I hate this hand.

[gh9801]

What should I do in these types of situations? PP 20+2. I'm UTG

Table Table 14945 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 7: Alaskan83 ( $515 )
Seat 4: gh9802 ( $1180 )
Seat 9: rockway1 ( $1445 )
Seat 2: caretaker1 ( $955 )
Seat 5: pc831 ( $850 )
Seat 3: babykairi ( $2445 )
Seat 8: samPnutz ( $610 )
Trny:11050641 Level:5
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to gh9802 [ As Js ]

[Edge34]

Without any real information on the table and how it got to this point, I'd say push your 6BB in and hope for the best.

[lastchance]

I push.

[Maulik]

its soooteddd

[Jordan]

call me tight, but i fold, what worse hands are going to call, what better hands are folding? we'll either be in a coinflip or dominated, unless some clown calls with his A9o, which is possible, but i wouldn't get my hopes up.

[microbet]

http://newyork.urbanbaby.com/ub_daily/images/sevenjeanslife.jpg

You're tight.

[raptor517]

micro u need to get out more.. 3uo

[microbet]

What are you talking about dude? I've been out this year already and it's only April.

[raptor517]

lol, looks like ima have to come back to cali and get yer arse back out to commerce to play pai gow with me. holla

[curtains]

Jordan, I'm sad to say that folding is a terrible mistake. Before you suggest folding, you need to do the math and ask yourself how likely is it that someone will have a better hand than yours. Then figure out what % of the time you'll win against those hands.

If you do this math, you would see that folding here is simply terrible. It's not at all close but a terrible mistake that if you repeatedly make should leave you unable to consistantly win as much as possible in sit and go's. Note that AJo would be just as easy of a push here.

I find it interesting that so many people suggest folding certain strong hands, without actually knowing how likely it is for their hand to be beaten by the random hands to act behind them.

[Jason Strasser]

This is an easy push but my reasoning is different than Curtains.

You need to be most desperate with 4-5xbb because if you eat the blinds again then you lose your folding equity. As a tournament player you must cherish your ability to win chips without showdown--thats what keeps you alive and gives you an edge. When I have 4-6xbb Im willing to open push with basically anything because I believe it is much more correct to do so, then to risk eating blinds. Once you lose your FE (< or = to about 3bb) then you can tighten up and go down fighting in the blinds if worse comes to worse (or enter the blinds against a very tight sb who may fold a lot).

The point is, the value of your hand here doesnt even matter. I'd shove all sorts of crap before I ate another blind level.

Oh yeah, did I mention when I played sngs my most common finish was first, and second most common was fourth?

-Jason

[curtains]

Note that what I said wasn't my actual reasoning, it was just the fact that people don't really do the math. The math alone makes it an obvious push, not to mention all the other factors that are involved.

[Jason Strasser]

Bah math bath smath who needs it

[curtains]

I guess I never thought about it that way.

[raptor517]

i did. i like shoving and hoping they fold cuz they do most of the time. thats all the math i need. holla

[gh9801]

I've always pushed and hoped in this situation. Lately I've been running into hands after I push early position in these types of situations, so I was just making sure this push is still +EV.

Anyways in this particular hand I pushed, some douche called with AK and I rivered a jack. Yay.

[raptor517]

yea.. some douche bag called with the best hand and you sucked out. what an idiot /images/graemlins/wink.gif holla

[EasilyFound]

[ QUOTE ]

Note that what I said wasn't my actual reasoning, it was just the fact that people don't really do the math. The math alone makes it an obvious push, not to mention all the other factors that are involved.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a huge flaw in my game---I don't know how to figure the math---so I never know when calling or folding is mathematically correct. Can you quickly show how the math works here? Can I use pokerstove for this kind of thing? Or do I have to use my own brainpower?

[curtains]

It's not easy to figure out, but the following chart can help - http://www.decf.berkeley.edu/~chubukov/rankings.html.

I can tell you that mathematically if you have 2000 in this spot, it should be +EV chipwise to go allin as opposed to folding. (Of course at this point raising less may be an option)

I have to get ready to catch a plane so can't go into great detail.

[EasilyFound]

Drats! The link doesn't work. Thanks and have a safe trip.

[curtains]

erase the period at the end. Out the door now, byebye!

[EasilyFound]

your the best. thanks.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
The point is, the value of your hand here doesnt even matter. I'd shove all sorts of crap before I ate another blind level.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm guessing that strassa would've pushed on one of the previous 5 hands, rather than waiting until he's UTG and then "shove all sorts of crap".

If you agree with his strategy of stealing with a lot of hands to stay ahead of the blinds, you shouldn't wait until you are UTG to use it.

[EasilyFound]

I can now view the chart (http://www.decf.berkeley.edu/~chubukov/rankings.html) but I'm not sure I understand the last column of numbers, unless it is as simple as saying if in any tournament, no matter what the blinds, if your stack is above that number, you're getting +EV if you push all in. Is it that simple? Or does the number fit into some formula that I don't know? Perhaps someone else can answer this question.

[microbet]

The chart is an answer to some problem on 2+2 posed by Sklansky. I don't know what the question is though. I think the info that is helpful in this situation is the 96 that is next to AJs. I think that means something like there are 96 out of 1225 hands that are better than yours. I don't know, maybe that's it.

I'm not sure if that is really the issue though. You don't want to be called by hands that you are a slight favorite over either, as it would be better to just steal the blinds. Anyway, in calculating the $EV of the situation you need the likelyhood of being called (possibly by more than one player), and what range of hands they are on and how well you do against those hands. Your opponants can't see your cards after all.

Seems like everything depends on observation of how people play and can't be calculated. I think the two ways to get an answer are to look at a huge database of plays and see what works or to use the conventional wisdom of wise players.

Anywho, I could be making a fool of myself. If so, I'm sure I'll get rightfully pwned.

[EasilyFound]

I think I understand up to the last column. Earlier in this post, curtains said going all-in w/$2000 is +EV. According to the chart, "Max Stack For EV > 0" for AJs is 183.221336.

I'm trying to figure out the relationship between those two numbers. I guess I need to search for the original Sklansky question.

[Raiser]

LINKY (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=382772&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1)

The original problem was something like. I get A8o in the SB. It's folded to me. What is the maximum amount that I can risk in an all in situation (i.e. the smaller of your stack and the BB stack) so that pushing and showing my cards to the BB is not a mistake.

I hope that made sense. Check the link. It's a pretty cool thread.

[microbet]

Buh, that seems to be based on HU play. It also seems to be based on specific blinds and certainly specific stack sizes. The link that Raiser provided is good, but that thread refers to another thread that must have more info about the problem.

If I get time I'll search for the other thread, but it won't be easy as Sklansky has a million similar threads and it is 3 years old. If anyone knows it, it would be great. That guy on the Berkeley website should have linked to it.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
call me tight, but i fold, what worse hands are going to call, what better hands are folding?

[/ QUOTE ]

300 chips...who needs em...that's basically what you are saying.

BTW, no offense Jordan, but you are the IDEAL SNG opponent.

[Jason Strasser]

You are correct. but in the event that it was always opened before me and I didnt have a chance to raise i'd probably opt to shove it in here with most hands instead of eating blinds.

[gh9801]

What range of hands would you raise in this situation? Would you push with KQ or 22, for example?

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands would you raise in this situation? Would you push with KQ or 22, for example?

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you read his post?

When he says he would push with "most hands", this means "greater than 50% of hands". Q8, T9, etc.

I don't mean to speak for Strassa, but he isn't a regular poster anymore and may not reply.

When he said "most", I'm quite confident this means somewhere between 51% and 99% of hands. As for the exact number, I don't know, but I can assure you that KQ and 22 are not even close to the borderline.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands would you raise in this situation? Would you push with 23 or 72, for example?

[/ QUOTE ]

In keeping with the recent trend of fixing other people's posts.

[microbet]

Ok, next time I'll type faster.

[Paul2432]

[ QUOTE ]
call me tight, but i fold, what worse hands are going to call, what better hands are folding? we'll either be in a coinflip or dominated, unless some clown calls with his A9o, which is possible, but i wouldn't get my hopes up.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are overlooking the fact that there are a lot more worse hands then better hands. You will win the blinds the vast majority of the time. Sometimes you will get called and win anyway. These two factors combined more than make up for the few times you get called and lose.

Paul

[curtains]

One note: No way Im moving allin with over 50% of my hands this hand. I need a good hand to move allin here. (KQo is good enough). Even after the blinds I have 900 chips which is usually enough to steal even when the blinds go up.

[curtains]

Other note: The math I mentioned assumed that you will get called only by a hand that beats AJs, such as any pair, AQ etc etc or even AJo, because they are getting the right pot odds to call preflop. Even in this case pushing is correct with 2000 chips from a chip EV perspective.

Now of course it's not our dream to race against 44, but honestly a large portion of opponents will fold such hands, so this also works to our advantage. The point is that there are other factors at work that can influence your decision, but this should be reserved for situations where the math between two plays is close. In this case the math isn't at all close, and thus it's nearly impossible to come up with an excuse for not pushing.

[Jordan]

I don't play on party often. I'm a stars sng player, so I'm not really used to playing with 5-6bb stacks with 7 players left. I guess I underestimated the folding equity we have, but the idea of having my entire stack in the middle preflop with AJs doesn't seem very appealing. I blame TJ Cloutier for this.

I would try to steal blinds with this hand from late position. It's really the position thing that bothers me. Knowing some big stacks behind me could be waking up with monsters scares me. whatever happened to tightening up UTG? Is it the fact that we don't have to play post flop that allows us to play this hand irregardless of position?

Also this "math" that you talk about sounds very interesting. I'd be interested in hearing what sort of rule of thumb calculations can be done on the spot with regard to blinds, number of players, and my stack size... telling me the right move. I remember reading a thread a while back where El D said that this is what seperates the real masters of NLHE from the typical "good player," the concept of knowing one's "true equity" in a pot. Thanks for your reply. It's exciting to find one of the areas of my game that is completely off, as it means lots of improving to be done /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[EasilyFound]

[ QUOTE ]

One note: No way Im moving allin with over 50% of my hands this hand. I need a good hand to move allin here. (KQo is good enough). Even after the blinds I have 900 chips which is usually enough to steal even when the blinds go up.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, in that spot, you would move-in w/AJs or a hand that is equal to or better than KQo?

[ilya]

Pushing would be +CEV (by more than 0.5xBB) with your cards face-up even if each of the other 6 players could bust you. When you consider that not everyone can bust you, and that there's some chance a weaker or even dominated hand will call you, I think you can enjoy pushing this.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
\whatever happened to tightening up UTG?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing happened to it. It's just that we're talking about AJs, not QTo.

Consider this, AJs is almost a 2:1 favorite NOT to be up against a better hand (AK-AQ, AA-33) with 6 players left to act...and even against that range, it's only a 3:2 dog.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an easy push but my reasoning is different than Curtains.

You need to be most desperate with 4-5xbb because if you eat the blinds again then you lose your folding equity. As a tournament player you must cherish your ability to win chips without showdown--thats what keeps you alive and gives you an edge. When I have 4-6xbb Im willing to open push with basically anything because I believe it is much more correct to do so, then to risk eating blinds. Once you lose your FE (< or = to about 3bb) then you can tighten up and go down fighting in the blinds if worse comes to worse (or enter the blinds against a very tight sb who may fold a lot).

The point is, the value of your hand here doesnt even matter. I'd shove all sorts of crap before I ate another blind level.

Oh yeah, did I mention when I played sngs my most common finish was first, and second most common was fourth?

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Jason,

I think this approach is more applicable at the higher buy-ins than at the $22s, which is where this hand comes from. At the $22s, opponents are more interested in what they are holding and less interested in what pot odds they are getting. So, they'll fold getting 2:1 with a big stack because they don't like their hand, but call a 4-5xBB all-in because they caught A8.
IOW I think that at the $22s you may have less folding equity with a 5-6xBB, but more FE with a 3-4xBB stack, than you would at $55s+. Since you won't run out of folding equity when you pay another set of blinds, there's less value in pushing any two with a 5-6xbb stack.
The caveat here is that I don't have higher buy-in experience. So, the comparisons I'm making are based on what higher buy-in players like you describe.

Good to see you posting again

[curtains]

Im not sure what my exact range is here. But I would fold hands like KTo, since I feel like I'll have plenty of better chances to steal next round, even if the blinds increase. Also in a $22 with a bunch of psychos you will get called a bit too often here to just do this with any 2 cards.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Note that what I said wasn't my actual reasoning, it was just the fact that people don't really do the math. The math alone makes it an obvious push, not to mention all the other factors that are involved.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a huge flaw in my game---I don't know how to figure the math---so I never know when calling or folding is mathematically correct. Can you quickly show how the math works here? Can I use pokerstove for this kind of thing? Or do I have to use my own brainpower?

[/ QUOTE ]

The chart curtains provides is useful for HU play, but doesn't help when there's more than 1 player left to act behind you. Here's what you need to do:

1. add up all the hands that beat yours hot-and-cold. In the case of AJs, these would be AK-AQ, AA-33. these hands add up to 72 (12 pairs * 6 ways of making any given pair) - 6 (2 pairs * 3 ways that are eliminated because you're holding an Ace and a Jack) + 32 (2 non-pairs * 16 ways of making any given non-pair) - 8 (2 non-pairs * 4 ways that are eliminated because you hold an Ace) = 90 hands.

2. figure out what % of all starting hands those hands represent. there are 1326 possible starting hands ((52*51)/2), so 90 hands represent 6.8% of that total.

3. figure out what % of the time any one player will NOT be dealt one of these hands. to do this simply express the % found in step 2 as a fraction and subtract it from 1. so, we get 1-0.068 = 0.932, i.e. 93.2%%

4. now, simply take the % found in step 3 and multiply it by itself as many times as there are players left to act. this will give you the % chance that NONE of these players is holding a better hand than yours. In this case, there are six players left to act. So, we get: (0.932)^6 = 0.655, or a 65.5% chance that no one behind you has a better hand.

5. Now that you know how often someone behind you will have a better hand, figure out what % of the time you will win against that range. You can do this using PokerStove or any other poker odds calculator. Plugging AJs vs. AK-AQ/AA-33 into the 'Stove, we get roughly 40% for AJs.

6. Take the amount you will win when no one calls you and multiply it by the probability that no one will call you. To make the calculations simpler, express the amounts as multiples of the big blind. In this case, you will win 1.5xBB 65.5% of the time. This translates to (1.5)(0.655) = 0.9825xBB profit when no one calls.

7. Take the amount you win when someone calls you but you win anyway, multiply it by the probability that someone will call you, and then multiply it by your win%. For a conservative estimate, imagine that's it's the BB who calls you, and you stand to win your stack + 0.5xBB. In this case, that's 6.5xBB. The call% is 100% - 65.5% = 34.5% = 0.345. The win%, as we found in step 5, is roughly 40% = 0.40.
Multiplying all these numbers together, we get 6.5*0.345*0.40 = .897xBB.

8. Now for the unpleasant part: you get called and lose. Take the amount you will lose (6xBB in this case), multiply it by the call%, and multiply it again by the lose% (100% - 40% = 60% = 0.6 in this scenario). This gives you 6*0.345*0.6 = 1.242xBB

9. Add your results from steps 6 and 7 and subtract the result from step8 to arrive at the CEV for your push. In this case, we get
0.9825 + .897 - 1.242 = .6375xBB =~ a 127 chip average profit. As you can see, pushing AJs from this spot is INEVITABLY quite profitable from a ChipEV perspective.

10. The calculations above assume that all of your opponents have enough chips to bust you. Usually, of course, that's not the case. In this scenario, for example, only 2 opponents out of the 6 can bust you. However, this doesn't affect your CEV calculations a whole lot...the smaller stacks take less when they beat you, and give less when they lose.

Hope this helps,

Ilya

[curtains]

Me and a friend made a spreadsheet where I can enter the hands and it'll tell you how many BB you need to have before pushing with your cards face up is break even, in a 3 handed, 4 handed, handed game and etc. We used that K+S headsup chart for a lot of the data.

The data isn't 100% accurate in most cases, especially those where there are more players involved, however it's a good estimate. Also with a lot of hands like K9s for example, you won't expect to be called by hands like A2o, 33, KTo that would hurt your overall results.

[lastchance]

Can you post the spreadsheet? Please?

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]


Me and a friend made a spreadsheet where I can enter the hands and it'll tell you how many BB you need to have before pushing with your cards face up is break even, in a 3 handed, 4 handed, handed game and etc. We used that K+S headsup chart for a lot of the data.

The data isn't 100% accurate in most cases, especially those where there are more players involved, however it's a good estimate. Also with a lot of hands like K9s for example, you won't expect to be called by hands like A2o, 33, KTo that would hurt your overall results.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds like an awesome tool. I just thought it might be useful to break down the process.

[curtains]

I can't post the spreadsheet without permission from my friend. I can ask him though. In any case I'm in Nashville for a week and it's on my home computer, so remind me then /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[curtains]

btw this spreadsheet itself isn't so valuable, meaning that entering hands during play or whatever isn't likely to be very useful. However studying and entering interesting situations shuold give you a good overall feel and instinct as to what to do in some situations.

You may find out that in some cases where you previously have folded, it's better to move allin and turn your hand face up. Of course your hand will nearly always have more value when face down, thus you can almost prove that folding was wrong.

It helped me in that I had become slightly less aggressive preflop for some reason, after people convinced me I was a little bit overboard. I now disagree with them and am back to playing very aggressively before the flop when I have a reasonably short stack. (5-12x BB)

[EasilyFound]

great stuff here. thanks so much for taking the time. very much appreciated.

[ReDeYES88]

[ QUOTE ]
1. add up all the hands that beat yours hot-and-cold. In the case of AJs, these would be AK-AQ, AA-33. these hands add up to 72 (12 pairs * 6 ways of making any given pair) - 6 (2 pairs * 3 ways that are eliminated because you're holding an Ace and a Jack) + 32 (2 non-pairs * 16 ways of making any given non-pair) - 8 (2 non-pairs * 4 ways that are eliminated because you hold an Ace) = 90 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry to pick nits, but shouldn't the range be AK-AQ, AA-22 resulting in 96 hands?

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. add up all the hands that beat yours hot-and-cold. In the case of AJs, these would be AK-AQ, AA-33. these hands add up to 72 (12 pairs * 6 ways of making any given pair) - 6 (2 pairs * 3 ways that are eliminated because you're holding an Ace and a Jack) + 32 (2 non-pairs * 16 ways of making any given non-pair) - 8 (2 non-pairs * 4 ways that are eliminated because you hold an Ace) = 90 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry to pick nits, but shouldn't the range be AK-AQ, AA-22 resulting in 96 hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, AJs is a favorite over 22 hot-and-cold.

[microbet]

The chart from the link way above did have a 96 in it, but AJs is ahead of 22 and not ahead of 33, at least according to Pokerstove.

[curtains]

Yes but 22 is a +EV call because of pot odds.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]

Yes but 22 is a +EV call because of pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but this doesn't hurt the pusher. I mean, sure it's CEV-correct to call with 22, but the pusher still has a +CEV on the call.

[gh9801]

Whether 22 or 33 beats AJ, it doesn't matter - mathematically it seems that AJs in the long run is a +CEV push in this situation, thanks for the math Ilya

[ReDeYES88]

[ QUOTE ]
The chart from the link way above did have a 96 in it, but AJs is ahead of 22 and not ahead of 33, at least according to Pokerstove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, the Sklansky-Karlson chart has 96 because they are taking into consideration the other 6 combos of AJ.

Thanks . . .you learn something new every day.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The chart from the link way above did have a 96 in it, but AJs is ahead of 22 and not ahead of 33, at least according to Pokerstove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, the Sklansky-Karlson chart has 96 because they are taking into consideration the other 6 combos of AJ.

Thanks . . .you learn something new every day.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 9 other combos of AJ.

[Jason Strasser]

What he said. At some stages really any two will do.

[Jason Strasser]

Yeah, you are probably right. Adjust accordingly I suppose. There is such night and day between 4xbb and 6xbb in my book, but I suppose Ilya makes a decent argument for not being ultra aggressive/desperate with a 6xbb stack at lower levels.

-Jason

[EasilyFound]

[ QUOTE ]
6. Take the amount you will win when no one calls you and multiply it by the probability that no one will call you. To make the calculations simpler, express the amounts as multiples of the big blind. In this case, you will win 1.5xBB 65.5% of the time. This translates to (1.5)(0.655) = 0.9825xBB profit when no one calls.

7. Take the amount you win when someone calls you but you win anyway, multiply it by the probability that someone will call you, and then multiply it by your win%. For a conservative estimate, imagine that's it's the BB who calls you, and you stand to win your stack + 0.5xBB. In this case, that's 6.5xBB. The call% is 100% - 65.5% = 34.5% = 0.345. The win%, as we found in step 5, is roughly 40% = 0.40.
Multiplying all these numbers together, we get 6.5*0.345*0.40 = .897xBB.


[/ QUOTE ]

I can't figure out whether I'm understanding this correctly.

Is it correct that the probability of nobody calling = the probability that nobody behind you has a better hand than you do?

Does your formula assume that nobody with a lesser hand will call?

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]

Does your formula assume that nobody with a lesser hand will call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it does, although it's only because we're undertaking the limited task of figuring out whether a push is *automatically* +ChipEV. Whenever someone calls with a worse hand, that's +CEV for the pusher. So, since no number of such calls can make a push unprofitable, there's no need to consider them.

Of course, if you want to figure out precisely how +CEV a push is likely to be, you should plug your own call- and win-%s into the formula instead of using the "all better hands" range.

[EasilyFound]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Does your formula assume that nobody with a lesser hand will call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it does, although it's only because we're undertaking the limited task of figuring out whether a push is *automatically* +ChipEV. Whenever someone calls with a worse hand, that's +CEV for the pusher. So, since no number of such calls can make a push unprofitable, there's no need to consider them.

Of course, if you want to figure out precisely how +CEV a push is likely to be, you should plug your own call- and win-%s into the formula instead of using the "all better hands" range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. After I posted, and continued to think about this, I realized that pushing and getting called by lesser hands is +CEV. Seems so obvious now. /images/graemlins/grin.gif