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View Full Version : Derek Jeter- Clutch?


Voltron87
04-05-2005, 04:48 PM
There is this strange idea that Derek Jeter is not clutch. Discuss.

Boris
04-05-2005, 04:50 PM
I heard he drives a Volkswagon Cabriolet.

Jack of Arcades
04-05-2005, 04:50 PM
Clutch is largely a fallacy, arbitrary, and indeterminable.

jakethebake
04-05-2005, 04:50 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Clutch is largely a fallacy, arbitrary, and indeterminable.

[/ QUOTE ]

You must not be clutch.

Pocket Trips
04-05-2005, 04:51 PM
best defensive play in a playoff game EVER with that cut off play down the 1st base line against oakland a few years ago. Anyone who doesn't think Jeter is a clutch player is either a Yankee hater or an idiot. case closed

SackUp
04-05-2005, 04:51 PM
He has definitely made some big time plays in some big time games. He does it when it matters and in my book that is clutch. I'm not a fan of him and actually think he is a bit of a deuchebag, but he is a champ and gets it done.

prizminferno
04-05-2005, 04:52 PM
He sure was clutch in games 4-7 of the ALCS.

jakethebake
04-05-2005, 04:53 PM
[ QUOTE ]
best defensive play in a playoff game EVER with that cut off play down the 1st base line against oakland a few years ago. Anyone who doesn't think Jeter is a clutch player is either a Yankee hater or an idiot. case closed

[/ QUOTE ]

Was that the one where he was so far out of position you were just wondering, "How the hell did he get there?" If that's the one I remember, it was pretty freaking amazing. I was in awe (and I really dislike Jeter and the Yankees).

bosoxfan
04-05-2005, 04:54 PM
he just clutched the game winning homer off Foulke, the bastard.

Dead
04-05-2005, 04:55 PM
That is correct. He ran to the first baseline all the way from short, and flipped the ball to Posada for the out at home plate.

jesusarenque
04-05-2005, 04:56 PM
There is no such thing as a clutch player.

Voltron87
04-05-2005, 04:57 PM
People who say clutch does not exist are haters. Pretty simple.

It's nice to see Jeter get off to a good start this year, especially with the walk off.

Shajen
04-05-2005, 04:58 PM
I hate the effing yankees, but Jeter is a consistently clutch player in the post season.

It's the intangibles.

God, I'm making a post about how a yankee is clutch. Save me.

jakethebake
04-05-2005, 04:58 PM
[ QUOTE ]
There is no such thing as a clutch player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does that mean there's also no such thing as a choker?

Jack of Arcades
04-05-2005, 04:58 PM
Spouting absolutes just makes you look like an ass.

[censored]
04-05-2005, 04:58 PM
Of course he is.

Huskiez
04-05-2005, 04:58 PM
[ QUOTE ]
best defensive play in a playoff game EVER with that cut off play down the 1st base line against oakland a few years ago. Anyone who doesn't think Jeter is a clutch player is either a Yankee hater or an idiot. case closed

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget about his dive into the stands to save runs from scoring last year against the Sox. I was at the game. That was RIDICULOUS.

Jack of Arcades
04-05-2005, 04:59 PM
It's most likely an indeterminable skill.

Rick Diesel
04-05-2005, 05:00 PM
Would somebody please put him in the hot tub! He is clearly gay.

Voltron87
04-05-2005, 05:01 PM
[ QUOTE ]
There is no such thing as a clutch player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, because every baseball player performs exactly the same way in the post season as in the regular season.

jesusarenque
04-05-2005, 05:01 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Spouting absolutes just makes you look like an ass.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying that there is such a thing? People can make clutch plays, but that does not make them clutch player. Derek Jeter has no special ability to "come through when it counts." For every time someone can name a clutch play he made, someone else can name a time he popped out with the game on the line.

jakethebake
04-05-2005, 05:02 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Would somebody please put him in the hot tub! He is clearly gay.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? You think Derek Jeter's Taco Hole is full of fudge?

Jack of Arcades
04-05-2005, 05:02 PM
"Intangibles" is a word everyone uses but no one uses it correctly.

Clutch plays are by definition, tangible.

jesusarenque
04-05-2005, 05:03 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There is no such thing as a clutch player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, because every baseball player performs exactly the same way in the post season as in the regular season.

[/ QUOTE ]

Baseball players play the same way in clutch situations and playoff situations as they do the rest of the time. Is Barry Bonds clutch? Nope, he sucked his first few times in the playoffs. Oh wait, I mean he is clutch, he ruled in the WS a few years ago. Good thing he "learned" to be "clutch."

jakethebake
04-05-2005, 05:03 PM
[ QUOTE ]
"Intangibles" is a word everyone uses but no one uses it correctly.

Clutch plays are by definition, tangible.

[/ QUOTE ]

But what allows clutch players to always make them aren't.

Jack of Arcades
04-05-2005, 05:05 PM
Derek Jeter, regular season: .315/.385/.463
Derek Jeter, post season: .303/.380/.456

Derek Jeter's clearly a choker.

tbach24
04-05-2005, 05:06 PM
Heh, clutch. There's no such thing as a clutch player. I guess there could be clutch plays though...never really thought about it. If everyone played as well as they could at every moment, then there would be no room for clutch.

jesusarenque
04-05-2005, 05:06 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Derek Jeter, regular season: .315/.385/.463
Derek Jeter, post season: .303/.380/.456

Derek Jeter's clearly a choker.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is exactly what I was about to post. baseball-reference.com rules.

Jack of Arcades
04-05-2005, 05:06 PM
They show up, we're just unable to measure it without a very large sample size.

Voltron87
04-05-2005, 05:06 PM
I think the fact that Yankee haters hate Jeter enough to fill a thread with 30 replies in 5 minutes about how he is not special or anything really proves my point. If he wasn't so good, people wouldn't hate on him as much.

jakethebake
04-05-2005, 05:07 PM
I bet he's afraid of clowns.

Shajen
04-05-2005, 05:07 PM
[ QUOTE ]
"Intangibles" is a word everyone uses but no one uses it correctly.

Clutch plays are by definition, tangible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, you know what I meant.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

jesusarenque
04-05-2005, 05:07 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I think the fact that Yankee haters hate Jeter enough to fill a thread with 30 replies in 5 minutes about how he is not special or anything really proves my point. If he wasn't so good, people wouldn't hate on him as much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not arguing that Jeter isn't good. Jeter is good. (Well, not defensively, but anywho) He just isn't "clutch."

Voltron87
04-05-2005, 05:07 PM
Not all at bats are created equal. Plus you face better pitchers in the postseason. Take all the crappy pitchers from Tampa Bay, Montreal, Detroit, etc, out and see how the stats match up.

Jack of Arcades
04-05-2005, 05:08 PM
Wow, that's great logic! Except it isn't. I hate idiots like you who, everytime someone mentions Derek Jeter isn't Jesus [censored] Christ they get called a hater.

jakethebake
04-05-2005, 05:08 PM
He's very good. But also overrated.

Toro
04-05-2005, 05:08 PM
Red Sox fan here. Yes, defintely.

Voltron87
04-05-2005, 05:09 PM
I would say most of the people who fall over themselves to talk about how Jeter is nothing special are haters, yes.

tbach24
04-05-2005, 05:09 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I think the fact that Yankee haters hate Jeter enough to fill a thread with 30 replies in 5 minutes about how he is not special or anything really proves my point. If he wasn't so good, people wouldn't hate on him as much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love MJ, but I don't think he could be proven as clutch. Given a sample size of 50 game winning shots over a career, any great player could make 70% (or whatever the ridiculously high # was). I think Jeter is a very good player, very underated by most, but I don't think there's any way to measure a person's amount of clutchitimacy.

Soul Daddy
04-05-2005, 05:12 PM
It's nothing against Jeter. He's a fantastic player. It's simply that over time, with a large enough sample size, players' post season performance will largely mirror their regular season performance.

solid
04-05-2005, 05:12 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I think Jeter is a very good player, very underated by most,

[/ QUOTE ]

No way. Think of how many people mindlessly adore him - how can he be underrated?

Jack of Arcades
04-05-2005, 05:14 PM
I just find it funny that anyone can be considered clutch when they fail over 60% of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
Not all at bats are created equal.

[/ QUOTE ]

You quibble with the definition of clutch until it becomes about 8 different plays.

If Derek Jeter would've struck out, nobody would've said anything. Nobody would've said "OMG, Jeter Sucks." But he hits a home run and we have the simultaneous orgasm of 5000 idiots all over message boards everywhere.

Jack of Arcades
04-05-2005, 05:16 PM
As opposed to the people who ruin their underwear everytime he reaches base?

Jack of Arcades
04-05-2005, 05:18 PM
Actually, in the majors, this is probably correct. There's simply not a large enough sample size to make any significant judgment whatsoever.

If I run for 10 BB/100 the day before my rent's due, am I clutch?

bugstud
04-05-2005, 05:18 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I just find it funny that anyone can be considered clutch when they fail over 60% of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
Not all at bats are created equal.

[/ QUOTE ]

You quibble with the definition of clutch until it becomes about 8 different plays.

If Derek Jeter would've struck out, nobody would've said anything. Nobody would've said "OMG, Jeter Sucks." But he hits a home run and we have the simultaneous orgasm of 5000 idiots all over message boards everywhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

well said

tbach24
04-05-2005, 05:18 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think Jeter is a very good player, very underated by most,

[/ QUOTE ]

No way. Think of how many people mindlessly adore him - how can he be underrated?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I meant he was underrated by most people who dislike the Yankees

jesusarenque
04-05-2005, 05:19 PM
It is laughable that many Yankee fans think Derek Jeter is a better player than Alex Rodriguez.

kerssens
04-05-2005, 05:21 PM
its very unsettling to look at Jake's avatar then have to see that mug in your avatar, quite a contrast.

istewart
04-05-2005, 05:25 PM
Everyone is quibbling over this gay term. Just read last year's baseball preview, with Wood on the cover. I think that was when they had a big article on this. It all boils down to sample size, like Jack said. It's incredibly small.

Jeter = the pwn however.

sublime
04-05-2005, 05:30 PM
a very easy yes

The Yugoslavian
04-05-2005, 05:37 PM
[ QUOTE ]
best defensive play in a playoff game EVER with that cut off play down the 1st base line against oakland a few years ago. Anyone who doesn't think Jeter is a clutch player is either a Yankee hater or an idiot. case closed

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a bit like saying that Robert Horry's 3 point shot at the end of the Lakers/Kings game a couple years ago was the greatest offensive basketball play ever.

Simply not true.

Does Jeter play better 'in the clutch'? I would agree with this statement....*but* it's very hard to determine accurately with so much garbage about him being super-human clutch.

The biggest problem here is that I don't think Jeter is all that great to begin with. He's good. Hell, he's very good. It generally takes a great player to actually be clutch or make someone else look clutch.

Yugoslav

sublime
04-05-2005, 05:39 PM
i inderstand your arguanet jack, and i suppose it depends on ones interpretation of the term 'clutch'. however, there is no doubt in my mind that some players play better than others when the heat is on (jeter/wells etc).

B Dids
04-05-2005, 05:40 PM
I can't read this thread, but three misconceptions.

A- The amazing play is one the Yankees practice and have said so in interviews. That wasn't improve on Jeter's part.

B- a SS with range doesn't have to run full bore and dive into the stands (risking injury) on that play. For instance, Alex makes that play easily and it's a non-highlight

C- There has never been any statistical evidence to support the notion of "clutch".

B Dids
04-05-2005, 05:41 PM
[ QUOTE ]
i inderstand your arguanet jack, and i suppose it depends on ones interpretation of the term 'clutch'. however, there is no doubt in my mind that some players play better than others when the heat is on (jeter/wells etc).

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is that year to year, there's never been a player who's numbers are any better in "clutch" situations than others.

What you're doing is the poker equvilant of saying "you flop more sets on Party than Empire".

Jack of Arcades
04-05-2005, 05:44 PM
Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that everybody plays exactly the same all the time, adjusted for the opposition, ballpark, etc.

You'd still have players who would look like they were undeniably clutch. Let's think of it on terms of poker. You and I both beat the 5/10 6-max for 2 BB/100. This is our true talent level, and it never changes. Over 100K hands, what are our winrates? Likely not 2 BB/100.

I mean, Jeter's "clutch" status boils down to what, 10 plays? He doesn't make some of those plays during the regular season, either?

istewart
04-05-2005, 05:44 PM
[ QUOTE ]
What you're doing is the poker equvilant of saying "you flop more sets on Party than Empire".

[/ QUOTE ]

This is correct. So was Jack's analogy.

DougOzzzz
04-05-2005, 05:45 PM
Fixed your subject.

DougOzzzz
04-05-2005, 05:46 PM
Anyone who thinks that Derek Jeter is "clutch" please provide statistical evidence that proves so.

Voltron87
04-05-2005, 05:49 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I mean, Jeter's "clutch" status boils down to what, 10 plays? He doesn't make some of those plays during the regular season, either?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're saying he's just all around awesome, I'll allow it.

Voltron87
04-05-2005, 05:51 PM
[ QUOTE ]
What you're doing is the poker equvilant of saying "you flop more sets on Party than Empire".

[/ QUOTE ]

No, since there is skill involved in hitting home runs, but there is not in flopping sets.

istewart
04-05-2005, 05:52 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What you're doing is the poker equvilant of saying "you flop more sets on Party than Empire".

[/ QUOTE ]

No, since there is skill involved in hitting home runs, but there is not in flopping sets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sample size.

Jack of Arcades
04-05-2005, 05:52 PM
He's above average.

DougOzzzz
04-05-2005, 05:54 PM
Who the hell wants a "clutch" player anyways? Isn't clutch, by definition, the ability to "raise your game" to another level in high leverage situations?

So you want a guy whos basically dogging it 600 PAs a year but "turns it on" the other 100? Sounds like a real winner to me...

Soul Daddy
04-05-2005, 05:55 PM
[ QUOTE ]
He's above average.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, he reminds me of Mike Sanders.

istewart
04-05-2005, 05:57 PM
This is essentially the same thing as saying Beltran is an extremely clutch player, because he had the greatest run of his life in the playoffs last year.

DougOzzzz
04-05-2005, 06:02 PM
If Derek Jeter was so clutch, why did he fail in like, a dozen chances last year to put an end to the damn LCS?

Meanwhile, David Ortiz had 3 walk off hits in the playoffs last year. Nobody else has done that.

Ortiz wins the prized "IF THERE WAS A SUCH THING AS A CLUTCH PLAYER HES IT" Award.

sublime
04-05-2005, 06:03 PM
What you're doing is the poker equvilant of saying "you flop more sets on Party than Empire".

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

also, a poker player could be considered 'clutch'. he performs well when it matters (staying off tilt, taking a beat in stride etc)

Jack of Arcades
04-05-2005, 06:04 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's above average.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, he reminds me of Mike Sanders.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sweet.

Rick Diesel
04-05-2005, 06:08 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Would somebody please put him in the hot tub! He is clearly gay.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? You think Derek Jeter's Taco Hole is full of fudge?

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you seen some of the broads that he broke up with? Jordana Brewster is hawt. So is that broad from MTV. And don't even get me started with Jessica Alba. He is clearly gay.

istewart
04-05-2005, 06:09 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Would somebody please put him in the hot tub! He is clearly gay.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? You think Derek Jeter's Taco Hole is full of fudge?

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you seen some of the broads that he broke up with? Jordana Brewster is hawt. So is that broad from MTV. And don't even get me started with Jessica Alba. He is clearly gay.

[/ QUOTE ]

...

IndieMatty
04-05-2005, 06:20 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's above average.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, he reminds me of Mike Sanders.

[/ QUOTE ] POTD!!!!

IndieMatty
04-05-2005, 06:20 PM
Jeter has a tendency, more then others in similar circumstances to perform better in important situations.

He's clutch.

hoyaboy1
04-05-2005, 06:24 PM
Proof, por favor.

istewart
04-05-2005, 06:26 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Proof, por favor.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here:

http://www.clarion-call.org/yeshua/pudding/pudding.gif

jesusarenque
04-05-2005, 06:26 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Jeter has a tendency, more then others in similar circumstances to perform better in important situations.

He's clutch.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he doesn't. No, he isn't. He is, however, a great player.

nolanfan34
04-05-2005, 06:29 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Jeter has a tendency, more then others in similar circumstances to perform better in important situations.

He's clutch.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he doesn't. No, he isn't. He is, however, a great player.

[/ QUOTE ]

There we go. Everyone should just read this quote and response, because that's what the thread boils down to.

He's a great, player, who has done great things in the playoffs as well. Shocking!

IndieMatty
04-05-2005, 06:29 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Proof, por favor.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that this poll even exists is proof enough. If you would like to get the last ten years and have some watch every playoff game, determine what constitutes a big play, then take all the players who have played games, and compute the avg of big plays per game. (say minimum of 2 big plays?) then would that constitute proof? I doubt that would even satiate the haters. Since clutch is an arbitrary term, like "hot"...it is virtually impossible to prove.

Well, not the hot thing, we all know he's dreamy. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

nolanfan34
04-05-2005, 06:31 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Proof, por favor.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that this poll even exists is proof enough. If you would like to get the last ten years and have some watch every playoff game, determine what constitutes a big play, then take all the players who have played games, and compute the avg of big plays per game. (say minimum of 2 big plays?) then would that constitute proof? I doubt that would even satiate the haters. Since clutch is an arbitrary term, like "hot"...it is virtually impossible to prove.

Well, not the hot thing, we all know he's dreamy. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

If you quantify "big plays" as things like hitting with two outs, and runners on 2nd and 3rd, etc, then yes, people have done that statistical analysis. Baseball Prospectus pretty much ran the numbers a year or two ago, and there are no noticeable trends for a player being measurably "clutch".

DougOzzzz
04-05-2005, 06:35 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Proof, por favor.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that this poll even exists is proof enough. If you would like to get the last ten years and have some watch every playoff game, determine what constitutes a big play, then take all the players who have played games, and compute the avg of big plays per game. (say minimum of 2 big plays?) then would that constitute proof? I doubt that would even satiate the haters. Since clutch is an arbitrary term, like "hot"...it is virtually impossible to prove.

Well, not the hot thing, we all know he's dreamy. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Define a clutch situation. Then take his statistics during those situations and compare them to his statistics during "non-clutch" situations.

IndieMatty
04-05-2005, 06:36 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Jeter has a tendency, more then others in similar circumstances to perform better in important situations.

He's clutch.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he doesn't. No, he isn't. He is, however, a great player.

[/ QUOTE ]


But so is Alex Rodriguez, Soriano and Andruw Jones, and Pedro Martinez and a slew of others, why does the world remember all of Jeters so called clutch plays and not these other great players?

(this is a real question--my whole point is clutch is an opinion/perception impossible to prove, but I can't think of any current pro-athlete who has the big time reputation for doing well in high pressure situations that Jeter has).

hoyaboy1
04-05-2005, 06:36 PM
I'm not a fan of believing things that all exisiting evidence says are false.

Sorry.

DougOzzzz
04-05-2005, 06:37 PM
He's not even a great player. He's a very good hitter who plays his position very poorly.

IndieMatty
04-05-2005, 06:38 PM
Obviously I'm not explaining myself well.

hoyaboy1
04-05-2005, 06:38 PM
A couple of years ago I'd say he hit well enough to be called great. Now he is probably more like good.

But yea, his D sucks. Bad.

Jack of Arcades
04-05-2005, 06:38 PM
It's because he's a media darling. The media knows very little about baseball.

DougOzzzz
04-05-2005, 06:40 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Jeter has a tendency, more then others in similar circumstances to perform better in important situations.

He's clutch.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he doesn't. No, he isn't. He is, however, a great player.

[/ QUOTE ]


But so is Alex Rodriguez, Soriano and Andruw Jones, and Pedro Martinez and a slew of others, why does the world remember all of Jeters so called clutch plays and not these other great players?

(this is a real question--my whole point is clutch is an opinion/perception impossible to prove, but I can't think of any current pro-athlete who has the big time reputation for doing well in high pressure situations that Jeter has).

[/ QUOTE ]

Main reasons - he's been on a great team, he plays shortstop, and people just love him. He's viewed as a leader. People tend to believe what they want to believe.

IndieMatty
04-05-2005, 06:40 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not a fan of believing things that all exisiting evidence says are false.

Sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the condescending tone is necesary? What is the existing evidence? there's no way to define a clutch situation!! It's like proving God doesn't exist. Wait, he does, it's Jeter.

(sarcasm)

nolanfan34
04-05-2005, 06:43 PM
[ QUOTE ]
(this is a real question--my whole point is clutch is an opinion/perception impossible to prove, but I can't think of any current pro-athlete who has the big time reputation for doing well in high pressure situations that Jeter has).

[/ QUOTE ]

I blame Tim McCarver.

hoyaboy1
04-05-2005, 06:44 PM
As far as clutch defense, no, we can't really measure it well it. Clutch offense, we can. You want numbers with runners on third and less than 2 outs, close and late, runners in scoring position, playoffs, whatever, I can tell you.

Pretending something can't be defined or measured is what people do when they have no evidence for their position.

Eurotrash
04-05-2005, 06:44 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Would somebody please put him in the hot tub! He is clearly gay.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'm inclined to agree that Derek Jeter's only clutchness involves clutching penises between his asscheeks, perhaps.

he a good player, though.

DougOzzzz
04-05-2005, 06:45 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not a fan of believing things that all exisiting evidence says are false.

Sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the condescending tone is necesary? What is the existing evidence? there's no way to define a clutch situation!! It's like proving God doesn't exist. Wait, he does, it's Jeter.

(sarcasm)

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you mean there's no way to define a clutch situation? How about when it's late in the game and the tying run is on base? Any at-bat in the playoffs? There are any number of ways to define a clutch situation. And there are databases out there with all the information you need, and people who can write a query in like 30 seconds to get you Jeter's stats in these situations.

jesusarenque
04-05-2005, 06:46 PM
[ QUOTE ]
As far as clutch defense, no, we can't really measure it well it. Clutch offense, we can. You want numbers with runners on third and less than 2 outs, close and late, runners in scoring position, playoffs, whatever, I can tell you.

Pretending something can't be defined or measured is what people do when they have no evidence for their position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeter regular season: .315/.385/.463
Jeter playoffs: .306/.380/.456

There is your evidence. Now, go get your fvcking shinebox.

Jack of Arcades
04-05-2005, 06:47 PM
Like I said before, people quibble over what "clutch" is until it gets down to like 10 PA.

There is such a thing such as, say, a "clutch play," I guess. A walk-off could be considered "clutch."

There's no evidence to indicate that certain players are clutch.

PS: Clutch is a funny word.

hoyaboy1
04-05-2005, 06:49 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As far as clutch defense, no, we can't really measure it well it. Clutch offense, we can. You want numbers with runners on third and less than 2 outs, close and late, runners in scoring position, playoffs, whatever, I can tell you.

Pretending something can't be defined or measured is what people do when they have no evidence for their position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeter regular season: .315/.385/.463
Jeter playoffs: .306/.380/.456

There is your evidence. Now, go get your fvcking shinebox.

[/ QUOTE ]

That response wasn't actually meant for me, was it?

tbach24
04-05-2005, 06:49 PM
[ QUOTE ]
PS: Clutch is a funny word.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't there something in a car referred to as the clutch?

jesusarenque
04-05-2005, 06:55 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As far as clutch defense, no, we can't really measure it well it. Clutch offense, we can. You want numbers with runners on third and less than 2 outs, close and late, runners in scoring position, playoffs, whatever, I can tell you.

Pretending something can't be defined or measured is what people do when they have no evidence for their position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeter regular season: .315/.385/.463
Jeter playoffs: .306/.380/.456

There is your evidence. Now, go get your fvcking shinebox.

[/ QUOTE ]

That response wasn't actually meant for me, was it?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

Soul Daddy
04-05-2005, 07:00 PM
[ QUOTE ]
But so is Alex Rodriguez, Soriano and Andruw Jones, and Pedro Martinez and a slew of others, why does the world remember all of Jeters so called clutch plays and not these other great players?

[/ QUOTE ]
People also like to throw the clutch word around when in comes to Bernie Williams, or at least they did before he began his trek down the hill. It's quite simply that these two have been the best players on the team that has been in so many of these situations over the past decade.

More opportunities = More big/memorable plays = More media ballwashing

ThaSaltCracka
04-05-2005, 07:09 PM
I think most people need to realize that statistically, clutch is impossible. If a player makes a shot or gets a hit in "big time" situations, its most likely because said player gets more hits or makes more shots then other players.

All of you guys arguing that clutch exists are numb nuts who know far less about sports(and stats) then you are willing to believe. Seriously, I had this same discussion with my roomate a few days ago, apparently it was the dumbest thing he had ever heard. I told him to go take a stats class.

Toro
04-05-2005, 07:09 PM
[ QUOTE ]
It is laughable that many Yankee fans think Derek Jeter is a better player than Alex Rodriguez.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it isn't. It's human nature. How many WS have they won with Jeter? How many with Gayrod? Of course they are going to favor him.

ThaSaltCracka
04-05-2005, 07:12 PM
[ QUOTE ]
More opportunities = More big/memorable plays = More media ballwashing

[/ QUOTE ] precisely, "clutch" is a term created by the media to sensationalize players and games. A large part of America has fallen into the trap of listening(and believing) everything they hear from every blowhard dickwad on ESPN, FOX, ABC, etc...

mostsmooth
04-05-2005, 07:15 PM
[ QUOTE ]
It is laughable that many Yankee fans think Derek Jeter is a better player than Alex Rodriguez.

[/ QUOTE ]
if jeter was up in the playoffs last year with the runner on third and 1 out instead of arod, the yankees go to the world series.
(just wanted to throw some gas on the fire)

jesusarenque
04-05-2005, 07:17 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It is laughable that many Yankee fans think Derek Jeter is a better player than Alex Rodriguez.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it isn't. It's human nature. How many WS have they won with Jeter? How many with Gayrod? Of course they are going to favor him.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a difference between "favoring" a player and acknowledging that he is better than another. One of my favorite Dodgers of all time is Kik Gibson, but you will never hear me argue that he is one of the best.

ThaSaltCracka
04-05-2005, 07:17 PM
I would like to add that it is possible to choke(via internal stress) but clutch does not exist. Therefor, I would take Jeter as well simply because FagRod is prone to choke.

mostsmooth
04-05-2005, 07:20 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
best defensive play in a playoff game EVER with that cut off play down the 1st base line against oakland a few years ago. Anyone who doesn't think Jeter is a clutch player is either a Yankee hater or an idiot. case closed

[/ QUOTE ]

Was that the one where he was so far out of position you were just wondering, "How the hell did he get there?" If that's the one I remember, it was pretty freaking amazing. I was in awe (and I really dislike Jeter and the Yankees).

[/ QUOTE ]
it wasnt really that amazing, he was backing up the play and had no other responsibilities. he should have been in that area.
sometimes youll see catchers run down the line on groundouts to backup a bad throw. doesnt make them heros if theres a bad throw, its what they should be doing.

jesusarenque
04-05-2005, 07:20 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It is laughable that many Yankee fans think Derek Jeter is a better player than Alex Rodriguez.

[/ QUOTE ]
if jeter was up in the playoffs last year with the runner on third and 1 out instead of arod, the yankees go to the world series.
(just wanted to throw some gas on the fire)

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeter in last years ALCS v Boston: .200/.333/.233
AROD in last years ALCS v Boston: .258/.378/.516

Jeter was terrible. Arod was good.

tbach24
04-05-2005, 07:21 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I would like to add that it is possible to choke(via internal stress) but clutch does not exist. Therefore, I would take Jeter as well simply because FagRod is prone to choke on Jeter.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

ThaSaltCracka
04-05-2005, 07:22 PM
I am fine with that. I am a Yankees fan and I hate PayRod, the biotch.

tbach24
04-05-2005, 07:22 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It is laughable that many Yankee fans think Derek Jeter is a better player than Alex Rodriguez.

[/ QUOTE ]
if jeter was up in the playoffs last year with the runner on third and 1 out instead of arod, the yankees go to the world series.
(just wanted to throw some gas on the fire)

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeter in last years ALCS v Boston: .200/.333/.233
AROD in last years ALCS v Boston: .258/.378/.516

Jeter was terrible. Arod was good.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are the numbers referring to?

ThaSaltCracka
04-05-2005, 07:23 PM
BA, OBP, SLG

mostsmooth
04-05-2005, 07:24 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It is laughable that many Yankee fans think Derek Jeter is a better player than Alex Rodriguez.

[/ QUOTE ]
if jeter was up in the playoffs last year with the runner on third and 1 out instead of arod, the yankees go to the world series.
(just wanted to throw some gas on the fire)

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeter in last years ALCS v Boston: .200/.333/.233
AROD in last years ALCS v Boston: .258/.378/.516

Jeter was terrible. Arod was good.

[/ QUOTE ]
thats not the point. jeter gets the run in!!

tbach24
04-05-2005, 07:24 PM
[ QUOTE ]
BA, OBP, SLG

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Jeter in last years ALCS v Boston: .200/.333/.233

[/ QUOTE ]

Then how are those numbers possible? I thought that slugging was total bases per at bat and OBP was hits + walks per AB.

DougOzzzz
04-05-2005, 07:24 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It is laughable that many Yankee fans think Derek Jeter is a better player than Alex Rodriguez.

[/ QUOTE ]
if jeter was up in the playoffs last year with the runner on third and 1 out instead of arod, the yankees go to the world series.
(just wanted to throw some gas on the fire)

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeter in last years ALCS v Boston: .200/.333/.233
AROD in last years ALCS v Boston: .258/.378/.516

Jeter was terrible. Arod was good.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are the numbers referring to?

[/ QUOTE ]

Avg/OBP/SLG

In 10 years we'll see this when they show a players stats on ESPN rather than Avg/HR/RBI.

ThaSaltCracka
04-05-2005, 07:25 PM
I don't think walks count as TB in SLG.

DougOzzzz
04-05-2005, 07:26 PM
OBP is hits+walks/AB + walks. SLG is TB/AB.

Since the denominator is higher in OBP, higher OBPs do exist, though they are relatively uncommon.

ThaSaltCracka
04-05-2005, 07:26 PM
[ QUOTE ]

In 10 years we'll see this when they show a players stats on ESPN rather than Avg/HR/RBI.

[/ QUOTE ] doubtful, more like BA, OPS, HR, RBI

jesusarenque
04-05-2005, 07:37 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It is laughable that many Yankee fans think Derek Jeter is a better player than Alex Rodriguez.

[/ QUOTE ]
if jeter was up in the playoffs last year with the runner on third and 1 out instead of arod, the yankees go to the world series.
(just wanted to throw some gas on the fire)

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeter in last years ALCS v Boston: .200/.333/.233
AROD in last years ALCS v Boston: .258/.378/.516

Jeter was terrible. Arod was good.

[/ QUOTE ]
thats not the point. jeter gets the run in!!

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is, Jeter had many opportunities to "get the run in," but he didn't.

mostsmooth
04-05-2005, 07:39 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It is laughable that many Yankee fans think Derek Jeter is a better player than Alex Rodriguez.

[/ QUOTE ]
if jeter was up in the playoffs last year with the runner on third and 1 out instead of arod, the yankees go to the world series.
(just wanted to throw some gas on the fire)

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeter in last years ALCS v Boston: .200/.333/.233
AROD in last years ALCS v Boston: .258/.378/.516

Jeter was terrible. Arod was good.

[/ QUOTE ]
thats not the point. jeter gets the run in!!

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is, Jeter had many opportunities to "get the run in," but he didn't.

[/ QUOTE ]
i dont recall these opportunities, was the game on the line(extras), or was it in the middle innings?

MLerra
04-05-2005, 07:46 PM
It's pretty clear here who ascribes to the statistical approach of measuring clutch, and who ascribes to the subjective approach. For those of you who like the subjective approach, go listen to Joe Morgan or Tim McCarver talk. I'm sure you'll appreciate Jeter's "calm eyes", and you'll believe that Billy Beane was full of crap when he wrote Moneyball. Ignore this next paragraph, you either won't understand it or won't care to hear it.

For the stat's guys who don't measure skill based on two plays... FYI, I believe the clutch study actually found two players to be significantly clutch: Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada. Of course, given the sample size, two players being found to be beyond 2 SD (or even 3 SD) from their normal mean/variance is certainly expected and probably represents the false positive effect (ie if we're 99% certain that out of 200 players, only two are clutch... we'd expect to have a false positive 1% of the time, by definition... which would give us 2 false positives).

Congrats to Jeter on hitting the home run in the 9th. Does this mean Varitek is clutch too? I always knew he had calm eyes. He's "a winner" just like Jeter... right? And, for the guy who said Jeter is no longer a great player... you're right. FYI... Mark Bellhorn had a very similar OPS to Jeter last year. Now call me crazy... but I wouldn't call Bellhorn "great" any time soon.

ThaSaltCracka
04-05-2005, 07:49 PM
[ QUOTE ]
For the stat's guys who don't measure skill based on two plays... FYI, I believe the clutch study actually found two players to be significantly clutch: Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada. Of course, given the sample size, two players being found to be beyond 2 SD (or even 3 SD) from their normal mean/variance is certainly expected and probably represents the false positive effect (ie if we're 99% certain that out of 200 players, only two are clutch... we'd expect to have a false positive 1% of the time, by definition... which would give us 2 false positives).

[/ QUOTE ] bing! Perhaps you can break this down for some of the other posters.

Soul Daddy
04-05-2005, 07:51 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Mark Bellhorn had a very similar OPS to Jeter last year. Now call me crazy... but I wouldn't call Bellhorn "great" any time soon.

[/ QUOTE ]
Maybe not, but by the Jeter standard, he's certainly clutch. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

DougOzzzz
04-05-2005, 07:56 PM
[ QUOTE ]
It's pretty clear here who ascribes to the statistical approach of measuring clutch, and who ascribes to the subjective approach. For those of you who like the subjective approach, go listen to Joe Morgan or Tim McCarver talk. I'm sure you'll appreciate Jeter's "calm eyes", and you'll believe that Billy Beane was full of crap when he wrote Moneyball. Ignore this next paragraph, you either won't understand it or won't care to hear it.

For the stat's guys who don't measure skill based on two plays... FYI, I believe the clutch study actually found two players to be significantly clutch: Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada. Of course, given the sample size, two players being found to be beyond 2 SD (or even 3 SD) from their normal mean/variance is certainly expected and probably represents the false positive effect (ie if we're 99% certain that out of 200 players, only two are clutch... we'd expect to have a false positive 1% of the time, by definition... which would give us 2 false positives).

Congrats to Jeter on hitting the home run in the 9th. Does this mean Varitek is clutch too? I always knew he had calm eyes. He's "a winner" just like Jeter... right? And, for the guy who said Jeter is no longer a great player... you're right. FYI... Mark Bellhorn had a very similar OPS to Jeter last year. Now call me crazy... but I wouldn't call Bellhorn "great" any time soon.

[/ QUOTE ]

Giambi and Tejada both came up through the A's organization. I'd say that proves that Billy Beane puts a high value on a player's clutch ability.

You can't compare Mark Bellhorn with Derek Jeter. One is God, the other just strikes out alot.

jesusarenque
04-05-2005, 07:56 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It is laughable that many Yankee fans think Derek Jeter is a better player than Alex Rodriguez.

[/ QUOTE ]
if jeter was up in the playoffs last year with the runner on third and 1 out instead of arod, the yankees go to the world series.
(just wanted to throw some gas on the fire)

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeter in last years ALCS v Boston: .200/.333/.233
AROD in last years ALCS v Boston: .258/.378/.516

Jeter was terrible. Arod was good.

[/ QUOTE ]
thats not the point. jeter gets the run in!!

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is, Jeter had many opportunities to "get the run in," but he didn't.

[/ QUOTE ]
i dont recall these opportunities, was the game on the line(extras), or was it in the middle innings?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, he flied out in the 12th inning and then came up and grounded out in the 14th inning of Game 5. That isn't very clutch, is it?

ThaSaltCracka
04-05-2005, 07:59 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I'd say that proves that Billy Beane puts a high value on a player's clutch ability.

[/ QUOTE ] you don't really believe this, do you? Did you even read his post?

Soul Daddy
04-05-2005, 08:00 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd say that proves that Billy Beane puts a high value on a player's clutch ability.

[/ QUOTE ] you don't really believe this, do you? Did you even read his post?

[/ QUOTE ]
Judging by his previous posts, I'd say this was tongue in cheek.

mostsmooth
04-05-2005, 08:05 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It is laughable that many Yankee fans think Derek Jeter is a better player than Alex Rodriguez.

[/ QUOTE ]
if jeter was up in the playoffs last year with the runner on third and 1 out instead of arod, the yankees go to the world series.
(just wanted to throw some gas on the fire)

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeter in last years ALCS v Boston: .200/.333/.233
AROD in last years ALCS v Boston: .258/.378/.516

Jeter was terrible. Arod was good.

[/ QUOTE ]
thats not the point. jeter gets the run in!!

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is, Jeter had many opportunities to "get the run in," but he didn't.

[/ QUOTE ]
i dont recall these opportunities, was the game on the line(extras), or was it in the middle innings?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, he flied out in the 12th inning and then came up and grounded out in the 14th inning of Game 5. That isn't very clutch, is it?

[/ QUOTE ]
well if he flew out with a runner on 3rd and 1 out, he would have brought the run in no?
im not saying hes gonna hit a hr everytime up, but if hes up with a runner on 3rd less than 2 outs, i like my chances with him.

Perseus
04-05-2005, 08:05 PM
[ QUOTE ]
best defensive play in a playoff game EVER with that cut off play down the 1st base line against oakland a few years ago. Anyone who doesn't think Jeter is a clutch player is either a Yankee hater or an idiot. case closed

[/ QUOTE ]

or both

ThaSaltCracka
04-05-2005, 08:06 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd say that proves that Billy Beane puts a high value on a player's clutch ability.

[/ QUOTE ] you don't really believe this, do you? Did you even read his post?

[/ QUOTE ]
Judging by his previous posts, I'd say this was tongue in cheek.

[/ QUOTE ]lets hope so.

Really, this whole clutcj debate is so frustrating. Most people like to think their favorite player has "superpowers" which make him better than every other player when "it counts", but really they are just good, and doing well in big games sticks out more.

Soul Daddy
04-05-2005, 08:12 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Really, this whole clutch debate is so frustrating.

[/ QUOTE ]
I just find it surprising that so many poker players are simply rejecting such overwhelming mathematical evidence.

thatpfunk
04-05-2005, 08:12 PM
[ QUOTE ]
It's nothing against Jeter. He's a fantastic player. It's simply that over time, with a large enough sample size, players' post season performance will largely mirror their regular season performance.

[/ QUOTE ]

You havn't actually ever played a sport, have you?

ThaSaltCracka
04-05-2005, 08:13 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Really, this whole clutch debate is so frustrating.

[/ QUOTE ]
I just find it surprising that so many poker players are simply rejecting such overwhelming mathematical evidence.

[/ QUOTE ]most of them are idiots.

Soul Daddy
04-05-2005, 08:19 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's nothing against Jeter. He's a fantastic player. It's simply that over time, with a large enough sample size, players' post season performance will largely mirror their regular season performance.

[/ QUOTE ]

You havn't actually ever played a sport, have you?

[/ QUOTE ]
I've played sports all my life, though I'm not sure what that has to do with my statement.

Are you some big time jock that's going to throw his anecdotal evidence as proof? Look it up. Read the rest of the thread. There's actually data out there.

IndieMatty
04-05-2005, 08:40 PM
[ QUOTE ]
As far as clutch defense, no, we can't really measure it well it. Clutch offense, we can. You want numbers with runners on third and less than 2 outs, close and late, runners in scoring position, playoffs, whatever, I can tell you.

Pretending something can't be defined or measured is what people do when they have no evidence for their position.

[/ QUOTE ]

My position is: That I think clutch is subjective and I think those who believe it is are not wrong saying Jeter is clutch. There is no evidence to support this. At no point did I argue that there is. I can give you a million different potential "clutch" situations. There is no way to limit these situations. That's all I am saying. And as I said before, your tone in responding to me like I am some ardent "Jeter is the best player" Yankee douche is just silly. I'm just trying to find middle ground. Since you are Mr. Evidence, please don't respond to me until you find an exact way to compute clutch.

On a side note this is as argumentitive as I get on an Internet forum.

Peace,
M

daryn
04-05-2005, 08:45 PM
man, saltcracka is so dead on in this thread.

ThaSaltCracka
04-05-2005, 08:48 PM
[ QUOTE ]
man, saltcracka is so dead on in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]
<dat> /images/graemlins/cool.gif

MLerra
04-06-2005, 12:21 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As far as clutch defense, no, we can't really measure it well it. Clutch offense, we can. You want numbers with runners on third and less than 2 outs, close and late, runners in scoring position, playoffs, whatever, I can tell you.

Pretending something can't be defined or measured is what people do when they have no evidence for their position.

[/ QUOTE ]

My position is: That I think clutch is subjective and I think those who believe it is are not wrong saying Jeter is clutch. There is no evidence to support this. At no point did I argue that there is. I can give you a million different potential "clutch" situations. There is no way to limit these situations. That's all I am saying. And as I said before, your tone in responding to me like I am some ardent "Jeter is the best player" Yankee douche is just silly. I'm just trying to find middle ground. Since you are Mr. Evidence, please don't respond to me until you find an exact way to compute clutch.

On a side note this is as argumentitive as I get on an Internet forum.

Peace,
M

[/ QUOTE ]

Um... sure there is a way to limit these situations. He showed you a number of ways to compute clutch; take your pick. With runners in scoring position... with runners in scoring position and two outs... any postseason AB. And, for all of these, we've told you that Jeter is no better than he is in "non-clutch" situations; and is often times WORSE than he would be in a non-clutch situation. And in return, others have postulated that their idea of clutch is "who can make the most memorable play in the postseason for the Yankees". By that definition, Jeter is definitely clutch. Awesome. Maybe some jackass here can come in and say that his definition of clutch is hitting a home run off the foul pole in the postseason. Well, does this make Bellhorn clutch? Does that seem reasonable? Does that bear any more than an inkling of his overall performance? The answer is no. It means next to nothing.

Ooh, I've got it. Dave Roberts is the most clutch player in the history of baseball. No team has gone more than 86 years between championship wins (yet). And Roberts' steal made that win happen. So let's see... he was put in the game one time, to steal one base, and he did it with 100% effectiveness in the playoffs when it mattered most. CLUTCH, BABY. Dave Roberts is the most clutch player ever... his steal % was only 93% or so during the season, clearly 100% was better than that. And that was sure as hell a memorable play - for some reason, fans and media around here act as though that was the turning point of the entire series. He owned Rivera that entire at-bat. So he makes a clutch play EVERY TIME HE WAS GIVEN AN OPPORTUNITY TO, and it is the turning point in helping a franchise win a title which it had not done for 86 years. Now THAT, both by the numbers, and by a dumbass subjective approach, is clutch.

So you can say Jeter is clutch all you want. But you admit sometimes he K's or grounds out with the game on the line. Well, Roberts has never failed the Red Sox with the game on the line. Therefore he is more clutch than Jeter. Case closed.

Jack of Arcades
04-06-2005, 01:43 AM
You've never been considered one of the top 750 players in a sport, have you?

These aren't like you and me. Sure, they let things affect them but it's silly to believe that the top players in the game somehow shrivel up and die when the game's on the line.

In fact, I'd say that the most likely scenario is that all of the major league players are "clutch" in that the situation doesn't affect them.

JaBlue
04-06-2005, 01:49 AM
For those that are saying that clutch/choke is indeterminable, you're just completely wrong.


easiest way is to compare a player's stats during the regular season and the post season. While its possible to say that this won't have merit with only one season of comparison, if you take a career with as many postseason games as jeter's, you will clearly be able to tell whether or not they are clutch, a choker, or neither.

Jack of Arcades
04-06-2005, 01:53 AM
No, we're still only talking about less than one season's worth of PA! This is not a signficant sample size at all.

EDIT: It's statistically significant, sure, but we can't draw too many conclusions from it.

JaBlue
04-06-2005, 01:57 AM
It's plenty if there's a big disparity. For instance, I would ignore BA if it were, say, only 10 points difference.

IndieMatty
04-06-2005, 02:15 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As far as clutch defense, no, we can't really measure it well it. Clutch offense, we can. You want numbers with runners on third and less than 2 outs, close and late, runners in scoring position, playoffs, whatever, I can tell you.

Pretending something can't be defined or measured is what people do when they have no evidence for their position.

[/ QUOTE ]

My position is: That I think clutch is subjective and I think those who believe it is are not wrong saying Jeter is clutch. There is no evidence to support this. At no point did I argue that there is. I can give you a million different potential "clutch" situations. There is no way to limit these situations. That's all I am saying. And as I said before, your tone in responding to me like I am some ardent "Jeter is the best player" Yankee douche is just silly. I'm just trying to find middle ground. Since you are Mr. Evidence, please don't respond to me until you find an exact way to compute clutch.

On a side note this is as argumentitive as I get on an Internet forum.

Peace,
M

[/ QUOTE ]

Um... sure there is a way to limit these situations. He showed you a number of ways to compute clutch; take your pick. With runners in scoring position... with runners in scoring position and two outs... any postseason AB. And, for all of these, we've told you that Jeter is no better than he is in "non-clutch" situations; and is often times WORSE than he would be in a non-clutch situation. And in return, others have postulated that their idea of clutch is "who can make the most memorable play in the postseason for the Yankees". By that definition, Jeter is definitely clutch. Awesome. Maybe some jackass here can come in and say that his definition of clutch is hitting a home run off the foul pole in the postseason. Well, does this make Bellhorn clutch? Does that seem reasonable? Does that bear any more than an inkling of his overall performance? The answer is no. It means next to nothing.

Ooh, I've got it. Dave Roberts is the most clutch player in the history of baseball. No team has gone more than 86 years between championship wins (yet). And Roberts' steal made that win happen. So let's see... he was put in the game one time, to steal one base, and he did it with 100% effectiveness in the playoffs when it mattered most. CLUTCH, BABY. Dave Roberts is the most clutch player ever... his steal % was only 93% or so during the season, clearly 100% was better than that. And that was sure as hell a memorable play - for some reason, fans and media around here act as though that was the turning point of the entire series. He owned Rivera that entire at-bat. So he makes a clutch play EVERY TIME HE WAS GIVEN AN OPPORTUNITY TO, and it is the turning point in helping a franchise win a title which it had not done for 86 years. Now THAT, both by the numbers, and by a dumbass subjective approach, is clutch.

So you can say Jeter is clutch all you want. But you admit sometimes he K's or grounds out with the game on the line. Well, Roberts has never failed the Red Sox with the game on the line. Therefore he is more clutch than Jeter. Case closed.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'm pretty drunk, but I understand what you are saying, but since there are a number of ways to possibly define clutch, doesn't that make it a subjective definition? also please compute "amazing defensive plays" Jeter has two off the top of my head, into any statistical analysis determining clutch and I'll give you a nickel. Or are all you guys going to tell me that there is an exact definition of an amazing baseball play?

IndieMatty
04-06-2005, 02:27 AM
If I were to try to attempt to define clutch, I would Clutch is more then just batting, and more then just regular vs postseason. The dive into the stands was a clutch play.

Please use batting stats to disprove that statement.

shemp
04-06-2005, 02:32 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Spouting absolutes just makes you look like an ass.

[/ QUOTE ]

Always?

jesusarenque
04-06-2005, 02:33 AM
[ QUOTE ]
If I were to try to attempt to define clutch, I would Clutch is more then just batting, and more then just regular vs postseason. The dive into the stands was a clutch play.

Please use batting stats to disprove that statement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clutch plays exist. Clutch players do not.

IndieMatty
04-06-2005, 02:35 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If I were to try to attempt to define clutch, I would Clutch is more then just batting, and more then just regular vs postseason. The dive into the stands was a clutch play.

Please use batting stats to disprove that statement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clutch plays exist. Clutch players do not.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if a player had more clutch plays then another given equal opportunity?

jesusarenque
04-06-2005, 02:36 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If I were to try to attempt to define clutch, I would Clutch is more then just batting, and more then just regular vs postseason. The dive into the stands was a clutch play.

Please use batting stats to disprove that statement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clutch plays exist. Clutch players do not.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if a player had more clutch plays then another given equal opportunity?

[/ QUOTE ]

That is the point. Studies have been done. And there is zero proof that one player continuously make "clutch" plays. Over the long haul, players perform the same in clutch situations as they do in non-clutch ones.

IndieMatty
04-06-2005, 02:40 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If I were to try to attempt to define clutch, I would Clutch is more then just batting, and more then just regular vs postseason. The dive into the stands was a clutch play.

Please use batting stats to disprove that statement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clutch plays exist. Clutch players do not.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if a player had more clutch plays then another given equal opportunity?

[/ QUOTE ]

That is the point. Studies have been done. And there is zero proof that one player continuously make "clutch" plays. Over the long haul, players perform the same in clutch situations as they do in non-clutch ones.

[/ QUOTE ]


But my contention is that i\this is impossible to compute..but I'll leave that to try to explain at work tomorrow. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

jesusarenque
04-06-2005, 02:42 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If I were to try to attempt to define clutch, I would Clutch is more then just batting, and more then just regular vs postseason. The dive into the stands was a clutch play.

Please use batting stats to disprove that statement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clutch plays exist. Clutch players do not.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if a player had more clutch plays then another given equal opportunity?

[/ QUOTE ]

That is the point. Studies have been done. And there is zero proof that one player continuously make "clutch" plays. Over the long haul, players perform the same in clutch situations as they do in non-clutch ones.

[/ QUOTE ]


But my contention is that i\this is impossible to compute..but I'll leave that to try to explain at work tomorrow. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

What is it that is hard to compute?

IndieMatty
04-06-2005, 02:54 AM
Tell me how you would compute Jeters dive into the stands play against the sox?

jesusarenque
04-06-2005, 02:56 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Tell me how you would compute Jeters dive into the stands play against the sox?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tell me how you compute all the ground balls that go right past him for a hit that most other shortstops would turn into outs. Jeter's defense sucks.

IndieMatty
04-06-2005, 02:58 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tell me how you would compute Jeters dive into the stands play against the sox?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tell me how you compute all the ground balls that go right past him for a hit that most other shortstops would turn into outs. Jeter's defense sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]


Answer my question, I'm not the one who's saying there is way to compute these instances. (well fielding percentage of course)

jesusarenque
04-06-2005, 03:01 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tell me how you would compute Jeters dive into the stands play against the sox?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tell me how you compute all the ground balls that go right past him for a hit that most other shortstops would turn into outs. Jeter's defense sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]


Answer my question, I'm not the one who's saying there is way to compute these instances. (well fielding percentage of course)

[/ QUOTE ]

You look at Jeter's stats during non-clutch situations. You look at Jeter's stats during clutch situations. You compare. You see they are the same. You conclude that Jeter is not clutch.

IndieMatty
04-06-2005, 03:05 AM
I have to go to bed, but where is the stat for diving, near impossible plays in the biggest game of the regular season? Im missing the point I guess?

jesusarenque
04-06-2005, 03:06 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I have to go to bed, but where is the stat for diving, near impossible plays in the biggest game of the regular season? Im missing the point I guess?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you are. In several ways.

Jack of Arcades
04-06-2005, 03:07 AM
I dunno, are you saying he wouldn't do that against the D-Rays in July?

jason_t
04-06-2005, 03:12 AM
For what it's what worth, sabermatrician Bill James and long time opponent to the idea of there being such a thing as a "clutch" player has recently (cf. BRJ #33) admitted that there MIGHT be such a thing as a clutch player. He has not acknowledged the existence of such a notion but has only stated he doesn't believe there is proof that "clutch" doesn't exist as some have tried to argue.

Edit: Sorry that I am coming in on this conversation late.

jason_t
04-06-2005, 03:13 AM
[ QUOTE ]
You look at Jeter's stats during non-clutch situations. You look at Jeter's stats during clutch situations. You compare. You see they are the same. You conclude that Jeter is not clutch.

[/ QUOTE ]

Define clutch.

jesusarenque
04-06-2005, 03:14 AM
[ QUOTE ]
For what it's what worth, sabermatrician Bill James and long time opponent to the idea of there being such a thing as a "clutch" player has recently (cf. BRJ #33) admitted that there MIGHT be such a thing as a clutch player. He has not acknowledged the existence of such a notion but has only stated he doesn't believe there is proof that "clutch" doesn't exist as some have tried to argue.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no proof that clutch players don't exist. There is a lot of evidence to suggest that they don't. There is no evidence to suggest that clutch players do exist.

Jack of Arcades
04-06-2005, 03:15 AM
See! We're back at it. Clutch is indeterminable because no one knows what the hell it is. Well, except:

[ QUOTE ]
largely a fallacy, arbitrary, and indeterminable.

[/ QUOTE ]

jesusarenque
04-06-2005, 03:16 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You look at Jeter's stats during non-clutch situations. You look at Jeter's stats during clutch situations. You compare. You see they are the same. You conclude that Jeter is not clutch.

[/ QUOTE ]

Define clutch.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you could define it several ways. Coming to the plate after the seventh inning with RISP in a 3-run game would be one. Studies have been done with various definitions of clutch, and in none of them has eny evidence surfaced that clutch players exist.

jesusarenque
04-06-2005, 03:17 AM
[ QUOTE ]
See! We're back at it. Clutch is indeterminable because no one knows what the hell it is. Well, except:

[ QUOTE ]
largely a fallacy, arbitrary, and indeterminable.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

If clutch can't possibly be defined/identified, then Jeter can't be clutch, can he?

Jack of Arcades
04-06-2005, 03:22 AM
The discussion itself is worthless, that's all I'm saying.

jesusarenque
04-06-2005, 03:24 AM
[ QUOTE ]
The discussion itself is worthless, that's all I'm saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

Liar. You will say more about this.

Jack of Arcades
04-06-2005, 03:28 AM
Oh, what I meant to say was that my original statement only meant that the discussion will prove nothing. Which it has.

jason_t
04-06-2005, 03:35 AM
[ QUOTE ]

Well, you could define it several ways. Coming to the plate after the seventh inning with RISP in a 3-run game would be one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is clutch possible on opening day? Is a 2-out run scoring hit clutch in the first inning if your pitcher is statisically significantly better with an early lead? What about an eighth inning defensive play that keeps what would have been the game tying run from reaching base given that the next batter homers?

[ QUOTE ]
Studies have been done with various definitions of clutch, and in none of them has eny evidence surfaced that clutch players exist.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true, and James admits this point. James' point is merely that there is not yet a definitive argument that it does not exist. As I understand his side, he still believes (correctly, in my opinion) that it does not exist.

jesusarenque
04-06-2005, 03:56 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Well, you could define it several ways. Coming to the plate after the seventh inning with RISP in a 3-run game would be one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is clutch possible on opening day? Is a 2-out run scoring hit clutch in the first inning if your pitcher is statisically significantly better with an early lead? What about an eighth inning defensive play that keeps what would have been the game tying run from reaching base given that the next batter homers?

[ QUOTE ]
Studies have been done with various definitions of clutch, and in none of them has eny evidence surfaced that clutch players exist.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true, and James admits this point. James' point is merely that there is not yet a definitive argument that it does not exist. As I understand his side, he still believes (correctly, in my opinion) that it does not exist.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can say all of those situations are clutch. And I will say players perform the same in those situations as they do in all others. Define clutch any way you want, but with a large enough sample size, there is no difference between a player's performance in "clutch" and "non-clutch" situations.

jason_t
04-06-2005, 04:11 AM
[ QUOTE ]
You can say all of those situations are clutch. And I will say players perform the same in those situations as they do in all others. Define clutch any way you want, but with a large enough sample size, there is no difference between a player's performance in "clutch" and "non-clutch" situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't disagree with that. We seem to be on the same side with any difference (if any) in the details. I haven't gone back in read this monstrously long thread.

Bulldog
04-06-2005, 09:06 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Clutch is largely a fallacy, arbitrary, and indeterminable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Evan
04-06-2005, 09:12 AM
[ QUOTE ]
a very easy yes

[/ QUOTE ]
I knew there was a reason I liked you more than most Boston fans.

Bulldog
04-06-2005, 09:24 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tell me how you would compute Jeters dive into the stands play against the sox?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tell me how you compute all the ground balls that go right past him for a hit that most other shortstops would turn into outs. Jeter's defense sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]


Answer my question, I'm not the one who's saying there is way to compute these instances. (well fielding percentage of course)

[/ QUOTE ]

FIELDING PERCENTAGE? Probably the second most useless stat (points off turnovers in basketball??) there is. Try Range Factor.

Seriously, how did you ever find this website and why do you stay? (Not an insult, a serious question...your philosophy seems to be very at-odds.)

Shajen
04-06-2005, 09:29 AM
An example of someone who stepped up his game come post season time:

Mark Lemke.

The guy was absolutely on another level when the 91 World Series rolled around. Check these stats:

91 season:


BA: .234 OBP: .305 SLG: .312

91 World Series:

BA: .417 OBP: .462 SLG: .708


Sample size is small, but he immediately came to mind when I thought of players who performed on another level for a period of time. He also kicked mucho ass in the 96 NLCS...

Carlos Beltran comes to mind too. Another guy who performed at the peak of his game during crunch time.

lu_hawk
04-06-2005, 09:51 AM
As a Yankee fan who has seen all his 'clutch' plays I will say when I think of Jeter being clutch I think of his plays in the field, not his batting. You can talk about his defensive statistics not being as good as other shortstops, and I can't argue that, but he has made some very big plays in very big spots that other players simply wouldn't have made.

WRT to batting I agree with everyone else saying that the statistics show that NO player is clutch. But there isn't a stat for 'willingness to hit your face on concrete in order to save runs' or 'foresight to go completely out of position in order to make a back handed flip to home plate and save a run'. But those are the kind of stats where he would excel.

mostsmooth
04-06-2005, 09:54 AM
[ QUOTE ]
foresight to go completely out of position in order to make a back handed flip to home plate and save a run'.

[/ QUOTE ]
where was he supposed to be on this play?

Soul Daddy
04-06-2005, 09:59 AM
[ QUOTE ]
As a Yankee fan who has seen all his 'clutch' plays I will say when I think of Jeter being clutch I think of his plays in the field, not his batting. You can talk about his defensive statistics not being as good as other shortstops, and I can't argue that, but he has made some very big plays in very big spots that other players simply wouldn't have made.

WRT to batting I agree with everyone else saying that the statistics show that NO player is clutch. But there isn't a stat for 'willingness to hit your face on concrete in order to save runs' or 'foresight to go completely out of position in order to make a back handed flip to home plate and save a run'. But those are the kind of stats where he would excel.

[/ QUOTE ]
Look, it's a bird! It's a plane! It's Captain Intangibles!

IndieMatty
04-06-2005, 10:05 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tell me how you would compute Jeters dive into the stands play against the sox?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tell me how you compute all the ground balls that go right past him for a hit that most other shortstops would turn into outs. Jeter's defense sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]


Answer my question, I'm not the one who's saying there is way to compute these instances. (well fielding percentage of course)

[/ QUOTE ]

FIELDING PERCENTAGE? Probably the second most useless stat (points off turnovers in basketball??) there is. Try Range Factor.

Seriously, how did you ever find this website and why do you stay? (Not an insult, a serious question...your philosophy seems to be very at-odds.)

[/ QUOTE ]


I found it through being a poker player? If you could summarize my philosophy that would be great. As I just mentioned Fielding Percentage to cover my ass when I said there was no fielding stat.


I did laugh in the paper today when they quoted Tino Martinez saying DJ is the most clutch player he has ever seen.

Oh yeah, my stance is that its impossible to come up with a standard definition of clutch because it spans too many situations and different types of stats to make a valid stat. (Try mixing fielding and batting into one stat)

Thats IT! Using the stats you guys want to, to try to define clutch, then yes it is quite obvious statistically DJ would not fit your definition of clutch.

HesseJam
04-06-2005, 10:05 AM
[ QUOTE ]
best defensive play in a playoff game EVER with that cut off play down the 1st base line against oakland a few years ago. Anyone who doesn't think Jeter is a clutch player is either a Yankee hater or an idiot. case closed

[/ QUOTE ]
His bad positioning induced this spectacular play. He should have never had to make that play in first place.

HesseJam
04-06-2005, 10:13 AM
[ QUOTE ]
That is correct. He ran to the first baseline all the way from short, and flipped the ball to Posada for the out at home plate.

[/ QUOTE ]

He should have been there anyway. The SS needs to cover the RF on the throw between home and 1B and the LF or CF needs to cover the 2B on that play. He was just coming in waaayy too late and saved his ass with that play.

istewart
04-06-2005, 11:06 AM
I have just declared this point moot and the thread dead.

NHs go out to:

jason_t
TSC
JackofArcades
jesusarenque
BDids
tbach (meh, Sox fan)

Voltron87
04-06-2005, 11:19 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
best defensive play in a playoff game EVER with that cut off play down the 1st base line against oakland a few years ago. Anyone who doesn't think Jeter is a clutch player is either a Yankee hater or an idiot. case closed

[/ QUOTE ]
His bad positioning induced this spectacular play. He should have never had to make that play in first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone who doesn't think that play was awesome is hater. People can think that clutch is not real, that Jeter is not as amazing as Yankee fans think, that's fine. That's usually a different point of view that I disagree with. But to deny that the flip is an azmaing play, to say "Oh he was in the wrong position boring" you have to be a hater.


Oh yeah I'm not posting this to HesseJam in particular, I just read 50 new replies and I'm just posting this is one of the last ones.

Jack of Arcades
04-06-2005, 12:22 PM
[ QUOTE ]
FIELDING PERCENTAGE? Probably the second most useless stat (points off turnovers in basketball??) there is. Try Range Factor.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

Someone condeming a useless statistic and then championing range factor? Ahahahahahahahahahahaha.

Bulldog
04-06-2005, 02:05 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FIELDING PERCENTAGE? Probably the second most useless stat (points off turnovers in basketball??) there is. Try Range Factor.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

Someone condeming a useless statistic and then championing range factor? Ahahahahahahahahahahaha.

[/ QUOTE ]

Range Factor is THE starting point for all good fielding stats. It goes back to Bill James in the 70s I believe. At www.baseball-reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com) you'll see the improved variants RFg and RF9 compared to the league ratings.

Jack of Arcades
04-06-2005, 02:12 PM
Range Factor is pretty useless, the only defensive metrics worth anything use PBP and ZR, like MGL's UZR and David Pinto's metric.

tbach24
04-06-2005, 02:24 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I have just declared this point moot and the thread dead.

NHs go out to:

jason_t
TSC
JackofArcades
jesusarenque
BDids
tbach (meh, Sox fan)

[/ QUOTE ]

WOOOOOOOOOOOOO. But seriously, to be in the same grouping as these people who are so much smarter than me is cool.

jedi
04-06-2005, 02:52 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this spectacular play. He should have never had to make that play in first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone who doesn't think that play was awesome is hater. People can think that clutch is not real, that Jeter is not as amazing as Yankee fans think, that's fine. That's usually a different point of view that I disagree with. But to deny that the flip is an azmaing play, to say "Oh he was in the wrong position boring" you have to be a hater.


[/ QUOTE ]

Giambi slides and this thread never begins.

MLerra
04-06-2005, 04:07 PM
"Top 9TH B:0 S:0 O:0
Defensive Substitution: Rey Sanchez replaces shortstop Derek Jeter, batting 1st."

So let's see... top of the 9th... up by 1 run... Yankees vs. Red Sox for the sweep. Talk about CLUTCH situations. And yet, what does Torre do? He takes out Jeter and puts in Rey Sanchez. Yes that's right... the Manager of the Yankees believes that Rey Sanchez is a better clutch fielder than Derek Jeter. How's that for intangibles.

kerssens
04-06-2005, 04:09 PM
[ QUOTE ]
"Top 9TH B:0 S:0 O:0
Defensive Substitution: Rey Sanchez replaces shortstop Derek Jeter, batting 1st."

So let's see... top of the 9th... up by 1 run... Yankees vs. Red Sox for the sweep. Talk about CLUTCH situations. And yet, what does Torre do? He takes out Jeter and puts in Rey Sanchez. Yes that's right... the Manager of the Yankees believes that Rey Sanchez is a better clutch fielder than Derek Jeter. How's that for intangibles.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, he did get hit in the head by Timlin in the bottom of the 8th.

Jack of Arcades
04-06-2005, 05:23 PM
Giambi slides and he's even more out.

Pocket Trips
04-06-2005, 05:47 PM
Hockey, back when they actually used to play it, is loaded with guys who "turned it on" come playoff time. Every year GM's would climb all over each other trying to trade for guy's like Claude Lemieux who played like they were posessed once the playoffs started. Now all you stat-heads out there are already screaming "show me proof! show me proof!" and there may or may not be stats out there that prove there is clutch ability but i think the very fact you would try to quantify this mathematically either shows a lack of real-world experience with sports or some sort of need for EVERYTHING to be able to be proven mathematically.

I feel that this is common among many 2+2'ers in my limited exposure to this board ( about a month or so now). I am no expert on poker by any means but i sometimes feel like many 2+2er's feel that poker and life in general is a big math equation that can be solved with enough practice. Sure statistically speaking pot odds say to call certain draws but I feel many 2+2er's call down WAY TOO MUCH with hands they know are beaten b/c pot odds dictate they should. Yes i know you can say it is better to call this bet and be beat 9 out of 10 times, but if you are experienced enough in poker to be able to know that, you should also be experieced enough to know that your bottom 2 pair is beat when the passive player you haven't heard a peep from all night 3 bets you on the turn.

Not sure how I started off on baseball and hockey and ended up on poker but I just get sick and tired of all the stat-heads who talk about real world events as if they are all occuring in a vacuum where math can be applied to everything at all times.

Pocket Trips
04-06-2005, 06:06 PM
[ QUOTE ]

No team has gone more than 86 years between championship wins (yet).

[/ QUOTE ]

Finally! something that can be proven/disproven with Math!
Cubs last won the world series in 1908. 2004-1908=96 years /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Jack of Arcades
04-06-2005, 06:08 PM
Ugh. I just can't respond to this because you've already made up your mind.

sublime
04-06-2005, 06:09 PM
I would like to add that it is possible to choke(via internal stress) but clutch does not exist.

you cant have hot water without having cold water

sublime
04-06-2005, 06:11 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Derek Jeter, regular season: .315/.385/.463
Derek Jeter, post season: .303/.380/.456

Derek Jeter's clearly a choker.


[/ QUOTE ]

in the playoffs he is batting against MUCH better pitching than on any randon day during the season.

Jack of Arcades
04-06-2005, 06:15 PM
1) my post was tongue in cheek
2) even though derek jeter has amassed a large amount of post-season PAs, he still has less than one season's worth, so sample size obviously applies. (you can't just ignore the sample size because it's in line with what we'd expect)

sublime
04-06-2005, 06:16 PM
All of you guys arguing that clutch exists are numb nuts who know far less about sports(and stats) then you are willing to believe

this is such crap. i dont like using the word 'clutch' to describe a cetrain player or situation, but i cant think of a better term. gamer? leader? i mean i dont know what to say. certain players playe better under stress than others. simple. call him a 'focused' player for all i care, but how can somebody say this is not true?

Jack of Arcades
04-06-2005, 06:18 PM
What is this, like the tenth time in the thread that post has been made?

sublime
04-06-2005, 09:34 PM
huh?

Jack of Arcades
04-07-2005, 03:18 AM
I mean we're just going in circles here, man. This thread is 200 posts long because everyone's saying the same thing over and over. Is all.

FWIW, I think if "clutch" exists, most players are clutch (whatever we mean by that definition) so for the most part it's indeterminable because it's also heavily influenced by randomness, etc.

Pocket Trips
04-07-2005, 09:29 AM
This is new postng on an old topic. But i feel that my post brings up a slightly different topic of mathematics being over-used to justify certain arguements. for anyone not familiar with what I am referring to the link is hereDerek Jeter Clutch? (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2081595&page=3&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=1&fpart=1)

Everyone who keeps saying that clutch ability cannot be proven mathematically therfore it does not exist is overlooking a few things about baseball and life in general.

NOT EVERYTHING CAN BE PROVEN OR DISPROVEN BY MATH. Even some of you who argue that clutch ability does not exist have given as a reason for this the small sample size of "clutch situations," however you want to define them I think we all can agree that it is a relatively small # of situations we are calling "clutch." The problem is that BY DEFINITION a clutch situation comes up very infrequently. So infrequently in fact that I'm sure there is no way to mathematically quantify it with any accuracy.

Just because something cannot be proven mathematically does not mean it cannot be DISPROVEN mathematically either. Lack of evidence against a theory does not disprove a theory. Even in a sport like baseball which lends itself so readily to statistical analysis, not everything about a players ability both offensively and defensively can be expressed statistically. If everything regarding a players ability coud be expressed statistically there would be no need for MLB scouts. GM's and managers would just be able to look at a players stat sheet and say "this guy is a major leaguer."
There is no denying that some players seem to handle the pressure of playoff baseball better than others. This is true of Superstars like Bonds and others who have consistantly choked come playoff time in the really big at bats that could have changed the course of a game with one swing. Then there are guys like David Ortiz last year who seemed to come through with a big AB every time it was needed. It is also true of guys who were role players like Mark Lemke or Luis Sojo who came through in big-time spots and whose careers are remembered specifially for just a play or 2.

Can it be expressed mathematically? no.

Is it a given that put into these same situations enough times to create a relavant sample size the same players would perform similarly? No.

But clutch ability is measured by relatively small # of situations over the course of a game or series not by an entire career. The players who consistantly come through in these rare situations will be remembered as "clutch" E.I. Reggie Jackson and his 3 HR's in 78 or Bucky "F'ing" Dent with his HR against the sox in the playoff game. Others who under-perform in such situations will be remembered for doing so because everything is under a magnifying glass in the playoffs. If you don't think that this isn't true just look at Bill Buckner. The guy put up what many considered borderline Hall of Fame #'s and was a great 1b for 99.999999% of his career but he is remembered for one play.

bisonbison
04-07-2005, 11:02 AM
Derek Jeter is not dutch.

jakethebake
04-07-2005, 11:13 AM
FYI - Jeter drives one of these:

http://www.tuningfever.com/albums/userpics/10005/00218.jpg

So his clutch looks like this:

http://www.importlifestyle.com/images/ebaypc3.jpg


End of thread.

Bulldog
04-07-2005, 04:32 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

No team has gone more than 86 years between championship wins (yet).

[/ QUOTE ]

Finally! something that can be proven/disproven with Math!
Cubs last won the world series in 1908. 2004-1908=96 years /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

The Cubs didn't win one in 2004.

Pocket Trips
04-07-2005, 04:40 PM
[/ QUOTE ]

The Cubs didn't win one in 2004.

[/ QUOTE ]


the stupidity in this post defies explanation. Bulldog... what is the most recentl completed baseball season? Unless my math is fuzzy it is 2004 therefore 2004-1908 = 96 years since the cubs have won a world series.. ugh i can't stand stupidity

jakethebake
04-07-2005, 04:43 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The Cubs didn't win one in 2004.

[/ QUOTE ]


the stupidity in this post defies explanation. Bulldog... what is the most recentl completed baseball season? Unless my math is fuzzy it is 2004 therefore 2004-1908 = 96 years since the cubs have won a world series.. ugh i can't stand stupidity

[/ QUOTE ]

He didn't say since. He said "between" wins. They may never win another one.

Voltron87
04-07-2005, 04:48 PM
Well you can pretty much write off this one. 97.

CallMeIshmael
04-30-2005, 05:37 PM
Hey all, sorry to bump this thread... but I recently got into an argument about whether or not clutch exists... and since I think it does, I would like to hear (especially jack of arcades) counter arguments to my thoughts...


My feelings on this subject are basically: clutch hitters do exist, but it is impossible to identify them given the information we have.


I define 'clutch' as the differential ability of somone to perform in pressure situations.

Now... a question to those who say clutch doesnt exist: do you believe that if two players are, say a 7.00 out of 10 in regular situations, it is possible for them to be 6.67 and 6.23 out of 10 in pressure at bats in the playoffs?

Basically, this is what I think of when I think clutch hitter:

1. Two hitters (A and B) who have stats such that you are indifferent between the two in a given non pressure situation.

2. You have a preference between the two in a pressure situation?

People handle stressful situations differently, and I would contend this is also true in baseball, though I cant back this up with evidence. (for a somewhat lame example... davis love III has stated he doesnt like playing with tiger woods... as the added pressure affects his game)

Now... I believe a study was conducted that showed that hitters arent capable of consistently having a higher average w/RISP than their true average. This doesnt necessarily, IMHO, prove that clutch doesnt exist.

There are factors that havent been accounted for in this analysis (an example of one is better pitching.. though Im not about to say that is to blame..)

But... as long as some players decrease at a far less severe rate under pressure, isnt that clutch?


Now... I want to state for the record that there is a very large difference between believing that clutch exists and that a player can be identified.

Derek Jeter is not necessarily clutch... he might be, he might not be... there is absolutely no way to determine whether or not someone is clutch, because the sample size is too small by about a factor of a million

So, in PRACTICE I guess I believe with those who say clutch doesnt exist, but in theory I believe it does


People handle stress differently. A situation that sends someone to therapy doesnt have that severe of an impact on someone else. I just dont see how MLBers all have the exact same ability to handle stress.

Jack of Arcades
04-30-2005, 06:06 PM
Clutch may or may not exist given someone's definition of it. I also think it probably exists in small amounts in the major league levels, but it's not a huge deal... since there are so many factors (variance, pitcher types, etc).

Put it this way: ignoring any "clutch ability" is probably less of a mistake than trying to draw conclusions based on small sample sizes.

CallMeIshmael
04-30-2005, 06:18 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Put it this way: ignoring any "clutch ability" is probably less of a mistake than trying to draw conclusions based on small sample sizes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you 100%.

I feel very strongly that clutch exists, but that doesnt mean I believe it is overly significant or measurable.