Bjorn
04-06-2005, 10:10 AM
In This post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2074090&page=3&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&vc=1) goodguy_1 posted some very intresting numbers for blindstealing.
And while I wouldn't go as far as to say that this an "ideal" raising distribution from a game theoretical perspective I think they're relativly close to what you should steal with assuming the blinds neither defend much too much or far too little.
That got me thinking about what you should defend your blinds with assuming the raising player steal about the right amount.
Lets assume the following scenario:
Fold to the button who raises, SB folds and you're in the big blind. Lets also assume that our estimate is that the player on the button will raise with
AA-44
A2s+, A2o+
K2s+, K6o+
Q5s+, Q8o+
J7s+, J9o+
T8s+, T9o
98s
and fold all other hands.
Right now the pot is laying us odds of 3½ to 1.
So what kind of equity should we accept as our minimum requirement to at least call? We must not only think about imidiate pot odds here but also of implied odds.
It is my guess that due to the button having position on us for the rest of the hand we will more often end up at the reciving end of those implied odds than the gaining side. (I.e. when we are behind we will be charged more but when we are in front we will be payed less.)
Even so any hand which is at least 50-50 against the buttons hand distribution should be an easy call (or raise). There is after all 3½ small bets in the pot.
On the other extreme any hand which gives you less than 22% equity (i.e. 1 to 3½) against his distribution should be an easy fold.
QUESTION
So at what number between 22% and 50% equity should we draw the line? What's your minimum blind defense requirements?
I also did a little quick and dirty simulations to determine what hands would be playable at differnt thresholds.
If you decide you require 50% you can actually only play these few hands, even against that wide a distribution.:
55-AA, A4s+, A7o+, KTs+, KJo+
Lowering your demands to about 35% means you can more or less play:
All PP, almost any two suited cards, Any A, K or Q plus the best offsuit connectors.
Now to me the first list seems awfully thight and i certanly would want to play more than that. On the other hand some of the hand on the 35% list would not be in my comfort zone postflop on many flops unless i felt i could severly outplay the player at the button.
Playing a hand like 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/club.gif on a flop of
T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
and out of position at that is gona be tricky to say the least.
So, any comments?
/Bjorn
And while I wouldn't go as far as to say that this an "ideal" raising distribution from a game theoretical perspective I think they're relativly close to what you should steal with assuming the blinds neither defend much too much or far too little.
That got me thinking about what you should defend your blinds with assuming the raising player steal about the right amount.
Lets assume the following scenario:
Fold to the button who raises, SB folds and you're in the big blind. Lets also assume that our estimate is that the player on the button will raise with
AA-44
A2s+, A2o+
K2s+, K6o+
Q5s+, Q8o+
J7s+, J9o+
T8s+, T9o
98s
and fold all other hands.
Right now the pot is laying us odds of 3½ to 1.
So what kind of equity should we accept as our minimum requirement to at least call? We must not only think about imidiate pot odds here but also of implied odds.
It is my guess that due to the button having position on us for the rest of the hand we will more often end up at the reciving end of those implied odds than the gaining side. (I.e. when we are behind we will be charged more but when we are in front we will be payed less.)
Even so any hand which is at least 50-50 against the buttons hand distribution should be an easy call (or raise). There is after all 3½ small bets in the pot.
On the other extreme any hand which gives you less than 22% equity (i.e. 1 to 3½) against his distribution should be an easy fold.
QUESTION
So at what number between 22% and 50% equity should we draw the line? What's your minimum blind defense requirements?
I also did a little quick and dirty simulations to determine what hands would be playable at differnt thresholds.
If you decide you require 50% you can actually only play these few hands, even against that wide a distribution.:
55-AA, A4s+, A7o+, KTs+, KJo+
Lowering your demands to about 35% means you can more or less play:
All PP, almost any two suited cards, Any A, K or Q plus the best offsuit connectors.
Now to me the first list seems awfully thight and i certanly would want to play more than that. On the other hand some of the hand on the 35% list would not be in my comfort zone postflop on many flops unless i felt i could severly outplay the player at the button.
Playing a hand like 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/club.gif on a flop of
T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
and out of position at that is gona be tricky to say the least.
So, any comments?
/Bjorn