When do you have to push with a big stack? [Archive]

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poincaraux

04-04-2005, 12:38 PM

I've been wondering when exactly you have to push with a big stack. This isn't exactly a great string of hands for discussion purposes, but maybe it's a start. I'd be grateful for any suggestions you can give.

This is the last few hands from a $10+1 Party sit and go. Here's the first hand. I've been pushing him around quite a bit and his overbet seems way out of line:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (2 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t3850)
BB (t4150)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
Hero raises to t800, BB calls t400.

Flop: (t1600) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB bets t3350 (All-In), Hero calls t3050 (All-In).

Turn: (t8000) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t8000) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t8000

Results in white below: 
BB has 4d 8c (high card, queen).
Hero has As Kh (flush, king high).
Outcome: Hero wins t7700. BB wins t300. 

So, now I have the aforementioned big stack. I didn't have a choice for the next hand, but I would've pushed given the chance:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (2 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t7700)
Button (t300)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
Button calls t100 (All-In).

Flop: (t700) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t700) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t700) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t700

Results in white below: 
Hero has 4s Ac (one pair, twos).
Button has 8c Qc (two pair, eights and twos).
Outcome: Button wins t600. Hero wins t100. 

Can/should I fold this next hand? How strong does it have to be before I raise?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (2 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t7400)
BB (t600)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif.
Hero raises to t800, BB calls t200 (All-In).

Flop: (t1400) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t1400) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t1400) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t1400

Results in white below: 
BB has Qc 3s (one pair, queens).
Hero has 5s 2c (one pair, fives).
Outcome: BB wins t1200. Hero wins t200. 

Next hand. I'm thinking "I'm the big stack. If there's a chance he'll fold, I want him to. If not, I'm not *that* far behind a random hand and I have enough chips to gamble a little."

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (2 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t6800)
Button (t1200)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Button raises to t1200 (All-In), Hero calls t800.

Flop: (t2400) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t2400) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t2400) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t2400

Results in white below: 
Hero has 3d 4d (one pair, fours).
Button has 6h Th (one pair, tens).
Outcome: Button wins t2400. 

My newfound aggression seems to be causing me some trouble, but I think this next one makes sense .. yes or no?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (2 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t5600)
BB (t2400)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero raises to t5600 (All-In), BB calls t2000 (All-In).

Flop: (t8000) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t8000) K/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t8000) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t8000

Results in white below: 
BB has Tc 7s (straight, ace high).
Hero has 3h 3s (one pair, threes).
Outcome: BB wins t4800. Hero wins t3200. 

Now I think he's pushing me around. I'm probably just making that up, though, because I think this is a terrible call in retrospect:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (2 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t3200)
Button (t4800)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Button raises to t4800 (All-In), Hero calls t2800 (All-In).

Flop: (t8000) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t8000) J/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t8000) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t8000

Results in white below: 
Hero has Ah 2d (two pair, aces and twos).
Button has As Js (two pair, aces and jacks).
Outcome: Button wins t8000. 

So .. any thoughts in general about what I should do with a huge chip lead? Should I just wait for better hands despite the high blinds, should I be hyper-aggressive, or is there a better ballance?

Thanks!

sofere

04-04-2005, 12:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K.
Hero raises to t800, BB calls t400.

[/ QUOTE ]
Push Preflop

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is Button with 5, 2.
Hero raises to t800, BB calls t200 (All-In).

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is a fold, but a push isn't horrible.

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is BB with 3, 4.
Button raises to t1200 (All-In), Hero calls t800.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My newfound aggression seems to be causing me some trouble

[/ QUOTE ]
Calling isn't aggression...poor call.

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is Button with 3, 3.
Hero raises to t5600 (All-In), BB calls t2000 (All-In).

[/ QUOTE ]
Good push...poor call by BB (he's just frustrated)

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is BB with A, 2.
Button raises to t4800 (All-In), Hero calls t2800 (All-In).

[/ QUOTE ]
I fold this most of the time, but as it seems villain is pushing/calling every hand, I think a call the right play.

Phil Van Sexton

04-04-2005, 12:53 PM

In heads up play, there are no rules.

I won a SnG the other day when I pushed with 32o. He had 3000 and AT. I flopped a 2, and quickly left the table after my victory before he could threaten bodily harm.

If you think he'll fold, feel free to push with any 2. It depends on the opponent.

On the 52o hand, he's definately going to call, so I'd fold that. Give me 87o or J4 and I'll push it. You can determine the real answer with math. Maybe 52o is ok.

As for when to call his allins, this is very player dependent. I've called with A2 and I've folded A2.

Madd

04-04-2005, 01:12 PM

I think you did the right thing in each case. You just got unlucky.

Mathematically, pushing 52o gives you a 90,085% chance to win the tournament vs 90% by folding.

Calling with 34s is correct if your opponent pushes every two cards which seems to be a reasonable assumption. Then you have a 81,4% chance of winning vs 80% by folding.

If my opponent pushes (nearly) every hand I'd call with any ace in this spot so your call with A2 seems fine to me, too.

jah0550

04-04-2005, 01:20 PM

On the 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif hand, you should have folded here. What is it that you are losing here? Answer: the blinds. He is going to have to put that 400 back into the pot on the next hand, so why double him up? After all you only have 4 high! All the other pushes look fine to me. Calling with A2 was a bad play, IMO. Remember the Gap concept, the hands you need to be calling with have to be better than the hands you raise with. I rarely like drawing to a naked ace. Think of it this way. You are drawing to one card. The villian is drawing to two cards, because your 2 is worthless unless he has 2x. Don't worry about the result. I've been down to 15 chips with the blinds t300 and won the tourney and have lost a tourney to a guy who had 50 chips when the blinds were t400. It happens, so just try to fix some leaks so this doesn't happen again. Good luck to you!

poincaraux

04-04-2005, 03:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Calling isn't aggression...poor call.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes. good point.

thanks!

poincaraux

04-04-2005, 03:18 PM

thanks for the reply. what are you using to come up with these numbers?

poincaraux

04-04-2005, 03:25 PM

Good point on the 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif hand. I wasn't thinking so much that I was ahead, but rather that I could afford to gamble a bit because I was far ahead and would win the tournament if I won that hand. Madd posted some numbers that say it's better not to fold (but it's very close).

Given his numbers, I don't make a big mistake by folding .. and folding once in a while may make the villain more likely to fold the next time I push.

As far as the A2 hand, I thought that his range of hands was very large, so I assumed I'd win either if I hit or if neither of us hit.

I think my head's in the right place here: I'm worried that I have some big leaks to fix. I'm only worried about the results because I think they reflect this.

Thanks for the help.

Phil Van Sexton

04-04-2005, 03:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Calling isn't aggression...poor call.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes. good point.

thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

Madd did the math and 43s is a clear call assuming he is pushing with anything.

If it makes you feel better, pretend that you are pushing with 43s, but have no folding equity. Maybe this will eliminate the anti-calling bias.

Please provide more explanation as to why this call is poor. At best, this is very borderline.

poincaraux

04-04-2005, 04:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Calling isn't aggression...poor call.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes. good point.

thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

Madd did the math and 43s is a clear call assuming he is pushing with anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

I read that post before I read Madd's. Madd's was very interesting, and I'm hoping he'll write back and tell me how exactly he got the percentages. With his numbers in mind, I like the call, but there's not a huge difference between calling and folding.

In any case, I think it's a valid point that pushing is more aggressive than calling. If I'm trying to be aggressive with a big stack, I should be looking for more situations to push.

[ QUOTE ]

If it makes you feel better, pretend that you are pushing with 43s, but have no folding equity. Maybe this will eliminate the anti-calling bias.

Please provide more explanation as to why this call is poor. At best, this is very borderline.

[/ QUOTE ]
Here's what I'm currently thinking: at some point, it makes sense to fold marginal hands so that I have greater fold equity when I push. I'm just not sure when I reach that point, especially when I have a very big stack heads-up. Does this make sense? Do the huge heads-up blinds make it really hard (impossible?) to get to that point?

Madd

04-04-2005, 06:13 PM

I'm just using pen and paper (and maybe sometimes Excel).

E.g., if you fold 34s, you have 6400 chips = 80% of all chips left. HU there is a linear relation between the chip ratio and the likelihood to win the HU duell, i.e. with 80% of all chips you will win in 80% of all cases.

On the other hand, 34s wins in 38% of all cases against a random hand. So, by calling against random two you win in
38% + 62% * 70% = 81,4% of all cases.

Though I'm not able to calculate these numbers accurately in the given time at the table, I would have called in this spot. However, I agree that by sometimes folding marginal hands you might increase your folding equity later.

poincaraux

04-05-2005, 12:16 AM

ah .. right! i was trying to think about skill, but if you ignore skill, chip value has to be linear here. I'm not sure exactly how to factor skill in, but this is certainly a good start. I re-did the calculations myself just to check and here's what I got:

First hand: A4o with 7700 in the BB
Fold: 91.25%, $48.25
All-In: 96.75%, $49.35

Second hand: 52o with 7400 in the sb
Fold: 90.00%, $48.00
All-In: 90.14%, $48.03

Third hand: 34s with 6800 in the BB
Fold: 80.00%, $46.00
All-In: 81.59%, $46.32

Fourth hand: 33 with 5600 in the sb
Fold: 67.50%, $43.50
All-In: 72.22%, $44.44

Fifth hand: A2o with 3200 in the BB
Fold: 35.00%, $37.00
All-In: 43.94%, $38.79

(the differences between our numbers are rounding errors .. I used PokerStove to get my numbers)

So, all of these were pretty close. The last hand is pretty interesting: If I put him on a slightly smaller range like any ace, any suited cards, any two broadway cards and pairs 55 or better, i'm 48.039%, but the blinds make it worth it:

Fifth hand: A2o with 3200 in the BB
Any ace, any suited cards, any two broadway cards, pairs 55 or better
Fold: 35.00%, $37.00
All-In: 38.43%, $37.69

If I give him any two broadway cards, pairs 55 or better, any suited ace, any suited king, A9o-A7o, then I should fold

Fifth hand: A2o with 3200 in the BB
two broadway, 55+, Axs, Kxs, A9o-A7o
Fold: 35.00%, $37.00
All-In: 33.62%, $36.72

But again, it's not huge.

It's good to work this stuff out beforehand. I have a better idea of what's a close decision and what's not. I think this also points out how much big blinds suck. The A2o vs. a random hand case in particular .. A2o has a 9% advantage over a random hand but that only translates into a $2 difference in expected value (2.5% of the $80 prize pool) even when you're all-in.

Hmmn .. it's obviously a good idea to work this out beforehand .. I'll work it out for a random opponent and then for a couple of distributions .. anyone have any suggestions for good opponent distributions to use (either on the calling or pushing end)?

poincaraux

04-20-2005, 07:40 AM

Ok, I did some more work on this. Andrew Prock was nice enough to host it for me, so you can see the results at Heads-Up Jam or Fold Calculator (http://www.pokerstove.com/analysis/allin.php). You can plug in tournament structure, blind levels, stack sizes and rough opponent distributions and it will show you the equity of each hand.

There's a lot of interesting stuff there (I think). Most of it tells me to be more aggressive, but I learned some things in the other direction as well. For instance, you can fold totally worthless hands when you have a very small stack (e.g. small blind, 8000 total chips, opponent will call with anything, blinds 200/400, you have 800 chips has you folding 13 hands).

I think this is useful, but I'm obviously a bit biased. Any thoughts?