Folding overpair

[Freudian]

Villain is a solid player. I folded instantly when he bet all-in. Is it too weak? I figure I am beaten more than 2/3 or the time here.

If it had been a very loose player, does it alter the situation?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t885)
Hero (t800)
UTG+2 (t800)
MP1 (t960)
MP2 (t790)
MP3 (t655)
CO (t775)
Button (t805)
SB (t730)
BB (t800)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t45</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls t45, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls t30.

Flop: (t145) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t110</font>, MP3 folds, BB calls t110.

Turn: (t365) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t645 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t1010

[lastchance]

I, personally, could almost never laydown KK without an ace on the board. Unless this solid player is really good and tight early, I don't fold. If BB is loose, the call becomes a no-brainer.

[Degen]

thats pretty tight...but i make folds like that often

you have plenty to go on...no sense busting now...even fishy players make that move and i'll fold...i take betting into me on the turn as two pair....he just hit two pair....or flopped a set and now that its heads up he'll bet into you.

Nice fold.

Degen

[Degen]

this is very very very bad advice

Degen

[lutefisk]

Primarily, I would say to raise larger PF. I like the 3x later on, but I've found that in the early rounds, you almost need to bet 75-100 chips with your excellent hands to get the information you need, and to drive out people just looking for draws. Then, when the flop comes without an A, you're looking really good against anyone who called that much PF.

My thoughts post flop are contingent on the confidence of your read. This early in a game, I'm not sure I'd have that much confidence, but if you had previous notes on the guy, it may make sense. Also, if this was a $50 or greater, that may matter. I play at lower levels, and think that you will win this call more often than you will lose at those tables. So, I'd call unless I was confident that this player wouldn't do this with just top pair. I could totally see someone taking this line with AQ or even KQ. Just my opinion there.

[lehighguy]

If he is VERY loose (especially if this is low buy-in) I call. BTW, make this hand easier by raising more. I'd rather have everyone fold then be playing this hand out of posistion against many callers.

Also, think before folding, even if you consider it auto fold. Don't give people the impression they can push you arround. They will remember it come blind stealing time.

[Valuebettingtheriver]

In a cash game Id make the call, but in a tournament Id pick a better spot. He could have QA, but since its early in the tournament I presume you dont have solid reads on the player. For that reason Id fold, and watch him/her closely to see what type of player he/she is. Raise more preflop

[Freudian]

I phrased it poorly. I meant to say I decided to fold instantly. I try to take the same time for action no matter what (with the inevitable variance that comes with mutlitabling).

And you are probably right about raising more preflop. Against players like this, I think there is a good chance he will lay down TT for a larger bet (this was the second or third hand in the SnG). This guy is normally very tight about betting all his chips in level 1.

The problem with big raises preflop with AA, KK etc in level one is that you start to doubt the sanity of the strategy after picking up the blinds a few times in a row. Getting the balance right is hard sometimes.

[ReDeYES88]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with big raises preflop with AA, KK etc in level one is that you start to doubt the sanity of the strategy after picking up the blinds a few times in a row.

[/ QUOTE ] = +t45. ..this play = -t155

..understand that your ideal situation is to get chips in the middle PF with a solid bet, and play HU against a very strong hand that is second best. After villan calls a solid PF raise, it allows you to narrow the range of hands they are on and simplifies your post-flop play.

Another good reason to make a solid PF bet from EP in the first few hands of the tourney is to give you a read on the relative tightness/looseness of the table.

What hand did you put him on before you folded? (and would he still have played that hand for +/- t75 PF?)

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The problem with big raises preflop with AA, KK etc in level one is that you start to doubt the sanity of the strategy after picking up the blinds a few times in a row.

[/ QUOTE ] = +t45. ..this play = -t155

..understand that your ideal situation is to get chips in the middle PF with a solid bet, and play HU against a very strong hand that is second best. After villan calls a solid PF raise, it allows you to narrow the range of hands they are on and simplifies your post-flop play.

Another good reason to make a solid PF bet from EP in the first few hands of the tourney is to give you a read on the relative tightness/looseness of the table.

What hand did you put him on before you folded? (and would he still have played that hand for +/- t75 PF?)

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't evaluate a strategy from a single hand. Today I have doubled up in level one three times with overpairs. Just liked the situations more than I did here.

The hand where his play makes most sense to me is TT (possibly 44 and QQ), if he was scared of the board at the turn and didn't want to risk it being checked through if he would attempt a checkraise. Thus the bet he would have to make to protect himself from a draw is large enough to warrant him going all-in on the turn. I don't think he would play AQ that way, but of course I may be wrong.

Anyway, it's not particularly for his sake I would stick to 3BB bet here. It is for all the other level 1 players that are willing to call the bet with much worse hands (that they would fold if the bet was 5BB).

Anyway, I am not saying my play here is optimal and I would definately have an easier time playing against solid players if I increased the bet preflop.

[lehighguy]

Either limp raise alot in that posistion preflop. Limping keeps the pot small and disguises the value of your hand. Raising alot probably gets it down to heads up.

If you are playing at a limit where a guy would do that with AQ, then you are playing at a limit where the guy will call 80-100 with AQ. Even if you limp it's better. It's easier to walk away from a 60 chip pot when someone all ins for 700. And if you get raised now you can re-raise preflop. This middle level raise just seems like the worst to me.

[jcm4ccc]

You're the only one who knows if this is a good play since you are the only one who has a read on this player. Absent a read, I would certainly call this.

I would question why he would overbet the turn if he can beat KK --

[adanthar]

I won't say I've never made folds like that to plays like that. I have, two or three times, and been right two or three times.

However, I would never make that fold in any Party tournament that starts with under 1000 chips.

[Freudian]

Might fear a /images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ or /images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/spade.gifK checking on the turn. Of course it is also possible that he has one of those two hands and is semibluffing.

There is no such thing as a 100% read and it is entirely possible he played AQ this way and I folded the best hand. I think he would raise TPTK on a two-suited flop, but you never know.

[Sam T.]

Your opponent is not a solid player. He calls a (relatively small) pre-flop raise, and then a respectable flop bet. A brick hits, and he bets 2x the pot? There is no hand that would justify this kind of play.

I'm honestly pretty surprised by what I'm reading here. Fold KK on a board like this? What exactly do you put him on?

AA? Not if he's any good. No way he doesn't re-raise you PF.

QQ or another set? I guess it's possible, but it doesn't explain the massive overbet on the turn.

J9? Again possible, but why the massive overbet? Is he THAT scared of a flush?

This turn bet says "Please fold!" and I'm calling it all day long (esp. at the 11s).

Sam

[Pokerscott]

I call this in a heartbeat.

That is too big a bet in my opinion for a made straight. He might have 2 pair, but TPGK is much more likely in my mind. Calling your bet and taking the pot away from you on the turn is a pretty standard play. He might be putting you on a missed Ax and thinking you made a continuation bet. He might also have a straight/flush draw and is making a semi bluff.

In any event, absent a rock solid, no doubt, take it to the bank read, I think calling here is hugely +EV.

Pokerscott

[soLit]

Depending on how you know hes solid, I think he has either has the Flush draw with 2 overcards giving him 14 outs.
The straight/flush draw giving him 15 outs.
Or he has 2 pair
Or a set.
Maybe a pair with the flush draw.

In all these cases he is about 60% to improve by the river.

I think a fold is correct. But I do think you are ahead of him on the flop, but he is more then even money to go all in here.

Good lay.

[soLit]

And anytime I hit a flop this hard, I PUSH while im still ahead statistically, and I do usually come out on top by the river.

This is assuming he is what you said " a good player " and he knows his outs etc.

[Pokerscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Depending on how you know hes solid, I think he has either has the Flush draw with 2 overcards giving him 14 outs.
The straight/flush draw giving him 15 outs.


In all these cases he is about 60% to improve by the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

He folded on the turn. 14/15 outs is not 60% to improve...

Pokerscott

[ReDeYES88]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he has either has the Flush draw with 2 overcards giving him 14 outs.


[/ QUOTE ] So this means he has A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/spade.gif? Check the deck. 14 outs on the turn= ~30/70

[ QUOTE ]
The straight/flush draw giving him 15 outs.


[/ QUOTE ] Either KJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif or J9/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Solid PF raise helps to chase these hands out. 15 outs on the turn= ~35/65.

[ QUOTE ]
Or he has 2 pair

[/ QUOTE ] QTx? Q8x? T8x? Again, a solid PF raise helps to chase these hands out.

[ QUOTE ]
Or a set.

[/ QUOTE ] Perhaps. A set might tend to lead bet to a two flush flop, or check/reraise, but neither of those things happened.

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe a pair with the flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]. So this most likely would be A4/images/graemlins/spade.gif or A8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Again (again), a solid PF raise helps to chase these hands out.

[ QUOTE ]
In all these cases he is about 60% to improve by the river.


[/ QUOTE ] So you added all of the above percentages together and came up with 60%? By my math you gotta have about 28 outs when behind on the turn to be a 60% fave.

"...Pleasant Fun...
Straightforward Satire"


http://www.machineworks.org/images/movies/titles/m/monsterinthecloset.jpg

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
this is very very very bad advice


[/ QUOTE ]

There is MUCH worse advice in this thread. Call here is automatic in an $11-$33.

[NegativeEV]

In an $11-$33 this is a call absent a PERFECT read to the contrary. No question.