Posted by request: LP blind hand

[mperich]

I thought this hand played VERY straightforward but was asked to post it anyways. I guess the only debate is whether to post the LP blind behind the button or not. Thoughts? Villains thoughts?

-Mike

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Hero posts a blind of $10.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, Hero (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB folds, MP folds, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, Button calls, SB calls.

River: (20 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 23 BB

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess the only debate is whether to post the LP blind behind the button or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be a very lopsided debate.

Scott

[mperich]

Is posting an LP blind not correct 6 handed? Cuz ive been doing it a lot. Do you think its correct 10 handed?

-Mike

[stinkypete]

calling the raise preflop is very loose. even completing the small blind with 3 limpers is questionable at best, and that's with much better implied odds.

[mperich]

Ed Miller Article (http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/issue2/Miller0205.html)

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
Ed Miller Article (http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/issue2/Miller0205.html)

[/ QUOTE ]

where does he recommend calling raises with unsuited connectors? the weakest hands he talks about are Q3s and T6s, which are far stronger than 87o.

[Interested]

I'd make this call with 9:1 pot odds. He can catch straight draw and 2 pairs or better 1 in 8.7 times. So odds not to catch it 7,7:1. IMO

[kiddo]

Good article. Im sure Miller would agree that this is an easy call preflop.

In his "Middle limit holdem poker" Ciaffone got a chapter on posting blinds. He says that if u are not the one posting u should see it as a raise/fold situation, dont let him in for free and also the pot is bigger so there is more to steal (Miller says the same thing when he says people are raising more if another blind is posted, without saying its always good).

Anyway, then Ciaffone talks about how to play when u are the one posting. He says u should raise any2 if u are first in:

[ QUOTE ]
Raising automatically may seem like strange advice, but the likelihood of you winning the pot outrightwith only three oponnents holding random cards is high enough to make this ploy correct. You also have position over two of three oponnents if they choose to play. This situation is a lot different then if you didnt have anything invested toward playing, because here it costs you only half as much to give you a chance to win the money. (319-320)

[/ QUOTE ]

So, my question is: Is Ciaffone right on this. Should we autoraise from CO if we post and we are first in? I normally do it with a lot of hands, not all, but a lot.

Also, I dont think u lose a lot posting in late position. Big Blind normally loses 0.15BB/hand and now u have positon so something like 0.1BB would be right. Since good players never post in SH game its a small investment to make the others think u are not that good ($2 in my 10/20). Also, if u raise with something like 87o and hit straight they will think u are even worse and not consider u a threat, which normally is good.

[stinkypete]

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Good article. Im sure Miller would agree that this is an easy call preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm sure Mr. Miller would have included a small unsuited connector as an example in his article if that were the case.

[kiddo]

Ciaffone says we should raise any 2 in this position and u says we should fold this preflop. You think Ciaffone is wrong?

[Lmn55d]

It seems to me that the games Ciaffone is writing about are pretty different from 10/20 6max. Namely, your folding equity from a CO raise is less and "the likelihood of winning the pot outright" is not as high.

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems to me that the games Ciaffone is writing about are pretty different from 10/20 6max. Namely, your folding equity from a CO raise is less and "the likelihood of winning the pot outright" is not as high.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I dont think so. If I look in Pokertracker about 1/5 of my steals are won without flop at 10/20, 6max. And I steal with pretty ugly hands, like JTo in CO unless button is very loose.

How many of yours are won without flop?

If they treat this raise as a normal raise it looks like u should raise with any 2 when u have posted in CO.

[Lmn55d]

I don't think it would be profitable to raise with 23o if your steals are successful 20% of the time. So if you post blind, 20% of the time you win 2.5BB and 80% of the time you lose or win a certain amount depending on what happens postflop. So .5BB +.80x would need to be greater than zero, assuming x is the amount you win/lose those times you are called. So as long as you didn't lose .625BB those times you are called it would be profitable to raise. But the thing is people are gonna be more likely to call you since there is more money in the pot than usual...so your steals will work less than 20% of time if you post blind. These are just some rough calculations and could be misguided though.

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
the thing is people are gonna be more likely to call you since there is more money in the pot than usual...so your steals will work less than 20% of time if you post blind. These are just some rough calculations and could be misguided though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Totally agree, they will defend more and also I think pokertracker defines steal as a raise first in from CO or button and if that together is 20% obviusly it will be more on button and less in CO (but I think blinds give a little more respect when u raise CO).

I post pretty often (and I do it for metagames purposes, I wont them to think Im not good... this is the only metagame consideration I do because I dont think people normally care so metagame stuff isnt worth much) and if its folded to me I raise liberally, something like 60-70% of my hands.

I dont think u did the math right, or if I read to fast (got a bit of a hangover). In your calculations it looks like there is a way to not lose money, but there isnt, we are sitting in a (posted) blind. If we only check we will still lose money. Its not that our raise must go breakeven, it must only be better then checking. If we say we lose 0.25BB those time we check with 87o it is this we want to beat by raising. If a raise loses less then 0.25BB overall its profitable so our stealsucess doesnt have to be that great. It is same as when we defend from BB, we are often not looking to win but losing less then our big blind.

[Grisgra]

I think posting is silly, that it's an obvious preflop call when it comes back to you, and that you played it fine, EXCEPT I might have gone for the checkraise 3-bet on the turn, as I fully suspect the button is going to raise SB's bet. That'd look stronger than what you did here, though (maybe discouraging a turn cap) and as it happened you got as many bets in on the turn as was humanly possible, so kudos!

[btspider]

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Ciaffone says we should raise any 2 in this position and u says we should fold this preflop. You think Ciaffone is wrong?

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hero isn't first in.

[kiddo]

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I think posting is silly

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It cost u something like 0.1BB and everyone else thinks u are silly. Isnt that worth 0.1BB?

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think posting is silly

[/ QUOTE ]

It cost u something like 0.1BB and everyone else thinks u are silly. Isnt that worth 0.1BB?

[/ QUOTE ]

Everyone is going to think you are silly for like two hands, and then forget about it probably! I know I do. If I really thought it impacted table image in any way, then I'd say it was worth it, but I just don't think it is. Not exactly the most expensive mistake one can make, admittedly /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
Ciaffone says we should raise any 2 in this position and u says we should fold this preflop. You think Ciaffone is wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

i definitely think he's wrong. where does he say that?

EDIT: i see that you think hero was first in. if that were the case, i would like the raise.

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
I think posting is silly, that it's an obvious preflop call when it comes back to you, and that you played it fine, EXCEPT I might have gone for the checkraise 3-bet on the turn, as I fully suspect the button is going to raise SB's bet. That'd look stronger than what you did here, though (maybe discouraging a turn cap) and as it happened you got as many bets in on the turn as was humanly possible, so kudos!

[/ QUOTE ]