Status of the $80,000,000 Game

[Hold'me]

Status of the $80,000,000 Game (http://cardplayer.com/barry-blog/?id=17&PHPSESSID=97cf09ec9109dcb399853a9cce913c7b)

We were last left thinking this game had a good chance of going forward. Beal had phoned me and said he wanted to make it happen and was accepting all of the major deal points from the Brunson offer.

So, it seemed like an equitable game was in place, and may the best side win!

Even though Beal is a very nice and smart guy, and has become one of the great heads-up Limit Hold’em players, he has an ego that (by his own admission) rivals that of Phil Hellmuth!

We all know that the “real” money in poker these days is in TV. This game has major TV written all over it (not to mention the potential for DVD-sales after-the-fact)!

Beal wants control of the distribution rights in case he loses and feels humiliated.

Via crossed e-mails, Brunson and I came up with the same idea: what if each side put-up $40,000,000 and the LOSER were to receive the Distribution Rights? This way, if Beal wins he gets the money and the ego satisfaction while the Brunson has the option of recouping a significant part of their cost by selling the footage of the match and then producing a DVD with voice-over narration, instructional “how-to” pointers, and other extras.

If Beal were to lose, he could kill the TV while Brunson walks away the happy winner of $40,000,000.

It seemed like the proverbial win-win.

Beal obstinately turned this down flat, without any conversation about a fair split. He said he must have not only full-control, but also 100% of all distribution rights if he were to play – regardless of the outcome.

This is not equitable, and Beal knows it. It’s simply his way of showing the world that he’s the aggressor who wants to play by forcing the Brunson group into a defensive position where they have no choice but to say “No.”

Beal is the one who killed it; not Brunson.

[Bradyams]

Almost looks like Beal is just trying to make the game not happen so it appears Brunson is scared of him.

Ridiculous, I would have loved to see this.

[JRegs]

I bet Beal will back down eventually. That compromise is completely fair.

[Hold'me]

Would have made one heck of a DVD set if it was ever released. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[duker41]

I don't know how much the rights to those tapes could be worth, but if you decked them out as DVDs (all hands, full commentary, tips on plays, etc. from the players involved) and put it on TV (ESPN, NBC, whatever) could that get close to or exceed 40 million?

[trying2learn]

the loser owning the rights makes perfect sense and is a fair deal for sure. if he (beal) doesn't come around on this point he's the one who'll end up looking bad.

[TheShootah]

I agree....he is pretty much acting like a sickenly rich baby! /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[threeonefour]

i think Beal's demands are perfectly reasonable...

he is at a disadvantage because he has to play 8 oppenants and they only have to study one... as a result I think its only fair that some of the fringe issues swing beal's way to compensate.

[Freudian]

Not even close to that, is my guess. I think this one is much harder to sell to television compared to WSOP.

[SoftcoreRevolt]

Didn't Beal get the right to refuse his opponent?

[TheShootah]

He gets to pick!

[bugstud]

I think that getting the first 40M back then some sort of split is substantially more reasonable that suggested. The loser probably stands to win more...

[SNOWBALL138]

I don't understand why the Corporation needs a team. Does anyone believe that Beal could be a favorite over any members of the group?

Obviously, by combining their stake, they are better off to play for 40m, but do they really need to tag team Beal like this?

[Alex/Mugaaz]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why the Corporation needs a team. Does anyone believe that Beal could be a favorite over any members of the group?

Obviously, by combining their stake, they are better off to play for 40m, but do they really need to tag team Beal like this?

[/ QUOTE ]

As Sklansky pointed out before, yes. With Beal's resources he could very well be a favorite. For specifics how use the search function.

[SCfuji]

i agree. team brunson is going to play a series of HU matches which could lead to a series of DVDs. if they market the dvds and other merchandise well enough(whatever else they want to sell with this big match name on the product) the loser could end up making more than the 40M. these guys just need to split the money that any televised or recorded stuff sells and the loser of the game is just the loser. that is why they are having the match in the first place no?

[MrMon]

Uhh, do the math here people. There's no way the rights to this event are worth $40 million. $100 a set for DVDs means you'd have to sell 400,000 copies just to gross $40 million, let alone profit it. Has any poker book ever sold 400,000 copies, let alone a DVD that costs $100? And we're talking a limit game, right, not a no limit game, which people are more familiar with and is much more popular.

Even if you toss in broadcast rights, which dilute the worth of the DVDs, you're still not talking much. The WPT doesn't get that much from the Travel Channel. (Latest annual revenue numbers for WPTE are only $17.56 million)

The rights are worth something, but not nearly what you're speculating. The poker boom is about the casual player, not the people who want the inside scoop.

[pokergripes]

In fact, you don't even need to get to the DS analysis re variance and bankroll size (which was intended to show that Beal could be an overall favorite against the team) to answer your question. All you need to know is that Beal has now publicly claimed (on multipled occassions) to have a winning heads-up record against "a majority" of the players in question (despite conceding that he is a net loser overall against all of them in the aggregate), and neither Doyle nor (so far as I've heard) anyone else has disputed that. So, setting aside small sample size, he might actually be a favorite against some of them standing alone. Which is why the corporation would not let Beal pick the players (the final proposal was, I believe, that they pick who plays, but with the $8 million win limit imposed as a compromise by Beal).

And let's not get carried away with the "edge" a pro has in heads up lh, which is not all that complicated, and especially for a brilliant guy (Beal earns north of $500 million each year through his private bank doing really hard structured finance and value investing, from what I've read) who has played a ton of lh at these stakes over the past few years. (DS posted that he thinks a computer could be programmed to beat almost anyone with optimal strategy in heads up lh, where a tremendous amount of the poker complexity resulting from multi-way strategy and bet size has obviously been eliminated.) Why would Beal now be worse than any particular limit hold'em pro necessarily?

[the alex]

Don't forget Doyle's response:

The way I understand the latest version of your proposal for the big game, is if we can't be in Shreveport to play on April 11th, there can be no game. Even though we have essentially agreed on everything else, why is that date so important? We have waited months for you to respond and to wait 3 weeks more doesn't seem unreasonable. I personally will be out of the country until the 12th and when I return I am going to play at the Bellagio tournament.

If you want to wait and play, call me personally and let's talk. This is the last [at least for me] of these public challenges and negotiations. I feel this game is more important to you than it is to us. We gamble on an ongoing basis for more money than our part of the bankroll. Of course, there are a lot of us and only one of you, so it is understandable.

The bottom line is I feel this is getting out of hand and is making all parties involved look foolish. It is bordering on being ridiculous. Think about how stupid we must look to the average person. If we can't play now, come anytime to the gambling capital of the world and you WILL get played with. Lets ante up and play without all this fanfare.

Respectfully,

Doyle [Sleepless in Shreveport] Brunson

[Beerfund]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget Doyle's response:

The way I understand the latest version of your proposal for the big game, is if we can't be in Shreveport to play on April 11th, there can be no game. Even though we have essentially agreed on everything else, why is that date so important? We have waited months for you to respond and to wait 3 weeks more doesn't seem unreasonable. I personally will be out of the country until the 12th and when I return I am going to play at the Bellagio tournament.

If you want to wait and play, call me personally and let's talk. This is the last [at least for me] of these public challenges and negotiations. I feel this game is more important to you than it is to us. We gamble on an ongoing basis for more money than our part of the bankroll. Of course, there are a lot of us and only one of you, so it is understandable.

The bottom line is I feel this is getting out of hand and is making all parties involved look foolish. It is bordering on being ridiculous. Think about how stupid we must look to the average person. If we can't play now, come anytime to the gambling capital of the world and you WILL get played with. Lets ante up and play without all this fanfare.



Respectfully,

Doyle [Sleepless in Shreveport] Brunson

[/ QUOTE ]

Coming from Doyle, that's just gross. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[the alex]

Why's this gross? This isn't wrestling. It's poker. Beal's calling them out, he dangles them on a string, starts whining about the possiblility of getting embarrassed, and says to be in a certain city on the 11th.

[Beerfund]

The way it was worded you jackass. "Come to Vegas and you WILL get played with"sounds gay. How bout, come to Vegas and someone will play poker with you. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[the alex]

I see where you're coming from and calling me a jackass is as gross as this wording that you speak of. Now, if you knew me and I were playing cat and mouse over a heads up game, I would say that you're wording is justified.

The history of this story is well documented and had no problems until Beal was non-respondent and out of nowhere says that if they can't be in Shreveport on the 11th, there will be no game when Brunson and Co. said that they would play, but only at Bellagio.

They're not gonna leave Vegas to make someone famous through Barry Shulman's blog. Again, I ask, "Why is this gross?"

[ QUOTE ]
How bout, come to Vegas and someone will play poker with you.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't about public relations. These are not entertainers. They are poker players. It surprises you that a Texas road gambler would speak like this? Are you kidding me?

[Beerfund]

[ QUOTE ]
Again, I ask, "Why is this gross?"


[/ QUOTE ]

Do I need to draw you a picture? ARGGHHH, I know what he meant, I know that's just how he talks, I know he wasn't insuaiting that he wanted to molest Beal but it was funny because normal people don't freakin talk like that. I mearly pointed this out and you went off on some crazy tanget like a jackass, hence the use of the term.

P.S.
If you really do need a pic of Doyle "playing" with Beal I'm sure I could photoshop something.

[the alex]

[ QUOTE ]
Why's this gross? This isn't wrestling. It's poker. Beal's calling them out, he dangles them on a string, starts whining about the possiblility of getting embarrassed, and says to be in a certain city on the 11th.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry for this "tantrum." ^^^ /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I just never looked at professional gamblers at having etiquette standards. I'm always surprised when I come across gamblers that DO have great etiquette and DON'T take jabs at any spot that they can

[Seether]

Your just immature? Reading into someone's comments when it wasnt stated anywhere near that fashion is just being immature.

[Beerfund]

[ QUOTE ]
Your just immature? Reading into someone's comments when it wasnt stated anywhere near that fashion is just being immature.

[/ QUOTE ]

What? Huh? Are you...asking...... me a..... question....?

You're a jackass too?

[barryg1]

I wasn't going to respond to this thread because I can't disclose much of the negotiations. But I think it is necessary to state two things.

1. A match without hole cards isn't worth very much to the televsion networks these days. The estimates of its value are way off.

2. Andy has not been very unreasonable. There are real timing issues. We don't want to play during the Bellagio tournament, and Andy has plans in early May.

Barry

[U235]

With no hand cams, I think you are definitely correct that the broadcast rights would not be worth that much. I find the old WSOP's on ESPN Classic nearly unwatchable, and I am quite the poker junkie.

Thanks for chiming in Mr. Greenstein.