over under on units wins?

[mostsmooth]

i have no idea what the vegas O/U is,but i think 20 or 21 would be a tough decision, so heres a poll for those baseball fans here (which there seems to be plenty).
ps i am a total jinx, so i wouldnt be surprised if randy is on the dl within a week of this post. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[mostsmooth]

thats it? 17 votes?

[stabn]

I think the over under for him really has to be around 18 or 19. Taking the over on 20 for a guy at his age is really gambling a ton, even given his track record.

[mostsmooth]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the over under for him really has to be around 18 or 19. Taking the over on 20 for a guy at his age is really gambling a ton, even given his track record.

[/ QUOTE ]
anybody know the official number?

[pshreck]

ESPN radio had it at 18. Of course ESPN doesnt make gambling lines, and they got this number from Vegas.

[mostsmooth]

wow, 18 is kinda low. i guess they lowered it to compensate for health problems.(which i hope he doesnt have any)
if he stays healthy, he wins 20+ easy i think

[Justin A]

I don't think 24 or 25 wins is out of the question. It really depends a lot on his health.

[zaxx19]

18, over 20 given his age and health issues is absolutely absurd.

[istewart]

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18, over 20 given his age and health issues is absolutely absurd.

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[pshreck]

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18, over 20 given his age and health issues is absolutely absurd.

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...

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Its not 'absurd', but I think Zaxx is right in that it doesnt make much sense to choose this (like if you had to actually put money on it). If vegas put up a 20 o/u for johnson, people would beting that under like crazy. Look at his w/l history over his 17 year career. He got 20, 21, and 24 in 3 seasons, the other seasons are all under 20.

I think 18 is really accurate.

[istewart]

I wouldn't put the O/U on 20, no, but I read zaxx's post to mean that the idea of him winning 20 is absurd.

[Dead]

Please, please show me a site where the number is 18. I would be on over 18 in a SECOND. I would throw down a chunk on that. If I would bet on 20 over then I would certainly bet on over 18.

[pshreck]

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I wouldn't put the O/U on 20, no, but I read zaxx's post to mean that the idea of him winning 20 is absurd.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

[pshreck]

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Please, please show me a site where the number is 18. I would be on over 18 in a SECOND. I would throw down a chunk on that. If I would bet on 20 over then I would certainly bet on over 18.

[/ QUOTE ]

All the lines are down, but its sad you didnt look before because that was indeed O/U for Johnson. I believe it was the highest of any pitcher, tied with Santana (Santana was 18, or 18.5 I think).

[stabn]

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wow, 18 is kinda low. i guess they lowered it to compensate for health problems.(which i hope he doesnt have any)
if he stays healthy, he wins 20+ easy i think

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, but the line has to take into account the fact that he might not. If he doesn't the under wins for sure.

[mostsmooth]

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18, over 20 given his age and health issues is absolutely absurd.

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[/ QUOTE ]

Its not 'absurd', but I think Zaxx is right in that it doesnt make much sense to choose this (like if you had to actually put money on it). If vegas put up a 20 o/u for johnson, people would beting that under like crazy. Look at his w/l history over his 17 year career. He got 20, 21, and 24 in 3 seasons, the other seasons are all under 20.

I think 18 is really accurate.

[/ QUOTE ]
he had 3 20 win seasons and youre knocking him because its only 3? most every other pitchers seasons are "all under 20"
now hes older yes, but argueably in the best situation hes ever been,no?

[pshreck]

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he had 3 20 win seasons and youre knocking him because its only 3? most every other pitchers seasons are "all under 20"
now hes older yes, but argueably in the best situation hes ever been,no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? How would you think I am knocking him? I am knocking people who think o/u set at 20 is accurate. I agree he may be the best pitcher ever, and I think a target win amount for him this season is 18 wins.

[Dead]

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he had 3 20 win seasons and youre knocking him because its only 3? most every other pitchers seasons are "all under 20"
now hes older yes, but argueably in the best situation hes ever been,no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? How would you think I am knocking him? I am knocking people who think o/u set at 20 is accurate. I agree he may be the best pitcher ever, and I think a target win amount for him this season is 18 wins.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who on here said that he is the best pitcher ever?

I would never say that. One of the greats though? Definitely.

Clearly the greatest pitcher ever is Sandy Koufax. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[lastchance]

I can't believe that more than half the 2+2'ers are taking the over at 20. There is no way that is a +EV even money proposition.

[pshreck]

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I can't believe that more than half the 2+2'ers are taking the over at 20. There is no way that is a +EV even money proposition.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly... how many of these guys actually made the real money bet at 18 wins? Probably none.

[mostsmooth]

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I can't believe that more than half the 2+2'ers are taking the over at 20. There is no way that is a +EV even money proposition.

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Exactly... how many of these guys actually made the real money bet at 18 wins? Probably none.

[/ QUOTE ]
if i was a gambler, i would have bet a lot on the over 18

[pshreck]

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if i was a gambler, i would have bet a lot on the over 18

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats why you aren't a gambler.

[mostsmooth]

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if i was a gambler, i would have bet a lot on the over 18

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Thats why you aren't a gambler.

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oh i see, so vegas set a bad line?

[pshreck]

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if i was a gambler, i would have bet a lot on the over 18

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Thats why you aren't a gambler.

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oh i see, so vegas set a bad line?

[/ QUOTE ]

Have no idea how you came to that conclusion.

[Dead]

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if i was a gambler, i would have bet a lot on the over 18

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Thats why you aren't a gambler.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't say that about him. You're the one who told me you'd give me 2 to 1 odds when what you really wanted was for me to give you 2 to 1 odds. I think knowing how to write odds is one of the basics of sports betting.

[mostsmooth]

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if i was a gambler, i would have bet a lot on the over 18

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Thats why you aren't a gambler.

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oh i see, so vegas set a bad line?

[/ QUOTE ]

Have no idea how you came to that conclusion.

[/ QUOTE ]
sorry if i misunderstood,but you seemed to infer that i would be an idiot to bet the over. and if that were the case, the o/u must be set wrong if its so obvious.

[pshreck]

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Don't say that about him. You're the one who told me you'd give me 2 to 1 odds when what you really wanted was to give me 2 to 1 odds. I think knowing how to write odds is one of the basics of sports betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dead, trust me, you dont even want to go here.

May I remind you, you claimed Johnson was a lock to win 20 games, then wanted 1-1 odds on your lock? Mine was a typo, yours was just not understanding how odds work. And if you were a gambler, then you would have known that sites offer bets on pitcher wins every year, and you would have been able to bet your 'lock'.

[Dead]

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Don't say that about him. You're the one who told me you'd give me 2 to 1 odds when what you really wanted was to give me 2 to 1 odds. I think knowing how to write odds is one of the basics of sports betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dead, trust me, you dont even want to go here.

May I remind you, you claimed Johnson was a lock to win 20 games, then wanted 1-1 odds on your lock? Mine was a typo, yours was just not understanding how odds work. And if you were a gambler, then you would have known that sites offer bets on pitcher wins every year, and you would have been able to bet your 'lock'.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never claimed to be a gambler. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

But I made a bet with you at 2:1 for you.

[pshreck]

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But I made a bet with you at 2:1 for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know, and I still appreciate that.