Foxwoods 4/8 hand

[deucesevenoff]

Pretty sure I misplayed this turn card, but it managed to work out for me this time. Here's how I played it along with my thinking on each street...(Don't remember exactly, but here is most of the relavent info....

PF there are about 6 limpers and I'm in late position with Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif. So I raise and EVERYONE calls. Pot is something like 14 small bets going into the flop.

Flop is Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Checked to me and I bet. (I know I'm not getting any of the 800 thousand draws to fold here, but I think checking here is incorrect because of pot equity edge. Conversely, is this a situation where betting will not protect my hand as any straight or flush draw will have odds to call?).

Turn: 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Probably the WORST card in the deck to come up. There are still three or four people in the pot (again, sorry this is from memory so I don't remember exactly) and its checked to me. I CHECK.

This is where I'm pretty sure I messed up. I think I botched this turn, but that 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif made every possible draw come in. At the time, I didn't want to get check raised. Nobody with any face card or high spade is going to fold here...this was a loose passive table and I can count about 18 cards I don't want to see on the river (9 spades, 3 aces, 3 kings, 3 eights).

River: 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Another fantastic card for my hand /images/graemlins/smirk.gif The player first to act bets and a middle position player calls. There was still one other person to act behind me and I decide to fold.

Gets shown down and guy who bet the river (seemed like a solid player) shows down AK with K /images/graemlins/spade.gif. The other guy had a smaller spade.

So I clearly saved myself three big bets with this turn check (solid player was probably going for check raise), but I don't think its long run +EV.

Does anybody else take my line or are we all betting that turn? What do you do when you get check raised in a spot like that. Call/fold the river or pay the guy off?

Thanks!

[sweetjazz]

Preflop and flop are good. You can't protect your hand on the flop, so you're just getting value with your bet. You'll win more than your share after this flop.

On the turn, you're almost certainly drawing, BUT you have a lot of outs. The case Q, any J, any T, and the two non-spade 9s left look good. The 9s may be an out, but then you have to worry about a straight flush. (Obviously, a straight flush is possible on the board as it is, but 2-card straight flushes are much less common than 1-card straight flushes.) So you should expect to win this pot, even with this bad card hitting, about 20% of the time.

So whether to bet or check on the turn depends on how many callers you expect to get. If you everyone (or all but one) calls your bet and all subsequent raises, then you benefit. If two players fold, it's a wash. If three or more players fold, then you lose out on any bets going into the pot.

Because it is Foxwoods 4/8, I would be inclined to strongly consider betting *for value* with your *fairly strong draw*, but your decision should be based on your reads of the other players involved in the hand.

The river fold is fine. It would be harder if a fourth spade didn't come, as I would expect many players to bet out on fourth street with a straight. OTOH, a lot of players will be scared with the Q-8 straight (though of course they will call any number of bets to make sure their hand is no good) and many players like to "wait for the river to make sure the fourth spade doesn't come" or are afraid to bet since they can't beat a flush. So obviously, you expect to lose on the river, but the pot might be big enough to call one on the river w/o the fourth spade, especially if you are closing the action or have only very passive players behind you.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Pretty sure I misplayed this turn card, but it managed to work out for me this time. Here's how I played it along with my thinking on each street...(Don't remember exactly, but here is most of the relavent info....

PF there are about 6 limpers and I'm in late position with Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif. So I raise and EVERYONE calls. Pot is something like 14 small bets going into the flop.

Flop is Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Checked to me and I bet. (I know I'm not getting any of the 800 thousand draws to fold here, but I think checking here is incorrect because of pot equity edge. Conversely, is this a situation where betting will not protect my hand as any straight or flush draw will have odds to call?).

Turn: 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Probably the WORST card in the deck to come up. There are still three or four people in the pot (again, sorry this is from memory so I don't remember exactly) and its checked to me. I CHECK.

This is where I'm pretty sure I messed up. I think I botched this turn, but that 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif made every possible draw come in. At the time, I didn't want to get check raised. Nobody with any face card or high spade is going to fold here...this was a loose passive table and I can count about 18 cards I don't want to see on the river (9 spades, 3 aces, 3 kings, 3 eights).

River: 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Another fantastic card for my hand /images/graemlins/smirk.gif The player first to act bets and a middle position player calls. There was still one other person to act behind me and I decide to fold.

Gets shown down and guy who bet the river (seemed like a solid player) shows down AK with K /images/graemlins/spade.gif. The other guy had a smaller spade.

So I clearly saved myself three big bets with this turn check (solid player was probably going for check raise), but I don't think its long run +EV.

Does anybody else take my line or are we all betting that turn? What do you do when you get check raised in a spot like that. Call/fold the river or pay the guy off?

Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

Bet that turn. There is still a good chance that you have the best hand. True, the donk with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif isn't gonna fold, but he shouldn't draw for free. A c/r would suck, but you have lotsa outs.

[Yads]

I think checking the turn is fine, that card probably completed at least one draw. Take the free card for your boat.

[KHALI]

In HPFAP Sklansky says that on the turn you should often check hands with outs and to bet hands that if already beaten have no outs. I think the turn card and number of opponents definitely puts you in that situation. I would think there is a high percentage chance that you are behind now. That being said I am a fish so I would bet out.

If you check then you may have to call a river bet(depending on action) more often than normal if you check the turn.

[cassady]

Maybe I play too weak here, but with four opponents, and the four straight (completed by a king) and a three flush on the board, I'd check it through, then see how the action got to me on the river.

[sweetjazz]

[ QUOTE ]

If you check then you may have to call a river bet(depending on action) more often than normal if you check the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just want to point out the reasoning behind your statement, which is correct (though worded a bit confusingly). You should call a bet more often on the river if you check the turn than if you bet the turn.

The initial logic might suggest otherwise -- the pot is bigger if you bet the turn, so you need to win less often in order to make calling correct. But, the point is that it is more likely that someone will make a bluff at the pot after the turn gets checked through, trying to represent the straight. Of course, most of the time someone bets on the river, they will have the straight, but it might still be worth a call on the river, if you're closing the action.

OTOH, it's unlikely someone would bluff bet on the river given that you keep showing strength, so if someone bets out on the river they probably have a flush or a K (possibly an 8, though I think most Foxwoods 4/8 players would just call with an 8).

FWIW, if you think it's close between checking and betting on the turn, betting does have the small advantage that you will usually get a free showdown if a fourth spade doesn't hit and nobody has the straight or flush on the turn. I don't think this is enough to offset the problem of being raised/check-raised by someone on your left, so checking through is probably right unless there are a lot of really loose players who will likely call two cold on the turn with weak hands like J7.

[KHALI]

You are right sweetjazz, my post was worded poorly.

I actually wrote the last line as an after thought and wasn't really saying that as a justification for betting the turn.But really what do I know I'm getting pumped at 2/4.