Presto

[Phil Van Sexton]

30/3. Villian has been very tight so far. Nothing to reading except a lot of folding.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t2350)
Hero (t1020)
BB (t740)
UTG (t650)
MP (t1370)
CO (t1870)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t650 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero???

[Scuba Chuck]

Philly, I fold this eight times a week. That's twice on Sunday /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Scuba
who is positive that you're dominated - but maybe a coinflip.

[etgryphon]

[ QUOTE ]
who is positive that you're dominated - but maybe a coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me!

http://muextension.missouri.edu/explore/figures/g0196511.gif

-Gryph

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Philly, I fold this eight times a week. That's twice on Sunday /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Scuba
who is positive that you're dominated - but maybe a coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG has only 650 left and has to post 100/200 blinds on the next 2 hands. I feel like his range of hands is quite wide.

[Maulik]

I think we should consider UTG has t(650). Blinds are 100/200. The BB will take roughly 1/3 of his stack. The SB will take another 1/3 of his stack assuming he loses both hands. I think he's getting desperate here and hoping to steal the blinds and going for another shot around.

That said, I think its a coinflip between calling and folding. But I wouldn't really assume he has a better hand than yours by an means.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG has only 650 left and has to post 100/200 blinds on the next 2 hands. I feel like his range of hands is quite wide.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're a victim here of not playing enough SNGs a month. I agree that your analysis here might be right. And, think of it this way, you only dominate 3 hands. But your ability to steal blinds going forward on the $33s on this level outweighs the coinflip at this stage, IMO.

Another very important fact to consider. Letting him steal these blinds, gives you folding equity against him on the very next hand, in which you can get your blinds back.

[etgryphon]

I may have spoke too fast...

It is only 450 to you to win a minimum 950 pot. But, I bet if you call the BB may come with you if he has a dry A of any kind.

I think if you want to play this pot you have to at least get the BB to play also. Cause then you are getting some good pot odds to play. You have to realize that you are basically playing for you whole stack even though it is only 450 to you. If you lose you be left with 2.5 BB with them coming around real soon.

I think that if you can reasonably be sure that the BB may come with you I'd call.

If you aren't sure the BB will come then I would do this with less than pocket 9s.

-Gryph

[1C5]

edited. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

Philly, your question brings up many thoughts.

A. When to talk coinflips
B. CEV vs. $EV
C. Forward Folding Equity

I thought about your hand the whole drive to work (12 minutes). If you want to give me a hand range, I'll do the math for you. And as an added bonus, if you reply within the next 60 minutes, I'll throw in the math against any two cards as well.

Scuba

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Philly, your question brings up many thoughts.

A. When to talk coinflips
B. CEV vs. $EV
C. Forward Folding Equity

I thought about your hand the whole drive to work (12 minutes). If you want to give me a hand range, I'll do the math for you. And as an added bonus, if you reply within the next 60 minutes, I'll throw in the math against any two cards as well.

Scuba

[/ QUOTE ]

Dammit. I just wasted 15 minutes on the math when I could have had you do it. I'll post in a minute.

Why haven't I bought eastbay's tool yet?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Dammit. I just wasted 15 minutes on the math when I could have had you do it. I'll post in a minute.

Why haven't I bought eastbay's tool yet?


[/ QUOTE ]

Eastbay's calculator is just a crutch. Doing it longhand, now that's an art in it of itself.

[Sam T.]

[ QUOTE ]
Why haven't I bought eastbay's tool yet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh, heh. He said "Tool." /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Philly, your question brings up many thoughts.

A. When to talk coinflips
B. CEV vs. $EV
C. Forward Folding Equity

I thought about your hand the whole drive to work (12 minutes). If you want to give me a hand range, I'll do the math for you. And as an added bonus, if you reply within the next 60 minutes, I'll throw in the math against any two cards as well.

Scuba

[/ QUOTE ]



The ICM (assuming the BB folds)...

folding = 0.127
call+win = 0.2327
call+lose = 0.0551

I need to win a little more than 40% of the time to breakeven according to ICM. There are only 7 hands (AA-66) where 55 is not the favorite, albeit a small one in many cases.

Hand ranges....
Ax, Kx, any pair, any 2 broadway = 54.122% (ICM=0.151)
Ax, KJ+, any pair = 51.929% (ICM=0.147)
A6+, KJ+, any pair = 47.883% (ICM=0.140)


Maybe I can make up for the ICM with my "skill". Here are my problems with this (in order of importance, IMO)...
-There are 6 people left.
-I'll have only 4.75xBB after I fold.
-There are 3 big stacks directly to my right who may well try to steal ahead of me on the next 3 hands.

The BB confuses things a bit, but I think this is a push.

[Scuba Chuck]

Have you read this post?

Bozeman on the "old coinflip debate" (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=843788&amp;page=7&amp;view=co llapsed&amp;sb=7&amp;o=all&amp;vc=1)

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you read this post?
Bozeman on the "old coinflip debate" (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=843788&amp;page=7&amp;view=co llapsed&amp;sb=7&amp;o=all&amp;vc=1)

[/ QUOTE ]

I read it a while back. I even contributed some pointlessly confusing math to that discussion.

At the time, I don't think we were using ICM. Now we can just look at the ICM and get the answers. The ICM will clearly indicate that a true coin flip is -$EV.

The 55 hand is not quite the same case as the "bubble coin flip" that they were talking about. I say this because:
- My pot odds are better than even money. I have to call 550 to win 950.
- Losing will not eliminate me (just cripple me).
- There are 6 people left, not 4.

Of course, all of these things are accounted for in the ICM. Depending on the villain's hand, calling increases your ICM from 12.7 to 14 or 15. This is significant.

What do you think of these results?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you read this post?

Bozeman on the "old coinflip debate" (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=843788&amp;page=7&amp;view=co llapsed&amp;sb=7&amp;o=all&amp;vc=1)

[/ QUOTE ]

Errrm. I'm not sure how I see Bozeman's particular points apply here. I think Phil brings up a very reasonable concern about not being able to exercise much of an edge on future hands. I think his move is dependent on the range of hands one can reasonably put the villian on. If it's wide, you may need to call here.

If you fold. What is your plan?? Are you really going to find FE spots that make up for folding here??

Yugoslav
If Phil's math is right this looks like a call...I'm not sure you can pass it up given the chip stack configuration (unless you know something about the two smallish stacks behind you being very tight).

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course, all of these things are accounted for in the ICM. Depending on the villain's hand, calling increases your ICM from 12.7 to 14 or 15. This is significant.

What do you think of these results?

[/ QUOTE ]

In general, if your $EV math says there's that much of an increase, then you must make that move (unless of course you think BB might make that move).

And back to BB, before your decision, he is getting 2.1 pot odds to call. (I know, I know, we can't assume he will make the correct move.) Furthermore, if you throw some chips in the pot, he is now getting 3.5:1 pot odds.

So, your plan consists of one of two choices:
1) Call, and hope BB doesn't call, and hope you win (a solid choice). What makes this potentially ugly is if BB decides to join. Then I'm positive that makes this -$EV.

2) Fold, and hope UTG steals blinds, or hope, BB calls and UTG wins. Following this hand you WILL have FE against both UTG and MP, IMO. And I would lean into both of these if I had the chance. What makes this strategy tricky is if BB folds on this hand.

Side note:
I narrowed your range down to any pair, any two broadway, and the $EV analysis returns 13.2%. Still a positive decision.

I'm now torn, but still leaning toward a fold. If you were the BB, this is a "have to" IMO.

Regarding the Old Coinflip Debate:
I only post it as to it's relevance regarding +CEV vs. +$EV. I believe it has relevance to pre-bubble play, from a conceptual standpoint. IMO, the point of the orginal thread involved stacksize relative to blindsize. Which is precisely what this discussion involves. (I guess that's the point of all this hand reviews...)

Scuba

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course, all of these things are accounted for in the ICM. Depending on the villain's hand, calling increases your ICM from 12.7 to 14 or 15. This is significant.

What do you think of these results?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Call, and hope BB doesn't call, and hope you win (a solid choice). What makes this potentially ugly is if BB decides to join. Then I'm positive that makes this -$EV.


[/ QUOTE ]

One thing not accounted for in your $EV/ICM equation is the probability that BB will also play. This probability is the equalizer to the problem, otherwise, as I stated earlier, this is a call. Perhaps Eastbay can enlighten us as to how to do this math. I'm interested in learning, if he's interested in teaching.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing not accounted for in your $EV/ICM equation is the probability that BB will also play. This probability is the equalizer to the problem, otherwise, as I stated earlier, this is a call. Perhaps Eastbay can enlighten us as to how to do this math. I'm interested in learning, if he's interested in teaching.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think its just more of the same math we've already done.

We already know 2 things:
- ICM if you fold=12.7
- ICM if you push and BB folds=13.5 through 15 depending range of hands for UTG.

Now we just need to know how often BB will call, and how often you win when the BB calls....oh great, UTG and BB have different stack sizes, so it will be slighty different depending on who beats you. This sucks.

Anyway, the BB is getting great odds, but you see people make terrible folds here all the time. It will be hard to put him on a range of hands.

People get tripped up over the 50% number. It doesn't matter that he's getting 3.5-to-1 to call, if he think's he only has a 35% chance to win, he'll probably fold. This is wrong of course, but it's true at the 30s.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I think its just more of the same math we've already done.

[/ QUOTE ]

Those were my assumptions, but don't know if we need a ^ to do any calcs ever.

Then, why not assume a 25% probability that BB calls, and choose a very narrow calling range.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think its just more of the same math we've already done.

[/ QUOTE ]

Those were my assumptions, but don't know if we need a ^ to do any calcs ever.

Then, why not assume a 25% probability that BB calls, and choose a very narrow calling range.

[/ QUOTE ]

25%? Thats too easy.

Here are my assumptions. When you BB calls, you win 30% of the time. UTG and BB each win 35% of the time. If UTG wins, hero and BB are 50/50 to win the side pot.

Looking at PokerStove, this is pretty conservative, I think. You should do better than 30%.

Anyway, your ICM when BB calls is 0.12. Remember folding was .127.

Equation is (0.2833 * .3) + (0.044 * .35) + (0.07 * .175) + (0.0433 * .175) = 0.12

My ICM when BB folded was 0.151. So...
(0.151 * .75) + (0.12 * .25) = .143

If BB calls 50%, it's 0.135

Your ICM with super tight UTG was 0.132.
At 25% call, that's 0.129.
At 50% call, that's 0.126.

Again, folding is 0.127.

Therefore, there may be hand ranges where this is a fold. This is why I posted it. I really had no idea at the time.

I still think it's a call. If you think its a fold, I don't really have a problem with it. However, if you see this hand and say "fold" without putting any thought into it, there is a problem.

It seems that a lot of people learned from Aleo's guide and it takes lots of calculations to convince them that calling with anything below JJ might be correct. At least Scuba is willing to consider this alternative.

As someone who plays a lot of side games, I immediately recognized calling with 55 as a +EV situation. I then do some quick estimates in my head to determine if its +$EV. I need a legitimate reason to turn down +EV situations. Quite often, I will find one and fold, but I'll look first.

I think other people see 55 and immediately think "fold". If they even consider an alternative, it takes a lot of evidence to change their mind.

It's not about calling and folding. It's about $EV, and you can't determine the $EV without first determining EV.

If you think you can determine $EV without first determining the EV, you are either much smarter than me, or you are doing things wrong.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems that a lot of people learned from Aleo's guide and it takes lots of calculations to convince them that calling with anything below JJ might be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
When calling down shortstack all-ins, you want to have AT-AK and pairs 77-AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was from Aleo's guide. It was referring to when there were 4 left, but he didn't have the space to break out when more people are left, but blinds are still high.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It seems that a lot of people learned from Aleo's guide and it takes lots of calculations to convince them that calling with anything below JJ might be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
When calling down shortstack all-ins, you want to have AT-AK and pairs 77-AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was from Aleo's guide. It was referring to when there were 4 left, but he didn't have the space to break out when more people are left, but blinds are still high.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good catch. I didn't mean to put down the guide, so I probably shouldn't even have mentioned it without checking what it actually said.

Maybe people misinterpretted the guide, or got their ideas from elsewhere, or maybe I was exaggerating.

[microbet]

There have been a few discussions lately of bubble situations where there is a tiny stack and hero is not a big stack where you needed a very strong hand to call.