$33 Call or fold?

[Scuba Chuck]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP1 (t1845)
MP2 (t620)
CO (t1120)
Button (t1310)
SB (t745)
BB (t1050)
Hero (t1310)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t620 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero .....

[Degen]

muck it...he could have an underpair but anything else and i'd rather move on w/ my 1150.

Degen

[The Yugoslavian]

What's your rationale behind raising 3xBB here UTG on level 3?

Yugoslav

[pooh74]

i voted call...but only bc you got urself in that mess in the first place...u backed urself right into getting good odds...gotta call. At least if you lose youll have easy decisions from there on in! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
What's your rationale behind raising 3xBB here UTG on level 3?


[/ QUOTE ]

I love level 3. My experience has been that it's very much like a "bubble" as many are just waiting for level 4 to commence. That being said, you're point about position is questionable I agree. My experience in general has been that I am taking down the blinds more than 50% of the time. But I don't have a lot of experience from the early positions...

[adanthar]

Folding here getting 2:1 is a very very bad play.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding here getting 2:1 is a very very bad play.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I was thinking about at the table (although I think it's a little less than 2:1). My subsequent thought was, what range of hands would villain push with here?

My thoughts were AQs, AK, pairs 77+. Do you agree? Disagree, then what are your thoughts? It would seem there's some math we could use to solve this.

Scuba

[Degen]

calling 470 to win 845 1.76:1

but what about the crippling effect of watching your stack fall to 680 if you lose? I guess the pot odds point is a good one...but i dunno if this is an auto call.


Degen

[curtains]

I don't think it's a very easy call either. For example, If I reraised you there, there is almost no chance you are dominating me (Maybe its slightly possible I'd have 88, but doubtful I'd push that against an UTG 3X BB raiser) and quite good chances you are being dominated (Note I wouldnt raise with AJ or KQ or anything here so its basically AK-AQ or TT-AA, not sure what the math behind that is). Meanwhile there are serious differences between having 1100 chips and 600-700 chips.

This doesn't mean that I think calling is bad, but I don't think folding is a terrible play by any means.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding here getting 2:1 is a very very bad play.

[/ QUOTE ]

i always see you playing the odds. tell me about a situation in which odds should be thrown out the window in your eyes.

[Stoneii]

How did he get to 620 - loose play/bad beat? This would affect my decision. Did you have a plan as to what you'd do if reraised by certain players when making the UTG raise?

stoneii

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
How did he get to 620 - loose play/bad beat? This would affect my decision. Did you have a plan as to what you'd do if reraised by certain players when making the UTG raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't recall, but his stack, IMO, reflects the situation I'm often in when an early level AK raise fails to complete.

Furthermore, his play here **smells** like AK (which might be biased, as this looks like a Scuba play).

[Voltron87]

I just call this BB preflop, or raise a bit more. 150 always seemed like an awkward bet to me. Crazy ramblings aside I don't see how you can fold here to only 620 with 150 in the pot.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]

there is almost no chance you are dominating me (Maybe its slightly possible I'd have 88, but doubtful I'd push that against an UTG 3X BB raiser) and quite good chances you are being dominated (Note I wouldnt raise with AJ or KQ or anything here so its basically AK-AQ or TT-AA, not sure what the math behind that is).


[/ QUOTE ]

you give these guys WAY too much credit. this is a 33 right? i don't give 55 guys this much credit, i'm certainly not putting a 33er on this range of hands only. i'd wager about 1/3 of them actually know what UTG stands for much less be able to apply it. if i have a note that the guy is solid, then it becomes an easier fold, but until then, i'm calling this all day and twice on katillsday.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

there is almost no chance you are dominating me (Maybe its slightly possible I'd have 88, but doubtful I'd push that against an UTG 3X BB raiser) and quite good chances you are being dominated (Note I wouldnt raise with AJ or KQ or anything here so its basically AK-AQ or TT-AA, not sure what the math behind that is).


[/ QUOTE ]

you give these guys WAY too much credit. this is a 33 right? i don't give 55 guys this much credit, i'm certainly not putting a 33er on this range of hands only. i'd wager about 1/3 of them actually know what UTG stands for much less be able to apply it. if i have a note that the guy is solid, then it becomes an easier fold, but until then, i'm calling this all day and twice on katillsday.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, i agree...anyone who says fold getting 2-1 is nuts here. I agree he made an ill advised PF raise perhaps w/ 99 (given his po, # OF PLAYERS LEFT) but the with villain's stack...I d say he was just waiting for a paint card...of course he might be dominated, but he's getting 2-1!!!

[KingMedicine]

without any great evidence that the pusher is a moron, i limp then fold.

there are a few hands you're dominating that pusher could have (maybe, at best 55-88), but i think its more likely 1010+ or maybe AK. you dumped 150 chips but youre still in decent shape. just fold and chalk it up to a bad UTG raise and learn the lesson the cheap way.

if you were to call the push and win the hand, it would reinforce you to make bad UTG raises.

btw, i've been playing a lot of these 33s with you lately and your game is very very sharp, which is why i was surprised at the UTG raise with 99 in that level.

[pooh74]

if you were to call the push and win the hand, it would reinforce you to make bad UTG raises.

Although with the best of intentions, that's just wrong and bad advice. I would say the opposite..."if he folds, it would reinforce making bad raises and laying down when the odds are overwhelmingly in his favor"

This isnt about being punished for bad moves. Its about making the correct choices once you've made them...he made his bed, now he has to go in because he its just simply -EV not to do so...yes, chip EV and $EV. Behaviorism and punishment for bad acts has no role in poker, making the right play given the situation that's presented to you does...whether you put yourself there or not.


p

[curtains]

I'm not giving the guy way too much credit, Im just showing that if you know who the player is the play isn't always so obvious. Obviously the idiot could be sitting there with pocket fours. Also note that I'd probably call, but I really wouldn't be happy about it.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
i always see you playing the odds. tell me about a situation in which odds should be thrown out the window in your eyes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hands that affect folding equity (this isn't really one of them), hands where folding moves you up a spot ITM (every forum regular should know what those are), hands where you have a great read on someone's play (I don't post those and don't expect any of them to be posted since you can't get much out of them), and hands where calling or folding are very close but (for example) folding leaves you more chips early or calling gives you a better table image.

Otherwise, I go by the math. Math is a good thing.

[Degen]

i get to 620 all the time from playing tight...and unless i recognize him as having been in a bunch of pots...i usually assume this

people are making it seem like the 33'ers play bad and sloppy. they just play weak-tight. they aren't bad. there are like 2-4 fish in each event and 4-6 guys who play a decent weak-tight brand of poker. they try and grind into 3rd. i would have to put this guy on being one of them with no other info to go on and those guys DO NOT make this raise with less than AK, AQs or TT-AA.

The blinds are at 25/50...he's not in desperation mode.


Degen

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
people are making it seem like the 33'ers play bad and sloppy. they just play weak-tight. they aren't bad. there are like 2-4 fish in each event and 4-6 guys who play a decent weak-tight brand of poker. they try and grind into 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's precisely my estimation of the $33s.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
without any great evidence that the pusher is a moron, i limp then fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess with the size of my stack, I could limp in here, but in general I think limping on level 3 is a mistake. Perhaps mini-raise is a better move.

I think there would be some serious benefit to more level 3 strategy play on this forum, as there is an enormous opportunity to pick up 75-225 chips on average in this round.

Scuba

[kyro]

Well yes, if you know who the player is then a fold COULD be warranted. I was assuming we were discussing an unknown here.

And FWIW, I'd probably raise 99 here too. It's always nice to find a leak. Now where's that wrench...

[pokerlaw]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm not giving the guy way too much credit, Im just showing that if you know who the player is the play isn't always so obvious. Obviously the idiot could be sitting there with pocket fours.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed that the read on the player is paramount. Given the situation here, I think it is an easy call, due to the created pot odds, barring a read that the player is solid. I do like the idea of a mini-raise here, on the 25-50 level at party, people start tightening up and MRes can narrow the field significantly.

[EasilyFound]

Pardon my instrusion, but its time for a Romper Room poker question: anytime you're getting 2-1 pot odds, the play is to call, even if you think you're behind?

And then what is the analysis once the flop hits and you happen to miss your set? I ask to see how that fits into the odds. In other words, 2-1 odds justify seeing a flop, but no further if you miss the flop? Is that the analysis?

[J-Lo]

[ QUOTE ]
Pardon my instrusion, but its time for a Romper Room poker question: anytime you're getting 2-1 pot odds, the play is to call, even if you think you're behind?

And then what is the analysis once the flop hits and you happen to miss your set? I ask to see how that fits into the odds. In other words, 2-1 odds justify seeing a flop, but no further if you miss the flop? Is that the analysis?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are gettin 2:1 and have money left behind, usually fold w/o a monster.

What they are talking about is callin all-in situations where u are gettin 2:1, because you are usually not less than a 33% favorite, thus making is chipEV

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Pardon my instrusion, but its time for a Romper Room poker question: anytime you're getting 2-1 pot odds, the play is to call, even if you think you're behind?

And then what is the analysis once the flop hits and you happen to miss your set? I ask to see how that fits into the odds. In other words, 2-1 odds justify seeing a flop, but no further if you miss the flop? Is that the analysis?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this has nothing to do with flopping a set etc...it is more or less taking all the possible hands your opponent would do this with, hands your a 55% favor against (over cards) hands your a 80% favor (underpair) 20% (overpair), the small chance he is on a bluff (two undercards...72) and in the end, given you're getting 2-1 and a rudamentary analysis of the possible holdings leaves you near 50-50 in my experience so this is a call...esp considering this is coming from a shortstack who may be making moves, the odds may increase in your favor that you are ahead.

hope that helps...it didnt make sense to me either.

[shejk]

I agree with you here scuba, I have been employing this in my strategy lately as well. But I pick my spots... and I really don't like playing medium pockets. If I get postflop action with 66-JJ, I want position.

A discussion on this would be nice.