Confused on the river... 4 straight and 3 flushed...

[meep_42]

CO is a donk, BB is solid. That's the best read I have on them at the moment.

Hero has black Kings in the hi-jack.

One limper, Hero raises, CO cold-calls, fold to BB who 3-bets, limper calls, Hero caps, all call.

4 to the flop for 16.5 SB
Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif on the flop

BB bets out, EP calls, I call intending to raise a safe turn card, CO calls.

4 to the turn for 10.25 BB
(Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif
BB bets out, limper folds, I call (since i'm not ahead of any 3-betting hand except AQ now) and have an OESD, CO calls.

3 to the river for 13.25BB
(Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif
BB bets out, hero makes a crying call, CO raises, BB calls (all-in), hero folds.

Thoughts?

-d

[meanjean]

I have to question the crying call. I don't know if you are going to win that hand 1 in 13 times vs. two people...but I'd listen to other viewpoints.

[QTip]

Meep...I don't like the frop. I think you need to raise for value here, you can't protect here or on the turn anyway...jam it and hope you hold up and also get some info from BB because if he calls your cap and then leads the turn...that's valueable info.

One of these crazy situations where you didn't want to river trips...

[Nick Royale]

About the "wait for the turn"-thing:
1. Do we really need to wait for the turn here?
2. What hands will a solid player bet into you on the turn with that we beat? (assuming a safe turn like 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif)

I think:
1. I would have raised the flop, but if I'm wrong convince me not to.
2. I think we'll only get bet into by AA KK QQ JJ and AQ. We lose against 12 combos and win against 12 (split to 1). Can we really raise a safe turn? Wouldn't it be more profitable to raise the flop since BB will check most of the hands we beat on the turn? We don't know if EP will call an evantual turn bet so I like to take the immediate profit by raising the flop.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I have to question the crying call. I don't know if you are going to win that hand 1 in 13 times vs. two people...but I'd listen to other viewpoints.

[/ QUOTE ]
Donk can have anything. BB are most likely to have QQ JJ or AQ. We win against 6 combos and lose to 12 (he's more likely to bet the river with AQ though). The pot is big and you'll only have to win it ~7% of the time. If it was HU against BB I would say you'll win it ~15-20%. I don't think the presence of a donk changes that under 7%.

[meep_42]

I was really torn on raising the flop and wasn't sure that a raise would have been for value -- it's only for value against AQ/AK/TT there (and TT/AQ are a little stretchy) -- and i'm a big dog against any of BB's other holdings.

How different is it from the SSH hand?

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (19.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero ???

Other than a couple more broadways, i'm not sure there is -- I really think that this is a good place to wait.

Can someone pokerstove this for me?
Donk - 22-TT, any two broadways suited or not
BB - TT-AA, AK, AQ
EP limper - 22-99, any two broadways suited or not, except AK/AQ and KQs

Then plug in a blank turn and compare equity (and the actual turn)

-d

[meanjean]

[ QUOTE ]
Donk can have anything. BB are most likely to have QQ JJ or AQ. We win against 6 combos and lose to 12 (he's more likely to bet the river with AQ though). The pot is big and you'll only have to win it ~7% of the time. If it was HU against BB I would say you'll win it ~15-20%. I don't think the presence of a donk changes that under 7%.

[/ QUOTE ]

But don't we have to consider the chances of being raised in that situation? Don't we have to consider paying two bets when we call?

Every concievable draw has hit and a raise is a distinct possibility...donk or not. Had the solid player had more money we would have had to consider a reraise too.

Heck maybe I'm just thinking too much

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
BB are most likely to have QQ JJ or AQ. We win against 6 combos and lose to 12 (he's more likely to bet the river with AQ though).

[/ QUOTE ]
AA?

Still, I don't mind the first call. Pretty easy fold though. BB being close to all in at the end makes me a little more inclined to make the first call. People with few chips do odd things sometimes.

I think the flop and turn calls are OK. That board pretty much blows.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
BB is solid. BB calls (all-in)



[/ QUOTE ]

Can both of these be true?

[meep_42]

Well, he seemed solid from what i'd seen.

-d

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, he seemed solid from what i'd seen.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
AA?

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course. Thanks.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
But don't we have to consider the chances of being raised in that situation? Don't we have to consider paying two bets when we call?

Every concievable draw has hit and a raise is a distinct possibility...donk or not. Had the solid player had more money we would have had to consider a reraise too.


[/ QUOTE ]
That's not a problem since Hero planned to fold to a raise. The river fold, I think, depends on how donk-ish the donk is.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I was really torn on raising the flop and wasn't sure that a raise would have been for value -- it's only for value against AQ/AK/TT there (and TT/AQ are a little stretchy) -- and i'm a big dog against any of BB's other holdings.

[/ QUOTE ]
But then raising the turn is even worse.

[ QUOTE ]
Other than a couple more broadways, i'm not sure there is -- I really think that this is a good place to wait.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've not the SSHE in front of me but in this hand Hero will be able to protect his hand on the turn (giving the other callers at best 7.5:1). A huge difference IMO. I don't think Ed wants to call the flop for a safe card, but to be able to protect his hand. EDIT: Plus you'll beat much more hands villian will bet into you on the turn in the SSHE hand.

[ QUOTE ]
Can someone pokerstove this for me?
Donk - 22-TT, any two broadways suited or not
BB - TT-AA, AK, AQ
EP limper - 22-99, any two broadways suited or not, except AK/AQ and KQs

Then plug in a blank turn and compare equity (and the actual turn)

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm on to it.

[Nick Royale]

Board: Qh 5c Jh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 14.4721 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { TT-22, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 2: 33.5703 % [ 00.32 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 3: 14.7280 % [ 00.14 00.00 ] { 99-22, AJs-ATs, KJs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AJo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 4: 37.2296 % [ 00.36 00.01 ] { KsKc }


Board: Qh 5c Jh 3s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 12.4674 % [ 00.12 00.00 ] { TT-22, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 2: 30.7835 % [ 00.30 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 3: 13.5987 % [ 00.13 00.00 ] { 99-22, AJs-ATs, KJs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AJo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 4: 43.1505 % [ 00.42 00.01 ] { KsKc }

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
But then raising the turn is even worse.

[/ QUOTE ]
On the turn, I can likely protect against 1 player with, say AT or K9. But, given my relative position, I got really locked up in this hand.

Thanks for the stove run-up... doesn't look like my equity increases all that much on a blank -- I guess the scaryness of this board actually makes it more correct to raise the flop.

Anyone else?

(as for how donkish the donk was -- i'm not terribly sure, only about 2 orbits with him, but he was 50% pre-flop, not too aggressive anywhere along the line.)

-d