AJs - playing hard or hardly playing? [Archive]

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arkady

04-04-2005, 01:23 PM

unknown villain.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
Hero raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: (5.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

someone tell me that i should not be calling here.

River: (8.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

ok failed to improve, definitely should not be calling here. right? right???

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

RunDownHouse

04-04-2005, 01:37 PM

On the turn I would call, since a K will most likely win you the whole pot. I'd fold the river unimproved (at least I would like to say I would fold the river, but I'd probably call it, because I suck and would need to see his winning hand).

Sporky

04-04-2005, 02:04 PM

after the cap on the flop, i would be hard pressed to call the turn with that queen falling. i would call if a blank hit, but that queen is nasty. i'd fold. i think you're hosed here more times than not.

TMFS9

04-04-2005, 02:34 PM

Well after the Q fell on the turn you are getting 7.75:1 odds. I think you can assume that if a king falls it is clean, but there is a possibility that villan holds a king here. So I would give the King outs ~3.5 outs, Now there are 5 A's and J's out but they really can't be clean because you could be up against a made straight or a set, but there will be times where you make trips or two pair and it's good. So if you give ~2 outs for the A's and J's you would have a collective 5.5 outs which would give you pretty much on the money pot odds, with implied odds creating an overlay.

WarmonkEd

04-04-2005, 02:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well after the Q fell on the turn you are getting 7.75:1 odds. I think you can assume that if a king falls it is clean, but there is a possibility that villan holds a king here. So I would give the King outs ~3.5 outs, Now there are 5 A's and J's out but they really can't be clean because you could be up against a made straight or a set, but there will be times where you make trips or two pair and it's good. So if you give ~2 outs for the A's and J's you would have a collective 5.5 outs which would give you pretty much on the money pot odds, with implied odds creating an overlay.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that's right. He's getting 7.75:1 immediate pot odds. But he still has to bet or check/call the river, so his effective odds are 8.75:2.

edit: oh wait. you've discounted the times your outs aren't good.

TMFS9

04-04-2005, 03:02 PM

No i fold the river unimproved, I really can't see you being good here much if ever against a sane opponent.

WarmonkEd

04-04-2005, 04:06 PM

you're right, my mistake. I was having a non-thinking moment.

chio

04-04-2005, 07:22 PM

call down getting 9-2. turn card sucks, but HU vs unknown you're good way more than 20% of the time here. plus you have some outs on the river, so you need to be ahead even less to call down.

mperich

04-04-2005, 07:33 PM

I think ur good closer to 5% or even less. 20%? NO WAY. What is villain capping with on the flop? A draw? He got there. Either he hit his bottom str8 or his queen and ur behind anyways. A made str8? 2 Pair? a set? KJ? What exactly CAN you beat? A cap bluff?

I think calling the turn bet is close. Not much of a mistake either way, especially since he may give up on the river if he somehow IS on some maniac bluff. So I think I like a turn call. Barely. And fold the river unimproved.

-Mike

Wally

04-04-2005, 07:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
call down getting 9-2. turn card sucks, but HU vs unknown you're good way more than 20% of the time here.

[/ QUOTE ]

False, unless the 10 is a far better game than when I left it.