A baseball bet

[jrobb83]

My friend, occasional 2+2'er maxpowers21 ( not MaxPower), bet me $100 even money that Randy Johnson would win 22 or more games. If he wins 22 or more, I pay him. If he wins 21 or less, he pays me. I accepted the bet and neither of us can back down now, but I thought I'd get OOT's thoughts on who has the edge.

I feel like I have a significant edge in this bet, as it is very difficult for even an exceptional pitcher having a great year to reach 22 wins. Thoughts?

[ClaytonN]

The Baseball Tonight guys are wagering he can get 25, *MAYBE* 30.

Methinks you are -EV.

[JaBlue]

I am a big yankees fan but I am sure you are getting the better end of this one.

[daryn]

you win

tell him he can buy out of the bet now for $50

[MEbenhoe]

odd, 22 is the exact amount of games I predicted Johnson to win this year. That said with all the variables that go into a pitcher winning that many games in a year (which Johnson is easily capable of doing this year) this is probably a +EV bet for you.

[tdarko]

pay up now randy won 16 games on the 4th worst team in baseball history with virtually no run support. when a pitcher goes 16-14 with around a 2.4era and you put him with the yankee lineup 25-30 is possible if he stays healthy

[Paluka]

This is a fantastic bet. Just think of the injury risk alone. Every time RJ gets hurt and starts less than 25 games or so you basically automatically win.

[jesusarenque]

You made a good bet.

[LethalRose]

the yankees rotation faces injury and age issues, Johnson will win at least 25 unless he has a major injury.

[sam h]

[ QUOTE ]
Johnson will win at least 25 unless he has a major injury.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, its not like nobody has won 25 games in fifteen years or anything.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
you win

tell him he can buy out of the bet now for $50

[/ QUOTE ]

"daryn is right"

[InchoateHand]

Where is fanboi when you need him?

[bugstud]

IIRC you can get these kinds of odd on the *field* of MLB pitchers, not just unit alone

[mason55]

he's too old. double the stakes.

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]

The Baseball Tonight guys are wagering he can get 25, *MAYBE* 30.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is mostly his basis for the bet, and while I will readily admit that Randy is more than capable of winning 23-25 games this season, I believe the chance of this happening are far less than 50% or even 30%.

[ QUOTE ]
Just think of the injury risk alone. Every time RJ gets hurt and starts less than 25 games or so you basically automatically win.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was the most compelling reason for me taking the bet without even looking at stats on number of wins of various similar pitchers over the last few years. It is simply an extraordinarily difficult feat to win 20+ games, even for a great pitcher having a great year. There are simply so many things that need to go right for you that the odds can't possibly 50/50 that he will break 22 wins.

[tdarko]

randy is less likely to have injury with the yankees than the lousy d-backs (though he is frickin ancient). his pitch count's will be way down this year, just think of all the games he will get to come out in the 5th of 6th because the yankees are blowing out the d-rays or some other terrible team. last year he was having to throw 130+ pitches everytime out just to keep his team in the game and he still pitched incredible.

[Jack of Arcades]

Dude, the Baseball Tonight guys know jack about projecting statistics.

Randy injury history = spotty
Yankee defense = teh suck
Randy = 41
Yankee offense = overrated.

[mmbt0ne]

Regular season only?

[daryn]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
Regular season only?

[/ QUOTE ]

clearly

[mason55]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Regular season only?

[/ QUOTE ]

clearly

[/ QUOTE ]

I put the o/u on 12 games before he hits the DL. I'll take under.

[Jack of Arcades]

Some quick statistics for you from 2004.

Randy Johnson's average pitch count: 104.
Randy Johnson's median pitch count: 104
Randy Johnson's smallest pitch count: 78.
Randy Johnson's largest pitch count: 125.

In fact, he only threw more than 120 three times.
He threw more than 110 13 times.
He threw *less* than 100 pitches 14 times.

[shemp]

In my gut I think he'll do it... but you made an excellent bet. In addition to everyone else's comments on this side I'd say that it is not only his injuries that affect his wins, but his roided out teammates, who play lousy defense, and are slow in the outfield. He's only done it once in his career...

At the same time my brain tells me you made a good bet... The guy should've won the NL Cy Young last year, he doesn't appear to be slowing down. He gets so many innings, he avoids the weak spot of the Yankee staff. Half his starts come in a leftie park (usually against a righty). This could develop into the story of the year as fans watch him go nuts and create it's own momentum.

[tdarko]

[ QUOTE ]
Randy injury history = spotty

[/ QUOTE ]
less workload this year less chance of breakdown
[ QUOTE ]
Yankee defense = teh suck


[/ QUOTE ]
yankees scored 5.5 runs a game last year and randy allowed less than 3, oh and when you punch out 290 your defense doesnt have to do as much.
[ QUOTE ]
Randy = 41

[/ QUOTE ]
tell that to clemens too
[ QUOTE ]
Yankee offense = overrated

[/ QUOTE ]
2nd in the MLB is hardly overrated

[mmbt0ne]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
Regular season only?

[/ QUOTE ]

clearly

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know man, if I was dumb enough to bet that RJ wins 23 games, I'd sure try to weasel my way into a situation where "wins 23 games in the year" means 23 games in all of 2005.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
less workload this year less chance of breakdown

[/ QUOTE ]

Already addressed this.

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2nd in the MLB is hardly overrated

[/ QUOTE ]

Because they have the exact same team as last year, right? Except they replaced Cairo with Womack, and everyone's a year older.

[tdarko]

[ QUOTE ]
Because they have the exact same team as last year, right? Except they replaced Cairo with Womack, and everyone's a year older

[/ QUOTE ]
not sure what you mean by this, womack is better than cairo and since its the same team you are telling me they are only better than what they were last year which was the 2nd best offense in all of baseball.

[Jack of Arcades]

1) Tony Womack is in no way better than Miguel Cairo.
2) Yankee hitters were already old last year. The youngest started this year is A-Rod, and 29. Everyone else is above 30 and due for declines.
3) You're ignoring the fact that I owned your sorry ass with regards to pitch counts.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
1) Tony Womack is in no way better than Miguel Cairo.
2) Yankee hitters were already old last year. The youngest started this year is A-Rod, and 29. Everyone else is above 30 and due for declines.
3) You're ignoring the fact that I owned your sorry ass with regards to pitch counts.

[/ QUOTE ]

nice points, but I'll add a couple things that the yanks have going for them on the offense:
Arod could be better, Giambi has to be better.

Matsui might be better, if he can match his Japan translations. Sheff might be a slight bit better.

That's it. Enjoy that .300 OBP from Womack when he hits .260 like he should /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]
his pitch count's will be way down this year, just think of all the games he will get to come out in the 5th of 6th because the yankees are blowing out the d-rays or some other terrible team. last year he was having to throw 130+ pitches everytime out just to keep his team in the game and he still pitched incredible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jack of Arcades already gave you the pitch counts.

Your reasoning for his pitch count going down also doesn't make all that much sense. Sure, there will be more blow out situations in the 5th or 6th, but Randy was often lifted in those innings last season for a pinch hitter cause the d-backs coulndn't score any runs. He will also be facing american league lineups and therefore a dh rather than pitcher or mediocre pinch-hitter. Methinks his pitchcount will rise, not fall, if he remains as healthy as he did last season.

[tdarko]

[ QUOTE ]
1) Tony Womack is in no way better than Miguel Cairo.

[/ QUOTE ]
looks like he is so far, .444 BA and 2 sb's in 2 games
[ QUOTE ]
2) Yankee hitters were already old last year. The youngest started this year is A-Rod, and 29. Everyone else is above 30 and due for declines

[/ QUOTE ]
yankee hitters have won for years with older hitters like brosius, o'neill, bernie etc. situational hitting and forcing pitchers to go deep in the count as been a formula that works.
[ QUOTE ]
3) You're ignoring the fact that I owned your sorry ass with regards to pitch counts

[/ QUOTE ]
there is no need to be childish and curse at me, congrats you got me on the pitch counts...but i can tell you this for a fact it is a lot less taxing on your body when you are throwing with a 8-1 lead than it is with a nail biter because you have a team (d-backs) that had the worst defense in the league (139 errors compared to the yankees' 99). the more errors the more pitches you throw period.

[jesusarenque]

[ QUOTE ]
1) Tony Womack is in no way better than Miguel Cairo.

[/ QUOTE ]
looks like he is so far, .444 BA and 2 sb's in 2 games
[ QUOTE ]


Yup, and Dmitri Young is the greatest homerun hitter ever. I mean, he did hit THREE on opening day. He should finish with about 500 this year.

[tdarko]

randy pitched on one of the worst defensive teams ever last year, the dbacks committed 40 more errors than the yankees did last year. errors equal more pitches thrown, just because r. johnson is a complete animal and is able to get out of jams unlike most does not account for the fact that throwing 100 pitches in 5 or 6 innnings is harder on the body than throwing 100 in 7 or 8 innings.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
looks like he is so far, .444 BA and 2 sb's in 2 games

[/ QUOTE ]

So 9 ABs that show he's a .444 hitter outweigh the 5000 ABs that show he's a .274 hitter with little discipline and no power?

[Jack of Arcades]

Jesus, there are still people like you?

Do you even play poker? Are you the kind of person that thinks because you flipped a coin and it was heads last time, there's only a 25% chance of it being heads this time?

[tdarko]

haha so this is your argument, cairo vs. womack? do you realize how insignificant this? if you are trying to win a cairo/womack argument then you have no argument.

fact #1. yankees will score a lot of runs
fact #2. yankees defense is better than d-backs
fact #3. because of fact #2 r.j. throws less pitches
fact #4. healthy giambi, jeter w/o the horrible first half, and a-rod with one year in NY under is belt=more production

[tdarko]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you even play poker? Are you the kind of person that thinks because you flipped a coin and it was heads last time, there's only a 25% chance of it being heads this time?

[/ QUOTE ]
without a smart ass comment what is this in reference to?

[Jack of Arcades]

#2 is far from correct. The Yankees have likely the second worst defense in baseball, behind Arizona. Using errors to judge defense is foolish.

#3 is wrong becuase #2 is wrong. He'll throw more pitches, because he has to get a DH out instead of a pitcher.

Jeter, Sheffield, Posada, A-Rod, Bernie, Matsui + 1 year = less production.

Miguel Cairo was one of the better hitting 2B in the league last year, and he was great defensively. Womack has shown in the past he is nothing but bad with both the bat and the glove.

[Jack of Arcades]

Your lack of understanding of statistics.

[tdarko]

[ QUOTE ]
Jeter, Sheffield, Posada, A-Rod, Bernie, Matsui + 1 year = less production.



[/ QUOTE ]
how do you come up with this? age has seemed to produce more lately

[tdarko]

i understand baseball and how it is played (no need to get into that) and errors (when talking about pitch counts) is the stat to look at instead of fielding percentage. it is a baseball fact, if a team commits 40 more errors than another team then the pitcher will throw more pitches on the team with more errors. you cant dispute that.

i am just guessing this is what you are talking about when you say that i dont have an understanding for stats.

[Jack of Arcades]

120 years of MLB history

Jeter's best year = 1999 (25)
Bernabe's best year = 1998 (29)
Sheffield's best year = 1996 (27)
A-Rod's best year = 2000 (24)
Posada's best year = 2003 (31) - which happens when you don't start playing regularly until you're 27.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
i understand baseball and how it is played (no need to get into that) and errors (when talking about pitch counts) is the stat to look at instead of fielding percentage. it is a baseball fact, if a team commits 40 more errors than another team then the pitcher will throw more pitches on the team with more errors. you cant dispute that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Except that if an arizona player gets to a ball and bobbles it, it's an error, while if a yankee player watches it go past him, it's not. The pitcher has thrown the same amount.

I'm saying that measuring defense by errors (or fielding percentage) will get you nothing.

[tdarko]

this is irrelevent, especially with the more productive guys. just because a-rod put up astronomical numbers in 00' has nothing to do with production at an early age since he has put up numbers very close to it every year since.

i will say this, even though you have been kind of a dick in a few posts it's nice to have someone hear to talk baseball and not just people that bash it b/c they don't understand it.
i don't understand hockey too much but i would never bash it b/c its a sport that deserves respect. just my two cents

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
this is irrelevent, especially with the more productive guys. just because a-rod put up astronomical numbers in 00' has nothing to do with production at an early age since he has put up numbers very close to it every year since.

i will say this, even though you have been kind of a dick in a few posts it's nice to have someone hear to talk baseball and not just people that bash it b/c they don't understand it.
i don't understand hockey too much but i would never bash it b/c its a sport that deserves respect. just my two cents

[/ QUOTE ]

Arod may have the a better year this year, BP seems to think it's a good shot anyway. Just the statistically inclined posters on here, especially after that cliutch thread, really don't have fun trotting out the numbers time and time again. I'm not even that good with it, I just do entirely too many fantasy leagues not to be familiar with it.

Essentially, notice how Nate doesn't post much about baseball here...

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you even play poker? Are you the kind of person that thinks because you flipped a coin and it was heads last time, there's only a 25% chance of it being heads this time?

[/ QUOTE ]
without a smart ass comment what is this in reference to?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I flip a coin twice, the probabilities of:
2xH: 25%
1xH, 1xT: 50%
2xT: 25%

You flip it once, and it lands heads. Clearly, when you flip it again the probability of it being heads is only 25%, because 2xH only happens 25% of the time.

[tdarko]

[ QUOTE ]
Except that if an arizona player gets to a ball and bobbles it, it's an error, while if a yankee player watches it go past him, it's not. The pitcher has thrown the same amount.



[/ QUOTE ]
when did yankee infielders start watching balls go past them? this really makes zero sense.

brandon webb and i share the same agent (seriously, just trying to point out why i understand what the d-backs staff had to go through is all) and webb has countless stories about how he had to throw 7 outs in an inning and about how instead of throwing 15 pitches in an inning he is out ther for 20 extra minutes and 30 extra pitches. he also mentions the lack of range his defense had, balls dropping that should be caugh etc. the yankees had a decent outfield (sheffield is shaky) matsui and bernie are very good at roaming out there.

the d-backs got to less balls and made more errors than the yankee last year, say what you want about "do you even play poker" and "flipping coins."

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
you win

tell him he can buy out of the bet now for $50

[/ QUOTE ]

This sounds about right.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
when did yankee infielders start watching balls go past them? this really makes zero sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since Derek Jeter started playing shortstop?

[ QUOTE ]
matsui and bernie are very good at roaming out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bernie's the worst regular defensive cf in the league. Sheffield's one of the worst defensive players in the league, period. Derek Jeter's one of the worst defensive shortstops in the league. A-Rod's one of the best, but he's at third...

The Yankees defense wasn't insanely horrible last year because A-Rod and Cairo put up some very solid years. However, Cairo's gone and replaced by Womack (who was one of those guys Webb was likely complaining about), and everyone, once again, is a year older. Age declines defense a lot more rapidly....

PS: Tell your buddy Webb that his troubles (and I use that term lightly, he was pretty good last year) probably had more to do with his declining K rate and ballooning BB rate than his defense.

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
Essentially, notice how Nate doesn't post much about baseball here...

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, be sad he doesn't. It's pretty clear he puts some thought (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3881) into the game.

[Benholio]

There are a bunch of silly arguements in this thread. Give the yankees the #1 offense and #1 defense in the league, and it still isn't even money for anyone to win that many games.

Clearly it is possible (he won 24 for arizona in 2002), but it is also clear that it is unlikely (of his 16 seasons, only once did he win enough to pay off this bet).

Find out what other players this guy is a fanboi of, and make some more hugely +EV bets off of him while you can.

[tdarko]

i am just going to hope you are one of those die hard boston fans that hates all yankees and looks at each individual player without realistic thought after reading this post.

you saying bernie and jeter are two of the worst defensive players in the game is laughable, defense is what has kept bernie a float on a team that can buy any centerfielder they want and jeter is one of the better shortstops around and the only reason jeter's errors are high every year is because he gets to more balls than most, and you are a statistic guy--the more chances you have the more chance of error correct?

[jrobb83]

The D-back's defense last season was about as bad as it could get for a good deal of the season. Trust, me, I watched a great deal of their games. Webb was the major recipient of the ineptitude of the defense.

Randy, however, fared much better. His run average was 3.22, which was higher than his earned run average (2.60). Webb on the other hand had a run average of 4.80 but an earned run average of only 3.59. He was far more affected by the poor defense, likely due to his strong reliance on his sinker; wheras Randy was less affected, likely because of his extremely high strikeout rate.

So all in all, the change in defenseive scenery probably isn't going to make a huge difference. Randy strikes so many batters out it minimizes the effect poor defense has on his performance. Plus no matter what you say, defensive statistics say that the yank's defense is pretty awful, and that Williams is among the league's worst center fielders. They may not be '04 D-backs bad, but they will be pretty bad.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]

i am just going to hope you are one of those die hard boston fans that hates all yankees and looks at each individual player without realistic thought after reading this post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Far from it. I regularly watch yankee games. I hate no player, I just try to judge them objectively.

Bernie Williams scouting report, ESPN

[ QUOTE ]
For Williams, the biggest dropoff in production actually might have occurred on the defensive side. A four-time Gold Glove recipient, he now is seen as a liability in the middle of the diamond. Injuries and age have forced Williams to play an even deeper center field. Balls routinely drop in front of him and he rarely challenges an advancing baserunner because of his poor arm. Williams also knows his limitations on the bases, and no longer tries to stretch the double into a triple. Years of experience and plenty of guile still make Williams useful on the bases.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's the overwhelming consesus that Bernie Williams is a horrible defender.

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]

IIRC you can get these kinds of odd on the *field* of MLB pitchers, not just unit alone

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

There are a bunch of silly arguements in this thread. Give the yankees the #1 offense and #1 defense in the league, and it still isn't even money for anyone to win that many games.

Clearly it is possible (he won 24 for arizona in 2002), but it is also clear that it is unlikely (of his 16 seasons, only once did he win enough to pay off this bet).


[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.

[ QUOTE ]

Find out what other players this guy is a fanboi of, and make some more hugely +EV bets off of him while you can.

[/ QUOTE ]

Shhh, he may read this. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[maxpowers21]

yes i am the fool who took on this even money bet, and maybe it was not the best mathematical bet to take. But I have some very solid reasons for doing so:

1. 16 wins on a team with 50 some wins total in 1 year.

2. Johnson has been injured exactly 1 year out of the last six.

3. He has exactly 4 cy young titles in the last 6 years, last year he did not recieve one, despite leading the league in strike outs, top 5 in era, and pitching a PERFECT GAME agaisnt the braves.

4. If Randy were to pitch the exact same as he did last year with the yankees run support alone, he would have easily had 26-28 wins. Easily.

5. This is more emotional based then anything but... Johnson wanted to be traded to the yankees. He wanted to have some sort of shot at hitting 300 wins in his baseball carreer. He will pitch games to win this year, maybe this will result in injury, but i highly doubt he will be taken out of games in situations where he coudl go deeper into games with a lead and potential win, certainly not in the 2nd half of the season. he's that type of competitor.

6. look at Roger /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
4. If Randy were to pitch the exact same as he did last year with the yankees run support alone, he would have easily had 26-28 wins. Easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bullshit.

[maxpowers21]

[ QUOTE ]
There are a bunch of silly arguements in this thread. Give the yankees the #1 offense and #1 defense in the league, and it still isn't even money for anyone to win that many games.

Clearly it is possible (he won 24 for arizona in 2002), but it is also clear that it is unlikely (of his 16 seasons, only once did he win enough to pay off this bet).

Find out what other players this guy is a fanboi of, and make some more hugely +EV bets off of him while you can.

[/ QUOTE ]

he had 21 wins in 2001, sooo close though /images/graemlins/smile.gif. And as Jrobb said earlier defense is not nearly as big an impact agaisnt Randy Johnson. If he has low era, and high strike outs, like he has had all but his injured season in oh say the past 6 seasons, errors will on average be a bigger factor for the opposing pitchers.

The run support the yankees shoudl offer, is nothing Randy Johnson has had on any team throughout his basbeball carrer. Period.

I shoudlve made some alternate bet, that he woudl either win 22+ or lose 5-, because the way yankees come back from games it woudl seem, maybe not probable, but very possible for RJ to lose no more then 4-5 games with 30 soem starts

[maxpowers21]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you even play poker? Are you the kind of person that thinks because you flipped a coin and it was heads last time, there's only a 25% chance of it being heads this time?

[/ QUOTE ]
without a smart ass comment what is this in reference to?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I flip a coin twice, the probabilities of:
2xH: 25%
1xH, 1xT: 50%
2xT: 25%

You flip it once, and it lands heads. Clearly, when you flip it again the probability of it being heads is only 25%, because 2xH only happens 25% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I truley hope this last sentence is a typo, because this is very wrong. I'll give you a hint.....independent random variables.

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you even play poker? Are you the kind of person that thinks because you flipped a coin and it was heads last time, there's only a 25% chance of it being heads this time?

[/ QUOTE ]
without a smart ass comment what is this in reference to?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I flip a coin twice, the probabilities of:
2xH: 25%
1xH, 1xT: 50%
2xT: 25%

You flip it once, and it lands heads. Clearly, when you flip it again the probability of it being heads is only 25%, because 2xH only happens 25% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I truley hope this last sentence is a typo, because this is very wrong. I'll give you a hint.....independent random variables.

[/ QUOTE ]

Try to read my comments as explaing what "this is in reference to." It'll make more sense.

The only thing keeping me from a PhD in applied math is laziness. Trust me. I get it.

edit - also, I think you took the sucker end of the bet. You'd almost certainly find a better o/u elsewhere.

[maxpowers21]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you even play poker? Are you the kind of person that thinks because you flipped a coin and it was heads last time, there's only a 25% chance of it being heads this time?

[/ QUOTE ]
without a smart ass comment what is this in reference to?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I flip a coin twice, the probabilities of:
2xH: 25%
1xH, 1xT: 50%
2xT: 25%

You flip it once, and it lands heads. Clearly, when you flip it again the probability of it being heads is only 25%, because 2xH only happens 25% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I truley hope this last sentence is a typo, because this is very wrong. I'll give you a hint.....independent random variables.

[/ QUOTE ]

Try to read my comments as explaing what "this is in reference to." It'll make more sense.

The only thing keeping me from a PhD in applied math is laziness. Trust me. I get it.

edit - also, I think you took the sucker end of the bet. You'd almost certainly find a better o/u elsewhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

From an EV standpoint, on further reflection on this bet I would agree, but I still think there is a strong possibility, assume RJ does not get injured, of accomplishing this. what i did was take a mass consesus of people who i think are underestimating his pitchign abilities and expected production and made a slight over-estimate on what he will probably do. And i do beleive it is slight.

I beleive i am a +EV bet on 20+ wins.

[jesusarenque]

[ QUOTE ]
i am just going to hope you are one of those die hard boston fans that hates all yankees and looks at each individual player without realistic thought after reading this post.

you saying bernie and jeter are two of the worst defensive players in the game is laughable, defense is what has kept bernie a float on a team that can buy any centerfielder they want and jeter is one of the better shortstops around and the only reason jeter's errors are high every year is because he gets to more balls than most, and you are a statistic guy--the more chances you have the more chance of error correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, this is ridiculous. If you are arguing that Bernie and Jeter are good defensive players, then you have absolutely zero credibility. Just give it up. By any useful statistical measure, they are among the worst (if not the worst) their respective posistions. This is laughable.

[maxpowers21]

P.S. I wish Schilling didn't start the year on the DL so i could wager he would win 20+ games this year as well /images/graemlins/smile.gif, but he'll still lead teh Bo-Sox in wins this year. Go D-Backs!!! Oh wait no we gave those guys up /images/graemlins/frown.gif