
176 Davood Mermand +16000
177 Paul Wolfe +16000
178 Jennifer Harman +15000
179 Chris Hinchcliffe +16500
180 Padraig Parkinson +16000
181 David Kim +16500
182 Tuan Lee +17000
183 Kathy Liebert +15000
184 John Myung +17000
185 Men Nguyen +16000
186 John Phan +14000
187 Huck Seed +16000
188 Barry Shulman +16000
189 Steve Zolotow +16000
190 Gioi Luong +17000
191 Isabelle Mercier +16000
192 Ron Rose +16500
193 Dewey Tomko +16000
194 David Williams +16000
195 Anthony Cousineau +16000
196 Andy Miller +16500
197 Van Nguyen +17000
198 Tobias Person +17000
199 Max Pescatori +16500
200 Bo Sehlstedt +17000
201 Blair Rodman +16000
202 Mimi Rogers +20000
203 David Sklansky +18000
204 John Stolzman +17500
205 William Thorson +17000
206 Lee Watkinson +17500
207 Lee Weiner +18000
208 David Weisberger +18000
209 David Wells +18000
210 Robert Williamson III +16000
211 Martin Wilson +18000
212 Eric Winstead +18000
213 Jerry Young +18000
214 Dan Alspach +20000
215 Patrik Antonius +19000
216 Sammy Arzoin +20000
217 Steven Brecher +19000
218 Richard Brodie +20000
219 Paul Darpino +20000
220 Mark Dickstein +19000
221 Terry Fleischer +20000
222 Eric Ford +20000
223 Andy Goetsch +20000
224 Nicholas Gonzalez +20000
225 Charles Hartman +20000
226 James Hoeppner +20000
227 Eric Lawson +20000
228 Kaelaine Minton +20000
229 Paul Nepa +20000
230 Greg Raymer +16000
231 Alan Schein +18000
232 Alan Smurfit +18000
233 Eugene Todd +19000
234 Tommy Vu +20000
235 Mikael Westerlund +18500
236 Annie Duke +16000
237 Ben Affleck +25000

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm either half asleep or a knnucklehead. Please exaplin this to me. Let's say I bet on Ivey and want to bet 1000. How much do I get if he wins? Does he have to win or do you get less if he just places in the money?

[srblan]

You'd win 70,000. According to the line at the top about "will the winner be," I think he'd have to win for you to get paid.
Incidentally, if they had a line on which hand Phil Ivey would bust with if he didn't win, I'd bet the farm on AQ /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[wray]

[ QUOTE ]
You'd win 70,000. According to the line at the top about "will the winner be," I think he'd have to win for you to get paid.
Incidentally, if they had a line on which hand Phil Ivey would bust with if he didn't win, I'd bet the farm on AQ /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

ty

[CieloAzor]

I don't think any of them are good bets at those odds, but Affleck's line is probably the best offered.

[JPotMaster]

202 Mimi Rogers +20000
203 David Sklansky +18000

Mimi Rogers is pretty close to even with Sklansky????
Maybe she should write a book

[partygirluk]

[ QUOTE ]
+7000 = 70 - 1??

if so these are the first semi reasonable poker bets i have seen

[/ QUOTE ]

That would mean he is 100* more likely to win than average.......... you really think someone can have that big an edge?

[drewjustdrew]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
+7000 = 70 - 1??

if so these are the first semi reasonable poker bets i have seen

[/ QUOTE ]


That would mean he is 100* more likely to win than average.......... you really think someone can have that big an edge?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is for the WPT championship, not the WSOP ME. There will not by 7000 entrants for the WPT

[partygirluk]

Ah OK tx. What is the WPT championship?

[partygirluk]

you can get better odds on betfair.com

[drewjustdrew]

That is the big $25000 buy-in event at the end of the World Poker Tour. It is played at the Bellagio. Every winner from other WPT events also wins a buy-in to this event.

[MicroBob]

It would be helpful if we had a rough estimate on how many players they are expecting for this event.


I too noticed how close the Sklansky line was to the odds on Mimi Rogers.


I might be inclined to take Sklansky....but he would probably say that at those odds that a bet on him is -EV (depending on the number of entrants of course).


Raymer and Phillips might be okay bets too.

Those are the only 3 that I can immediately find that I like.

Golly....I'm such a 2+2 ass-kisser aren't I??


The line on Chip Jett isn't quite high enough for me either....but I kind of will keep an eye on him after sitting at his table for a couple of hours and coming away REALLY impressed with his hyper-aggressive style.

Line on Harrington isn't high enough for me to bet on it either.

Obviously I like the chances of a Hansen, Lederer or Juanda...but not at those lines. WAY too low probably (again...don't know how many entrants they are expecting).
Same for Greenstein and Ferguson.

I would want more like +15000 on these guys (not +10000 or +11000).

Pretty amused that all 3 of the Brenes brothers are getting the same line.


Thanks for posting the lines....pretty interesting to see how the wagering sites are ranking these guys.

[Army Eye]

Bodog.com has the worst odds I've ever seen for any kind of ... I don't know, they're just the worst odds ever.

Michael Mizrachi is paying 5-1. Yes, this tournament, which had 344 entries last year and will surely have more this year, is expected to be won by The Grinder 1 out of every 6 times. He's the next coming of Ungar!!

And Lindgren is 6-1. Yet another Ungar on our hands..

[srblan]

Yeah, out of curiosity I went and looked at those and I almost fell out of my chair... Nobody on their list of 50 people is worse than 60 to 1 except for one guy that I assume is on the list as a joke.

[sammysusar]

Probably none of them below 150 can be good bets especially if the field is any larger than 450. but compared to the 25 - 1 or 30 -1 some other places offered in this past this is definitely a bit better.

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
202 Mimi Rogers +20000
203 David Sklansky +18000

Mimi Rogers is pretty close to even with Sklansky????


[/ QUOTE ]

Mimi Rogers has a bigger (chip) rack than Sklansky.

[MicroBob]

This isn't the first time Bodog has had ridiculous bad odds.

I'm guessing they are getting a lot of action though...so they are simply offering what they can get away with.