capped pre-flop, fold to a flop bet

[cassady]

Recently dropped back down to 2/4 after some major pain at 3/6.

Only seen MP1 for about 30 hands. He's seen 16% of flops, and raised preflop 3.3%.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. UTG+1 posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 5.75 BB

Anyone see anything other than a fold here?

[KDawgCometh]

porque? You should take one off comsidering the pot size. Granted he could have AA or KK but considering his stats you could use a non King or Ace heart as a good bluffing opportunity. I think AKs or QQ is just as likely with him too

[cassady]

See, I think the odds of being dominated here are just too high. Suppose an A or K comes down, and I fire out? I'd still probably have to fold to a raise in this position.

Then again, this line of reasoning smacks of weak-tight. Maybe my recent beating at 3/6 has had an effect on me.

[Niediam]

Easy call on the flop. I'm even debating the merits of raising here..

[Fnord]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call on the flop. I'm even debating the merits of raising here..

[/ QUOTE ]

[oreogod]

Okay

Against the following, AK has:
JJ 6 outs
QQ 6 outs
KK 3 outs
AA No outs

2/3 of time u have 6 outs 1/3 u have 3 outs. Weighted average is 4.5 outs. I think its safe to assume the board did not touch him, unless it gave him a backdoor flush as well to his over pair. You have enough outs to at least take one off (4.5 outs is about 9:1) but you should definitly raise it, with the intention of getting a free card on the turn. Some would even say cap it is the best play (because it could buy u a free turn card if he has KK-JJ. Even AQ, doubt he has that though)

Fold was a little weak, but I can see why. AQ would be a fold to a flop bet unless one of its suit was a heart giving u a backdoor flush draw.

The pot is decent size almost 11sb, if it was say, 3-5sb you should fold, small pot, no odds, risk to reward, not that great. Big pots u should stay in, see a turn if possible unless your hand is super weak.

EDIT: Wow, my post seems quite a bit like a post Chris Daddy Cool posted a few days ago. Oh well, the guy knows his stuff and is good at the game. Cant say i mind. lol.

[PokerSparky]

You have to call the flop bet at the very least. I'd probably raise with the intention of taking a free card on the turn unimproved.

If I get three-bet on the flop, I'm calling and folding to a turn bet unimproved.

[wrto4556]

I dont like raising without some draws besides overcards. It's an easy peel, imo...but raising seems like to much.

[Moozh]

Time for Mathman!

Anyone remember Mathman from an old PBS show Square One? For a guy who's name was Mathman, he sure was bad at math...

Opponents possible capping hands: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK

Ways to have the following hands:
AA - 3, KK - 3, QQ - 6, JJ - 6, AK - 9 (total of 27)

Taking Only One Off
We'll assume you fold if you miss and go to showdown for one bet on the turn and river each if you hit. No rivered sets to beat you from QQ or JJ. No flushes from AK.

- Against AA and KK you hit 8.5% of the time and lose 2.5bb if you do. (6/27)
- Against QQ and JJ you hit 12.8% of the time and win 8.25bb. (12/27)
- Against AK hit 8.5% of the time and win 3.125bb. (9/27)

So, this strategy gives us:

(6/27)(.085*-2.5+.915*-.5)+(12/27)(.128*8.25+.872*-.5)+(9/27)(.085*3.125+.915*-.5)

Which comes to 0.0607bb! That's positive my friends. Of course, we're simplifying this a bit. No re-suckouts and no flushes. We're also assuming you can get a bet on both the turn and river after you hit. Thus, in the end, it's a really close play.

I was going to do the case where you peel the turn if you miss too, but that's a lot more complicated and I think I'll save it for later.

Oh, and if you think he'll cap with anything else than what's shown here, this play is a definite winner.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call on the flop. I'm even debating the merits of raising here..

[/ QUOTE ]

Easy call, I don't like a raise -- It's too likely you'll be 3-bet.

[oreogod]

People may not like the Ak raise. Its ballsy, but if u get a free card, it would be a huge coup (even getting the free card is debatable, but with this play its never set in stone to work). Besides the fact that he himself could have AK-AQ , even KQs -- while its true to mark him with a pair it could be TT-KK with the Aces unlikely.

Here is another thread I where the merits of raising AK or debated:

Thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2060321&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp; o=&amp;vc=1)

It didnt work out in that one, but I loved the play (although capping seemed a little excessive) to try and get a free card.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call on the flop. I'm even debating the merits of raising here..

[/ QUOTE ]

raising this flop would be baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad. you're getting 3-bet here way too often.

[oreogod]

Hey guys, Im starting to sober up, went over some of my posts. I didnt even see the coordinate nature of the board. I call this flop. Not to mention, you are probably going to be hit for a 3-bet if u raise...god, I shouldnt post in this condition.

PS.It may not be close, but I almost think its still debatable to raise if there is no flush there.

[einbert]

That's a really bad fold.

You're getting like 11-1 and importantly, you're closing the action. You have to at least see the turn.

[meep_42]

I think I was at the table with you when you did this. I was really confused. (You were in the 9 or 10 seat, I think I was in 6 or 7, if i'm correct)

-d

[CallMeIshmael]

Call the flop.

There shouldnt be a debate here.

[cassady]

Maybe I'm giving his stats too much credit here, here as I've only seen him for 30 hands, but he was playing pretty tight. Preflop raise only once in three orbits, only seen the flop 16% of the time. All of a sudden he comes alive to cap me. And I'd been playing relatively tight myself, so I doubt it was just a raise thinking he'd isolated a loose player.

For these reasons, I did a quick, non-mathematical version of the analysis you did, except I didn't put him on AK and thought JJ was unlikely. So I guessed that calling was -EV.

Do you think I gave too much credence to the stats in restricting possible hands this way?

[cassady]

PS: Thanks for a great analysis of this play.

[flair1239]

I know this is 2/4, but anyone thinking metagame here? If it is relatively early in a seesion, do you really want to go away on the flop for one bet.

I think this is a wortthy consideration, because even at 2/4, some people pay attention. I know that I have and do take shots at people who I see suddenly fold.

Anyway I call the flop. If I had a backdoor draw, I would probably raise. On my worst days I would cap and bet the turn if checked to; it is this type of thinking that almost guarantees I will never be a 2BB/100 player.

[cassady]

Well, hopefuly you left the table early enough to miss me going 100% donk style at the end. It was kind of embarrassing.

[meep_42]

Sounds like my night.

2 flush over flush, laid down more winners than losers. Didn't win a single big pot. Rough.

-d

[Wepeel]

I think this fold is pretty bad. I mean if you were gonna fold this flop UI you mine as well have folded pf and saved yourself 4 sb knowing he could cap and hold something like AA or KK w/ a pf raise % of 3.3.

I thought about this and decided initially that a raise is the best option. But, now I realize it's not. If you raise and he folds, you lose out on a lot of money you could have won from him betting in to you with something like AQ here and about the only advantage raising has is he might fold AK so you might win the whole pot. I don't think with 30 hands you can put him on a cap with only the top 6 hands, lots of players cap when they get 3-bet to make it look like they have better cards.