OE straight draw ...

[Scuba Chuck]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t430)
UTG (t1925)
MP (t1190)
Button (t2220)
Hero (t2235)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls t100, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t300) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets t330 (All-In)</font>, Button folds, Hero ....

[strelok]

i don't think I would. He probably caught a queen or it is a desperation bet with an Ax. You're the chip leader, I would try and maintain my lead and look for a better hand to take him out on as he is sure to do it again, real soon.

[The Yugoslavian]

Bah....I don't think so. Even if you think he's pushing any hand he limped with....it's not clear that you gain much by calling here. Then if you consider that many opponents will only push here after hitting a piece of the flop....you're not gaining anything....

It is quite tempting though....

Yugoslav

[BradleyT]

I think hero has 11 good outs here (8 straight, 3 for 9/T) which is plenty to call.

When he wins (40%)
He'll be chipleader by nearly 50% over the next stack.
He can use his chiplead to punish.
One player closer to victory.
Possible image play (even though he has pot odds here)

When he loses (60%)
Not much damage to stack
Psychological effects of being 3rd stack (but only marginal)
Villian still has less than 10X BB whether he folds or calls and loses

I think wins &gt; losses.

[lastchance]

I call. I'm not losing too many chips if I'm behind, and if BB doesn't have a pair, I'm happy. If BB is passive, I think it becomes a fold. But, given no reads, I believe you have enough outs to call.

[Scuba Chuck]

I'm thinking you could do an $EV equation for this, and find this to be +$EV to call this everytime. And in particular, when hero has such a large chip lead. Any thoughts?

Consider the following probabilities.
1. Complete bluff
2. Ax bluff
3. Villain has paired the Queen (worst case scenario)
4. Villain has paired a lower flop card, so hero has 6 more outs with the two overcards
5. Villain has 57
6. villain has lower pocket pair

And on and on. I'm pretty sure you could come out for this to be +$EV considering that it's 2:1 pot odds. Again, anymore thoughts?

Scuba

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

He'll be chipleader by nearly 50% over the next stack.


[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true then I'm much worse at math than I thought..../images/graemlins/crazy.gif.

Yugoslav
Who thinks Scuba can get the keys to the bus by other means...

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Yugoslav
Who thinks Scuba can get the keys to the bus by other means...

[/ QUOTE ]

Since I multi-table, I'm playing this game more via math. If my assumptions are correct, and this is a +$EV play to call, isn't that the correct move?

Scuba
who is no bus driver.

[The Yugoslavian]

I didn't....but I did some quick and dirty ish....and figure you're 40/60 at best vs. a range given to villian....

And that doesn't take into account that he's more likely to be playing hands that have hit here....rather than any two hands he limped with

Yugoslav

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't....but I did some quick and dirty ish....and figure you're 40/60 at best vs. a range given to villian....

And that doesn't take into account that he's more likely to be playing hands that have hit here....rather than any two hands he limped with

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

Given your new analysis, and considering the pot odds, are you changing your answer?

Scuba

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I didn't....but I did some quick and dirty ish....and figure you're 40/60 at best vs. a range given to villian....

And that doesn't take into account that he's more likely to be playing hands that have hit here....rather than any two hands he limped with

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

Given your new analysis, and considering the pot odds, are you changing your answer?

Scuba

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, this wasn't new math.....no I'm not. I think your average chip gain is at best ~50-70 here. I don't think that necessarily makes it +$EV....

This isn't 4 handed, but I don't mind having a smally at the table, keeps opponents on their toes.

Yugoslav
PM me if u want to discuss in more detail....altho previously this hasn't worked out as you don't pm me back....bleh.

[Irieguy]

Calling on a draw when you can't possibly win any further chips when you make your draw is almost never correct in holdem. It happens in omaha tournaments frequently, but not in holdem.

I'm sure somebody can invent an exception, but this isn't it.

Irieguy

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, this wasn't new math.....no I'm not. I think your average chip gain is maybe ~50-70 here. I don't think that necessarily makes it +$EV....

This isn't 4 handed, but I don't mind having a smally at the table, keeps opponents on their toes.

Yugoslav
PM me if u want to discuss in more detail....altho previously this hasn't worked out as you don't pm me back....bleh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do I detect a little tone in your voice? /images/graemlins/frown.gif

The reason PMing don't work so well for me, as I'm soon to head to bed, and I'm onto new subjects in the AM.

But to this hand, I don't think 'minding' a shorty in the game has more significance over the fact that he's on my left. I really hate it when the shortstack is on my left, as he is VERY LIKELY to call one of my steal attempts. One of the reasons I am not interested in him calling a steal attempt (besides losing of course) is that it reveals my steal cards.

I think you are giving me more ammo for making a call here better. I'd rather he had more chips and fold to my steal attempts, than to continue to have a short stack on my left.

[ QUOTE ]
I think your average chip gain is maybe ~50-70 here. I don't think that necessarily makes it +$EV....

[/ QUOTE ]

What you're saying here is that this is a +CEV play, but not a +$EV play. OK, I can go along with that for now...



But, let's do a simple $EV calc based on your probabilities above.

Fold = 25.34% of the equity prize pool
Call, win = 30.69% of the equity prize pool
Call, lose = 22.3%

Calling = (.4)(.3069) + (.6)(.223) = .25656
Calling = 25.67%

Hmmm, a lot closer than I thought. But still +$EV.

Scuba

[BradleyT]

I highly disagree when the pot odds are there, you have a chance to knock someone out, it gives you a big chiplead, etc.

But since you're one of the 1TT "clique" members there's no point in discussing it, you must be correct.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling on a draw when you can't possibly win any further chips when you make your draw is almost never correct in holdem. It happens in omaha tournaments frequently, but not in holdem.

I'm sure somebody can invent an exception, but this isn't it.


[/ QUOTE ]

I completely understand your point. Here's my invention, I guess. What if there's a very high probability your opponent is on a bluff?

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling on a draw when you can't possibly win any further chips when you make your draw is almost never correct in holdem.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't this statement need some sort of qualification involving pot odds?

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I highly disagree when the pot odds are there, you have a chance to knock someone out, it gives you a big chiplead, etc.

But since you're one of the 1TT "clique" members there's no point in discussing it, you must be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Always nice when my opinion inspires disdain for no reason whatsoever.

Irieguy
Who may be growing weary

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Always nice when my opinion inspires disdain for no reason whatsoever.

Irieguy
Who may be growing weary

[/ QUOTE ]

I was kind of hoping we'd just not address his comments, as I respect your comments and Bradleys (at least with regards to poker).

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Calling on a draw when you can't possibly win any further chips when you make your draw is almost never correct in holdem. It happens in omaha tournaments frequently, but not in holdem.

I'm sure somebody can invent an exception, but this isn't it.


[/ QUOTE ]

I completely understand your point. Here's my invention, I guess. What if there's a very high probability your opponent is on a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I would like to have a hand that could beat a bluff.

Irieguy

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Then I would like to have a hand that could beat a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough...

[The Yugoslavian]

Meh....that's quite marginal at best. It's certainly not a cleary +$EV situation.

I would still fold.

I do not mind the small stack being behind me....he will still fold all his crappy hands.

I do mind if he gets enough chips to weild FE over me...

I also think prolonging the 5 handedness as it currently stands is a good thing unless you get a better +$EV situation.

Yugoslav

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I also think prolonging the 5 handedness as it currently stands is a good thing unless you get a better +$EV situation.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm willing to concede on the math part. And given the size of shorty's stack, after he 'wins' this hand by my fold, he'll be at 6xBB, I guess I don't mind him here, either.


Scuba
Who definately doesn't like shorty here if he is at 3xBB.

[RobGW]

Initialy I was going to say fold this. But then i started to think about it a little more. You are gettin over 2:1 odds meaning you only need to win 1 out of 3 times. You have 8 clean outs to the str8 and maybe some outs to your T or 9. Since BB is desperate lets say you have 3 outs. Now you have 11 outs with 2 cards to come. Yeah, you have to call this. Of course this all depends on whether your outs to the T or 9 are good. I think they may be enough to make this a call.

[microbet]

I think it's very close. You are getting almost 2 to 1. If he has a queen you aren't quite a 2 to 1 dog. If he has, say an 8 or pocket 7s, you are not very far behind at all. I know the $EV will be worse.

I see the point that you have no implied odds when you hit, and I'm sure I routinely fold here, but if villian had only 250 left instead of 330, I think it would be a call.

[adanthar]

The real problem with this hand is completing it in the first place.

I call, but I call anything close whenever I can get a big stack out of it.

(Reference point for what a big stack is worth to me and/or brag post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2093732&amp;page=0&amp;view=colla psed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1))

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
But since you're one of the 1TT "clique" members there's no point in discussing it, you must be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sheesh. That's all I should say here, but I will add that there is only one person in this thread so far that is solidly agreeing with Irie.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
but I will add that there is only one person in this thread so far that is solidly agreeing with Irie.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then he must be correct.

Irieguy

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but I will add that there is only one person in this thread so far that is solidly agreeing with Irie.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then he must be correct.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno, I hear he's a pretty big tool and coughs alot from going to hookah lounges...

He must be a losing player...he also can't even record stats...

Yugoslav
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[BradleyT]

Other things to keep in mind:

When you call and lose you'll be under 10BB in a few hands when the BB is 200. How good is your shorter stack play? Everyone else at the table will have at most about ~10XBB also, do they play small stacks aggressively or will you easily be able to steal a few blinds and get back over 10X?

Villian will only have 3 or 5 BB when blinds go up, is he tight enough to fold most hands and blind out? If so it doesn't matter much if he has 3 or 5.

If hero had ATs and the flop was 2 to his suit I'm sure almost everyone would have answered call. There's only a couple outs difference between the two hands and both have odds to call.

I think the biggest thing is that you can knock a player out and get the chiplead with hardly no damage to your stack. The times you win and get a nearly 3K stack will have a nice effect on your first place finishes also.

Lots of things to consider on this hand.

[swarm]

hmm, at first I was leaning fold but as a BB here I am pushing if I hit any piece of the flop. I'm thinking it is more likely he hit the 6 or the 8.

You got to call but it may be one you regret later on as you are giving BB enough chips to make trouble for you. The upside is if he wins he has enough chips that he will fold marginal hands to blind steals again.

It's a definite call... why are so many ready to put him on a Q?

[Raiser]

Haven't read any replies on this one.

I like a call here.

I think that on average you have the odds to call here (assuming your 9/T outs are good some decent portion of the time). Calling here won't really hurt you at all, but it could give you a very good chip position on the bubble.

Flame away /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Phil Van Sexton]

Very interesting hand. I really couldn't decide until I did a couple quick calculations and thought about it.

We have been programmed to recognize certain patterns and can then react quickly without doing any math. This is essential for multitablers.

-Someone moved allin and I have a draw, fold...next table.
-I am heads-up against an allin player and I'm an underdog to win, fold...next table.

Our brains are trained to recognize patterns, not to perform ICM calculations. When we see one of these patterns, we immediately know what play is usually correct.

When we see 2 of these patterns and they both indicate fold, we can be quite certain that folding is correct. No further thought is required. No math is required. What are the chances this is an exception to both patterns?

In fact, it is an exception. You are giving up some $EV by folding.

Of course, 8-tabling would not be possible if you stopped using pattern recognition to make decisions. It's worth it to miss small opportunities like this so you can play more tables. We have trained our brains NOT to look for exceptions. It just takes too long and the benefits are usually small.

What we need is another pattern to look for:
- Tiny stack moves allin on flop and I have a big stack and outs.

Justification of pattern: This is on the flop, so there is money in the pot, so I might be getting good odds. Since his stack is tiny, his allin might not indicate any particular strength. Since I have a big stack, losing probably isn't going to hurt me a lot.

So now 2 patterns say fold, and 1 says call. What now?

Now your brain recognizes the conflict and raises a red flag. It doesn't immediately know what to do. You can either just pick randomly (its probably close and you have 7 other tables open), or you can stop and do some math in your head.

If you have the luxury to stop and think, this is a call.

[steeser]

If there is any chance that your 9 or T is an out, then I think it's a call. Since I believe there is a 50% chance of that being true, easy call.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
Sheesh. That's all I should say here, but I will add that there is only one person in this thread so far that is solidly agreeing with Irie.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we can ignore the guy who who seems to think Irie killed his dog, I'm still curious about pot odds. At what pot odds are you calling? Surely you call getting 6:1. How about 5:1? 4:1? 3:1? I can't buy the notion that you never call an all in with a draw.

[Scuba Chuck]

Phil VS, you are obviously not 8 tabling right now /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Very interesting response, and obviously, well thought out.

[The Yugoslavian]

Interesting Phil....I think I'd be more likely to call *during* the game as my pattern recognition map would say 'he has to push at this b/c he's desperate, I have tons of outs and plenty of chips...I'll be the table leader if I call' - I call.

However, after looking at the numbers and realizing that they are so marginal. Like I said, I believe in CEV your giving up at most ~50 chips here - in terms of $EV, since you knock someone out I think ICM may be giving too much weight to these 50 chips gained (it usually does the opposite to marginal +CEV situations)...but I think it's basically inconsequential b/c of how close it is...this is where you have to consider the game situations. If you can win the blinds just once more on average by folding here instead of calling, then it will have been worth it IMO.

Yugoslav

[nokona13]

What about the fact that even though there's no implied odds, you're getting exactly correct pot odds to call the OESD with two cards to come (2.1:1). Given the possibility that you're opponent is on a bluff or has an 8 or 6 and your 6 9/T outs are good, doesn't that make this a very +CEV call? Since the 330 lost will hardly affect your chip position, but it would be really nice to get to 3000 and be the dominant chip leader, might this not be one of those good spots to call an all in with a draw?

[Paul2432]

Does anyone bet out here? This looks like a good semi-bluff opportunity to me.

Paul

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
doesn't that make this a very +CEV call?


[/ QUOTE ]

If +50 chips is very +CEV, then yes....I suppose it might very well be.

[ QUOTE ]

Since the 330 lost will hardly affect your chip position, but it would be really nice to get to 3000


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you're off a couple hundred chips here....but sure, being the big stack is nice (technically you are alread /images/graemlins/blush.gif).

Also, FWIW, you drop to third largest stack if you call and lose....to put it in a bit more perspective.

[ QUOTE ]

and be the dominant chip leader, might this not be one of those good spots to call an all in with a draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think calling is necessarily a big mistake. I think folding is better for many of the reasons I mentioned plus a couple Irie mentioned.

Frankly, the person who should be able to end this thread is Lorinda...but I'm not sure it's worth Lori's time to try and sort this all out for us.

Yugoslav

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone bet out here? This looks like a good semi-bluff opportunity to me.

Paul

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the exact same thing as soon as I saw first post. I was wondering if anyone else would think so.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
However, after looking at the numbers and realizing that they are so marginal. Like I said, I believe in CEV your giving up at most ~50 chips here - in terms of $EV, since you knock someone out I think ICM may be giving too much weight to these 50 chips gained (it usually does the opposite to marginal +CEV situations)...but I think it's basically inconsequential b/c of how close it is...this is where you have to consider the game situations. If you can win the blinds just once more on average by folding here instead of calling, then it will have been worth it IMO.


[/ QUOTE ]

We are only talking about calling 330 more chips, so I would've been shocked if this wasn't marginal.

You have to be careful when you pass on a +$EV situations because of intangible game situations. Keeping him alive might be good for some reasons (you can steal from him), but bad for others (he can steal from you).

I like calling because the whole table will see me call with Ten-high, and is less likely to try to bluff me or steal from me in the future.

These things are all conflicting and impossible to measure. Therefore, I've choosen to ignore them and go with the ICM. You can always come up with a reason to pass on marginal situations, but there are a lot of marginal situations and you don't want to pass on them often. Anyone can make easy calls, but I think the best players get the most out of all opportunities (note that I said that I probably would've folded at the time, so I have work to do here).

I also don't factor in any kind of "skill advantage" unless there's a chance I'm going to be eliminated or crippled. If I am a better player, I'll still be a better player whether I have 1800, 2100, or 3000 chips. Therefore, I just eliminate the skill advantage from the equation.

[RobGW]

Even when you are getting correct pot odds?

[RobGW]

I am not surprised to see people advocating folding a +EV call. For whatever reason, people seem to think that they are so much better than the competetion that they can routinely fold in these situations. This weak tight advice may get you a positive ROI but its not going to kill the game. If you want to learn how to kill the game, then you need to discard the bad advice given and listen to the good players. Several good players have all given reasons to call this. If you want to increase your WINNING % QUIT FOLDING SO DAMN MUCH.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not surprised to see people advocating folding a +EV call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I dunno, Scuba showed pretty convincingly that it was a very marginal +$EV call at best.

[ QUOTE ]

If you want to learn how to kill the game, then you need to discard the bad advice given and listen to the good players.


[/ QUOTE ]

The only player in this thread who I know is killing the game disagrees with you.

[ QUOTE ]

Several good players have all given reasons to call this. If you want to increase your WINNING % QUIT FOLDING SO DAMN MUCH.


[/ QUOTE ]

Meh.

Actually, on a completely different note, I think Adanthar brought up a reasonable (and good IMO) Point earlier in this thread....why is hero completing here??

Furthermore, if Hero is calling shorty here every time, why not just bet out? I much prefer that (yes, even with the button still to act) to check/calling.

Yugoslav

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone bet out here? This looks like a good semi-bluff opportunity to me.

Paul

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought this at first too. Bet 300 and make the small stack fold hands like A6 or K3. Seems reasonable. If the button weren't involved, betting would be the obvious choice.

On second thought, I'm a bit concerned about tangling with the button here. He is the one we really should be worried about.

Normally, a semibluff would get your opponent to fold Ace-high or 2nd/3rd pair. In this case, you are very likely to be looked up by the BB, so your fold equity is low. That's doesn't mean semibluffing is bad; it's just not going to be successful often enough to risk getting involved with the button, IMO.

For example, I bet 300, BB calls, and button min-raises. Dammit. Now I have to call. If I check, BB pushes, button min-raises, I can fold.

Of course, if it goes check-check, that's fine too. If BB pushes and Button calls, I definately call and hope the Button checks the turn with a dry sidepot (assuming I miss on the turn).

This double-gutshot is a non-obvious draw, so if I can stay in cheaply, I might be able to get a big chunk of the button's stack if I hit.

[pooh74]

great post Phil!

[RobGW]

Let me say this again. You can pass up marginal +EV and still win. But you can take those opportunities to kill the game. BTW, I am killing the game. I do agree with you about not completing and betting out the flop though.

[ilya]

Yes, I call. I think you have too many outs &amp; your stack is too big relative to the bet to fold this.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling on a draw when you can't possibly win any further chips when you make your draw is almost never correct in holdem.
Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say the pot has 5 big bets in it on the turn and you have the nut flush draw and 1 big bet left in your stack. Your opponent bets; surely you're not saying that you should fold?

Aren't there too many situations like that to say that calling on a draw is "almost never" correct?

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone bet out here? This looks like a good semi-bluff opportunity to me.

Paul

[/ QUOTE ]

If it was HU with the short stack, definitely. But here I'd rather see what the button does after shortie's push.

[curtains]

I would have made a small bet on the flop to avoid this situation. I would bet 200. Probably you shuold call the allin, espcially because your pair outs could be good too.(he could easily have a hand like A8).

[curtains]

After reading the first few responses, I notice that people are ignoring the fact that you checked the flop. I hate checking the flop and would bet 200 here every time. Even if it checks around and the butotn steals and bets 200-300, it's not a great situation for you. I would bet out and if raised a reasonable amount by the big stack, I'd usually fold, and of course I'd call the small stack.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Calling on a draw when you can't possibly win any further chips when you make your draw is almost never correct in holdem.
Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say the pot has 5 big bets in it on the turn and you have the nut flush draw and 1 big bet left in your stack. Your opponent bets; surely you're not saying that you should fold?

Aren't there too many situations like that to say that calling on a draw is "almost never" correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

This thread is about a preflop call, not a turn call. It is quite easy to invent a situation where you are getting a huge price to call a draw with just a few chips even though there are no implied odds.

My point wasn't to see if anybody could think of an exception... that's easy to do. My point is that there is more to decision making than pot-odds in SNG poker. If your draw has no implied odds, its value is easy to calculate (pure pot-odds). But the value of folding is much more difficult to quantify. That's why when decisions are close, it's nice to have something tipping the scales for you... like an outside chance that more than one opponent will pay you off if you hit.

Phil Van Sexton makes some very interesting points about passing on marginally +EV situations for reasons that are difficult to quantify. But I'm not sure I agree. Just because something is difficult to quantify doesn't mean it isn't a bigger mistake to ignore it than it is to consider it too much.

I tend to think that underestimating survival equity is a bigger mistake than passing on marginal situations. It looks like Phil believes that passing on the marginally + situations is more dangerous. Who knows which tendency is more likely to hurt your results?

Usually with hands like this, you get people on both sides and nobody can make a compelling argument one way or the other. So the value isn't in figuring out what the right answer is, but rather, in learning how different people approach the problem. Phil gave me something else to think about in these types of situations (as he often does). The purpose of saying something like "calling a draw in holdem when you can't win more chips when you hit is incorrect" is simply to provide a quick ground-rule which is usually correct for reasons too complicated to hash out while you're playing 8 tables.

Irieguy

[curtains]

I just read Phil van sextons reasons why he didn't bet and I have to say I disagree with them. First of all he gives a few worst case scenarios where the BB calls (There is absolutely NO reason why we should expect the BB to call. He checked with 2 random cards preflop and could easily have nothing, this in particular was very faulty thinking to me and I can't imagine how one can say that we are very likely to be called by some bozo with 2 random cards).

Second of all, the button will often just fold. If they call it's not a disaster, if they raise a lot its also not a disaster. However I often just pick up the pot by betting here (and I would bet 200, not 300 with practically any hand I bet here, to increase my odds), and if you are played with by the shortstack its no big deal anyway. The parlay of the shortstcak calling and then the Button min raising, is going to be a pretty rare occurance.

[ilya]

Nice post, Irie. Sorry about the snippy reply.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
I just read Phil van sextons reasons why he didn't bet and I have to say I disagree with them. First of all he gives a few worst case scenarios where the BB calls (There is absolutely NO reason why we should expect the BB to call. He checked with 2 random cards preflop and could easily have nothing, this in particular was very faulty thinking to me and I can't imagine how one can say that we are very likely to be called by some bozo with 2 random cards).

Second of all, the button will often just fold. If they call it's not a disaster, if they raise a lot its also not a disaster. However I often just pick up the pot by betting here (and I would bet 200, not 300 with practically any hand I bet here, to increase my odds), and if you are played with by the shortstack its no big deal anyway. The parlay of the shortstcak calling and then the Button min raising, is going to be a pretty rare occurance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not really sure what the point of my rambling post was earlier. I didn't mean to say that the BB was very likely to call. I just meant that he was much more likely to call than someone with 1000 chips. If he has anything, he's calling. Therefore, this semibluff is less likely to work than normally. That is all.

Given my folding equity is less than it normally would be, I would elect to check and see what happens. I might let the BB see a free card with J3, or he might bluff with 32o. It's way too complicated for me to figure out.

All the worst case scenarios really had no point. I could easily be convinced that a semibluff is appropriate. I'll just stick to the original argument which was clearly a call.

[willie]

i make the call, but to avoid this sticky situation i bet half the pot on the flop generating the odds to make this call

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't....but I did some quick and dirty ish....and figure you're 40/60 at best vs. a range given to villian....

And that doesn't take into account that he's more likely to be playing hands that have hit here....rather than any two hands he limped with

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

I pokerstoved it:
random hand: 52%
any pair, Qx, 8x, 7x: 41.7%

This isn't marginal at all. If I were BB, I would push with any hand except Qx/88/77/87 which I would check.

[curtains]

Well if you are going to call a bet by the shortstack, I think it's proper to bet yourself. Because it's such a close call if he pushes, I think you should generally bet on the flop here.

[curtains]

btw I agree that it's a pretty clear call on the flop, whioh is why Im even more inclined to bet, as I obviously dont want to raise with some BS hand, when I have only ten high.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
btw I agree that it's a pretty clear call on the flop, whioh is why Im even more inclined to bet, as I obviously dont want to raise with some BS hand, when I have only ten high.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if it were heads up, a bet would be clearly a good move...you could get killed here with two left to act and a T high.

[TeenerBall]

I wouldn't call it OE..maybe 2 way gutshot..but you do have a strong draw.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I didn't....but I did some quick and dirty ish....and figure you're 40/60 at best vs. a range given to villian....

And that doesn't take into account that he's more likely to be playing hands that have hit here....rather than any two hands he limped with

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

I pokerstoved it:
random hand: 52%
any pair, Qx, 8x, 7x: 41.7%

This isn't marginal at all. If I were BB, I would push with any hand except Qx/88/77/87 which I would check.

[/ QUOTE ]

I poker calced it last night giving the small stack a pre-flop range of hands ('top' 30% or so)...leaving out big hands. I got +50 chip win on average or so. Something like ~40% win with this particular flop vs. that range. I figured that he's be a bit more likely to push if the flop was favorable for him but I didn't really take that into account. Anyway, with Scuba's ICM math (which I did myself and got the same thing) I think it's a marginal +$EV...certainly not big enough to dissuade me from passing it up.

So, while I'd fold pre-flop and bet out post flop...when I do face this situation I like a fold as I think I can find a better spot for my 330 chips...the tricky thing is that you call, win and now have a clear big stack. This is very enticing and why I think I would call during game conditions. However, I don't like the stack confiuration when I call and lose looking at it now....and I sorta don't mind and actually like the way it is if I fold.

I'd like to think I'm going to outplay the shorty in the next few hands and don't mind keeping him in

Yugoslav

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to think I'm going to outplay the shorty in the next few hands and don't mind keeping him in


[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you can outplay him on future hands because he has outplayed you badly on this hand if you fold.

[Scuba Chuck]

I learned a new term in this thread, and a new concept to ponder...

"survival equity"

Lots to think about now...

Scuba
who thinks it sounds like a good weak/tight scuba word.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to think I'm going to outplay the shorty in the next few hands and don't mind keeping him in



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



I hope you can outplay him on future hands because he has outplayed you badly on this hand if you fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

Very strong point. And laughing out loud. I think Yugo thinks (as I do sometimes as well) that he can outplay him with his crafty preflop decisions. Unfortunately, I don't completely agree anymore. They're getting dangerously close to desperation mode (like dfscott's post). I want shorty out. If it were 4 handed, I'd feel different. I continue to not comprehend why you're comfortable with shorty here 5 handed.

[Scuba Chuck]

Curtains, maybe there's a greater point for me to learn here. When is it a good situation to bet out postflop?

I'd like to write out the answer to this question and be critiqued by those of you who suggest betting out is better.

You bet out here because you might win the pot right here. But betting out here isn't appropriate if I didn't at least have some sort of draw, or semi-made hand. If I fail to win the pot by my betting, then I will have created good pot odds for me to win the hand if shorty pushes, otherwise, I'm folding to other big stacks advances. In short, I'm betting to win. If I don't win, I have a second opportunity to win if shorty plays.

That being said, if I didn't have this type of hand, checking would then be more appropriate, correct?

[curtains]

Sometimes I bet out on flops with nothing, but a lot of the time I have at least something, especially when a very short stack is involved so I have some hope if they play with me.

If you plan to call the shortstack's allin, I truly think checking is terrible. The button is folding most of the time anyway, you think the button wants to just indiscriminetly raise to 600-1000 just because we should fear him. Most of the time they just fold....if they call, it's not that big a deal either.

Sometimes I don't have a great way with words, so I feel like my points aren't as lucid as they could be, but I know that checking with the idea of calling the BB's allin is fundamentally unsound.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
I think if it were heads up, a bet would be clearly a good move...you could get killed here with two left to act and a T high.

[/ QUOTE ]

How exactly can I get killed here?? Im betting 200 chips, I ahve like 1800 remaining. If my opponents fold 50% of the time, Im making an automatic profit. If my opponents fold 25-30% (or probably even less!) of the time I think its still autmatic profit, as sometimes youll be racing the BB with plenty of chances to win the pot.

I'm hard pressed to believe they won't fold this often, as from my experience they fold around 50% of the time in a lot of these cases. It's just some blind with 2 random cards and someone who limped on the button.

[Al P]

Hmm, would Giga's block model make this a super easy call?

[Newt_Buggs]

great thread

I'm surprised that more people haven't discussed the pf complete. Calling preflop really looks like its leaking chips to me.

[curtains]

I think calling preflop is fine, although sometimes I don't call in this exact spot because BB pushes a lot more frequently when so shortstacked.

[Newt_Buggs]

My main concern is that the most common flop that you are going to get that you can like is something like Kawhe,10,5 which can get tricky to play out of position without good reads. Also, with the BB so short I like betting out here, but if he had more chips I would often check this flop. In the $50s I will often get loose players limping in w A8 and call a flop bet even if he misses and only has A high.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, would Giga's block model make this a super easy call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Doubt it..,winning this pot doesn't give you enough of an extra chunk vx. the rest of the field...of course, losing doesn't hurt your current chunk too much either. Leaving short around isn't a very bad idea b/c it makes it easier to attack other stacks (or maybe shorty doubles up from a 1900 stack and now you do have someone almost outchunked).

Yugoslav

[microbet]

Dunno, you win and you have 2760 or so, 2 stacks at about 1900 and one at about 1100. You can attack small stacks blind without fear of being crippled and if small stack is a little shorter you certainly have a lot of power over the bigger stacks on the bubble.

Perhaps it doesn't get you all the way there, but it could get you most of the way there.

Just talkin' though, I'm not a -EV disciple yet.