I lost just the right amount...Yes?

[Carmine]

Only two orbits. Villian is average player. Not a maniac.
Did I lose just the right amount or should I have not 3-bet the turn. When he raised the turn I was concerned and when he capped I knew.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 folds, CO calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls.

River: (12.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.75 BB

[Spicymoose]

No problems.

[flopmonster]

Played it good

[hate]

Am I the only one that doesn't like this unless I can fold to the cap?

[damaniac]

That seems like a good idea. Villain is not a maniac, so they probably aren't raising any 2-pair hands here (b/c they raised PF), more than likely they have a set. The question is whether they're going to have something like AK here often enough for us to call down. In theory, I think folding against a known standard/tight/passive player to be right. In practice, I don't know that I do it, or that most people do it.

[hate]

I know I can't do it, that's why I don't 3-bet the turn here.

[Moozh]

You can't fold to a turn cap. You have too many outs to spike a board pair to beat another two-pair on the river.

[hate]

If you think the board pairing will do anything other than give him quads or a boat, I think your reading skills need some improvement.

[Carmine]

Looking over this hand again. Once I 3-bet and it is capped I'm 90% sure he has a set and folding to the cap is the correct play unless the guy is a clown or known for pulling crap. Even calling the cap and folding the river UI is -ev because of odds. You need to hit your 2 outer 99.5% of the time unless he has loose raising standards(K7s).

I could just call it down after the raise, but I think you miss out on too many bets when he has AK or QQ. It is a hard laydown, but I think to even consider yourself a decent player you need to make it.
What say the night crew.

[hate]

I don't know about that 3-bet myself. AK misplays it pretty badly on the flop, and I don't see an ok player playing QQ like that, if anything I'd expect him to call down. I don't know what bets you're missing here.

[Carmine]

Well you consider the set when he raises, but KQ is the hand I but him on most likely. I hold two of the aces so AK is less likely. It isn't until he caps that the scales tilt greatly toward the set.
I feel like not 3-betting is too passive, missing bets etc. You don't think any K would just call the flop and pop the turn if they put me on QQ or lower.

[hate]

Standard play I see is a checkraise or a raise on the flop when he's got a piece. I consider the set or two-pair when he waits to raise the turn, but hope he's on top pair, even though waiting until the turn to raise I see much more frequently with hands that are beating me. I'll see a play just like that against LAGs or dicers, and in that case I auto-3bet, and there's no question about calling down then, even if he caps.

[oreogod]

Im going with villain having a set of 9s (possibly 7s) -- unless he played his KK pretty passive pre and on the flop. Low limits love to wait until the turn to pop it. But Im going with 9s.

KQ? If he is average hes worried about AK in this situation if that is what he has. KQ u would see the turn action on the river, not on the turn. Well if hes not a maniac.

[Moozh]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think the board pairing will do anything other than give him quads or a boat, I think your reading skills need some improvement.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may be right, but I'm still curious how certain you need to be to make this fold. Let's run some numbers assuming you only call the river bet if the board pairs.

At the time of our decision, the pot is 11.75bb.

Regardless of whether our villian has a 2-pair or set, there are 10 cards to pair the board with 46 to choose from. Thus, 78.3% of the time the board will not pair and you lose 1bb.

Of the times the river pairs the board and your opponent has 2-pair, 4 will give the villain a boat, 6 will give you a better 2-pair. The villain will get a boat 8.7% of the time and you will lose 2bb. You will get a better two pair 13.0% of the time and win 14.75bb. Let's make P be the percent of times the villian has a set.

78.3% of the time you lose 1bb.
P * 21.7% of the time you lose 2bb.
(1-P) * 8.7% of the time you lose 2bb.
(1-P) * 13.0% of the time you win 14.75bb.

Solving for P to break even on our call:

(.783*-1) + (.217*P*-2) + (.087*[1-P]*-2) + (.130*[1-P]*14.75) = 0

-.783 - .434P - .174 + .174P + 1.9175 - 1.9175P = 0

2.1775P = .9605

P = 44%

Thus, the villain must have a set more than 44% of the time for it to be correct to fold to the 3-bet. Viewing the action, you're probably good to fold on the turn.

[wrto4556]

am I the only one that hates this turn 3 bet?

He raises you on the big streets, he's got you beat too many times to make 3 betting right.

[kurosh]

This is NOT the optimal line.

[Evan]

Without putting a whole lot of thought into this, seeing a showdown with one pair after he caps the turn is just not good.

[JoshuaD]

Don't 3-bet that turn unless you can fold to the cap. I prefer just calling down against an unkown, and 3-betting vs a known rock.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't fold to a turn cap. You have too many outs to spike a board pair to beat another two-pair on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villian hold 2 pair here less that 5% of the time.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't 3-bet that turn unless you can fold to the cap. I prefer just calling down against an unkown, and 3-betting vs a known rock.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you want to 3-bet a rock?

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't 3-bet that turn unless you can fold to the cap. I prefer just calling down against an unkown, and 3-betting vs a known rock.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you want to 3-bet a rock?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he's got AK or 99, and I can fold if he caps.

I may have caused confusion when I said rock. Bison's rules have a rock defined as TP-P, I have a rock defined as TP-A. A mouse makes more sense as TP-P IMO.

[Carmine]

[ QUOTE ]
Without putting a whole lot of thought into this, seeing a showdown with one pair after he caps the turn is just not good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, the river call was stupid and that is being kind.

[Carmine]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't 3-bet that turn unless you can fold to the cap. I prefer just calling down against an unkown, and 3-betting vs a known rock.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this sums it up pretty well. I'm not only just 3-betting the rock, but any half decent player that I don't consider tricky.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]

Agreed, the river call was stupid and that is being kind.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it would be all together ridiculous to call you stupid one step before that.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't 3-bet that turn unless you can fold to the cap. I prefer just calling down against an unkown, and 3-betting vs a known rock.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you want to 3-bet a rock?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he's got AK or 99, and I can fold if he caps.

I may have caused confusion when I said rock. Bison's rules have a rock defined as TP-P, I have a rock defined as TP-A. A mouse makes more sense as TP-P IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]
3 betting to find a fold to a 4 bet is a bad idea, don't do it.

As far as your player descriptions, I have no idea what you're talking about. I don't use player ratings (honestly, what is the point? I never understood that) and I don't know how mice play poker.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
3 betting to find a fold to a 4 bet is a bad idea, don't do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

why?

[ QUOTE ]
As far as your player descriptions, I have no idea what you're talking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the person is an unknown I call the raise and get one bet in on the river. If the person is tight-passive preflop, and aggressive after the flop, I 3-bet. If he caps he's got 99, if he calls he's got AK. I don't see him capping with AK any significant amount of the time, and I don't see him raising with K9.

It seems to be the most profitable line if you have that read. Since hero doesn't, he shouldn't take that line.


[ QUOTE ]
I don't use player ratings (honestly, what is the point? I never understood that) and I don't know how mice play poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

to autoexport them into notes, so you can quickly notice players you know when you open a new table, and know how they play. Playerview takes 30 seconds to a minute to kick in.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
why?

[/ QUOTE ]
Its an expensive way to not see a showdown. Nate wrote a post about inefficient folds once, it was really good. Go check it out.

[Carmine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Agreed, the river call was stupid and that is being kind.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it would be all together ridiculous to call you stupid one step before that.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/frown.gifNo need to rub it in. I believe I said the same thing 15 posts ago

[ QUOTE ]
Looking over this hand again. Once I 3-bet and it is capped I'm 90% sure he has a set and folding to the cap is the correct play unless the guy is a clown or known for pulling crap. Even calling the cap and folding the river UI is -ev because of odds. You need to hit your 2 outer 99.5% of the time unless he has loose raising standards(K7s).

I could just call it down after the raise, but I think you miss out on too many bets when he has AK or QQ. It is a hard laydown, but I think to even consider yourself a decent player you need to make it.
What say the night crew.

[/ QUOTE ]

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why?

[/ QUOTE ]
Its an expensive way to not see a showdown. Nate wrote a post about inefficient folds once, it was really good. Go check it out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm familiar with the post, but I think this line loses you the same amount when you're behind (and his capping almost definitely means your behind), but nets you more when you're ahead (he'll almost definitely call down with AK).

I don't think nate's post applies to this situation.

[JoshuaD]

Just to be clear, this is when you have a strong read on your opponent being a TP-A. Against even a TA-A I call down instead of 3-betting the turn.

[hate]

So you don't use player descriptions at all? I know I can't keep notes on 4 tables at once on every hand, and as soon as I move to 6 and 8 that's going to be a dream. I'd be 3-betting this against a LAG or most dicers who's done the whole wait till the turn to raise top pair trick.