Dragged along, scraping, clawing in a monster pot

[private joker]

MP1 is 91/13/0.8 in 200 hands. I love this guy. Rest of the table is sort of weird, but not very good. No specific reads really on anyone else.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (21 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (15.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, SB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

River: (22.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 25.50 BB

[bakku]

ugh this hand makes my head spin. i dunno, i dont think u can overcall on the river.

[gaming_mouse]

I think I'd fold the flop.

On the turn, your flush outs are no good, but you do have 6 outs to a boat. Problem is the A outs are almost certainly to a chop, and maybe the Q outs too. Let's give you 4.5 outs. With the threat of a likely raise behind you, I think you can fold the turn too.

On the river, you are almost certainly beat, but now the pot is so enormous that I won't argue with your call, though I wouldn't argue with a fold either.

[private joker]

I guess I should also say that while those stats are what I had on MP1, his play has been far more maniacal than that in this session. He's insane.

[oreogod]

Makes my head spin to. 15.5 BB on the turn. I think at this point with the 3rd five u can give up on the flush. As any pair beats u. I think at the most u have 3 outs (the aces) and those are probably not even full or clean outs (as they most likely lead to a chopped pot).

Say they are clean outs. On the turn u have 3 outs. 14.4:1 to make your hand, you are getting 15.5:1 from the pot -- but the action thus far, I think it is easy to determine you will get raised. I say fold the turn. If u get raised you are putting to much in for your hand (as your outs have more of a value of 1.5 -- .5 for each Ace as u may be heading to a chopped pot, or beaten by AA already)

I think u have to fold the turn.

[private joker]

How can you fold the flop? The pot has 21sb to start the street, I have to call one bet, and I have 2 overcards, a backdoor nut flush draw, and even a backdoor wheel.

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I'd fold the flop.

On the turn, your flush outs are no good, but you do have 6 outs to a boat. Problem is the A outs are almost certainly to a chop, and maybe the Q outs too. Let's give you 4.5 outs. With the threat of a likely raise behind you, I think you can fold the turn too.

On the river, you are almost certainly beat, but now the pot is so enormous that I won't argue with your call, though I wouldn't argue with a fold either.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think u can assign any outs to the Qs. At the most I would value them as 1 out. I think his hand total if I was playing the hand is worth about 2.5 outs. At the most and thats being generous.

Edit: I am talking in the turn. On the flop I say he has about 4.5 outs, round it to 4 most likely.

[Evan]

I already told Private Joker this, so i'm just posting it for others to think about. The liklihood of needing to put in more than 1 bet to see the river is important.

[oreogod]

Evan,
You mean that in an ominous sense right? As in not good.

My first post that is one of the reasons u have to fold the turn. I dont think it is weak or tight. I think its the correct play.

I think the flop call is good, you're getting mucho odds from the pot for your hand, you are covered up until the turn-of-events that is the turn.

[private joker]

I don't think you guys are taking the read of MP1 into consideration. He's capping PF with anything if he's playing. UTG has any range of reasonable PF raising hands, most of which are worse than AQs. The other callers are just along for the ride in a big pot. It's highly likely I am not up against AA and KK.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
How can you fold the flop? The pot has 21sb to start the street, I have to call one bet, and I have 2 overcards, a backdoor nut flush draw, and even a backdoor wheel.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because your b/d outs are really the only solid ones, IMO, and there is very likely going to be a raise behind you. So the pot is realistically offering you 2:24, or 1:12. I'd give you 1 out per overcard. Your perfect-perfect wheel draw is worth only about 1/3 of an out, not 1.5 like a normal backdoor. So you are looking at 4 outs at most. So I guess you do have odds to call. But I may have been too generous by assigning you 1 out per overcard, and I still think it's much closer than you think.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you guys are taking the read of MP1 into consideration. He's capping PF with anything if he's playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay. You didn't say that in the OP. His stats, especially the reasonable PFR and passive AF, do not suggest a player like the one you describe above.

[oreogod]

GM,
True 4.5 outs on the flop is generous. But even at 3.5 he has just enough to take one off.

Its close though, I will completely agree, but the pot is large and even with the raise, IF it does come he still has odds.

TO OP: GM is right, this guy in control of the hand is not the one u described stats wise. Lol. That should tell u something.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]


Okay. You didn't say that in the OP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know, but I did say it two posts below the OP.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
GM,
True 4.5 outs on the flop is generous. But even at 3.5 he has just enough to take one off.

Its close though, I will completely agree, but the pot is large and even with the raise, IF it does come he still has odds.

TO OP: GM is right, this guy in control of the hand is not the one u described stats wise. Lol. That should tell u something.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, the flop call is easy if this guy is a maniac. and probably correct even if he isn't. but it's still somewhat close in that case, as you say.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Okay. You didn't say that in the OP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know, but I did say it two posts below the OP.

[/ QUOTE ]

i missed that when i responded before.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you guys are taking the read of MP1 into consideration. He's capping PF with anything if he's playing. UTG has any range of reasonable PF raising hands, most of which are worse than AQs. The other callers are just along for the ride in a big pot. It's highly likely I am not up against AA and KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

against UTG your overcard outs are almost always good here unless he's really passive and/or hasnt noticed MP1's donkishness. he played his hand like a small/medium pair and i'd say over 90% of the time it's JJ at best. if MP1 really could have just about anything here folding would be bad. yes, i took into consideration that MP1 might raise the turn.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]

against UTG your overcard outs are almost always good here unless he's really passive and/or hasnt noticed MP1's donkishness. he played his hand like a small/medium pair and i'd say over 90% of the time it's JJ at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a very good point. However, I still there's a good chance MP1 has either an A or Q, and UTG could have QQ, so you only have 4-5 outs. But that probably is enough to call, even if we knew for sure MP1 was raising.

Also, your read is a strong argument for a fold on the river.

[private joker]

I think you guys are right that I have to fold the river, and I probably could have found a turn fold -- but these opponents were so bad, I didn't want to get bought out of a huge pot.

Since I have to go to bed, I'll post results early. Hopefully it won't kill discussion of the hand. I was closer to winning than I thought -- UTG had AQo (can't believe I overcalled with a better hand) and MP1 had 22 for the winner. Yeah, he cold-capped 22.

[Bascule]

[ QUOTE ]
How can you fold the flop? The pot has 21sb to start the street, I have to call one bet, and I have 2 overcards, a backdoor nut flush draw, and even a backdoor wheel.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can fold the flop because UTG probably has you beat and the maniac is likely to raise behind you. After the flop call, I can see how you called the rest of the way. Given the way it played out, did UTG have AK and the maniac a random boat?

[Edit: Well, I was close. Another thought: it's probably a good idea to discount your backdoor flush and wheel draws with a pair on the board.]

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you guys are right that I have to fold the river, and I probably could have found a turn fold -- but these opponents were so bad, I didn't want to get bought out of a huge pot.

Since I have to go to bed, I'll post results early. Hopefully it won't kill discussion of the hand. I was closer to winning than I thought -- UTG had AQo (can't believe I overcalled with a better hand) and MP1 had 22 for the winner. Yeah, he cold-capped 22.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, I had a feeling you were headed for a chop if u got your ace. MP1 though, I was actually thinking he may have hit the 3 on the flop or had a small pair (seen in happen many times where they go crazy with any pair). UTG was the one I was worried about. KK-QQ I think u get more action on the later streets. I really felt a chop coming if u hit the ace. Makes perfect sense with AQo.

[JoshuaD]

I think you gotta chuck it on the turn. 9:1 is great, but I don't think you have more than 3 outs, and that's just not enough.