Random postflop play hand

[adanthar]

Level 3, and, for a change of pace, back at Party $50. I have 910 chips after an open button 'steal' with AJs the hand before. This time, 2 limpers (who are both LAGgy and suck) to me in the CO and I elect to limp KQ, because raising two hands in a row vs. people that are gonna call this time seems like a bad idea and I'm not folding against people that suck. SB completes, BB checks and it's 5 to the flop and a 250 chip pot.

The flop is K /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif (I have polkadots). SB checks. BB bets 75 into a pot of 250, both limpers fold and it's my turn.

I think there are two good lines here; the one I picked was raising to 250 planning to fold to a push.

[lorinda]

I call and see what happens.

The turn card and ensuing action should help me pinpoint what my opponent's likely holdings are.

Lori

[Irieguy]

I call.

The SB likely folds, and I'm heads-up with position against a player who sucks with a scary board and the best hand. Cool.

Irieguy

[curtains]

I would much rather call too. The problem I have with raising is that the information I gain from it often isn't very valuable. A lot of people will push with hands like AT ace of spades, yet will be much calmer on the turn when a blank falls off. When I raise with a hand like this here I want to be sure that a reraise from my opponent means that I'm losing. I don't think I can be at all sure of that here. People can get very brave with the ace of spades here and two cards to come.

btw - if your opponent called, and a blank came, was your plan to move allin on the turn?

[Roman]

call and see turn.

[adanthar]

Unfortunately, I had no read on the BB at the time other than his bet size, which...well, it probably meant he sucked, but I need at least, like, 1.5 hands to be sure.

[ QUOTE ]
btw - if your opponent called, and a blank came, was your plan to move allin on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I was gonna go with the read (how long he took to call, check, etc.) But my default is to push.

If he calls and then bets anything substantial on the turn I fold.

[lastchance]

Yeah, calling HU seems good. Position is real nice here.

[adanthar]

BTW, I do like calling. My problem with calling is the reverse of everyone else's problem with raising - now he's probably gonna bet the turn because I have a spade or something, and I really don't want to have to push him off it. Plus, there's at least a quarter of the deck that makes me done with the hand whether he has a spade or not (spades and aces, because an ace of spades is a very possible card for him). So the question is whether he 3 bet pushes his draw, as opposed to something that beats me, more than 20% or so.

I think that probably breaks even, and I really didn't want to figure out what to do if the turn was the J /images/graemlins/heart.gif and he put me all in, so I raised. But I can't blame anybody for calling and that may be better.

[Irieguy]

Nah, I think you can play the turn pretty comfortably. If the turn comes a blank and he puts you all-in, you can beat him to the pot and be shown a worse king or bare As plenty often enough for it to be $EV/CEV/ /images/graemlins/cool.gifEV/whateverEV positive.

But with most of his holdings, he'll check the turn. That's where the hand gets interesting. I just talked to Zen about this and we'd take different lines if the turn was a blank and the BB checks.

I don't like moving chips around on the flop for two reasons:

1. Curtains' reason
2. The fact that playing scary boards with position on the river after playing passively can be hugely profitable because of how often a busted draw will get froggy.

Irieguy

[microbet]

If the draw doesn't hit, you might win a huge pot. If it does hit you don't lose a huge pot.

As opposed to possibly inducing a push on the flop, where if the draw doesn't hit you win a huge pot, but if it does hit you lose a huge pot.

Sounds good. Is that right?

What could villian possibly do to convince you that he was ahead all along? Also, if a scare card comes and you get pushed off the best hand, so be it? You think a four flush on the board would keep villian from bluffing?

And, of course, I'm interested in anyone's thoughts here.

[microbet]

A very interesting thread, I think. I don't want to see it die so young.

There has been a lot of interest in post-flop play lately. Maybe some of the night shift wants to comment.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
If the draw doesn't hit, you might win a huge pot. If it does hit you don't lose a huge pot.

As opposed to possibly inducing a push on the flop, where if the draw doesn't hit you win a huge pot, but if it does hit you lose a huge pot.

Sounds good. Is that right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, I think so.

[ QUOTE ]
What could villian possibly do to convince you that he was ahead all along?

[/ QUOTE ]

Show me a winner and take my chips.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if a scare card comes and you get pushed off the best hand, so be it? You think a four flush on the board would keep villian from bluffing?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would try to play the hand in such a way as to not get pushed off the best hand. He won't bet a 4th spade if he doesn't have one on the end. If he does, his timidness will be transparent.

I'd like to see some more opinions about this hand, too.

Irieguy

[The Yugoslavian]

Well, I know you don't need my opinion on this matter...but...

I really don't think you're inducing enough bluffs on the river here to make it worth checking behind a benign turn. You're giving the villian a shot at a flush card and if he's scared of the board on the turn and not going to pay you off, I don't think he'll feel differently on the river.

Vs. certain monkeys the turn check behind is clearly the best option. However, the average monkey I think is too timid to warrant a free card (they also play weirdly when hitting weak/mediocre flushes and so I think it's hard to play any spade that falls on the river).

However, while I don't feel too, too strongly that either betting or checking behind on the turn is clearly better than the other. I certainly think the most profitable flop play is a call and will easily get you into the least amount of trouble while allowing you to extract the most amount chips.

Yugoslav
Who has no clue whether he's winning or losing over the last couple days.....and it feels GRRRRRRRRREAT!

[lorinda]

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ks Ts 9s
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc Qd 537 54.24 453 45.76 0 0.00 0.542
As 7h 453 45.76 537 54.24 0 0.00 0.458 </pre><hr />

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Ks Ts 9s 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc Qd 32 72.73 12 27.27 0 0.00 0.727
As 7h 12 27.27 32 72.73 0 0.00 0.273</pre><hr />

Sucker, even break, never give one.

Lori