Check-Call, Check-Call, Bet With 2nd Pair

[Moozh]

Are the chances that he has QQ, JJ, or TT high enough to do this? The guy is new to the table, so no good reads. Do I fold to the river raise?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

[Megenoita]

I really think you can confidently check/fold the flop. Pot is tiny, you don't know what your outs are, you are crushed by AA, KK, AK. RIO are why we fold here. The check/call, check/call, bet line is great for when we flop top pair against a PF 3-bettor because it minimizes our loss when we lose and maximizes our wins without having us spew. This 2nd pair is really bad because you have no idea if you're spewing or not. Even if you hit what you think might be outs, you still may be screwed. There is a much smaller chance that you're ahead now than if you had flopped top pair.

M

[bakku]

hey drew, i'm definitely not betting the river, c/c if you think villain is aggressive enough to play QQ-TT this way. once u bet, easy fold.

[Megenoita]

Hmmm, after thinking about it more, it seems that it's definitely worth it to stay in this pot. A very vague and quick summary of how things would go AT WORST:

AA (3): -5 SBs = -15
KK (1): -5 = -5
AK (6): -5 = -30

Total: -50

Now, assuming the worst, that you check/call the flop, the turn gets checked through, and the river gets checked through (saying you follow Bakku's advice and don't bet it, even though you might if the turn is checked through--we're assuming worst here):

QQ (3): +8 = +24
JJ (6): +8 = +48
TT (6): +8 = +48

Total: +120

120-50 = 70

70/25 = 2.8 = EV

I discounted the times the distant draws come in because they are negligible, and I assumed a Bayesian calculation because I think he would 3-bet all of the above hands equally, and bet all of them if checked to on the flop HU.

I have to conclude that this is a very profitable play. Unless I'm missing something, which is always possible /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

M

[Moozh]

Wow, thanks for doing the math there. I felt that this was a fairly marginal play when I did it, but the results of the math are better than I thought. I think Bakku's right though, this is a board where I should be check-calling the river. QQ-TT will normally fold to that river bet.

[Megenoita]

Yeah, I definitely think check/calling the river is the way to go /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

M