54K Stat Check. Need EXPERT ADVISE ONLY!!!

[Zygote]

Please don't comment if you don't know hwat you are talking about. Don't reply with something you simply learned from reading a stat critique. Unless you understand the stats very well, i would honestly prefer if you didn't comment. Thanks in advance to those who do.

Right now i'm at the bottom of a -210BB swing. This is my biggest swing and is the reason why i am posting. I believe my game is just regressing, but i definitely have some leaks. Please help me find them!!! I'm already on to fix some things post flop, but need outside advice.

http://img152.exs.cx/img152/375/untitled38bx.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[Zygote]

sorry guys my bad........ i'm trying to do too many things at once.

[Broken Glass Can]

I think this forum is a great place to get advice. You don't want advice just from those nits that never think about anything but poker, do you?


Here we have varied interests and a better perspective on life.

Unfortunately, I can't help you, because I don't actually play poker. (or so many other posters tell me /images/graemlins/tongue.gif)

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Parentheses go before the period.

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Assuming these are not 6max stats, YOU RAISE TOO MUCH PREFLOP!

[Zygote]

they are 6max stats

[vulturesrow]

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Parentheses go before the period.

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nit /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Dead]

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Parentheses go before the period.

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nit /images/graemlins/smile.gif

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Goober.

[Dead]

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they are 6max stats

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Your flop agg is purdy high there pardner.

[Felix_Nietsche]

I make money playing poker which makes me better than 90% of all players... But to get a true expert's opinion will cost you $200/hr so I'll think you'll find this advice cheaper...

I'm assuming you're playing limit. I only play no limit but I might be able to help.
To do a complete diagnosis look at the "Summary" tab of your stats and sort by:
1. Players you win money from
2. Players you lose money to
Then ask yourself, is there a pattern?

Often poker comes down to being a game of rock-paper-scissors. If you choose the wrong strategy vs the wrong player, you will get your clock clean. If you see a pattern in the types of playing styles you are losing money to, THEN you have discover a leak. And players like me are analyzing you for patterns to see which strategies to apply to suck the most money out of you.

Look at your game selection. Are you playing against tough players? If so why? Better to see a movie than play against good players. There is a $1 theatre near my home that visit when the tables get bad. For a 6-handed game I would like a minimum of 2 weak players in the game. What is your standard? Do you even have a standard?

If this all fails then move down a level and see if that changes things. Sometimes when a major league pitcher gets knocked around and brief visit to the minors does wonders to help his game...

[Felix_Nietsche]

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

It could be other players have adjusted to your style and you need to change gears.
Like I said: Rock-Paper-Scissor

[Zygote]

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Look at your game selection. Are you playing against tough players? If so why? Better to see a movie than play against good players. There is a $1 theatre near my home that visit when the tables get bad. For a 6-handed game I would like a minimum of 2 weak players in the game. What is your standard? Do you even have a standard?

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Good points. I do concentrate on game selection, although, you're are right, i try to make do with the games at certain times when i should just goto a movie. My standard is pretty much the same as yours, 2 bad players.




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If this all fails then move down a level and see if that changes things. Sometimes when a major league pitcher gets knocked around and brief visit to the minors does wonders to help his game...


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i do'nt understand? Even though i'm in a downswing, i'm still beating the game pretty strongly. i was at 2.6BB/100 before my downswing, but 1.87 still isn't bad (i'm not trying to say either of these are my winrate, but i think i can tell i am long term profitable player by now)

[Zygote]

i don't understand your subject?

[adios]

I figured you posted this here due to the reception your post got in the heads up and short handed forum /images/graemlins/smile.gif. Your downswing could be due to a lot of factors. In reality you have to constantly adapt to your opponents, you may simply be facing tougher competition than you used to face. As someone advised in the short handed forum, you should post hands and post your ideas on topics like defending your blinds and stealing to name two and give other posters a chance to comment. It shouldn't be too hard to separate the good from the bad as well as critically evaluating the responses.

[adios]

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but i think i can tell i am long term profitable player by now)


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Not necessarily. I didn't see any stats on what your standard deviation is maybe I just missed it. What is important is the relationship of your win rate to your standard deviaiton, the covariance. Mason has written about this many times over the years. I suspect that 55,000 hands isn't enough to conclude you're long term profitable. I know that 55,000 hands isn't enough to put the luck factor in the noise level which is what all good players want. I would guess you'd need at least 250,000 hands probably more to filter out the luck factor in your play.

[Zygote]

[ QUOTE ]
Not necessarily. I didn't see any stats on what your standard deviation is maybe I just missed it. What is important is the relationship of your win rate to your standard deviaiton, the covariance. Mason has written about this many times over the years. I suspect that 55,000 hands isn't enough to conclude you're long term profitable. I know that 55,000 hands isn't enough to put the luck factor in the noise level which is what all good players want. I would guess you'd need at least 250,000 hands probably more to filter out the luck factor in your play.

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good points. i think of it as though id need to go on 1,300BB downswing as of now to just break even. therefore, i can fairly assume i should stay a above the profit line.

[Zygote]

[ QUOTE ]
I figured you posted this here due to the reception your post got in the heads up and short handed forum . Your downswing could be due to a lot of factors. In reality you have to constantly adapt to your opponents, you may simply be facing tougher competition than you used to face. As someone advised in the short handed forum, you should post hands and post your ideas on topics like defending your blinds and stealing to name two and give other posters a chance to comment. It shouldn't be too hard to separate the good from the bad as well as critically evaluating the responses.

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i posted it here first by accident. then posted in HUSH. man did they take it the wrong way there! i really had no bad intentions, but now have a bad rep up in that forum.

My downswing is due to a lot of factors that i've somewhat isolated:
-Tougher competition definitely (no one can find great games all day everyday of the week so i should just goto a movie at those times)
-I had just been on an unusually large upswing so i assume regression ahs something do with it.
-Poor play definitel factored in. I had subtle signs of tilt at times too. One strategy problem i had was i was semi-bluffing way too much. i was at 2.6BB/100 at around 45,000hands and started betting out the flop after preflop agression way too much.

[adios]

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Not necessarily. I didn't see any stats on what your standard deviation is maybe I just missed it. What is important is the relationship of your win rate to your standard deviaiton, the covariance. Mason has written about this many times over the years. I suspect that 55,000 hands isn't enough to conclude you're long term profitable. I know that 55,000 hands isn't enough to put the luck factor in the noise level which is what all good players want. I would guess you'd need at least 250,000 hands probably more to filter out the luck factor in your play.

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good points. i think of it as though id need to go on 1,300BB downswing as of now to just break even. therefore, i can fairly assume i should stay a above the profit line.

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Let me just say that I think it's well over even money that you're a winning player. However, we can't say that for a certainty without knowing your variance. If you're a losing player 1300BB isn't enough, you'll eventually lose. Over the course of 55,000 hands luck is a big factor. This beats the hell out of politics /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[Felix_Nietsche]

As for suggesting you move down a level I misunderstood you. I thought you were losing....not winning LESS. I suspect some of your sharper opponents have been making better adjustments towards your play...

[Felix_Nietsche]

You use Poker Tracker....right?
Select the "Misc. Stats" tab and then sort your opponents by profitability ("difference").... Then look for patterns on which opponents give you the most trouble. This can help you find leaks in your game...

[Zygote]

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You use Poker Tracker....right?
Select the "Misc. Stats" tab and then sort your opponents by profitability ("difference").... Then look for patterns on which opponents give you the most trouble. This can help you find leaks in your game...

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thank you very much. this is a great idea!

[Zygote]

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Let me just say that I think it's well over even money that you're a winning player.

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yes this is all i meant to say.

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If you're a losing player 1300BB isn't enough, you'll eventually lose. Over the course of 55,000 hands luck is a big factor. This beats the hell out of politics

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this is all true and i do understand this.

[Felix_Nietsche]

"thank you very much. this is a great idea!"
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Geat Idea???!!! You sound surprised!
Anyone who has even read ONE of my political posts KNOWS that I'm full of good ideas. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Zygote]

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Geat Idea???!!! You sound surprised!
Anyone who has even read ONE of my political posts KNOWS that I'm full of good ideas.


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i'll second that. probably my favorite politics poster, in fact.