suicide pool advice

[hutz]

Well, I wussed out last week and took Green Bay instead of Cleveland. I, like many of you, thought Houston had a good shot at an outright win. At least I lived to fight another week.

My top three choices (in order of preference) for this week are:

Houston @ JACKSONVILLE -- I know the Texans are going to sneak up on someone else this year, but I don't think this is the week they do it. I would only consider using Jacksonville a couple more times this year, and those are late in the season (Week 11 @ Houston (secondary pick to Philly @ home against Arizona) and Week 15 @ Cincy (likely my primary pick)). Jax is likely to be the choice of 85% of those of us left in our pool this week.

Arizona @ SAN FRANCISCO -- Contrary to what others have said in previous posts, I think SF has a strong team. They have a nice defense and enough offensive firepower to pull them through. Arizona can ambush unwary teams, but they looked simply wretched against the hapless Cowboys last week. I'd like to save SF for Weeks 13 or 16, if we get that far.

TENNESSEE @ Cincy -- Cincy sucks. I just have a philosophical problem picking road teams. I would only consider using Tennessee two other times -- Week 10 @ home against Houston and Week 17 @ Houston. Week 10, I like Baltimore @ home against Cincy, so Tennessee would be a secondary pick that week.

Any thoughts/guidance will be appreciated. You guys know far more about this stuff than I do.

One final question -- with only ten opponents remaining in this contest (which pays the top three places), how much consideration should I give to "saving" teams for future weeks and, if I should consider that, how far down the road should I be looking? /forums/images/icons/confused.gif

[Clarkmeister]

As I said last week, I feel you are at the point where your only real concern is surviving to the next week.

I like Jacksonville, Buffalo and Frisco, in order, for a pool pick this week. GL.

The Vikes are an absolute lock this week agains the lousy
Chcago Cubs oh I mean Bears

[Clarkmeister]

Just like they were against the previously 1 win Jets?

[D. Andrew]

Please, do not bring this up again. I friggen lost the rent money following Jerry's advice. I figured anybody who claims the Clarkmeister is 'not bright enough to take advantage' of somebodys info must know what they are doing. I, as you know, was bright enough to take advantage of his advice. I hope to be a little more dimwitted in the future.

[hutz]

I think the only time "lock" and "Vikings" should be used in a sentence this season is the following: "They should lock Randy Moss of the Vikings in jail for driving his car into a traffic officer."

[Wildbill]

Depends on how the players are picking. If the picks are all over the map then I would just play it safe and figure with 10 left you probably are in the money within 3 weeks. If its a very uniform group then it might take longer or you could get lucky and have it come up quickly. In any case, I would say plan out a 4 week horizon with the info you gave me. For these teams that means I would save SF for now, a lot of people will be on them but this game would scare me. Arizona does all their damage as a dog when the opponent isn't up for them. With rivalry game in Oakland next week and old rivalry game loss in New Orleans, this looks like a situation a shocker could happen. While this is a division game for 1st place, it doesn't really feel like it so I don't know how intense it will be, but I think the motivation goes more to the Cards. Titans have Houston in 2 weeks, you might want to save that one. Only thing is SF has the Chiefs in 2 weeks and I think that is a team they are much more certain of beating. Just that taking the Titans here would be a hard loss to swallow if they did, just because they haven't shown to be much of a squad so far and even a poor opponent doesn't make for sure victory. That leaves the Jags. A team without a real easy touch for awhile, probably best to just take them now. Houston hasn't played well enough on the road to convince me they are going to win here, I would say take the Jags as they won't be a real clear-cut pick again for awhile unless the Redskins get much worse in 2 weeks.

[youtalkfunny]

"In any case, I would say plan out a 4 week horizon with the info you gave me."

WB has had success in many sports-betting arenas.

I've only been successful in one. Survivor pools.

The leading cause of death to Survivor players is "saving good teams for later". As is often the case, these players don't live long enough to *see* a "later".

Your original post asked, "How far ahead should I be looking?"

The answer to that question is always, "No further than Monday night."

I haven't followed the NFL this year, so I can be of no help to you deciding what team to take.

But in general, DON'T look past this week, and be VERY RELUCTANT to take a road team (that's the #2 cause of elimination).

For certain, this year's Titans team is not nearly good enough to consider taking in a road game.

Hope this helps.

[hutz]

[Wildbill]

I respect the opinion, but...you really need to strategize to win something like this. I agree you need to be concerned first and foremost with winning this week, but I also suggest paying attention to a reasonable timeframe and planning out accordingly. I wouldn't suggest taking a dog or anything, just if two teams are fairly close you would be better off adding another factor. Just think of how poker or any kind of gambling tournaments work. They people that win them most are the ones that strategize to win the tournament, not those that just go with the first play that seems strongest. Sure even total amateurs win tournaments sometimes, but over time your best chance to be a money winner is to use all weapons at your service and holding out a team for a game in a couple of weeks when you see other good opportunities available this week makes all the sense, IMO.

[hutz]

I agree with this theory. It's how I've operated this year and I feel totally comfortable with it. The key is to look at the very close decisions and factor in the respective teams' values for future games. There are always one or two really thin weeks where being one of the few to have the overwhelming favorite team available for you to pick can be a huge advantage.

[Wildbill]

Take the Niners /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif Ouch, first road win for the Texans, sorry man...

[hutz]

That game's going to cost Tim Seder a lot more than it cost me. It still bites, though.

[mikelow]