View Full Version : Downsing or just leveling out?
I've recently hit a downswing of 75BB over 1500 hands.
Here's my question. I was at 3.8 BB/100 for 3/6 over about 7K hands. I felt this was pretty high given my skill level...
I had 400BB to move to 5/10 and did so. The games I played at were very soft indeed; however, I've seen enough runner/runners to start a frickin NY city marathon, and my big pps are running at about -3.5BB each
So, over the last 2000 5/10 and 3/6 hands, I've lost 75BB; however, this puts my overall win rate for 3/6 and 5/10 at 2.5, which is they type of player I would say I am...
Could a swing like this just be something to level you off statistically, theoretically.....am I smoking weed or does this making any sense at all?
I do not think the 5/10 level has anything to do with my swing...the players have actually been worse at the tables I've been at than the 3/6 tables I played.
DMBFan23
04-06-2005, 11:15 AM
my first ~750 3/6 hands: +123 BB
my next 1500 3/6 hands: -20 BB
for a still sweet winrate over a pretty meaningless sample.
the moral: I knew I wasnt a 23 BB/100 player, so I'm not really surprised it happened now as opposed to later /images/graemlins/wink.gif
Frequitude
04-06-2005, 11:19 AM
QTip, my guess would be that it is a downswing that has the effect of leveling your winrate out. How's that for an answer! /images/graemlins/cool.gif
But seriously, if -75 BB over 2000 hands moved your winrate from 3.8 to 2.5, you're definitely still in the very short term (no math, just seems like it). While you may actually be a 2.5 BB/100 player, I would still expect to see your winrate fluctuate quite a bit on either side of this until you get a couple ten thousand more hands under your belt!
PokerBob
04-06-2005, 11:24 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I've recently hit a downswing of 75BB over 1500 hands.
Here's my question. I was at 3.8 BB/100 for 3/6 over about 7K hands. I felt this was pretty high given my skill level...
I had 400BB to move to 5/10 and did so. The games I played at were very soft indeed; however, I've seen enough runner/runners to start a frickin NY city marathon, and my big pps are running at about -3.5BB each
So, over the last 2000 5/10 and 3/6 hands, I've lost 75BB; however, this puts my overall win rate for 3/6 and 5/10 at 2.5, which is they type of player I would say I am...
Could a swing like this just be something to level you off statistically, theoretically.....am I smoking weed or does this making any sense at all?
I do not think the 5/10 level has anything to do with my swing...the players have actually been worse at the tables I've been at than the 3/6 tables I played.
[/ QUOTE ]
I think this has got to be leveling off, but it is indeed a downswing. I think it is tough psychologically because of the past success you've had, at least it was for me. (I was +2.7bb/100 for my first 20K at 3/6 and then POP! Now through 33K at 3/6 my bb/100 is 1.03. Meh.) After reading what everyone had written in my whine thread, I've come to grips with (or at least tried to) the fact that I ran hot, and now I'm running cold, and eventually I'll run hot again. IMO the key is to soften the edges. Lose the least when you are losing and win the most when you are winning. The best way to do both of those is to play well, and you do. I am rambling.
Well, that's the thing.....the several tens of thousands of hands I do have under my belt (in PT - got it only a couple months ago) put my at about 2.8, and I always felt that was about right for my skill level coupled with my picky table selection criteria...
I didn't see why I would be better at a higher level.
The interesting thing is that this downswing has been mostly comprised of amazing suckouts...however, I was at 6BB/100 for about 4000 hands where I was running hot..so that's my thought process of leveling out.
Unfortunately for my BR, the vast majority of the -75BB swing happened at 5/10 /images/graemlins/frown.gif....back to 3/6 with my tight a$$
[ QUOTE ]
Lose the least when you are losing
[/ QUOTE ]
I need to make a large post made up of my big pps that are getting hammered, and have you guys review them to see if I'm really losing the least I can. I'll have to do that tonight as my database is not here.
I read the first line and stopped. 75 BBs is nothing.
So I'm told. The chief just told me I'm a statistical freak. This is my worst downswing over at least 80K hands (conservative estimate).
However, sfer, I'm more interested in the conceptual thought I had not so much the size of the downswing.
Your results shouldn't mean-revert since each hand is independent of the prior hands.
Frequitude
04-06-2005, 11:43 AM
I'm definitely not doubting your number of hands, I've been following the ridiculous number of your posts in the past couple months! I think I just misunderstood you. I didn't realize the winrate shift was over żour entire 3/6 and 5/10 history.
Either way though, this is definitely just a minor blip along the way. It had such a magnified effect on your WR because of the higher limits.
The exact same thing happened to me when I tried to move up to 2/4 two weeks ago. Over 15000 hands at 1/2 I was running at 5BB/100. Then I got hit by a bus and was -125BB over 1200 hands at 2/4. That REALLY magnified the shift in my winrate. So many times I almost posted a thread saying "I'm good, what's wrong", but resisted the urge. I knew AA would eventually hold up again. I have since moved back down to 1/2 6max, am running normal again, and will take another stab when I hit 500BB for 2/4.
Frequitude
04-06-2005, 11:44 AM
[ QUOTE ]
So many times I almost posted a thread saying "I've been running good, what's wrong", but resisted the urge.
[/ QUOTE ]
There, fixed my post.
Edit: fixed it again.
Now you're talking to me sfer...that's exactly what I was thinking about when I made this post...so, what I've said in this post is not correct...right?
Elementary to you, grad work to me.
You see...your mission (should you choose to accept it) as an experienced player and poster is to make what's elementary to you and make it elementary to me....God speed to you! So please, don't stop reading at -75BB coupled with the word "downswing".
flair1239
04-06-2005, 11:48 AM
I would caution you guys against thinking in terms of streaks. The Gods of probability do not look down and notice your abnormaly high win rate and choose to smite you with a downswing.
In other words if you are running well, it is not preordained that a downswing will level you out. I know you guys know this but it is important to remember. I see a lot of people getting nervous when they are running well, thinking that inevitably they are "due" for a downswing.
The other thing I have seen people on the boards having problems with lately, is comparing their win rates to those of others. I think a lot of these expectations are overinflated. You see comments all the time "well my WR is ONLY 1.75BB/100". I often wonder why that disaapoints people.
It seems to be generally accepted that at 15/30 3BB/100 is running over the game. I would guess over the long term for an expert player the same could be said for 5/10. I am not saying that people should not strive to be better, but I think that people get overly disaapointed because they think their win rate is below average.
Just to share my WR over roughly 35,000 hands at .5/1 and 1/2 was 3BB/100. My winrate at 2/4 over 15,000 hands was .99BB/100. My winrate at 3/6 over 15,000 hands was 2.76 BB/100, my winrate for my first 7,500 hands of 5/10 was -1.25 BB/100, my win rate for the last 2,600 hands has been 5.4 BB/100.
What does all that mean.... really nothing. What matters is that 5 months ago I would have been slaughtered in a 5/10 full game. Now it appears that I can hold my own. That means I have gotten better. Getting better makes me happy.
Anyway rambling post, but I guess if I have a point, it is worry less about what your results. Don't worry about what your long term win rate may be, as it is meaningless day to day as you are a different player each week and so are some of your opponents.
Emmitt2222
04-06-2005, 11:50 AM
[ QUOTE ]
The chief just told me I'm a statistical freak. This is my worst downswing over at least 80K hands (conservative estimate)
[/ QUOTE ]
I hate you. How's that for a statistical analysis.
In all seriousness that is absurd that that is your biggest downswing in that many hands. I had at least 5 swings that big or bigger in my 15k at .5/1 alone and have had at least one at every level since then. Of course people with smaller winrates like myself will have greater swings, but still that is nothing. Over such a small sample size there is no real "leveling out" because tomorow the downswing could continue and you could end up with a negative BB/100 which isnt really leveling out now is it? Only the long run can level out, not 1500 hands.
Look at it this way. Let's say your expectation is 2 BB/100. There's no practical way to know this aside from playing like a bazillion hands and looking at the results, but for argument's sake let's assume you know that 2 is your winrate and it's known with 100% confidence.
You've been running hot for the last 20K hands, winning at a 4 BB/100 clip. What's your expectation for the next 20K hands? It's still 2 BB/100. If you think it's less than 2 BB/100, you're wrong.
Flair..thanks for the response.
[ QUOTE ]
I see a lot of people getting nervous when they are running well, thinking that inevitably they are "due" for a downswing.
[/ QUOTE ]
Then you were watching me....I said many times "I'm waiting for the hammer to fall."
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What matters is that 5 months ago I would have been slaughtered in a 5/10 full game.
[/ QUOTE ]
Honestly...I don't think levels have much to do with anything in this game....I'm serious. Their are only 2 things I think that matter as you move up in levels.
1. Your psyche - I noticed that immediately when I went to 5/10 and kept thinking about the size of the BB...this is bad.
2. Your table selection...I can't stress this enough. The 5/10 tables I've been in lately have been simply amazing! I've been in .50/1 games that would look like a table of pros compared to what I've been in at 5/10.
CourtesyFlush
04-06-2005, 12:03 PM
I had 400BB to move to 5/10 and did so. The games I played at were very soft indeed; however, I've seen enough runner/runners to start a frickin NY city marathon, and my big pps are running at about -3.5BB each
I think it's safe to say that if this is true about your big PPs then you are running badly. They should consist of a big chunk of your profit. Just play it out, you'll get your winrate back up I'm sure.
CF
[ QUOTE ]
I hate you. How's that for a statistical analysis.
[/ QUOTE ]
LOL...that's what the chief was telling me. We noticed a couple of things in our different styles of play. He's much more loose/aggressive than I am, even though interestingly, my AF is a bit higher than his. However, his SD is much higher than mine, and I know I'm at the lower end of the spectrum at about 12...don't know if this has anything to do with swings or the size of them or not...maybe I'm making too much of the stats thing over too small of samples.
Absurd...I guess so, but it's true nonetheless...
Damn!! Change that avatar before my wife kills me for reading this post! Who in the world is that anyway?
flair1239
04-06-2005, 12:14 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Honestly...I don't think levels have much to do with anything in this game....I'm serious. Their are only 2 things I think that matter as you move up in levels.
1. Your psyche - I noticed that immediately when I went to 5/10 and kept thinking about the size of the BB...this is bad.
2. Your table selection...I can't stress this enough. The 5/10 tables I've been in lately have been simply amazing! I've been in .50/1 games that would look like a table of pros compared to what I've been in at 5/10.
[/ QUOTE ]
I see what you are saying and I agree completely with item #1. It took me a little bit to not be disturbed by losing $250 in a night and also to not get too excited about winning the same.
I agree with item #2, especially with the appartent state of 5/10 full games on the sites that I play, table selection becomes very critical.
I don't agree with your overall statement, but I might be being picky. I have noticed a difference between the standard fish that I ran into at 1/2 and to a certain extent at 2/4 than at 5/10. I agree that in the worst cases a bad player is a bad player, but I think as an example the bottom 30% of players who play Party 15/30 would kick the hell out of the bottom 30% of players at .5/1.
[ QUOTE ]
I have noticed a difference between the standard fish that I ran into at 1/2 and to a certain extent at 2/4 than at 5/10. I agree that in the worst cases a bad player is a bad player, but I think as an example the bottom 30% of players who play Party 15/30 would kick the hell out of the bottom 30% of players at .5/1.
[/ QUOTE ]
I do agree with you here. Chief and I were just talking about this yesterday. The standard fish at 5/10 aren't doing things like going to showdown with near the frequency of the poor players at the lower levels. This has an impace on the winrate as well when you do have the best of it. It really starts to put things in perspective when you read HEPAP and SSHE and how the advise can be different....bad players can be very different indeed.
[ QUOTE ]
I've been following the ridiculous number of your posts in the past couple months!
[/ QUOTE ]
LOL! Hey...I'm here to learn how to play better. The only way I know how to do that is to make posts asking for help and for clarification on what I'm reading...
...and...oh yeah...I'm a damn fast typist! I used to be 95 wpm when I typed a lot...now I'm probably at 80 wpm....how's that for a winrate dick waving contest!
flair1239
04-06-2005, 12:23 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have noticed a difference between the standard fish that I ran into at 1/2 and to a certain extent at 2/4 than at 5/10. I agree that in the worst cases a bad player is a bad player, but I think as an example the bottom 30% of players who play Party 15/30 would kick the hell out of the bottom 30% of players at .5/1.
[/ QUOTE ]
I do agree with you here. Chief and I were just talking about this yesterday. The standard fish at 5/10 aren't doing things like going to showdown with near the frequency of the poor players at the lower levels. This has an impace on the winrate as well when you do have the best of it. It really starts to put things in perspective when you read HEPAP and SSHE and how the advise can be different....bad players can be very different indeed.
[/ QUOTE ]
Also some of the trick little fXXXers are more likely to pop you on the turn just for fun.
But seriously I think the difference I have noticed is tha there are alot mor LA-P types, and less LP-P types. And the Last P is not as P as on the lower levels.
pokerstudAA
04-06-2005, 12:24 PM
[ QUOTE ]
He's much more loose/aggressive than I am, even though interestingly, my AF is a bit higher than his. However, his SD is much higher than mine, and I know I'm at the lower end of the spectrum at about 12...don't know if this has anything to do with swings or the size of them or not...maybe I'm making too much of the stats thing over too small of samples.
[/ QUOTE ]
Quit comparing minor statistical details and play poker. Some statistics make a large difference (i.e. vpip/pfr bb/100). However, many of the variations in these other stats do not directly correlate to win rate. I am sure you know this.
Focus on improving your game and not on improving your satistics in comparison to other good players. Focusing on your game will improve the most important statistic BB/100.
[ QUOTE ]
But seriously I think the difference I have noticed is tha there are alot mor LA-P types, and less LP-P types. And the Last P is not as P as on the lower levels.
[/ QUOTE ]
Well said. I still think that a lot of posters here need to focus more time and energy on game selection. Sometimes I think that very skilled players just sit down and crack a game and don't much care who they're sitting with. This arrogance costs them money...period. This being the case because they could be at a different table full of bad players and winning a lot more.
[ QUOTE ]
Focus on improving your game and not on improving your satistics in comparison to other good players.
[/ QUOTE ]
That's the last thing on my mind. If I tried to get my stats to other's here, I'd get the crap kicked out of me. My postflop skill don't warrant my VPIP to be 22....I can't handle it.
I was trying to make some sense at why I've experienced minor and fewer swings as compared to some here.
Thanks...that's what I was after.
That guy
04-06-2005, 01:11 PM
Hey Qtip,
I posted about this not long ago but take a look at the most profitable hands in hold em and see how you have been running with them over the course of an upswing or downswing. My up and downswings generally run 800-1000 hands (at least lately). When AA KK QQ JJ AKs AQs as a GROUP is near breakeven (or losing money), you are in a downswing. When you are winning a lot with these, you are in an upswing.
Some times, you just aren't getting the premium hands over 1000 hand intervals (ie AA once KK once) and it is tough to win at aggressive tables if you don't get that big pair 'fix'.
I get my big downswings and upswings when I am getting AA KK etc and I am getting 4 or 5 cold callers... This seems like a really easy table to beat but it will be very painful at times too as you can easily lose on something like KK many times in a row (8x+).
I have found that if you track these hands, you can get more comfortable with the swings in the game because you know these hands are very profitable hands but that they can go stretches of losing.
CallMeIshmael
04-06-2005, 01:31 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I've seen enough runner/runners to start a frickin NY city marathon
[/ QUOTE ]
Das tip = the man. I loved that.
You'll pull out of it dude, just have confidnence in your game.
Thanks....I know I've not won with KK yet in this strech...nor JJ and QQ won only once. When I go home, I'm going to look at how much I've lost with them as a total percentage of this "swing".
Yeah...your post was the one that I was thinking of.
climber
04-06-2005, 02:21 PM
I think its just normal variance nothign to be concerned about.
Don't tilt and if your not playing your A game put it away for the day.
I was 4BB/100 for my first 10K 3/6 hands. Thought I was God's gift to poker. Now I'm more like 2BB/100 after 23k.
Just dropped 110BB like two days ago and had aces hold up 8 times out of 8 in the midst of that losing slide. Then last night I ran about 8BB/100 for about 1000 hands. These numbers of hands don't really tell you anything.
I second the advice emphasizing table selection.
That guy
04-06-2005, 02:30 PM
my point was not to look at one hand, like AA.
I have had bad downswings where I made a killing on one of that group (AA-QQ AKs AQs). I am just saying often you can make better sense of a downswing by looking at this GROUP, not QQ or KK by itself...
BigEndian
04-06-2005, 02:34 PM
Ding! Winnar!
- Jim
chief444
04-06-2005, 02:54 PM
Owen,
I think now that you have pooh-bah status you should have been seriously flamed much worse than you have been so far for posting this. /images/graemlins/wink.gif You know damn well that 75BB and 1500 hands is nothing. Like I told you, you've been lucky so far. This won't be the last or the worst. If you saw my BB won/hands played chart you'd think it was roller coaster. So consider yourself flamed. And I'm saying this because I don't want to you turn a 75 BB swing into a 275 BB swing by focusing on things that don't matter and playing poorly.
Chief
Thanks for the flaming Chief...in this post I was actually after more along the lines of what sfer offered.
Since I was running pretty well, I was thinking that I was do for a bit of a beating...but that shouldn't be the case. (my thinking that way)
chief444
04-06-2005, 03:24 PM
Any time bud. /images/graemlins/grin.gif
flair1239
04-06-2005, 03:25 PM
I thought this whole conversation seemed familiar. Sure enough a trip through the archives, reveals a simaliar conversation...enjoy
http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=psych&Number=1097573&Forum =,,f12,,&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=1097142 &Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=13275&daterange=1& newerval=1&newertype=y&olderval=&oldertype=&bodypr ev=#Post1097573
You see what I'm saying though....what I learned here in this post?
You already learned me bout this not even being something to pause and think about.
However, I was thinking that I was DUE for some loosing because of I was winning at a nice clip and therefore level out to a different winrate.....however, this thinking isn't right. I should expect to start losing because I'm winning at a nice rate. I can expect to have loosing sessions with varying frequencies and severity....but not for any given reason....that's what I wanted to confirm.
...any oh yeah....GET BACK DOWN TO 3/6 WITH DADDY!!!
Welcome to link hell....and...this sounds familiar!
Link Hell (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2048245&page=&view=&s b=5&o=)
edit: at least yours worked!
chief444
04-06-2005, 03:33 PM
Yep. If I hit the lottey today I'm just as likely to hit it again tomorrow. I don't buy lottery tickets of course though, being a -EV venture.
Flair! You're alright buddy! Thanks for linking to this...I really enjoyed the read there.
Hey...at this point (October 2004), I was still wondering whether or not to cap the turn HU with the second to nuts though!! LOL! (Check out my Pooh Bah post - the one that says "Please work links" and there's a link there to my first post that will offer you some comic relief to your afternoon).
Thanks again...
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