can someone explain folding equity?

[syphlix]

ok...i know this is a newb question... but could someone just answer this?...

from reading all the posts... i gather that folding equity is basically just how likely you are to get someone to fold... i.e. if you've got 320 chips and blinds are at 1/200, you've got none... but if you've got 2000, then you've got a lot... is this pretty much how it is?

[kspade]

Yep

[Scuba Chuck]

It's a good start. IMO, folding equity is another term for the gap concept. Study the gap concept more (i.e. TPFAP or the archives), and this should become more clear.

[suited_ace]

Folding Equity = Gap Concept?

I don't see it... As far as I know, the Gap Concept says that the range of hands you're raising with is bigger than the range of hands you're calling with, right?

Folding equity is directly related to stack size vs. stack size vs. blind size. Let's say it's battle of the blinds. Both players have 5000. SB holds AK, BB has 99. In the first scenario blinds are at 10/20. They both have 250BB, so there's NO WAY the BB is calling the all-in here. SB's FE is huge. Second scenario: blinds at 1000/2000. They both have 2.5BB. The BB is calling here 9 times out of 10. SB's folding equity is very little.

Can you explain why you think FE = Gap Concept?

[sofere]

FE and Gap Concept are very closely related. The lower your FE, the smaller the gap between calling and raising for both you and your opponents.

[suited_ace]

Hmmm... Now it makes sense. Thx.

[SNOWBALL138]

Lets say that a tight aggressive player on your right raises, and you put him on QQ, JJ, TT, AK, or AQs, but not AA or KK.

If you have AK then there is only one hand that he holds that you can beat (AQs), and there are only 3 combinations of that hand possible. Therefore, 18 times you are beaten, 9 times you are tied, and 3 times you are a favorite. So, your weighted % chance to win is low. However, raising all in may be profitable because you have 2 chances to win:

1. when he folds

2. when you outdraw him (which will happen quite often)

So, even though you know that your hand equity is not high enough to get your chips in the middle, you can add the folding equity to your hand equity to compensate for that.

Sooooo, next time your big slick gets sent walking back to houston by someone holding ducks in the pocket, and then he comments "wow, some people think AK is a lot better than it really is" just remember that you made the right play b/c you have folding equity against most players, but definitely not that one!

[Cleveland Guy]

Another part of Folding Equity, is that of you and the others at your table.

If you have pushed 3 hands in a row - your folding equity is low.

If you have one big stack who is willing to GAMBOOL with 2 live cards (T9s), then even a 8xBB push might not get him to fold.

The tighter you play - the more folding equity you should have.

[Paul2432]

Folding equity = chance of opponent folding x size of pot

Example: pot is 1000 and you think your opponent will fold 40% of the time if you bet. Your folding equity is 400. If your bet is less than 400 then you show an automatic profit no matter what happens if called. If your bet is greater than 400 you will lose money unless you win some of the time you are called.

Paul

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm... Now it makes sense. Thx.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's pretty funny. I was gonna suggest you reread your post and explain to me the difference.

Scuba

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding equity = chance of opponent folding x size of pot

[/ QUOTE ]

[kspade]

[ QUOTE ]
Example: pot is 1000 and you think your opponent will fold 40% of the time if you bet. Your folding equity is 400. If your bet is less than 400 then you show an automatic profit no matter what happens if called.
Paul

[/ QUOTE ]

This is that theoretical Sklansky Dollars profit, right?

[suited_ace]

[ QUOTE ]
That's pretty funny. I was gonna suggest you reread your post and explain to me the difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just woke up, but seems my brain didn't.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding equity = chance of opponent folding x size of pot

[/ QUOTE ]

I've never seen that. I like it.

Unfortunately, I don't think this equation applies as succinctly to short-stacked SNGs. In particularly, villain could reverse FE against you, then how does your equation work?

For example:
6 handed, blinds 100/200. Folded to you in SB. Your stack is 1600 (after posting). BB stack is 1400 (after posting). You look down and see that you were dealt two cards. You raise to 400. BB reraises you allin.

The only reason I bring this up, is that there are many instances in which I think the chance that BB folds to an allin raise is one thing, but will not fold to a miniraise is another.

Ah, I'm grabbing at strings. I very much like that equation, although I'm generally using FE incorrectly then.

Scuba

[Pokerscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Folding equity = chance of opponent folding x size of pot

[/ QUOTE ]

I've never seen that. I like it.

Unfortunately, I don't think this equation applies as succinctly to short-stacked SNGs. In particularly, villain could reverse FE against you, then how does your equation work?

For example:
6 handed, blinds 100/200. Folded to you in SB. Your stack is 1600 (after posting). BB stack is 1400 (after posting). You look down and see that you were dealt two cards. You raise to 400. BB reraises you allin.

The only reason I bring this up, is that there are many instances in which I think the chance that BB folds to an allin raise is one thing, but will not fold to a miniraise is another.

Ah, I'm grabbing at strings. I very much like that equation, although I'm generally using FE incorrectly then.

Scuba

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps you would prefer it written like this?

Folding equity given a particular bet size = Chance of opponent folding given a particular bet size x pot size

Pokerscott

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

Fold equity is equal to the amount of EV you gain by your opponent folding. Period.


[/ QUOTE ]

-- PM (adapted from Kurn, et al.)

Yugoslav

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say it's battle of the blinds. Both players have 5000. SB holds AK, BB has 99. In the first scenario blinds are at 10/20. They both have 250BB, so there's NO WAY the BB is calling the all-in here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You obviously never seen the original draft of Abraham Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs . . . or played much Party poker on a Friday night. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Mr_J]

To me it's just a measure of the power you have to make people fold. This includes image, stack size, type of opponent and the situation.

Larger stacks generally have more FE.
You will have more FE vs a tight player than a loose one.
If you are seen as a good TAG, you gain FE.
You can use the situation to your advantage to gain FE. This most often occurs on the bubble, ie when someone is close to busting out and the table tightens up.

Just wanted to make sure I have the right idea...

[Sam T.]

[ QUOTE ]
ok...i know this is a newb question... but could someone just answer this?...

from reading all the posts... i gather that folding equity is basically just how likely you are to get someone to fold... i.e. if you've got 320 chips and blinds are at 1/200, you've got none... but if you've got 2000, then you've got a lot... is this pretty much how it is?

[/ QUOTE ]

It also depends on:
- The size of your opponent's stack. If you have 2000 on the button, and the BB has 50 left after posting, you (should) have zero folding equity. On the other hand, if he has 10k (say it's a three table SnG), you don't have as much as if he had 4k.

-The stage of the tournament. Against typical players, the closer you get to the money, the higher your folding equity is. Most players will try to fold their way into the money, which is why stealing on the bubble is so profitable.

Sam