the king of 3rd place

[squire]

i play the $11s at party.
only 200 tourneys so far, just a beginner.
i have itm of 47% problem is 40% of the time i get there i end up gettin busted out in 3rd!
the issue is usually when i am medium stacked as i am never sure what hand range i should defend my blinds with after level 4.
i also tend to get more aggresive post bubble and get busted out pushing Ax on sb, is this generally a good play.
please help 3rd is still last.
squire

[theredpill5]

I've come to realize that anything below about AT 3 to 5 handed, just sucks. A2, A3, AX under AT. I, too, have lost a lot of money with those hands in SNG's playing them too aggressively.

[LaggyLou]

There is a world of difference between A9 and A2. That having been said, I push a ton from the SB 3 handed when the button folds, including with any A, unless it is a very unusual situation and we got to the money in level 3 or something. That is not to say that I will call all-in with any A (though I might depending on the player).

How aggressive are you on the bubble? Taking chances on the bubble so that you are at least in second if you get to the money is very important to finishing first. Your pushes have more FE when they put the opponents tournament at stake, but not yours.

[Cleveland Guy]

[ QUOTE ]
i play the $11s at party.
only 200 tourneys so far, just a beginner.
i have itm of 47% problem is 40% of the time i get there i end up gettin busted out in 3rd!
the issue is usually when i am medium stacked as i am never sure what hand range i should defend my blinds with after level 4.
i also tend to get more aggresive post bubble and get busted out pushing Ax on sb, is this generally a good play.
please help 3rd is still last.
squire

[/ QUOTE ]

You could also just be experiencing variance.

You have 200 tourney - so 100 ITMs (roughly)

You could then expect, a 33% placement in each of the 3 (if an average player)

So you are probably only a couple of bad beats either way of this being normal distribution.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i play the $11s at party.
only 200 tourneys so far, just a beginner.
i have itm of 47% problem is 40% of the time i get there i end up gettin busted out in 3rd!
the issue is usually when i am medium stacked as i am never sure what hand range i should defend my blinds with after level 4.
i also tend to get more aggresive post bubble and get busted out pushing Ax on sb, is this generally a good play.
please help 3rd is still last.
squire

[/ QUOTE ]

You could also just be experiencing variance.

You have 200 tourney - so 100 ITMs (roughly)

You could then expect, a 33% placement in each of the 3 (if an average player)

So you are probably only a couple of bad beats either way of this being normal distribution.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. In addition, the play-for-first-settle-for-third mantra would indicate that you 3rd place finishes should be greater than 33%.

If your 1st/2nd/3rd is 40%/20%/40%, you are making more money than someone at 33%/33%/33%.

[Sam T.]

Hi squire,

I agree that this is probably just normal variance.

I could be dead wrong on this, but I tend not to defend my blinds all that vigorously. If I don't have a decent ace or a pair, I'll let it go, and on the next hand and steal them right back.

Once you get to the bubble, folding equity is often so high (depending on stack sizes, etc.), you should be shoving in your chips with a wide range of hands. In the SB, I'll push with any two if I think the BB will fold. I'll shove a decent ace even if I think he won't.

I guess my point is that if you don't hit early (or even if you do), the bubble is when you can build the stack necessary to take a run at first. People HATE going out fourth, and will try to fold their way into the money. Figure out who these people are (they are the same ones who aren't stealing enough), and rob them blind. If you pushed every other hand once it was down to four players, you would probably not be too far from right. (Okay, that's maybe a bit much, but just a bit.)

Sam

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]

please help 3rd is still last.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. 4th (or worse) is last.

Seriously, be careful with your bubble aggresssion. I had the exact same problem as you. In trying to move more 2nds and 3rds to 1sts, I got carried away and while I ended up with a few more 1sts, I got a boatload more 4ths and 5ths.

I do think most people aren't aggessive enough on the bubble, but it's a fine line that's easy to cross.

Remember:
Difference between 1st and 2nd: 20 units
Difference between 2nd and 3rd: 10 units
Difference between 3rd and 4th: 31 units

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
Difference between 1st and 2nd: 20 units
Difference between 2nd and 3rd: 10 units
Difference between 3rd and 4th: 31 units

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually the difference between 3rd and 4th is 20 units. I'm assuming units is % of prize pool.

50/30/20/0

Buy-in should not be taken into account because it's a "sunk cost" (i.e. you already paid it and you'll never get it back)

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Difference between 1st and 2nd: 20 units
Difference between 2nd and 3rd: 10 units
Difference between 3rd and 4th: 31 units

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually the difference between 3rd and 4th is 20 units. I'm assuming units is % of prize pool.

50/30/20/0

Buy-in should not be taken into account because it's a "sunk cost" (i.e. you already paid it and you'll never get it back)

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, of course. (This is what happens when you get interrupted while writing a post.)

In any case, my point is that the jump in prize money between 4th and 3rd is as big as the one between 2nd and 1st.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
In any case, my point is that the jump in prize money between 4th and 3rd is as big as the one between 2nd and 1st.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending how you are looking at it, the jump is even bigger. If you make the top 3, you will win 33% of the prize pool on average (since you can still finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd).

The jump from 2nd to 1st is always worth 20%.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In any case, my point is that the jump in prize money between 4th and 3rd is as big as the one between 2nd and 1st.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending how you are looking at it, the jump is even bigger. If you make the top 3, you will win 33% of the prize pool on average (since you can still finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd).

The jump from 2nd to 1st is always worth 20%.

[/ QUOTE ]

By that logic...the jump from 3rd to 2nd is almost as big as from 4th to 3rd...the chance of finishing first is 50% compared to 33% (a jump of 17%)...as opposed to 25% to 33% (a jump of only 8%).

By your logic, shouldn't this compensate for the difference in jump in % of prize pool?

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In any case, my point is that the jump in prize money between 4th and 3rd is as big as the one between 2nd and 1st.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending how you are looking at it, the jump is even bigger. If you make the top 3, you will win 33% of the prize pool on average (since you can still finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd).

The jump from 2nd to 1st is always worth 20%.

[/ QUOTE ]

By that logic...the jump from 3rd to 2nd is almost as big as from 4th to 3rd...the chance of finishing first is 50% compared to 33% (a jump of 17%)...as opposed to 25% to 33% (a jump of only 8%).

By your logic, shouldn't this compensate for the difference in jump in % of prize pool?

[/ QUOTE ]

Making it to the final 2 is worth 40% on average. ie (30% * .5) + (50% * .5)

The difference between finishing 3rd and making the final 2 is 20% (ie 40% - 20% for 3rd).

The difference between finishing 4th and making the final 3 is 33% (ie 33% - 0% for 4th).

Of course its never that simple because your chips counts are always different. Use the ICM to figure it out exactly.

My point was just that making it to the final 3 was worth much more than 20% of the prize pool (unless you always finish 3rd).

[sofere]

I don't think you'll get any arguments from anyone that finishing ITM in any place is far superior to finishing OTM. But I do see the point your trying to make (I think).

Playing first or nothing on the bubble is generally not a good strategy.

[squire]

thanks guys,
i do think i go into my shell a little in the bubble, maybe i need to push more hand ranges.
it just seems on the $11s people call with any rags or is this just me being scared of being 4th.
on several occasions i have folded premium hands just so i can limp into the money even if that makes me shortstack.
i will be more aggresive in the bubble
i will be more aggresive in the bubble
i will be more aggresive in the bubble
thanks again
squire.

[Ogre]

I dont know where but there is a link to a website that has the win percentage of a hand vs a random hand. Studying that might help you with pushing from the SB and Button.