Bellagio 1500 NL, fold preflop?

[2005]

So, I busted out of the 1500 NL at Bellagio in about 7 hands because of this:

I start this hand with 2400 chips, blinds 25/50, villain has me well covered. from MP, he makes it 400, I have J /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and I?

Gavin

[schwza]

what position are you?

[whiskeytown]

you didn't go all in with JJ the 7th hand, did ya?

I'm guessing you called, saw a flop with no overs, repopped his bet all in, and got burned by an overpair.

I'll be there next week in Vegas, it'd be cool to meet and get an autograph from ya right next to Phil Hellmuth's table - /images/graemlins/grin.gif

but I won't be playing Bellagio tourneys....don't got the scratch...

pax
RB

[2005]

I'm directly to his left.

Gavin

[MLG]

I hate big open raisers. I think I call, its hard for me to believe any hand you are really ahead of calls a push.

By the way, my condolences on Reno, it made me want to throw up reading about it.

[2005]

Thanks regarding Reno, it wasn't quite as bad as it seemed... I had 70k at the 300/600-75 leveland lost a coin flip for like 11k and then the guy who beat me in the coin flip got the rest of the chips next couple hands.

As for this hand... pushing never crossed my mind as a viable option.

Gavin

[whiskeytown]

are they sticking the tables for the 5 star poker classic in/around the poker room or they in a seperate area from the ring games - just in case I wanna play there but skip the mob scene that comes with tourneys...

RB

[2005]

The poker room is being renovated, so the tournament is in the poker area outside the old poker room and the Fontana Bar.

Gavin

[whiskeytown]

right....knew that from Feb.

Just wasn't sure if maybe the tournament tables were seperate from the ring game tables.

RB

[MLG]

well, you can't raise and fold to a push. So, unless you think the guy is a half crazed nut who will push you in with a wide variety of hands if you make a small raise then how do you have an option besides calling.

Unless you're talking about folding, but that seems pretty gross to me.

[2005]

yeah, I thought I would probably kill myself if I folded, so I called 400,... flop is 975r, and he checks... I?

Gavin

[MLG]

I think I bet 500-600 and fold to a c-raise push.

[nolanfan34]

How long are the levels? Will the blinds go to 50/100 next?

Very tough hand. Too much to fold, and I don't know that I like the calling option.

While MLG said that most hands you are ahead of won't call a push, I'm not so sure that picking up the 475 that's in there isn't such a bad thing.

This is a tough call. I'm split between seeing a flop, and check/folding to an A or K, or pushing a T or lower flop, or raising all-in PF.

I don't think I can fold PF.

[2005]

OK Mike, we're 2/2... I bet 600, he called. Turn is a 4, he checks, I?

Gavin

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I bet 500-600 and fold to a c-raise push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like that flop line. Your call PF has to make him somewhat curious, and most people aren't going to c/r you all-in with just overs there, right?

[ZootMurph]

Any raise will either bring a reraise putting you all in or a fold... neither of which you want here. You really don't want to fold those. So call and play poker on the flop. Besides, you still have 40 BB if you fold the flop, so you are still in good shape.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
OK Mike, we're 2/2... I bet 600, he called. Turn is a 4, he checks, I?

Gavin

[/ QUOTE ]

there's 2k in the middle and you have 1.4k left.

check behind, prepare to call a push on the river. you might be giving him a free 6-outer, but i don't think that's that likely.

[betgo]

Were there any limpers in the pot, or was this an open raise 8xBB? I assume there were no antes at this point. Had villain made this move before? How had villain played? I realize this was the seventh hand, but you might have some idea as to whether you are dealing with a maniac.

My guess from the bet and the fact that he busted out was that he had KK or QQ and wanted to price out anyone playing for a set and get enough in the pot so that he could win a big pot if he was called.

[MLG]

I think i would probably bet again, but a check is probably right (this might also be the results speaking though).

You said this was early and he had you will covered, how'd he get his chips? Is it possible he's calling with just overs here? Otherwise you have to be buried right?

edit: 88 is very possible too.

[MLG]

Picking up the money there would be very nice, but I don't know how high the probability of him having AA/KK/QQ. If we both had 20x and he open raised a normal amount a push would be pretty mandatory, but with 40x I want to be pretty sure I can pick up those chips before i make that push.

[ZootMurph]

yeah, I thought I would probably kill myself if I folded, so I called 400,... flop is 975r, and he checks... I?

I make a probe bet of about 1/3 of the pot... 300.

OK Mike, we're 2/2... I bet 600, he called. Turn is a 4, he checks, I?

You have 1400 left, pot is 2275. If he called the flop with 2 overcards, he already made a mistake. You are either way ahead or way behind. Another bet will pot commit you here. I check behind and will be likely to put all my chips in if an overcard doesn't hit. What puzzles me is that he raised preflop, and is now check/calling.

[2005]

no limpers, he open raised to 8xBB. he was very weak, so yeah, this could have been QQ, but I thought it was much more likely it was AK.

Gavin

[2005]

Yeah, this is the street I think I whiffed on. I pushed for 1400 and he insta-called with KK. I think I could have saved myself some chips by checking the turn, he wouldn't have bet very much on the end I don't think. I might have been able to get away from the hand as well.

Gavin

[MLG]

Yeah, checking the turn has to be right. Incidently, if the river is an A and he checks again I think pushing is the right play.

[betgo]

I know this seems like result-oriented thinking, but if this guy wants the blinds so bad, why not let him have them. If he keeps making raises like this, then you can get a read on what kind of hand he might have. There are a lot of weak players who will overbet with huge hands.

If villain had played this normally, he would have raised to 200, you would have reraised to 600, he would have pushed, and you have had a tough decision. If he raised to 200 and you flat called, you would have lost some more chips when the low cards hit. It is hard not to lose some chips with JJ versus KK in middle position.

[MLG]

The problem with folding against a weaker player in the hopes of getting a bigger edge later is that you aren't the only one trying to get his chips. you have to go after the weak players because otherwise those chips end up in somebody elses stack, presumably somebody who can use them better.

[2005]

That, and, this isn't a main event, we aren't extremely deep... yes, I have 48 BB at the beginning of this hand, but in 30 minutes I'm only gonna have 24 BB. I stand by my thinking that there's no fold preflop here...

[betgo]

I would rather take a weaker player's chips by limping with a pair or suited connector and have them call down my set, straight, or flush. Let him call your reraise when you have the big pair. Here the weak player got Gavin's chips.

When someone raises 8xBB, why not give him credit for KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, or AQ, and get out of his way unless you are definately ahead against the average of those hands. If he does this regularly, then you may have a better read on him and you can look for a different approach against it.

[2005]

Mike, what are your reasons for checking the turn? I'm not completely convinced that I should check here....

Gavin

[MLG]

ok, lets assume for the sake of argument that he can call this flop bet with just overs. If thats the case then you are beating AK/AQ/1010,88 and way behind AA/KK/QQ/99. The hands that are ahead arent drawing all that live against you here with 1 card to come, and while the 12 combinations of 1010/88 may call the turn, the 32 combinations of AK/AQ surely wont. On the other hand, the times you are buried you leave yourself a chance of keeping chips.

The downside is that you are potentially facing a very difficult river decision if he sets you all-in on the river no matter what hits. Live though, I think I'd be willing to take that trade off.

The real interesting decision is what do you do if a big card hits and he checks to you again.

[2005]

ok, I'll take that as a sufficient explanation. Sounds pretty good then.

Gavin

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
The real interesting decision is what do you do if a big card hits and he checks to you again.

[/ QUOTE ]

really? i thought that would be an obvious check. i thought the tough choice would be if he pushes (blank or big card)

[2005]

he didn't say tough decision, he said interesting one... I would probably have checked behind if an A hit on the river if I had checked the turn, but who knows.

Gavin

[MLG]

Well the question for me becomes whats more likely....that the opponent called the flop with unimproved overs or a set and then checked the turn, and checked the river (if his A hit). Or that he was playing tricky with KK/QQ and hated the river A enough to fold.

[MLG]

If he can't call the flop bet with just overs its an easy check behind because you are almost certainly crushed, and I'll fold to a push. If he can, I'm setting myself up for a decision thats gonna make me want to throw up on the river one way or the other. Since its possible I'll call with the worst hand or fold the best hand if he pushes any card.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
he makes it 400, I have J J and I?


[/ QUOTE ]
.......
[ QUOTE ]
I bet 600, he called

[/ QUOTE ]


= 'HE HAS A MONSTER'

[Mike Gallo]

I start this hand with 2400 chips, blinds 25/50, villain has me well covered. from MP, he makes it 400, I have J J and I?

My antennae go up whenever anyone raises 8x the big blind.

I have played with players who will make a raise this big to set up an image and future plays. The next time that player makes a raise that large, player who has a decent pair or two suited connectors might look him up.

I have also played with the player who raises with only AA or KK and will play them superfast. They do this hoping to get action from guys who will automatically put them on a steal.

Do you have any line on your opponents play? Do you remember if he has made this play in the past with less then QQ.

Since I have no read on this player I would call and see what the flop brings.

For the record, JJ has busted me out of more tournaments then any other hand.

[Mike Gallo]

so I called 400,... flop is 975r, and he checks... I?

This is where I burn my stack. I plan on betting and calling a check raise.

[Mike Gallo]

I think I bet 500-600 and fold to a c-raise push.

This is why I suck /images/graemlins/smirk.gif.

I would call the check raise.

[Mike Gallo]

Now I would tend to check behind him.

[Mike Gallo]

No reason to fold preflop.

[tpir90036]

Tournament stack sizes always make these hands more interesting than they are in cash games.

There is no way you can fold pre-flop unless this guy is ridiculously tight or has a ridiculous betting pattern whereby 8xBB = AA/KK /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Anyway, once he calls your flop bet alarm bells are going off in my head. In a cash game I would check that turn every time... exercise a little pot control since if we play a big one right now it probably is not going to end well for us. This idea changes as we get shallow ....but I don't think you are committed yet and I am kind of surprised you questioned the turn check suggestion at first. Unless you really think this guy is taking one off with AK.

This hand was going to be tough either way though because I am not sure you can get away from it on the river if a blank comes down.

[Jason Strasser]

MIKE AND GAVIN GET A ROOM YOU LOVEBIRDS.

As for the hand, folding is a crime pf, and probably against this type of opponent reraising and folding is a horrible idea, especially with an open raise to 8bb with a little less than 50bb.

I also check the flop and that is not the results speaking. For me you are either ahead, or he is drawing to six outs or two outs. There are drawbacks to checking (letting him draw for free), but the fact is that a very weak/fishy player raised pf and checked the flop which means either that he missed or that he is trapping. A check/check on the flop allows you IMO to have more control over the hand. If he bets the turn you can decide if you want to play for your stack or instead exit stage left.

Betting for information on the flop is just too costly. Betting and folding to a reraise is O.K. but I just feel more comfortable checking and reacting to his turn action.

During this type of hand I really just want to get to showdown cheaply or I want to get there confident I am ahead with my stack in the middle. Playing passively gives your opponent the ability to draw, but it also gives you some equity snapping off a bluff from missed big cards or a smaller pair, when betting probably wont let you get that.

Plus... If you are drawing on the flop to 2 outs, a free card cant hurt at all /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

When it's all said and done I probably end up losing my stack here at some point, but I really strongly believe checking the flop is the way to go...

-Jason

[betgo]

I guess I am the only one for folding preflop. Everybody acts like you should treat an 8xBB open raise like a 4xBB raise. If you see that 8xBB is his normal raise, then you can do that.

Why would someone make an 8xBB open raise in the first round of a tournament? Is the purpose to steal the blinds? The most reasonable reason for making this play is he has a big hand and wants to build a pot.

This guy is probably used to playing at a lower level where this kind of play works. A lot of people in these forums advocate making huge raises with big pairs in cash games and early in SNGs and MTTs, because people will call you.

JJ is a good hand, but it is dominated by a lot of the hands someone might make this overbet raise with to build a pot.

Yeh, this guy is a bad player. A good player would do nothing unusual with KK. He would make a standard raise or maybe limp. This guy is telling you, "Hey, I have a big pair. Get out of my way." So get out of his way.

[2005]

damnit, I replied to this then misclicked and it didn't post. Short version... he wasn't doing it for an image, he was just scared/intimidated by the situation IMHO(probably his first "big" live tournament).

Gavin

[2005]

Yeah, I think this is true Soss and I'm not really sure why I missed this. I haven't been using my reading skills very well lately... I need to slow down and take time on every decision. Instead of "I have an overpair, I bet" I should be thinking... "I have an overpair, what might he have, what would he call my all in with, if I check the turn, am I going to call a bet on the river if it's a blank, if it's an A?"

Gavin

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
I also check the flop and that is not the results speaking. For me you are either ahead, or he is drawing to six outs or two outs. There are drawbacks to checking (letting him draw for free), but the fact is that a very weak/fishy player raised pf and checked the flop which means either that he missed or that he is trapping. A check/check on the flop allows you IMO to have more control over the hand. If he bets the turn you can decide if you want to play for your stack or instead exit stage left.

[/ QUOTE ]
Problem with checking the flop is that if opponent has a pocket pair smaller than jacks he really has 14 outs (because if the turn is an ace, king, or queen, there's a good chance Gavin will fold to a reasonable-size bet).

[cferejohn]

Egad. No way I am folding this. That big raise looks like either AK or something like 88-TT to me (unless you had a read on villian that said otherwise). I either push or maybe stop-n-go.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I am the only one for folding preflop. Everybody acts like you should treat an 8xBB open raise like a 4xBB raise. If you see that 8xBB is his normal raise, then you can do that.

Why would someone make an 8xBB open raise in the first round of a tournament? Is the purpose to steal the blinds? The most reasonable reason for making this play is he has a big hand and wants to build a pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, maybe it's too many $200 Party sit-n-goes talking, but I find this kind of overbet raise is AK or 88-TT. That is a hand that is probably the best, but can easily be outflopped. Now, my experience of playing tournaments with buy ins greater than $1K is exactly 2, and I can see things being different there.

Imho, this is a terrible way to play KK, because a vast majority of the he's getting only the blinds. He is, essentially, hoping that he runs into JJ or QQ, and it just so happens that he did, and if one assumes that these (plus AA) are the only hands that are going to give him action, he's essentially putting himself in a situation where he's going to be an 80% dog about 1/3 of the time the chips go in.

I like the way you played it. I'm not sure I would fold to a flop C-R (I certainly wouldn't in a Party tournament against a random player, but I appreciate that these are different situations). When I saw the flat call of the flop bet, the "he has a set" alarms went off in my head. Wrong, but you had the same number of outs as you would against a set, so whatever.

After he calls that flop bet, I'm probably checking the turn and folding to anything substantial (which of course means that if a player *did* flop a set against me here, he'd be more likely to get it paid off by playing it fast on the flop).

Anyway, pretty tough hand here. A relevant question: if you'd had the KK and he had the JJ, do you think you would have gotten all the chips in? If so, you essentially "broke even" in the long run (not, of course, that there is ever going to be a sufficient long run for tournaments of this buy in). That's a question I always try to ask myself after a hand like this though.

Chris

[Tyler Durden]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I also check the flop and that is not the results speaking. For me you are either ahead, or he is drawing to six outs or two outs. There are drawbacks to checking (letting him draw for free), but the fact is that a very weak/fishy player raised pf and checked the flop which means either that he missed or that he is trapping. A check/check on the flop allows you IMO to have more control over the hand. If he bets the turn you can decide if you want to play for your stack or instead exit stage left.

[/ QUOTE ]
Problem with checking the flop is that if opponent has a pocket pair smaller than jacks he really has 14 outs (because if the turn is an ace, king, or queen, there's a good chance Gavin will fold to a reasonable-size bet).

[/ QUOTE ]

Supposing that this player is sophisticated enough to bluff at a face card is giving far too much credit IMO. Gavin said the 8x raise is likely b/c the player was intimidated by his first live tourney.

This was a tough hand Gavin. Some situations are just too difficult to get away from when stacks that aren't deep.

[drexah]

call and lose your chips when all unders flop.

[drexah]

[ QUOTE ]
damnit, I replied to this then misclicked and it didn't post. Short version... he wasn't doing it for an image, he was just scared/intimidated by the situation IMHO(probably his first "big" live tournament).

Gavin

[/ QUOTE ]

I find myself doing the same thing sometimes, it's good your honest with yourself though, the more you recognize it, the faster the problem will be fixed.

[Benal]

Just wanted to say welcome back Chris.. It has been awhile since you last posted...

[Jedster]

I don't think this is a PF call situation because your stack isn't deep enough. I think it's either push or fold.

You are up against one of three situations. Either:

a) You are ahead and your opponent is an extremely-aggresive player looking to play a big pot with two cards in a shot at doubling up

b) You are ahead and your opponent has AK or 88-TT and is afraid of playing a flop

c) You are ahead and your opponent has AA-QQ and wants to raise so much that his decisions are easy on the flop

The reason I don't like a call when you don't have a good read on which of these scenarios is taking place is that you are going to have to put in more chips on many flops to find out where you are. And if you're going to put more chips in on the flop or turn, with only 2,000 chips left and the blinds going up in 15 hands, you're likely to decide to put all your chips in at that point. So you may as well put them in before the flop -- or fold.

Another factor to consider is if you just call someone behind you may overcall with an AK, an overcall you don't want at this stage in the tournament. Even worse, they might go all-in with AK and you'll be forced to make a tough decision. This happens -- yesterday in the same tourney at the same level, UTG made it 150 and I raised to 700 in MP with AA and AKo in the BB put me all-in for 3,000 chips, which of course I gladly called. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

So I prefer a push to a call before the flop. (Who knows, KK could fold -- I've seen it happen before, not often, but from the KK perspective he's said 'I've got a monster' by raising to 8x BB and someone has made it 48x BB...so he's got to consider whether you have AA.)

But really I think the right move is to fold. When the guy raises to 400 he's representing a monster. I think in order to give him action, you need to have evidence to suggest he's capable of making a huge overbet bluff this early in the tournament. Most players who are playing in one of their first bigger buy-in events want to get some play out of the event and aren't prone to throwing $400 raises without big hands.

There are exceptions to this obviously. For example, the guy guy to my right yesterday brought it in for between 250 and 425 at least 5 times in the first 35 minutes. If I had JJ against him with your stack size I'm pushing 11 out of 10 times. But against someone who has only done it once, I think you can lay it down.

I think an interesting question is this: what kind of stack size do you want to have in order to make this flat call? My thought at this level is you'd want about 5-6,000 chips. Your bigger stack both means your committing a smaller percentage of your chips and it also puts more pressure on your opponent since you can bust him and he can't bust you.

[DonButtons]

You find this situation a lot in tournaments, and I started to take a different approach here.

The flop will come unders or you will hit a set like 50% of the time, so you will hit a nice flop a lot.

The problem, is putting your opponent on a hand. You cant just generalize you opponent on AK, and be happy on a all unders flop, this is def. a no no. If you think he has a overpair, only call if you can dump it on a all unders board unless you hit a set. But since you only have 2400 at the start of the hand, you cant really get to much information out of him without the hand costing your whole stack. So Id say fold, and thats not being results oriented (spelling?).

[zaxx19]

[ QUOTE ]
So Id say fold

[/ QUOTE ]

The funny/scary thing is if I held QQ I think I might go dead broke on this hand in a shallow stack tourney like that.

Seems sort-off illogical doesnt it?

[srblan]

I don't really like risking that much of my stack with JJ at that point in the tourney but I'd probably have seen a flop. When you called his big raise, he may have been thinking you had aces. I don't mind a fold preflop at all just because his play is so weird in that spot.